- Abengoa: according to the Spanish newspaper El Confidencial, BAML, Citi and Société Générale have refused to underwrite the planned capital increase of EUR650m. As a result, bonds fell significantly yesterday while, according to Reuters last week, Credit Agricole, HSBC and Santander have agreed to standby underwrite the issue.
Since Abengoa announced its contemplated capital increase a month ago, the group has released nothing regarding the terms and conditions of the issue. In our focus dated 26 August, we highlighted the fact that there is substantial execution risk regarding the capital increase, given the collapse of ABG shares and therefore the size of the planned issue as a percentage of the current market capitalisation (about 75% at yesterday’s closing price) and the uncertain funding capability of Inversion Corporativa, Abengoa’s main shareholder. Some press reports relayed that a major investor from the Middle East may participate, but nothing has been confirmed yet. This morning’s release suggests that Inversion Corporativa may subcribe to about EUR130m if the capital increase is in class B shares, otherwise it would contribute less.
Clearly, the fact that BAML, Citi and Société Générale are not underwriting the rights issue is not good news. However, should Abengoa fail to execute this issue, we believe the group still has some options to raise liquidity in the short term, including the sale of further ABY shares and the disposal of more projects to Abengoa Yield.
Taking into consideration our recovery value for senior unsecured debt at about 40%, we keep our hold recommendation.