Rating Action
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6 min read
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13 Oct 2025
Moody's Ratings
Frankfurt am Main, October 13, 2025 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today affirmed the Baa1 long term issuer and senior unsecured ratings, the (P)Baa1 senior unsecured EMTN program rating and the Baa3 junior subordinate ratings of Grand City Properties S.A. (Grand City, the company or GCP). The outlook was changed to stable from negative.
RATINGS RATIONALE
The outlook change to stable from negative reflects Grand City's robust credit metrics, which have exceeded our expectations as of H1 2025. This outperformance is supported by solid earnings growth with low vacancy rates, ongoing deleveraging efforts, and a gradual recovery in German multifamily residential property values. The company's financial strategy, emphasizing cash preservation amid rising interest rates, has supported the stability of its credit metrics.
Despite our prior concerns that the relatively weaker credit quality of Aroundtown[1] —GCP's majority shareholder with a 62% stake—could adversely affect GCP's financial strategy, the company's credit profile has remained sound. This is largely attributable to GCP's prudent liquidity risk management and effective refinancing strategy.
As of June 2025, Moody's-adjusted gross debt to assets stood at approximately 43%. We expect this ratio to improve further, approaching 40% over the next 12–18 months, supported by the company's sizeable cash reserve that is partly earmarked for debt repayments in 2026.
GCP's strong liquidity position and balanced financial strategy continue to underpin the Baa1 ratings, even as the company plans to resume growth investments at a moderate pace. Additionally, Grand City's renewed access to unsecured debt markets at economically efficient terms provides flexibility to manage upcoming refinancing needs—including the next perpetual call date in mid-2026—while preserving its unencumbered asset base.
Nevertheless, Grand City will face some pressure on its fixed charge coverage ratio due to a significantly higher marginal cost of debt compared to the low-coupon maturities scheduled over the next 12 to 24 months. This industry-wide trend is partially offset by solid earnings in the German residential sector. Accordingly, we expect the interest coverage ratio (ICR) to remain in line with rating guidance, between 3.5x and 4.0x over the next 12–24 months. This will be further supported by modest further debt reduction and selective asset disposals.
RATIONALE FOR THE OUTLOOK
The outlook stabilization reflects our expectation that GCP will maintain a prudent financial policy and sound liquidity risk management, alongside adequate corporate governance that protects its standalone financial strength despite the credit challenges faced by its majority shareholder.
We further expect Grand City to sustain strong operating performance and solid credit metrics, with sufficient headroom relative to our rating guidance.
Finally, the credit quality of the German multifamily residential sector is expected to be supported by a recovery in property valuations and favourable long-term fundamentals, particularly the persistent supply-demand imbalance, which continues to fuel robust rental growth and high occupancy levels.
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS
A rating upgrade could occur if Aroundtown's credit quality stabilizes and, on a stand-alone basis, Grand City continues to demonstrate:
• A consistent track record of no material cash leakage to its majority shareholder
• Strong operating performance, with a further reduction in vacancies and high rental growth
• Debt/gross assets sustained below 40%, accompanied by a corresponding trend in net debt/EBITDA, and a corresponding tightened financial policy
• Fixed-charge cover sustained well above 4x
• Maintenance of solid liquidity, including a high unencumbered asset pool
• Favourable outlook for the German residential property sector as a whole
Factors that could lead to a downgrade:
• Further deterioration of the credit quality of Aroundtown that increases the risk of material cash leakage at GCP
• Debt/gross assets sustained above 45%
• Fixed-charge cover sustained below 3x
• Further transitioning of the portfolio towards unregulated markets, with more immediate supply-and-demand responses to rental income and higher market value volatility
• Unfavourable changes in the outlook for the German residential property sector, either due to property value or regulation concerns
• Weakening operating performance (rental growth or vacancy rates)
LIQUIDITY
GCP maintains a strong liquidity position, with approximately €1.4 billion in cash on hand as of end-June 2025, complemented by a €200 million undrawn revolving credit facility (RCF) and a solid base of unencumbered assets. The company has no debt maturities for the remainder of 2025 and is well-positioned to cover maturities over the next 12 to 18 months using its existing liquidity.
Projected annual FFO of around €190 million (net of perpetual coupon payments) provides sufficient coverage for capital expenditures consistent with historical levels, as well as moderate discretionary outflows—including acquisitions and growth investments or potential shareholder distributions in line with its policy. These are expected to be partially offset by modest asset disposals over the next 12 to 24 months.
Approximately 95% of GCP's debt is either fixed-rate or hedged, offering flexibility in managing refinancing activities and mitigating interest rate risk. Like its investment-grade peers in the German multifamily residential sector, GCP benefits from access to secured debt within a stable domestic banking environment, which we view as a sector-wide credit strength.
GCP's debt arrangements include covenants set at varying thresholds, with current headroom remaining ample. We expect this cushion to persist.
PRINCIPAL METHODOLOGY
The principal methodology used in these ratings was REITs and Other Commercial Real Estate Firms published in May 2025 and available at
Ratings.Moodys.com. Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on
https://ratings.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.
The net effect of any adjustments applied to rating factor scores or scorecard outputs under the primary methodology(ies), if any, was not material to the ratings addressed in this announcement.
COMPANY PROFILE
Grand City Properties S.A. (GCP) is a publicly listed real estate company that owns, manages and acquires residential properties, mainly in Germany. As of June 2025, the company owned about 61,000 residential units, mainly located in the metropolitan areas of Berlin, North Rhine-Westphalia, Dresden, Leipzig, Halle, Nuremberg, Munich, Mannheim, Frankfurt, Bremen, Hamburg and London. The portfolio generates net rents of €422 million on an annualised basis.
GCP is registered in Luxembourg and is listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, with a market capitalisation of around €1.8 billion as of 23 September 2025.