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Michael Murphy responds to Lisa Lamotta hit piece. A must read for all! 10-Sep-10 06:32 pm
Typical hit piece: Why you should pay attention to Arena's Lorquess"
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarke...
Michael Murphy, Editor of the New World Investor (NWI) newsletter (which finished #2 in 2009 per Hulbert's) who has alerted his readers (me) to ARNA in 2008 replied:
2010-09-10 16:31:15
Michael Murphy
Several Errors to be Corrected
1. It would help your credibility if you got the name of the drug right. It is not "Lorquess," It is "Lorqess."
2. You wrote "its weight-loss potential is only about 6% of a patient's total body weight when combined with diet and exercise." That is not true. Here are the real numbers, the first from the BLOOM trial and the second from the BLOSSOM trial:
Proportion Losing More than 5%: 63.2% 66.4%
Proportion Losing more than 10%: 35.1% 36.2%
Average Weight Loss %: 7.9% 8.2%
Average weight loss in pounds: 17 17.9
3. You wrote: "Experts might not be willing to risk any sort of safety for such a small reward." That is not true. Experts agree that losing 7% of body weight can, for example, reduce the risk of a pre-diabetic advancing to diabetes by 58%. A simple Internet search will show numerous medical professionals welcoming a drug that results in 8% average weight loss.
4. You wrote: "Concerns will likely be raised about valvulopathy or heart issues despite lorcaserin showing few signs of heart issues in two-year studies." I would say that is not true, but "concerns" could simply mean the Advisory Committee is asked to confirm that Lorqess does not increase valvulopathy. As you know, the two-year data showed a slightly LOWER incidence of valvulopathy in those who took Lorqess vs. placebo.
5. You wrote "Lorcaserin is chemical cousin of fenfluramine -- the dangerous part of the Fen-Phen combination." In July, Eric Colman told Bloomberg:
The Food and Drug Administration doesn't need to revisit fen-phen's risks because none of the new treatments contain the same chemical mix, Eric Colman, deputy director of the agency's Division of Metabolism and Endocrinology Products, said today in a telephone interview.
(snip)
"To the best of our knowledge, the concern with the heart valves was limited to fenfluramine and dexfenfluramine," two fen-phen ingredients that were banned from the market in 1997, said Colman, who started in his division 15 years ago as risks from the treatment were emerging. "It was a very specific finding."
I urge you to correct all of these misstatements before you try to blog the Advisory Panel, in order to show you have no hidden bias against Arena Pharmaceuticals and their stock."
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ARNA's Lorcaserin will be recommended and then approved. The research is there, the due diligence completed, the wait is over. We longs are long and unwaivering in our committment to the drug and company. Shorts - late to the party and working from a position of weakness...the uneducated!