Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo

mavtop ha scritto:
gilles i 30,70$ sono per il T+1 e T+2 attuale (ovviamente potremmo andare anche sopra quel valore), se vedi l'intermedio e' molto piu' sopra area 32 o > 33$ dipende come e' configurato l'annuale attuale (vecchio o nuovo T+6 e T+7)

Ovviamente sopra i 33$ ci sono praterie da esplorare :)
Clicca per allargare...

mi piacciono molto quelle praterie Mav...anche il Cocoa è alle prese con una resistenza importante a 2171...e anche lì...
 
Arabica’s Allure Returning for Roasters After Rout: Commodities
Isis AlmeidaMar 20, 2013 4:42 pm ET
(To get alerts for Commodities columns: SALT CMMKT <GO>)

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee roasters are poised to add more arabica beans to their blends at the expense of robusta as the two varieties’ relative cost narrows to a four-year low.

The gap between futures declined to 35.4 cents yesterday from $1.89 in May 2011. The switch takes several months and probably will start if the spread stays at 35 cents, said Rodrigo Costa, director of trading at Caturra Coffee Corp. in Elmsford, New York. Arabica will average $1.57 in the fourth quarter, 18 percent more than now, as robusta drops 3.6 percent to $2,075 a metric ton (94 cents a pound), the medians of as many as six analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show.

Robusta’s market share advanced to 46 percent last season, the most since at least 2006-2007, Macquarie Group Ltd. estimates. Shrinking economies drove demand for cheaper blends and arabica rose to the costliest in 14 years in 2011 after Colombia, the second-biggest arabica grower, reaped its smallest harvest in more than three decades. Robusta gained 12 percent this year as drought threatens the next crop in Vietnam, the largest robusta shipper, as arabica dropped 7.1 percent on prospects for rebounding supply.

“What happened to coffee blends in the past two years, with more robusta usage, was a direct result of high arabica prices and lower consumer spending,” said Costa. “It’s much simpler to switch to arabica than to robusta because it’s a higher-quality product.”

Agriculture Index

Arabica fell to $1.336 a pound this year on ICE Futures U.S. in New York, after plunging 37 percent in 2012. Robusta advanced to $2,152 on NYSE Liffe in London, after adding 6.3 percent last year. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Agriculture Index of eight commodities was up 0.3 percent this year, and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities advanced 5.8 percent. Treasuries lost 0.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.

A 35-cent spread in futures would imply price parity in some physical markets, according to Costa. Some lower-grade arabica is cheaper than locally-produced robusta in Brazil, according to Winterthur, Switzerland-based Volcafe.

Consumption of arabica will climb 3 percent in 2013-14, after being stable this season and sliding 5 percent a year earlier, according to Volcafe, a unit of ED&F Man Holdings Ltd. Robusta demand will gain 3 percent, from 6 percent this season and 15 percent a year earlier.

Arabica is grown mostly in Latin America and favored for specialty drinks, while robusta comes mainly from Asia and parts of Africa and is used in instant coffee and espresso. Roasters use both beans in some blends.

Maxwell House

The slump in arabica is helping consumers, with J.M. Smucker Co. and Kraft Foods Inc. cutting U.S. prices by 6 percent last month on their Folgers and Maxwell House brands. Global retail coffee sales will be a record $79.6 billion in 2013, from $75.8 billion last year, according to Euromonitor International, a consumer research company in London.

Production of all varieties of coffee will rise 6.4 percent to a record 144.6 million bags in the season that started Oct. 1, according to the International Coffee Organization in London. Arabica will account for 88.8 million bags, or 61 percent of the total, the ICO estimates. A bag of coffee weighs 132 pounds.

Just as the switch to a higher ratio of robusta in blends took two years to develop, so the reverse is likely to take more than one season. The premium, which closed today at 36 cents, will need to stay at 35 cents to 40 cents for one or two quarters before roasters make significant changes to blends, said Costa of Caturra Coffee.

Fungal Disease

Demand for robusta will be partly sustained by preferences in emerging markets including Brazil and Russia, where buyers tend to favor instant coffee or cheaper blends that contain more robusta, according to Mauricio Galindo, the head of operations at the ICO, which has about 70 member nations. Consumption in emerging markets grew an average of 3.9 percent a year in the past decade, compared with 1.1 percent in developed nations, ICO data show.

The anticipated rebound in arabica supply is threatened by the spread of leaf rust in Central America and Mexico. The fungal disease is present on about 70 percent of farms in Guatemala and the nation needs $100 million to fight it, according to Ricardo Villanueva, president of the ICO’s private sector committee. Slumping prices curbed growers’ funds to limit the impact of the outbreak, ICO Executive Director Roberio Silva told reporters in London on March 8.

Robusta output is also threatened and greater-than-expected damage from drought may curb the retreat in prices anticipated in the Bloomberg survey. The harvest in Vietnam may plunge as much as 30 percent to an eight-year low in 2013-14 because of a lack of rain in the main growing regions, according to the median of eight trader and shipper estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Buying Decisions

Faster global growth should boost demand for arabica, said Andrea Illy, chief executive officer of Illycaffe SpA, which sells coffee in 140 countries. The International Monetary Fund expects the world economy to expand 3.5 percent this year, from 3.2 percent in 2012. The U.S., the biggest coffee consumer, will accelerate from the third quarter and in each of the following three quarters, according to estimates from as many as 84 economists compiled by Bloomberg.

“When you have economic crisis, all the roasters tend to trade down the bulk of their production,” Illy said an interview in London. “When you have better economic conditions and better prices of coffee, roasters tend to go back and increase the arabica percentage in their blends.”

Brazil Harvest

Brazil will harvest 47 million to 48 million bags in 2013, a record for a year in which trees enter the lower-yielding half of a two-year cycle, according to Cooparaiso, a growers’ cooperative. Colombian output will expand 30 percent to 10 million bags this year, according to the National Federation of Coffee Growers.

At a time of rising Colombian supply, “certainly roasters would consider to some degree going back to using arabica in their blends,” said Galindo of the ICO. “I have a hard time imagining that if the supply of fine arabicas was there to a greater extent, there wouldn’t be demand.”
 
COFFEE
cioè, mi scappa da ridere mentre lo penso, ma facciamo attenzione, RSI e differenziale con Robusta a 36 cents...
 
Sugar Future

SOTTOSTANTE:
Ricordo che la situazione attuale sullo sugar e' quella che un nuovo annuale e' iniziato il 4-giugno-2012 e sara' un annuale al ribasso, infatti il suo 1o T+3 e' stato al ribasso "obbligando" i successivi ad essere al ribasso per far parte dell'annuale in corso.
Clicca per allargare...
Ci troviamo nel 3o T+3 precisamente nel 3o Tracy del 2o T+1 del 3o mensile.

Questo T+1 non permette cicli T-1 al rialzo, se cio' accadesse, consideremmo iniziato un nuovo ciclo T+1 e quasi sicuramente un nuovo ciclo T+2.

Infatti con il T-1 al ribasso dopo 16gg di vita considero il mensile in inversione e quindi andante in chiusura (anche se di tempo ne ha ancora).

Il minimo attuale del mensile e' 17,67$ minimo che DEVE essere ritoccato per consentire a questo mensile di far parte dell'intermedio attuale.

INVERSO:

L'inverso invece si trova nel 2o mensile che si e' girato al ribasso configurando un T-1 ribassista dopo 18gg di vita (e che potrebbe essersi concluso il 15 marzo).

Rimaniamo in attesa della conferma sulla chiusura del mensile (che non ammette un T-1 al rialzo).

Il bottom dell'inverso a 19,12$ corrisponderebbe al TOP del mensile sul sottostante.

Cosa mi aspetto ?

Tra oggi e domani la chiusura del T-1 sull'inverso e successivamente entro il 25 marzo la chiusura del Tracy sul sottostante che ci dira' (avendo un vincolo ribassista) se il mensile attuale fa parte o meno dell'intermedio in corso.

Ovviamente un nuovo TOP sul sottostante indicherebbe che ci troviamo in un nuovo T+2 (non ammesso un nuovo TOP dopo che mensile ha invertito la rotta).



 
COFFEE SOAP OPERA
Coffee joins list of crops facing Brazil hold-ups
Rabobank added coffee to the list of crops for which export supplies stand to be squeezed by Brazil's logistical bottlenecks, as the line-up of ships waiting to load at the port of Paranagua passed 100.

The bank, restating a forecast of New York arabica coffee futures averaging 160 cents a pound at the last quarter of the year, 13% more than the December contract is pricing in, named Brazil's infrastructure hiccups among reasons to expect a rally.

"Logistical constraints will likely hamper Brazil's ability to export coffee and is supportive of prices as the country contends with striking port workers and large grain and sugar crops," the bank said.

The comments came as it was revealed that the number of ships waiting at Paranagua, Brazil's second largest port, which handles some coffee as well as the likes of corn and soybeans, had reached 100, and with more boats on their way.

While Brazil, whose crop exports begin to ramp up from February-March with soybean and main-crop corn harvests, has a history of port hold-ups, the queue of ships did not reach 100 last year until June.
 
MARKET UPDATE - GRAINS - SOFTS


Judy Crawford of Zaner - IF - Thu Mar 21, 5:15PM CDT


MARKET UPDATE
JUDY CRAWFORD
TRADES FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 22, 2013
888-301-8120
jcrawford@zaner.com
​
Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge and financial resources.

GENERAL COMMENT:
The markets continue to not offer much in the way of trades. I am sure the situation in Cyprus has something to do with it. The banks were supposed to open today. Instead that has been postponed until next Tuesday. Russia has billions in the Cyprus banks and they may bail out Cyprus. They have been negotiating. Either way this is not good for Euroland and for that reason I am willing to try to short the eurofx, and only the mini contract. Other than that, most markets just do not have sufficient criteria either way to warrant a trade.

GRAINS: Near term they are becoming technically more positive even though their long term charts continue to be negative in nature. See individual comments below. That suggests to me that they could have more rally in them. Here are some projections:
Corn: 750.
Wheat: 750 to 775.
Beans: 1475.
Meal: 430.00.
Bean oil: 50.85 to 51.00.

GRAINS:
MAY CORN: It rallied over the 200 dma on Tuesday and has held that gain since. Today's high 734 1/2. If this rally can follow through, it could reach 750. Has this changed anything long term? On the monthly chart, no. In fact it is getting close to resistance. On the weekly chart, however, it is over the 20 and 10 dma for the first time in a long time. That is positive and suggests to me that this rally has more potential and confirms the potential to 750. Closed 568 1/2, up 1 1/2.
MAYMINI WHEAT: Stops were reached on Wednesday. On the daily chart the rally stopped at the high end of the Bollinger band yesterday. It has started to sell off. This is what concerned me about trying to short it again. It rallied over resistance yesterday on the daily chart that comes in at 725. It has been trying to get over that since last month. It now has a decent base under it to support it. Plus the weekly has become more positive. I prefer to watch. Closed 728 3/4, down 7 1/4.
Position: Short 708 (3.18). Exit 725 1/2 (3.20). Loss $230 (+comm./fees).

MAY MINI BEANS: They are back over their 100 & 200 dma on the daily chart. If they can hold that gain there should be more to this rally. When they have done this before on two separate occasions, they tried for 1475 to 1500. On the weekly chart they are pushing over both the 20 & 10 dma. That is positive. Closed 1449, up 29 1/4.
MAY MEAL: Like beans they rallied over both the 200 & 100 dma today on the daily chart. Unlike beans, they do not look that great on the weekly chart. I see more to this rally too. Closed 422.90, up 9.10.
MAY BEAN OIL: For the first time in over a week bean oil has finally rallied over the 50.00 resistance. That is positive. It should now try for 50.87 to 51.00. On the monthly chart bean oil will reach heavy resistance around 51.60. The weekly shows resistance at 51.00. Since that corresponds to the daily resistance that area will probably slow down this rally a lot. Just watching. Closed 50.42, up 58.




SOFTS:
MAY COTTON: It attempted to hold 90.00 for several days and finally sold off under it yesterday. It formed an outside day and that technical formation triggered a sell today. There has not been much follow through. What is important is that during the entire rally that topped recently, all sell offs held at the 10 dma before resuming the rally. It did not do so yesterday and today it traded under that average. Normally when a market violates that average, if it has been its pattern to hold it consistently, it usually means it is headed for the 20 dma which is below it. Right now that intersects at 87.00. If it can reach that price, that could be an area to watch for a possible buy? Watching closely. Closed 88.20, down .90.
MAY ORANGE JUICE: It started to sell off yesterday and reached 133.05. Today it rallied and formed an inside day. This is a tough market right now. The charts are not really clear. It is in an uptrend but on all charts it is in resistance. Have we seen the sell off before rallying higher? I cannot really tell. The previous sell off on the daily chart was more than what we have seen currently. I think it is best to just watch. It could go either way. Closed 137.55, up 2.40.
MAY COFFEE: You would think that after all the selling this market has done that it could show more enthusiasm for a rally than what it has shown the last two days. I still see a projection to 125.00 as mentioned in my last Update. Just watching. Closed 133.75, up .15.
MAYCOCOA: Stops were reached on Wednesday. It has continued to rally and reached the high end of the Bollinger band today at 21.86. That is also market resistance going back to late January. But this current rally appears to be the second wave up since the March 7 low. If so, its projection is to 22.15 approximately. Has this rally changed anything long term? The only thing of note is that it is now forming a key reversal bottom on the monthly chart. The last time it did so last June, it rallied to 27.07 before selling off again. At that time it was the 20 dma that finally stopped the rally. Right now it has the 100 dma intersecting at 23.10, the 10 dma at 23.40 and 20 dma st 23.68. Just watching. Closed 21.66, up .14.
Position: Short 21.11 (3.15). Exit 21.25 (3.20).
MAY SUGAR: It was attempting to hold at the 20 dma earlier this week. That changed today. It failed that average today. The monthly chart is not showing much. On the weekly sugar's effort to rally over the 20 dma has failed again. If it follows through it should reach 17.75 at least. Just watching. Closed 18.21, down .14.


MARKET UPDATE - GRAINS, MEATS, SOFTS
 
Ultima modifica:
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo
Risposte
0
Visite
502
kingbaby312

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Alto