Carlsberg non la seguiremo se non con la coda dell'occhio, visto che gli eurobonds sono in DKK e GBP... Questo report di Fitch mi sembra efficace a mo' di promemoria...
Fortissima l'esposizione sul mercato russo... molto problematica giacché c'è molto debito (evidentemente loans bancari) denominato in EUR (3/4 del totale) mentre una larga fetta del business genera cash flows in rubli, per cui il cambio eur/rub è un fattore critico per la metrica finanziaria dei danesi.
Peraltro i covenant sul debito prevedono un max di 4x in termini di leverage 2009 (contro un 3,7x stimato come probabile da Fitch, che reputa improbabile per quest'anno un deleverage a quota 3x in considerazione dell'atteso ulteriore indebolimento del RUB contro Eur).
Circa la copertura del debito, resta problematica per il 2010, nel senso che Carlsberg dovrà o generare flussi di cassa adeguati a ripagare una parte del debito oppure riuscire a rifinanziare il debito in scadenza sul mercato.
Fitch Affirms Carlsberg Breweries at 'BBB-'
11 May 2009 8:59 AM (EDT)
Fitch Ratings-London-11 May 2009: Fitch Ratings has today affirmed Carlsberg Breweries's (Breweries) Long-term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and senior unsecured rating at 'BBB-', respectively, and its Short-term IDR at 'F3'. The Outlook on the Long-term IDR is Stable.
"Today's rating action reflects the agency's confidence about Breweries's ability to deliver on its targets to de-leverage towards 3.0x,
although reaching this level may be delayed to FYE10 due to a deteriorating trading environment for the company's core Russian business, which accounts for as much as 40-45% of the company's operating profit," said Giulio Lombardi, Senior Director in Fitch's European Retail and Consumer Products Group.
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The performance of Breweries's Russian operations in euro equivalent is key for the direction of the company's rating, since an equivalent of DKK34bn (three quarters of total) debt was denominated in euros as of end December 2008 while the cash flow of this unit is generated in Russian roubles. The ability to repay debt is therefore exposed to any fluctuations in the rouble/euro rate."
The rating further reflects Breweries's balanced profile with operations both in the mature and developing world, the important market shares of at least between 30% and 40% that it enjoys in each of the countries and regions where it operates (including Russia, France, Switzerland, the Nordic and Baltic countries and Western China), supported by the high awareness of its core brands including Carlsberg, Tuborg, Kronenbourg and Baltika.
Finally, in addition to the cost rationalisations already achieved in the past five years, a number of new restructuring initiatives are being implemented in Northern and Western Europe. Acquisition synergies are expected to amount to DKK1.3bn by FY11, which should enable the company to increase its regional profit margin over time.
Following last year's joint acquisition with Heineken International NV of Scottish & Newcastle plc (S&N) for DKK57bn on a cash- and debt-free basis for its respective portion, the company's net debt has increased to DKK47.3bn as of FYE08 (FYE07: DKK17.9bn).
On an annualised basis, had the S&N assets been consolidated for the full FY08, Fitch calculates that Breweries's Operating EBITDAR would have been DKK12.8bn (up from DKK11.1bn in FY07), yielding a lease-adjusted Net Debt/Operating EBITDAR of approximately 3.7x.
Fitch has estimated Breweries's FY09 leverage by assuming a varied deterioration in beer demand in the company's different markets and by making varied assumptions on the performance of the rouble, including a stress scenario reflecting a 50% devaluation of the rouble since last October's levels and a severe drop of Breweries's Eastern European local currency net revenues.
The agency is comforted that Breweries has measures in place to reduce adverse effects on cash flow from a further depreciation of the rouble and a more severe economic downturn in Russia by cutting capex and costs.
Overall, Fitch estimates that FY09 leverage should, at worse, remain unchanged at FY08's annualised level of 3.7x and improve moderately in FY10, with sufficient headroom under the Net Debt/EBITDA covenant (for 2009, minimum Net Debt / EBITDA under the covenant is 4.0x).
Consequently, the Outlook remains Stable. While liquidity is adequate for 2009 and the first part of 2010, Breweries has a large amount of debt of DKK10.2bn due in October 2010 that it currently estimates it would need to refinance with new external resources. Fitch believes that even if the severe downside scenario materialises, the company should be able to generate sufficient cash flow to materially reduce this refinancing need.
) queste invece come funzionano ?
