gilles1
Forumer storico
Silver: l'incrocio medie non perdona anche oggi
ottimo!
Spazio di prova, 2° capitolo
- Creatore Discussione impa_ro
- Data di Inizio
ottimo!
fenice78
Forumer storico
Occhio però perchè quello è H1...mentre questo è H4..che ha range più ampio quando arriva....
Ultima modifica:
gilles1
Forumer storico
Occhio però perchè quello è H1...mentre questo è H4..che ha range più ampio quando arriva....
si Kata
incrementare i long sopra 27.80 chiusura daily
shortare sotto 27.40
mavtop
Forumer storico
Crude Oil Future
SOTTOSTANTE:
1a ipotesi) 3o T+3 al ribasso, non sorpassiamo i 98,24$ e mensile attuale al ribasso
2a ipotesi) nuovo T+4, sorpassiamo i 98,24$ o mensile al rialzo
Da allora siamo entrati in un nuovo ciclo T+1 che se vorra' far parte del mensile attuale dovra' assumere connotati ribassisti e scendere sotto 91,91$ (minimo del mensile attuale).
Ovviamente un nuovo massimo sopra 97,80$ invaliderebbe l'ipotesi precedente e ci confermerebbe invece la nascita di in un nuovo T+2.
INVERSO:
Il tracy iniziato sta andando a conclusione entro oggi, per ora non abbiamo nessun vincolo.
Ovviamente il mensile andra' al ribasso scendendo (salendo sul sottostante) sotto (sopra sul sottostante) 97,80$ e girera' il T+3 ed il T+4 inverso al ribasso sotto (sopra sul sottostante) 98,24$.
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Entro oggi la chiusura del Tracy inverso e successivamente quella sul sottostante che potrebbe scendere sotto i 91,91$ a conferma che il T+1 sul sottostante fa parte del mensile attuale.
Occhio alle swing specialmente quelle rialziste poiche' la loro rottura aprirebbe le porte ad una nuova fase LONG.
SOTTOSTANTE:
Ricapitolo il tutto, ecco le nuove ipotesi:
1a ipotesi) 3o T+3 al ribasso, non sorpassiamo i 98,24$ e mensile attuale al ribasso
2a ipotesi) nuovo T+4, sorpassiamo i 98,24$ o mensile al rialzo
Dopo 19gg di vita il mensile attuale ha invertito la rotta (t-1 al ribasso) ed ha chiuso il 2o T+1 dopo soli 10gg di vita.
Da allora siamo entrati in un nuovo ciclo T+1 che se vorra' far parte del mensile attuale dovra' assumere connotati ribassisti e scendere sotto 91,91$ (minimo del mensile attuale).
Ovviamente un nuovo massimo sopra 97,80$ invaliderebbe l'ipotesi precedente e ci confermerebbe invece la nascita di in un nuovo T+2.
INVERSO:
Il tracy iniziato sta andando a conclusione entro oggi, per ora non abbiamo nessun vincolo.
Ovviamente il mensile andra' al ribasso scendendo (salendo sul sottostante) sotto (sopra sul sottostante) 97,80$ e girera' il T+3 ed il T+4 inverso al ribasso sotto (sopra sul sottostante) 98,24$.
Cosa mi aspetto ?
Entro oggi la chiusura del Tracy inverso e successivamente quella sul sottostante che potrebbe scendere sotto i 91,91$ a conferma che il T+1 sul sottostante fa parte del mensile attuale.
Occhio alle swing specialmente quelle rialziste poiche' la loro rottura aprirebbe le porte ad una nuova fase LONG.
mavtop
Forumer storico
occhio che c è un H&S con tg 86.76
Mi sembra congruo, la mia MM diceva intorno agli 85$
gilles1
Forumer storico
COFFEE
11th. April, 2013
The National Coffee Council in El Salvador have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of March were 22,795 bags or 15.02% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 129,011 bags. This low volume has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first six months of the present October 2012 to September 2013 coffee year being 49,994 bags or 8.62% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 530,114 bags.
Meanwhile the National Coffee Council in El Salvador that had prior to the issues of Roya forecasted a 25% larger new crop to follow the relatively dismal weather affected 2011/2012 crop which would have been related to increased export volumes for this present coffee year, are now reporting that this new crop that has just been completed can now be expected to be 7.6% lower than the past crop, at a total of only 1.34 million bags. This report might be partially market manipulative in nature, but with an estimated 62% of the coffee farms in El Salvador suffering from Roya or Leaf Rust, there has to be some reality to the fact that this recent harvest must have experienced relatively severe damage and more so than most of the other producers in the region.
11th. April, 2013
The National Coffee Council in El Salvador have reported that the countries coffee exports for the month of March were 22,795 bags or 15.02% lower than the same month last year, at a total of 129,011 bags. This low volume has contributed to the countries cumulative exports for the first six months of the present October 2012 to September 2013 coffee year being 49,994 bags or 8.62% lower than the same period in the previous coffee year, at a total of 530,114 bags.
Meanwhile the National Coffee Council in El Salvador that had prior to the issues of Roya forecasted a 25% larger new crop to follow the relatively dismal weather affected 2011/2012 crop which would have been related to increased export volumes for this present coffee year, are now reporting that this new crop that has just been completed can now be expected to be 7.6% lower than the past crop, at a total of only 1.34 million bags. This report might be partially market manipulative in nature, but with an estimated 62% of the coffee farms in El Salvador suffering from Roya or Leaf Rust, there has to be some reality to the fact that this recent harvest must have experienced relatively severe damage and more so than most of the other producers in the region.
gilles1
Forumer storico
Deutsche Bank sees sugar a “compelling risk”
Published: 04/09/2013, 4:18:49 PM
Deutsche Bank recommended investors buy into the "compelling" sugar market, which could offer gains of 25%, according to Agrimoney.
The bank joined the growth band of commentators, including Commerzbank and Phillip Futures, to caution over the gloom over raw sugar futures, which stood at 17.66 cents a pound at 07:00 New York time (12:00 UK time), within an ace of the two-year low of 17.47 cents a pound reached last week.
Expectations of sizeable production in Brazil, which is beginning its 2013-14 crushing season, may prove unfounded if weather delays the cane harvest, with the limited surplus of processing capacity limiting mills' ability to catch-up on losses later in the year.
"Any Brazilian production lost early on to rains will not be seen this crop year," Deutsche Bank said, estimating the country's cane harvest at 585m tonnes, well below some other estimates of a crop of 600m-tonnes plus.
Furthermore, the removal of the so-called Pis-Cofins tax this month "has the potential to increase [ethanol] economics, prompting producers to maximise[ethanol] production during July and August", rather than switching their cane processing towards making sugar.
"Moreover, the possibility of a gasoline price hike exists," which would enable higher ethanol values, and again tempt mills to turn more cane into biofuel rather than sweeteners.
"Despite the anticipated global surplus this year and next, we believe the risk-reward for sugar is compelling," the bank said, foreseeing prices as treading a range of 17-22 cents a pound, and recommending a purchase of front-month sugar futures.
The forecast factored in a breakeven cost of 18.40 cents a pound below which it becomes more attractive to produce hydrous ethanol than sugar, and 19.59 cents a pound for anhydrous ethanol.
Published: 04/09/2013, 4:18:49 PM
Deutsche Bank recommended investors buy into the "compelling" sugar market, which could offer gains of 25%, according to Agrimoney.
The bank joined the growth band of commentators, including Commerzbank and Phillip Futures, to caution over the gloom over raw sugar futures, which stood at 17.66 cents a pound at 07:00 New York time (12:00 UK time), within an ace of the two-year low of 17.47 cents a pound reached last week.
Expectations of sizeable production in Brazil, which is beginning its 2013-14 crushing season, may prove unfounded if weather delays the cane harvest, with the limited surplus of processing capacity limiting mills' ability to catch-up on losses later in the year.
"Any Brazilian production lost early on to rains will not be seen this crop year," Deutsche Bank said, estimating the country's cane harvest at 585m tonnes, well below some other estimates of a crop of 600m-tonnes plus.
Furthermore, the removal of the so-called Pis-Cofins tax this month "has the potential to increase [ethanol] economics, prompting producers to maximise[ethanol] production during July and August", rather than switching their cane processing towards making sugar.
"Moreover, the possibility of a gasoline price hike exists," which would enable higher ethanol values, and again tempt mills to turn more cane into biofuel rather than sweeteners.
"Despite the anticipated global surplus this year and next, we believe the risk-reward for sugar is compelling," the bank said, foreseeing prices as treading a range of 17-22 cents a pound, and recommending a purchase of front-month sugar futures.
The forecast factored in a breakeven cost of 18.40 cents a pound below which it becomes more attractive to produce hydrous ethanol than sugar, and 19.59 cents a pound for anhydrous ethanol.