Obbligazioni societarie Anheuser-Busch InBev, Heineken, SABMiller, Carlsberg: the breweries.

[Imark]

La trimestrale non esaltante e l'outlook compartimentale debole di Pernod, che prevede stagnazione del mercato degli high spirits per almeno 12 mesi ed al contempo un robusto incremento del carico fiscale sugli alcolici a tagliare polpa nei margini, hanno effetti solo sul titolo azionario ma non paiono intaccare la performance dei bond se non marginalmente...

Il 7% Pernod Ricard 2015 (titolo HY, rating BB+) di recente emissione accusa una modestissima flessione.

Qualche info di maggiore dettaglio sui risultati in questa Bloomberg.

Pernod Falls After Forecasting Stagnant Demand, Higher Taxes

By Ladka Bauerova

Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Pernod Ricard SA, the world’s second-largest distiller, slid in Paris trading after indicating that weak demand for alcoholic drinks will persist through 2010, while its tax rate will be higher than some analysts expected.

Chief Executive Officer Pierre Pringuet said on a conference call today that he expects global stagnation for the spirits industry over the next 12 months. Pringuet also said results for the fiscal first half will look “unfavorable” when compared with the same period in 2008, before Pernod began suffering as U.S. wholesalers reduced their inventories.

Shares of Pernod, whose brands include Absolut vodka and Chivas Regal whisky, fell as much as 6.5 percent, even as the company posted full-year profit growth that surpassed analysts’ estimates. Pringuet said his priority was to keep reducing debt and “reinforce investments in key brands” in the recession.

“The environment will remain difficult, and the first-half comparables are particularly tough,” Melissa Earlam, an analyst at UBS AG in London, said in a note to clients today.

Chief Financial Officer Gilles Bogaert said Pernod would pay a tax rate of about 21 to 22 percent for fiscal 2010, compared with the 16.6 percent rate for fiscal 2009. The higher tax rate will prompt brokerages to reduce their earnings estimates, according to Simon Hales, an analyst at Evolution Securities in Lodnon who rates Pernod “sell.”

The shares were down 3.16 euros, or 5.9 percent, at 50.39 euros at noon in Paris, erasing their gains for the year. Shares of Johnnie Walker maker Diageo Plc, Pernod’s only bigger rival, are little changed this year after losing 11 percent in 2008.

Absolut Savings, Advertising

Pernod’s stock sank 33 percent last year on concern about the debt burden from its $7.4 billion acquisition of Absolut maker Vin & Sprit.

Bogaert, the CFO, said in an interview that Pernod still expects total cost savings of 150 million euros ($215 million) resulting from the acquisition of V&S, with 40 million euros coming in fiscal 2010 after a greater-than-expected 110 million euros were achieved in fiscal 2009 .

Pernod, whose Absolut brand’s marketing campaigns are known for Andy Warhol-inspired visuals and celebrities such as rapper Kanye West, raised advertising spending by 5 percent to 1.24 billion euros during the last fiscal year. Ad costs as a percentage of sales fell 0.7 percentage points to 17.2 percent as buying media space in the recession got cheaper.

Pernod’s net income climbed 13 percent to 945 million euros in the 12 months through June 30, beating the 897 million-euro average estimate of 14 analysts compiled by Bloomberg. Evolution’s Simon Hales said the company’s lower tax rate was largely responsible for the better-than-expected profit.

Albert Frere Stake

Earnings before interest and tax rose 21 percent to 1.85 billion euros. Pernod also said it will distribute a dividend of 50 cents a share, and award one free share for every 50 held.

Revenue increased 9.3 percent to 7.2 billion euros because of the Absolut deal. Excluding acquisitions and currency fluctuations, sales fell 0.4 percent on the inventory cuts, which prompted Pernod to lower its profit forecast in April.

Liquor wholesalers are now “practically finished” reducing their stockpiles, Pringuet said today.

Last night, the spirits maker said it would appoint two representatives of Albert Frere’s Groupe Bruxelles Lambert SA to Pernod’s board, including the Belgian billionaire’s son.

Frere, the company’s second-biggest investor, has been raising his stake in Pernod since 2007 and now holds 8.8 percent, Pringuet said on a conference call.

“Albert Frere is an important, friendly and long-term investor,” the CEO said today in an interview on BFM radio. “He has a great expertise in many industries, and the new board members are extremely welcome.”

 

[Imark]

Una storia di deleverage che seguo da tempo sul mercato USA, segmento high spirits, è quella di Constellation Brands... recente upgrade di S&P che tiene l'emittente in outlook positivo perché si attende un ulteriore miglioramento della metrica finanziaria per tramite di una riduzione del debito.

Prossimamente sarà il caso di splittare gli high spirits (Diageo, Campari, Bacardi, Pernod Ricard, Remy Cointreau, ecc) in un 3D dedicato... così lasciamo in pace i birrai...

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Constellation Brands Inc. Upgraded One Notch; Outlook Stable[/FONT]

• Victor, N.Y.-based Constellation Brands Inc.'s credit profile has improved, in part due to improving operating performance and debt reduction despite ongoing weak global macroeconomic conditions.
• We upgraded Constellation Brands ratings one notch, including its corporate credit rating to 'BB'.
• The outlook is positive because we expect Constellation Brands'credit measures will continue to strengthen from current levels.

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Sept. 3, 2009--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that it raised it ratings on Constellation Brands Inc., including its corporate credit rating to 'BB' from 'BB-'. The outlook is positive.

"The upgrade reflects Constellation Brands' good operating performance and improved credit measures, as well as our expectation that the improvement in the company's financial profile will be maintained despite current economic conditions which we believe could further slow overall demand for premium alcoholic beverages," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Jean C. Stout.

The company has continued to focus on debt reduction, reducing debt by about $935 million (including the benefit of changes in foreign currency exchange rates) since its fiscal year ended Feb. 28, 2008, largely the result of applying its discretionary cash flows and the net proceeds from asset sales to debt repayment. In addition, leverage has declined as a result of the company's ability to reduce costs, divest noncore and lower-margin assets, and reduce stock keeping units (SKU).

Victor, N.Y.–based Constellation Brands had about $4.3 billion of debt as of May 31, 2009.

Our ratings on Constellation Brands reflect the company's leveraged financial profile, significant, yet declining, debt burden, and participation in the highly competitive beverage alcohol markets. Constellation Brands benefits from its historically strong cash generation, from a diverse portfolio of consumer brands and debt reduction efforts.

Constellation Brands is a leading international producer and marketer of beverage alcohol. It is the largest wine company in the world and the largest multicategory supplier of beverage alcohol (wine, spirits, and imported beer, through its Crown Imports LLC joint venture) in the U.S.

The company also is a leading producer and exporter of wine from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada and a major producer and independent drinks wholesaler in the U.K. (through its investment in Matthew Clark).

The outlook on Constellation Brands is positive. Despite our belief that trade-down in the alcoholic beverage segment may accelerate due to lingering weak global economic conditions, we expect Constellation Brands' credit measures will continue to strengthen from current levels.

We could raise the ratings if the company further improves its credit ratios, including total debt to EBITDA approaching 4x. We estimate that leverage would approach 4x if reported sales declined about 5% versus the prior year and adjusted EBITDA margins remained near current levels.

However, we could revise the outlook to stable if financial performance weakens and debt reduction efforts slow resulting in credit measures remaining near current levels.

 

[Imark]

L'outlook globale di Moody's per l'industria del beverage è all'insegna della stabilità, sebbene gli incrementi dei prezzi varati nel 2008 non siano ripetibili a breve scadenza, i tagli dei costi e la tendenziale debolezza di pressioni inflazionistiche dovrebbe aiutare la generazione di FCF.

Peraltro il liquidity profile delle società del beverage resta buono, spesso implementato da processi di deleverage, consolidamento della provvista di liquidità attraverso l'attingimento al mercato obbligazionario, prefinanziamento del debito in scadenza approfittando del costo in discesa dei capitali.

Qualche ulteriore criticità permane per gli high spirits "premium", segmento in cui il calo dei volumi legato al destocking nella prima metà dell'anno è stato robusto specie in Europa. Adesso le cose paiono andare meglio, ma resta sullo sfondo il problema della sostenibilità dei volumi di vendita in una situazione in cui può presagirsi una fase di prolungata stagnazione del reddito disponibile per le spese voluttuarie.

Moody's: Global Beverage Outlook Stable on Resilience to Downturn

Paris, September 08, 2009 -- The outlook for the global beverage industry is stable, mainly due to producers' resiliency amidst the economic downturn, as well as Moody's belief that cash flow will be sustained in the near term in spite of weaker demand, says Moody's Investors Service in a new report. The report, "Global Beverage Industry Outlook," expresses the rating agency's expectations for fundamental credit conditions in the industry for the next 12-18 months.

"Beverage producers have exhibited the resiliency amidst the economic downturn that Moody's would expect from an industry characterised by repeat purchases of relatively inexpensive goods," says Yasmina Serghini-Douvin, an Assistant Vice President-Analyst in Moody's Corporate Finance Group and co-author of the report.

Furthermore, although pockets of weakness have emerged in some regions and for some products -- notably in the more expensive super premium segments -- Moody's believes demand will remain relatively solid and that price hikes enacted in 2008, combined with ongoing cost-cutting measures, will sustain cash flow in the near term.

"In H1 2009, companies continued to reap benefits from price increases, primarily from those implemented in 2008," explains Ms. Serghini-Douvin. "Although price increases will become more difficult to implement going forward as consumers tighten their belts and inflationary pressures ease, cost-cutting efforts -- ranging from plant closures to align capacity with reduced demand, to trimming personnel and other discretionary costs -- together with more moderate raw materials prices should help cushion margin erosion."

Moreover, Moody's believes that synergies from recent transactions and joint ventures, such as SABMiller's MillerCoors in the US, will enhance companies' profitability and strengthen their business profiles. Developing markets will also remain important sources of growth for the sector, albeit at a much slower pace than in the past. Furthermore, beverage companies have maintained good liquidity profiles, and many have reduced their debt and even tapped the debt markets to pre-finance approaching maturities.

However, Moody's notes that volumes continue to be under considerable strain, reflecting de-stocking, down-trading and overall reduced consumption. Massive de-stocking within distribution networks in the latter part of 2008, particularly in the US and Russia, translated into much weaker volume figures for alcoholic beverage companies. In Europe, companies such as Pernod Ricard and Remy Cointreau reported double-digit declines in volume growth in spirits sales during Q1 2009 (January-March), attributable in part, if not largely, to reduced inventories at distributors and wholesalers.

This trend has eased during the most recent quarter, but uncertainties remain regarding an increase in inventories and demand as a whole. The contraction in disposable income from still-rising unemployment, falling housing prices and tight credit conditions have resulted in reduced demand for beverages in most markets.

Nevertheless, Moody's expects that credit metrics in the sector will stabilise this year, and may even slightly improve, reflecting ongoing de-leveraging and more moderate capital investments. Therefore, the rating agency foresees limited ratings impact on the sector.

Moody's currently rates 31 alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage companies globally.

 

[Imark]

Intanto AB InBev continua nella sua lunga marcia di cessione di asset per ripagare il debito contratto nell'acquisizione delle attività USA...

Come da copione (erano fra gli asset indicati come cedibili) è toccato ai parchi tematici USA, ceduti alla Blackstone, la società leader mondiale nel private equity, per 2,3 mld $ più altri 400 mln $ legati alla performance dell'investimento...

La Reuters calcola che siamo a circa 500 mln $ dal target di 7 mld $ di asset da cedere entro l'anno fissato da AB InBev, e devo dire che sono rimasto anch'io abbastanza impressionato dalla capacità di focalizzare sul target fissato.

Ci sono ancora da cedere una serie di attività in europa orientale... anche di questo avevamo dato conto nel 3D...

AB InBev agrees to sell theme parks to Blackstone

Wed Oct 7, 2009 12:48pm EDT

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BR) said on Wednesday it had agreed to sell its U.S. theme parks to private equity group Blackstone (BX.N) for up to $2.7 billion, shedding a non-core business to help pay for its merger.

The world's largest brewer, formed by InBev's $52 billion takeover last year of U.S. rival Anheuser-Busch, has said it plans to raise $7 billion from divestments to help pay off $45 billion of loans.

The theme park deal would push it to within about $500 million of that target.
Blackstone would acquire AB InBev subsidiary Busch Entertainment Corp (BEC), which AB InBev said was the second-largest theme park operator in the United States.

It has 10 parks -- including three SeaWorlds and two Busch Gardens and 25 million visitors per year.

Blackstone would pay $2.3 billion on closing and a right to participate in its return on initial investment capped at $400 million, AB InBev said in a statement.

Blackstone would use senior secured credit facilities and mezzanine debt to finance its purchase.

Theme parks have been hurt during the recession as families curb spending.

AB InBev did not say when it expected the deal to close.

The brewer of Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's may still sell 11 breweries in seven countries in central and eastern Europe.

Private equity firm CVC Capital Partners has submitted the only bid, of around $2 billion, sources say.

 

[Imark]

Nuova maxiemissione di bonds, in $ stavolta, da parte di AB InBev.

DJ Anheuser-Busch InBev Sells $5.5B In Bonds
14.10.09

Anheuser-Busch InBev sells $5.5 billion in bonds, one of the largest deals in the U.S. investment-grade corporate bond market so far this year. Investor demand is also evident by the low risk premiums seen on the bonds.

NEW YORK -- Anheuser-Busch InBev (DJN) on Tuesday sold $5.5 billion in
bonds, one of the largest deals in the U.S. investment-grade corporate bond
market so far this year.

Investor demand was also evident by the low risk premiums seen on the bonds.

"We're seeing cash looking for high-quality corporates, and Anheuser-Busch is
a prime suspect," said William Larkin, portfolio manager at Cabot Money
Management in Salem, Mass. The brewer has strong market share, and its bond
holders "don't have to worry quarter after quarter," he said.

The offer is the fifth-largest investment-grade corporate bond deal
denominated in U.S. dollars this year, tied with AT&T's Inc.'s (T) $5.5 billion
deal in January, according to Dealogic's data excluding government-guaranteed
bonds.

A $1.5 billion three-year piece of the brewer's issue was sold at a risk
premium, or spread, of 160 basis points over Treasurys; a $1.25 billion
five-year piece at a spread of 185 basis points over Treasurys; and a $2.25
billion 10-year portion was sold at a 210 basis-point premium. All tranches
were offered five basis points lower than preliminary price guidance had
suggested.

In addition, the company decided to add a $500 million 30-year piece to the
deal. That tranche was sold at 220 basis points over Treasurys.

There were more than $12 billion in orders, with demand centering on the
three-year piece, according to a person familiar with the deal.

Proceeds may be going toward refinancing the $45 billion incurred last year
when the Belgian brewer InBev bought Anheuser-Busch last year, said two
investors.

Last week, the combined company, Anheuser-Busch InBev, said it will sell its
theme parks business to private-equity firm Blackstone Group (BX) for up to
$2.7 billion.

"We expect the company to make continued progress on its balance sheet in the
near term," wrote Gimme Credit analysts, citing the bond and theme park sales
and recommending the purchase of the new bonds.

A call to Anheuser-Busch InBev wasn't returned.

The offering was rated Baa2 by Moody's Investors Service and BBB+ by Standard
& Poor's. It was sold in the Rule 144a market via active bookrunners JPMorgan
Chase, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank. It includes a
change-of-control option and coupon steps.

 

[Imark]

Intanto AB InBev continua nella sua lunga marcia di cessione di asset per ripagare il debito contratto nell'acquisizione delle attività USA...
.....

Ci sono ancora da cedere una serie di attività in europa orientale... anche di questo avevamo dato conto nel 3D...

...

Cedute... devo dire che come velocità di esecuzione del progetto di dismissioni degli asset non core, si sono attenuti ai piani e come valore recuperato hanno finito per eccedere ampiamente il target dei 7 mld $...

Bella e veloce l'operazione di deleverage... ero stato scettico, anche per la pesantezza del fardello complessivo (i 45 mld $ accumulati per l'acquisto di Anheuser Busch da parte della belga InBev).

In sintesi sono state cedute tutte le attività est europee per 2,2 mld $ e la possibilità di salire fino a 3 mld $ dipendendo dalla futura redditività dell'investimento per l'acquirente.

Quest'ultima, la private equity CVC, ha raccolto 1 mld $ in debito senior (secured ? la Reuters non lo dice) di finanziamento bancario. certo i bei tempi degli LBO con solo 1/3 del prezzo anticipato in cash dalle equity firms ed il resto in finanziamenti bancari o con capitali raccolti sul mercato obbligazionario pare essere ancora lontano.

UPDATE 2-AB InBev sells E. Europe beer to CVC for $2.2 bln

Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:58am EDT

* Initial sale for $2.23 bln, could rise to $3.03 bln
* AB InBev passes targeted $7 bln of divestments
* Transaction to close by Jan 2010
* Third asset sale to private equity
* AB InBev shares rise 0.5 percent
(Adds further details, share price)
By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI.BR), agreed to sell breweries in nine eastern European countries to CVC Capital Partners on Thursday for an initial $2.23 billion, passing its target for divestments since its merger a year ago.

The sale is the third by the world's largest brewer to a private equity company, after KKR's purchase of South Korea's Oriental Brewery and Blackstone LP's (BX.N) of its U.S. theme parks, made possible by improved capital and equity markets.

AB InBev and CVC said in a statement that the price tag could rise to $3.03 billion depending on CVC's return on investment, while AB InBev has the right of first offer to reaquire the business should CVC decide to sell in the future.

AB InBev has therefore pushed past the $7 billion goal it had set for divestments to help pay for InBev's $52 billion takeover of U.S. rival Anheuser-Busch completed last November.

The brewer of Budweiser, Stella Artois and Beck's has now actually raised a potential $9.5 billion after sales of assets in South Korea, China, Scotland and Ireland as well as packaging and theme park businesses in the United States.

AB InBev, which took the number one spot back from SABMiller Plc (SAB.L) last year, said CVC would be acquiring its operations in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Montenegro, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia.

Analysts said the business was put up for sale as AB InBev did not have key positions in any large beer markets, while competition in some of these markets from SABMiller and Heineken (HEIN.AS) meant a bid from the world's second and third largest brewers was unlikely for anti-trust reasons.

AB InBev is the leading brewer by volume in Serbia, Croatia and Montenegro, number two in the Czech Republic to SABMiller, number two in Bulgaria to Heineken and number three in Hungary and Romania behind Heineken and SABMiller.

"We are pleased to announce this transaction which enables us to exceed our stated commitment to achieve $7 billion in divestitures," said AB InBev Chief Executive Carlos Brito.

AB InBev shares edged 0.5 percent higher to 33.24 euros by 0815 GMT.
As part of the transaction, CVC, which owns over 50 companies worldwide from motor racing's Formula One to luggage group Samsonite, had raised $1 billion of senior debt financing from a group of banks.

The deal, which was expected to close by January 2010, is comprised of a $1.618 billion cash payment, a $448 million unsecured deferred payment obligation with a six-year maturity and interest of 8 to 15 percent and $165 million in minority interests, assuming market value at Wednesday's close.

Barclays Capital and Lazard acted as financial advisers to AB InBev and Clifford Chance as legal adviser. Freshfields acted as legal counsel to CVC. (Additional reporting by David Jones; Editing by Hans Peters and Jon Loades-Carter)

 

[Imark]

La trimestrale di Heineken consente di buttare un occhio sul mercato europeo della birra...

Le cose non devono andare poi benissimo, visto che un po' tutti i produttori lamentano sul mercato USA e su quelli europei tanto un calo dei volumi di birra venduta quanto l'inclinazione dei consumatori a fare switch verso prodotti a basso prezzo, vanificando gli sforzi delle case produttrici, che negli anni scorsi hanno un po' tutte sfruttato la leva del marketing per cercare di indirizzare la domanda verso i cd. premium brand, prodotti ad alto prezzo e ad alto margine.

Cionondimeno, ad oggi la politica di Heineken, come degli altri è stata di contrastare i cali di fatturato determinati dalle flessioni nei volumi di vendita mediante un mix di aumenti dei prezzi sui brand premium e di tagli dei costi, visto peraltro che i costi delle materie prime tenderebbero, a loro dire, a salire.

Per ora la ricetta sembrerebbe funzionare, ma nel lungo periodo essa appare non sostenibile, implicando notevoli rischi, e non ultimo quello di una disaffezione verso i prodotti di punta in caso di crisi economica di durata prolungata.

A fronte di un calo dei volumi organici di birra venduta del 4,6% nel trimestre (che per un bene di consumo aciclico e di base non è poco), il fatturato organico (al netto dell'effetto di acquisizioni ecc.) è calato del 3,9% e Heineken annuncia tuttavia un utile netto in salita, per effetto dei tagli ai costi, che hanno comportato fra l'altro la chiusura di 7 impianti produttivi negli ultimi 2 mesi.

Un segnale questo di una debolezza attesa sul fronte dei consumi, che infatti è stata confermata nell'outlook di Heineken, non particolarmente ottimista specie per il mercato USA.

Heineken da un lato guarda alla possibilità di nuove acquisizioni sui mercati emergenti che possano allentare la propria esposizione ai mercati più maturi, ed in questo contesto si inseriscono le trattative con il secondo produttore di birra messicano per un'acquisizione o un'alleanza, dall'altro sembra intenzionata a non incrementare l'indebitamento, con un leverage che la società intende contenere entro il 3.5x (era al 3.1x al termine del primo semestre 2009).

• OCTOBER 28, 2009, 10:50 A.M. ET

2nd UPDATE: Heineken Ups 09 Guidance Despite Drop In 3Q Rev

(Rewrites, adds analyst, CFO comment)
By Maarten van Tartwijk
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

AMSTERDAM (Dow Jones)--Dutch brewer Heineken NV (HEIA.AE) Wednesday raised its full-year earnings guidance as it increased prices and cut costs, offsetting a 3.9% drop in third-quarter revenue as volumes continued to fall due to the economic downturn.

The company said markets in Europe and the U.S. remain under pressure because consumers are switching to cheaper beers, echoing comments made by other brewers which have said the move to premium beers seen before the downturn has slowed. Heineken said it isn't prepared to try and compete in the cheap beer sector.

The Amsterdam-based company said profit before exceptional items and amortization of brands, a figure closely watched by the market, will grow by low double digits in 2009 when acquisitions, disposals and currency movements are excluded. Previously, the company forecast growth by "at least high-single digits."

The brewer said profit before exceptional items and amortization of brands "may still be slightly lower than in 2008" as the euro's strength will hit profits from outside the euro zone.

Like rivals, Heineken is being hard hit by the economic downturn and falling beer consumption in its mature markets. All the major brewers are defending their premium brands, increasing prices even as volumes decline to offset high raw material prices and in the hope that consumers will return once an economic recovery takes hold.

Heineken has responded to the downturn by cutting costs and raising prices for its brews, but has also had to focus on reducing debt, which rose after it bought parts of U.K.-based Scottish & Newcastle last year. It announced the closure of four breweries and three malteries during the past two months, although it didn't give a figure for the savings it expects to achieve.

Heineken, the world's third-largest brewer by volume after Anheuser-Busch InBev NV (ABI.BT) and SABMiller PLC (SAB.JO), said revenue in the third quarter dropped 3.9% to EUR4.07 billion. Organic volumes dropped 4.7%.

The decline was greatest in the Americas, and Heineken blamed "the challenging consumer environment in North America." Heineken expects volumes to remain under pressure in most of its mature markets in Europe and the Americas.

Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Pieter Zwinkels, who rates the company at hold, said that the continued volume decline "does not bode well for the future".

Petercam analyst Kris Kippers, who also has a hold rating, said that Heineken's top line is under pressure because the benefits from higher prices are fading. "Going forward, we do not expect to see any major improvement in this field as consumers will continue to cut spending, certainly the indebted U.S. consumer."

Still, at 1435 GMT, Heineken's shares were up EUR0.34, or 1.1%, at EUR30.32, outperforming an 2% fall in the AEX index due to the raised guidance. The stock has risen 38% so far in 2009 amid a broader market rally.

Heineken Chief Financial Officer Rene Hooft Graafland declined to comment on reports that Heineken has talked to Femsa Cerveza about a possible takeover of Mexico's second-largest brewer.

Femsa recently acknowledged it was contemplating selling its beer business or making a strategic alliance with one of the world's brewing giants. Companies including Heineken and SABMiller are holding talks with Femsa, according to people familiar with the matter.

Heineken is a long-time partner of Femsa, and markets and sells Femsa products in the U.S. An acquisition would give it greater presence in emerging markets in Latin America, reducing its reliance on mature markets in Europe.

But Hooft Graafland said Heineken isn't only focused on emerging markets for expansion because it feels it could also create value for shareholders in mature markets.

"We judge M&A opportunities based on the value you can create", he said. "You can create value by having a number one or number two position in an individual market."

Hooft Graafland also said that Heineken would be wary about debt-financed acquisitions if it lifted the firm's net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization ratio above 3.5. In the first half, Heineken's net debt/ebitda ratio was 3.1.

 

[Imark]

Trimestrale di Anheuser-Busch InBev.

Come per Heineken: in calo i volumi di birra venduta (del 5,1%, con debolezza di nuovo negli USA ed in est europa ) y-o-y, si aspettano tuttavia un calo inferiore in termini percentuali con riguardo al trimestre corrente (per il quale però il dato si confronta con quello del Q4/2008, a crisi già in atto, e dunque un calo ulteriore non è un buon segnale).

Il fatturato è in calo anche qui, del 10% (secondo quanto riportato dal WSJ, che tuttavia suppongo non sia adjusted per le dismissioni effettuate) anche in considerazione dell'effetto delle valute sul valore delle vendite.

Il lavoro lo hanno fatto con le dismissioni ed il taglio dei costi post merger, con l'obiettivo di tagli per 2,25 mld $ in corso di realizzazione e confermato come target finale.

Ultimata la dismissione di asset non core, la società guarda ad un miglior sfruttamento della rete di distribuzione risultante dalla fusione di InBev con Anheuser Busch per rafforzare la presenza di alcuni marchi al di fuori degli USA e quindi far crescere il fatturato per questa via.

• NOVEMBER 12, 2009, 4:52 A.M. ET

AB InBev's Net Boosted by Merger Savings

BRUSSELS--Belgium-based brewer Anheuser-Busch InBev Thursday reported a $1.55 billion third-quarter net profit as cost savings from last year's merger of Anheuser-Busch and InBev offset sluggish sales and currency losses.

AB InBev also said it was still on track to achieve $2.25 billion in total cost cuts from the merger, which have helped boost profits during the past year as sales have slumped in the weak global economy.

AB InBev didn't provide pro forma net profit figures for the third quarter of last year, which occurred before the Anheuser deal closed in November 2008.

Sales fell 10% to $9.76 billion, due to lower sales volumes and the impact of fluctuating currencies, mainly the weakness of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar.

Total sales volumes fell 5.1% to 106.6 million hectoliters, reflecting weakness in the U.S. and Central and Eastern European markets. But the company said sales volumes in the fourth quarter won't post such a steep decline. It expects cost of sales per unit of beer to decline percentage-wise in 2009, which is better than previously anticipated.

The sales and revenue figures are disappointing, said Petercam analyst Kris Kippers, "but they delivered as promised with very good cost control."

After reaching agreements to sell a number of assets -- including its theme parks business and operations in Central Europe and the Balkans -- to help pay down debt, the brewer is now focusing on other goals such as selling more beer from its Bud family of brands outside the U.S., executives said.

"We clearly see the potential to bring that brand across the different markets where we operate and where we have a strong sales and marketing platform in place," said Chief Financial Officer Felipe Dutra in a conference call with reporters Thursday.

Shares in the brewer fell 2.6% in early trading in Brussels. The stock has risen 61% in value during the past 12 months.

 

[Imark]

Trimestrale di SABMiller, con gli inglesi che reputano possibile un leggero miglioramento nel proprio secondo semestre contabile.

Leggero declino dei volumi complessivi di birra venduta, taglio dei costi con incremento di 1 punto pct dell'EBIT margin, incremento dei prezzi del venduto. Varo di un piano plueriennale di contenimento dei costi, ma non estremo come portata...

• NOVEMBER 19, 2009, 4:38 A.M. ET

2nd UPDATE: SABMiller Sees Outlook Starting To Improve

(Re-writes, adds CEO comment.)
By Michael Carolan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Brewer SABMiller PLC (SAB.LN) said Thursday that, while tough trading conditions will continue in the second half of its financial year, the outlook is starting to improve, and it stands to benefit from favorable currency exchange and the easing of cost pressures.

The world's second-biggest brewer by volume after Anheuser-Busch Inbev NV (ABI.BT) said sales in the six months to end-September fell 20.8% to $8.85 billion from $11.17 billion. Net profit dropped to $973 million from $1.42 billion, hit by high input costs and adverse foreign-exchange rates.

The London-based company--which counts Grolsch, Peroni Nastro Azzurro, Castle Lager and Pilsner Urquell among its brands--reports its results in dollars, but a significant part of its earnings come from emerging economies, which have seen their currencies weaken in the fiscal first half.

However, the brewer expects input costs to begin to ease toward the end of this year as its existing contracts unwind, allowing it to take advantage of lower commodity prices. It also expects the adverse currency exchange to turn into a benefit in the second half, largely due to the recent strengthening of the South African rand and the Colombian peso.

While volumes declined 1% in the half year, the company managed to grow its market share in many markets despite significant price increases. Price rises, together with cost savings, resulted in a 1.1 percentage point growth in operating margin during the period.

"Overall, we expect the current trading conditions to continue in the second half, as unemployment, retail spending and other consumer indicators lag the reported stabilization of GDP in many of our markets," said Chief Executive Graham Mackay, but added that "things are starting to look up a little".

He told reporters that volumes will be no worse in the second half of the year than in the first half, "and I would hope they will be slightly better."
The weak global economy resulted in a 1% drop in volumes in the first half of the year.

The results were ahead of analysts' expectations and by 0900 GMT, SAB's shares were up 40 pence, or 2.4%, at 1697 pence. They have risen more than 40% since the start of the year as the company's strength in emerging markets is seen as an investment opportunity.

SABMiller also said it has begun a four-year program to reduce costs and simplify its business. Finance, human resources and procurement will be streamlined globally, it said, with some functions outsourced.

The program will cost $370 million in the first year, with costs lowering 40% each year until 2013. By 2014, the company expects to be saving $300 million each year.

CEO Mackay said the program is not about job cuts but rather is about taking complexity out of its local businesses.

SABMiller is seen as a front-runner ahead of Heineken NV (HEIA.AE) to buy Mexico's second-largest brewer Femsa Cerveza (FMX). Femsa recently acknowledged it was contemplating selling its beer business or making a strategic alliance with one of the world's brewing giants.

Mackay declined to comment on the Femsa situation though he did say the company was "well positioned to take advantage of future improvements in the market environment."

 

[Imark]

C'è dentro l'outlook 2010 di Fitch per il beverage, ma anche per tanta altra roba... food, tobacco, consumer goods...

E poi tutta la GDO ed il consumer retail ...

Ottime le tabelle di sintesi con la situazione corrente dei singoli emittenti...