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Australian Dollar Strengthens as Commodity Price Slide Halts
May 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar rose versus its U.S. counterpart, snapping a three-day loss, after a halt in the biggest price slide in 25 years of metals the country exports.
The currency rebounded from a three-week low following gains yesterday in the price of copper, zinc and aluminum, while gold stabilized after a 7.6 percent drop last week. Australia's dollar last week had the first weekly loss in two months as the Reuters/Jefferies index of 19 commodities futures plunged the most since 1980. Exports of raw materials account for more than 10 percent of the nation's economic growth.
``The Australian dollar will resume its upward march,'' said Stephen Miller, a portfolio manager at Merrill Lynch Investment Managers in Sydney.
``We're convinced of the medium- term veracity of the commodity story.''
Australia's currency rose as high as 75.48 U.S. cents before trading at 75.24 cents as of 2:21 p.m. in Sydney from 74.98 cents in late Asian trade yesterday, when it reached 74.67 cents, the lowest since April 27.
The currency, up 2.7 percent this year, will reach 80 cents in the next three to six months, Miller forecast.
The Reuters/Jefferies index yesterday rose 1.6 percent, the biggest gain since April 18. Prices of raw materials slumped 5.4 percent last week on concern rising global interest rates will slow economic growth and demand for commodities.
Interest-rate futures show traders are pricing in about a 56 percent chance the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark to 5.25 percent from 5 percent at its next meeting on June 29. Investors expect the European Central Bank to raise the key lending rate by 75 basis points this year, futures indicate. The Bank of Japan may lift borrowing costs for the first time in almost six years as soon as July, economists predict.
`Mild Bounce'
Overseas shipments of commodities account for 60 percent of the nation's exports, so the currency is typically influenced by fluctuations in metals prices.
Australia is the world's second-largest miner of gold, which for immediate delivery today rose as much as 1.2 percent to $663.80 an ounce. The precious metal has risen 58 percent in the past year.
``A mild bounce in base metals will help the Australian dollar,'' said Richard Grace, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. ``I remain confident of our longer-term forecast for a higher Australian dollar.''
Commonwealth Bank, Australia's second-largest lender, forecasts the Australian dollar at 79 cents by year-end.
`Fair Weather Sailor'
The currency traded at a 16-month low versus the euro and British pound as slumping shares and last week's decline in commodities spurred some traders to invest in less risky assets.
Australia's currency slid to 0.5854 euros from 0.5874 euros yesterday when it dropped 1.5 percent. It traded at 39.96 British pence, unchanged from yesterday.
``The Australian dollar is a fair-weather sailor and is not a currency that does well in times of uncertainty,'' said Joanne Masters, a currency strategist at Macquarie Bank Ltd. in Sydney. ``The medium-term story is still very valid for the Australian dollar.''
Australian government bonds rose, pushing down the yield of the benchmark 10-year bond 2 basis points to a two-week low of 5.69 percent. The price of the 6 percent bond maturing in February 2017 rose 0.1856, or A$1.86 per A$1,000 face amount, to 102.494. Bond yields move inversely to price.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Chris Young in Sydney at
cyoung12@bloomberg.net.