Obbligazioni societarie Abengoa XS0498817542 XS1048657800 XS1219438592 XS1113021031
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- Data di Inizio
whitesoul9
Forumer storico
FFunds | Fri Sep 18, 2015 9:18am EDT Related: M&A, BONDS, MARKETS, MUTUAL FUND CENTER
Blackstone denies it is studying investing in Spain's Abengoa
MADRID, SEPT 18
Blackstone is not looking at a possible investment in Spanish renewable energy company Abengoa, a spokesman for the investment fund said on Friday, denying an earlier media report.
Spanish financial newspaper Expansion said on Friday that the private equity firm, along with another U.S. fund, Cerberus Capital Management, was studying injecting capital in to Abengoa.
Cerberus did not respond to a request for a comment on the report. (Reporting by Jose Elias Rodriguez; Writing by Paul Day, Editing by Sarah White)
Blackstone denies it is studying investing in Spain's Abengoa
MADRID, SEPT 18
Blackstone is not looking at a possible investment in Spanish renewable energy company Abengoa, a spokesman for the investment fund said on Friday, denying an earlier media report.
Spanish financial newspaper Expansion said on Friday that the private equity firm, along with another U.S. fund, Cerberus Capital Management, was studying injecting capital in to Abengoa.
Cerberus did not respond to a request for a comment on the report. (Reporting by Jose Elias Rodriguez; Writing by Paul Day, Editing by Sarah White)
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
purtroppo con la news postata sotto da moorecat difficile se non impossibile impostare un adc
Fra41
Forumer storico
Se Abengoa fosse veramente a rischio S&P non affermerebbe il rating. Addirittura outlook stabile, neanche negativo.
Spain-Based Abengoa Rating Affirmed At 'B+' On Planned Rights Issue And Asset Disposals; Outlook Stable
11-Sep-2015 18:19 BST
We expect Spanish engineering and construction company Abengoa S.A. to proceed with its planned €650 million rights issue and asset disposal program to fund higher capital expenditure (capex) on projects in South America.
Higher capex has resulted in forecast credit metrics, specifically operating cash flows (OCF) to debt, which are significantly weaker than we expected. We are therefore revising Abengoa's financial risk profile to "highly leveraged" from "aggressive." We continue to view liquidity as "adequate."
We are affirming our 'B+' ratings on Abengoa.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Abengoa will continue to successfully execute projects and dispose of assets as management moves the business toward being asset-light.
On Sept. 11, 2015, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'B+' ratings on Spanish engineering and construction company Abengoa S.A. The outlook is stable.At the same time, we affirmed the 'B+' issue rating on the senior unsecured notes issued by Abengoa, Abengoa Finance S.A.U., and Abengoa Greenfield, S.A. The recovery rating on these notes remains unchanged at '4', indicating our expectation of average (30%-50%) recovery prospects for noteholders in the event of a payment default. Our recovery expectations are in the lower half of this range.The affirmation reflects our view that, despite revising its capex upward for fiscal 2015 (ending Dec. 31, 2015), Abengoa still exhibits "adequate" liquidity under our criteria. We note that management continues to press on with plans to raise funds and bolster liquidity via a €650 million rights issue and asset disposal program. Abengoa recently revised upward its capex projections for the remainder of fiscal 2015. This relates primarily to flagship projects in South America, where it has become more challenging for Abengoa to secure further tranches of nonrecourse debt finance to continue building. We understand that Abengoa has therefore decided to complete these projects with its own cash and then refinance the assets once they are operational; this is why it is undertaking credit-positive cash raising measures (including the rights issue and asset disposals).On the other hand, the higher capex has weakened Abengoa's ratios--specifically OCF to debt--much more than we had previously assumed. This is why we are revising the financial risk profile to "highly leveraged" from "aggressive." We continue to assess Abengoa's business risk as "fair," despite the fact that we exclude the concession business. Our view of Abengoa's competitive position also benefits from reputed technical abilities and proprietary technology, especially in the solar power generation business.We assess Abengoa's management and governance as "fair." Management continues to execute and deliver on numerous initiatives as it works toward a more asset-light business model. However, we note that its communication with the investor community has been poor in the past. We continue to view Abengoa's corporate structure as complex.Our base case assumes: Muted 1% economic growth in the eurozone, where the group generates 25% of its total revenues, but stronger growth in the U.S. of 2.4% and in Asia-Pacific of 5.7%.
A strong E&C backlog of €8.6 billion (2x of 2014 division revenues) and increasing revenues from the concession business, albeit partially offset by muted performance of the Bioenergy segment.
Corporate EBITDA to €0.9 billion-€0.95 billion in 2015.
Based on these assumptions, we arrive at the following core credit measures, which are on the border of the "aggressive" and "highly leveraged" financial risk profile categoriesebt to EBITDA of just less than 5x.
Funds from operations (FFO) to debt of 11%-12%.
The stable outlook reflects our view that Abengoa will continue to successfully execute projects and dispose of assets as management moves toward an "asset light" business model.We consider ratings upside to be limited at this stage given the element of execution risk associated with the planned €650 million rights issue and asset sales. Also, increased capex and significantly negative OCF to debt means that the group's financial risk profile will likely remain "highly leveraged" for the next 12-18 months. We are also mindful that project funding conditions in some of Abengoa's key markets, such as Brazil, have become tougher and that this trend may continue over the medium term.Absent the completion either of the rights issue or the planned asset sales, Abengoa's liquidity will come under pressure just after our 12-month rating horizon. In this case, we could lower our ratings on the group. We could also consider a downgrade if the group were to financially support any concession assets.We could also lower the rating if future working capital demands and/or capex rose higher than our base case, resulting in Abengoa's liquidity position weakening to "less than adequate".
Anche MS è uscito l'altro giorno con un report abbastanza ottimista su Abengoa. Qui la liquidità è adequate. Boh
Ultima modifica:
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Perché anche ? Chi altro?
Fra41
Forumer storico
Posto un contributo di Sharleenandrea:
Ecco un estratto della nota di MS, è datata 15 settembre:
CDS curve has flattened
Over the past two weeks Abengoa’s CDS curve has flattened further. In general the shorts seem to read in the appointment of Lazard and in the passing of time signals that the company is struggling to muster support for the capital increase and it is Credit Trading Desk Analyst already looking at restructuring options for its debt. On the other hand, the longs seem persuaded that the time that is taking to get to an announcement is a sign that management is working to a larger deal than originally envisaged, possibly involving
strategic investors in the equity such as sovereign wealth funds.
Lazard’s appointment is not as scary as passing of time, in my view
Personally I tend to consider the passing of time more of a negative than the
appointment of Lazard. The company has explicitly said Lazard has not been Sector: Industrial appointed to look at options for the capital structure and I believe that Lazard’s track record in Spanish restructuring is relatively limited. I think the appointment of Lazard is probably meant to facilitate the negotiation amongst the controlling shareholder and the banks which might be willing to underwrite the new equity.
I think a rights issue is still more likely than not
I see the long time to get to a dénouement as sign that Inversion Corporativa is probably resisting some of the demands around asset sales and changes in corporate governance that a prospective underwriter which is also exposed to Abengoa through long term unsecured debt would be expected to ask. Having said that, I think the controlling shareholder ultimately has little bargaining power vis-à-vis the potential underwriters given it would likely be wiped out if Abengoa had to file for insolvency. This last point makes me think that overall the probabilities are somewhat skewed towards a favourable outcome.
CDS is pricing in too low of a recovery, in my view
With the 5Yr CDS now trading close to 70 points upfront, the curve seems to price in extremely low recoveries (15c or less). This looks odd considered that the 2019 convertible is quoted at 40/45 and that this bond is commonly thought to be the CTD (possibly this is still lacking upstream guarantees – although Abengoa S.A. has claims towards other group companies for almost EUR 12bn at the end of June of this year). Pricing in a recovery of about 15c is also like saying that liquidation is the only possible outcome of restructuring, which I think is not necessarily true.
Ecco un estratto della nota di MS, è datata 15 settembre:
CDS curve has flattened
Over the past two weeks Abengoa’s CDS curve has flattened further. In general the shorts seem to read in the appointment of Lazard and in the passing of time signals that the company is struggling to muster support for the capital increase and it is Credit Trading Desk Analyst already looking at restructuring options for its debt. On the other hand, the longs seem persuaded that the time that is taking to get to an announcement is a sign that management is working to a larger deal than originally envisaged, possibly involving
strategic investors in the equity such as sovereign wealth funds.
Lazard’s appointment is not as scary as passing of time, in my view
Personally I tend to consider the passing of time more of a negative than the
appointment of Lazard. The company has explicitly said Lazard has not been Sector: Industrial appointed to look at options for the capital structure and I believe that Lazard’s track record in Spanish restructuring is relatively limited. I think the appointment of Lazard is probably meant to facilitate the negotiation amongst the controlling shareholder and the banks which might be willing to underwrite the new equity.
I think a rights issue is still more likely than not
I see the long time to get to a dénouement as sign that Inversion Corporativa is probably resisting some of the demands around asset sales and changes in corporate governance that a prospective underwriter which is also exposed to Abengoa through long term unsecured debt would be expected to ask. Having said that, I think the controlling shareholder ultimately has little bargaining power vis-à-vis the potential underwriters given it would likely be wiped out if Abengoa had to file for insolvency. This last point makes me think that overall the probabilities are somewhat skewed towards a favourable outcome.
CDS is pricing in too low of a recovery, in my view
With the 5Yr CDS now trading close to 70 points upfront, the curve seems to price in extremely low recoveries (15c or less). This looks odd considered that the 2019 convertible is quoted at 40/45 and that this bond is commonly thought to be the CTD (possibly this is still lacking upstream guarantees – although Abengoa S.A. has claims towards other group companies for almost EUR 12bn at the end of June of this year). Pricing in a recovery of about 15c is also like saying that liquidation is the only possible outcome of restructuring, which I think is not necessarily true.
Fra41
Forumer storico
Scusa era Morgan Stanley
Magician
Forumer attivo
Copio un mio intervento in un altro forum.
Abengoa fa litigare S&P e Moody.
Una delle rare occasioni in cui i giudizi sono nettamente discordanti. Se S&P abbiamo visto ieri è possibilista, Moody vede nel continuo perdere tempo un rischio elevato.
Personalmente aspetto di vedere chi e come mette i soldi per salvare una baracca che è tecnicamente appetibile, ma finanziariamente in bilico.
Moody’s yesterday released an update on its ongoing rating review of Abengoa’s B2 rating.
Moody’s notes that the downgrade risk has increased given that “execution risks on the company’s [EUR 650mn capital increase] plan are high, and that a timely execution of the measures is getting increasingly challenging”, as, so far, Abengoa has not been able to secure underwriting for the capital increase and, hence, no EGM invitations have yet been sent out to actually approve the capital increase (which was announced on 3 August).
Moody’s is, thus, taking a more cautious approach compared to S&P, which, for its B+/stable rating affirmation on Monday, simply assumed a successful capital increase and execution of the targeted EUR 500mn in asset disposals.
While S&P also acknowledged a weaker financial risk profile, it applied a positive uplift (comparable rating modifier) due to Abengoa’s credit metrics (S&P-adj. debt/EBITDA and FFO/debt) remaining “at the very top” of the “highly levered” range in order to keep the rating and outlook stable.
Moody’s, however, warns that the announced measures/magnitude of Abengoa’s liquidity improvement plans, including the capital increase, might actually not be sufficient to defend the B2 rating given the risk of “additional substantial negative operating cash flow in the current quarter” and leverage remaining well-above Moody’s expectations (Moody’s adj. 7.7x gross corporate leverage as of end-1H15 vs. 6.0x-7.0x expected for the B2 rating).
Consequently, a downgrade at Moody’s by at least one notch looks likely, even with a successful execution of the capital increase.
While it is, in our view, currently impossible from the outside to estimate the outcome of the current negotiations between banks and Abengoa regarding the capital increase with a reasonable degree of confidence, we would argue that rating downgrades (to low single B or even lower) continue to matter for a company with roughly EUR 10bn of consolidated gross debt and ongoing refinancing needs, even after an uncertain capital increase.
While the Moody’s update will not have an impact on ABGSM bonds today, as spreads remain driven by the progress on the capital increase in the short term
Abengoa fa litigare S&P e Moody.
Una delle rare occasioni in cui i giudizi sono nettamente discordanti. Se S&P abbiamo visto ieri è possibilista, Moody vede nel continuo perdere tempo un rischio elevato.
Personalmente aspetto di vedere chi e come mette i soldi per salvare una baracca che è tecnicamente appetibile, ma finanziariamente in bilico.
Moody’s yesterday released an update on its ongoing rating review of Abengoa’s B2 rating.
Moody’s notes that the downgrade risk has increased given that “execution risks on the company’s [EUR 650mn capital increase] plan are high, and that a timely execution of the measures is getting increasingly challenging”, as, so far, Abengoa has not been able to secure underwriting for the capital increase and, hence, no EGM invitations have yet been sent out to actually approve the capital increase (which was announced on 3 August).
Moody’s is, thus, taking a more cautious approach compared to S&P, which, for its B+/stable rating affirmation on Monday, simply assumed a successful capital increase and execution of the targeted EUR 500mn in asset disposals.
While S&P also acknowledged a weaker financial risk profile, it applied a positive uplift (comparable rating modifier) due to Abengoa’s credit metrics (S&P-adj. debt/EBITDA and FFO/debt) remaining “at the very top” of the “highly levered” range in order to keep the rating and outlook stable.
Moody’s, however, warns that the announced measures/magnitude of Abengoa’s liquidity improvement plans, including the capital increase, might actually not be sufficient to defend the B2 rating given the risk of “additional substantial negative operating cash flow in the current quarter” and leverage remaining well-above Moody’s expectations (Moody’s adj. 7.7x gross corporate leverage as of end-1H15 vs. 6.0x-7.0x expected for the B2 rating).
Consequently, a downgrade at Moody’s by at least one notch looks likely, even with a successful execution of the capital increase.
While it is, in our view, currently impossible from the outside to estimate the outcome of the current negotiations between banks and Abengoa regarding the capital increase with a reasonable degree of confidence, we would argue that rating downgrades (to low single B or even lower) continue to matter for a company with roughly EUR 10bn of consolidated gross debt and ongoing refinancing needs, even after an uncertain capital increase.
While the Moody’s update will not have an impact on ABGSM bonds today, as spreads remain driven by the progress on the capital increase in the short term
Fra41
Forumer storico
Batacazo en Abengoa: los acreedores ponen a la venta parte de su deuda a precio de derribo - elEconomista.es
Un fondo già smentisce la sua partecipazione . Però ancora non c'è nessuna smentita del preaccordo che aveva sottoscritto con il Santander & c. giusto?
Un fondo già smentisce la sua partecipazione . Però ancora non c'è nessuna smentita del preaccordo che aveva sottoscritto con il Santander & c. giusto?
