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Fleursdumal
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Aussie dlr dips after hitting fresh high on data
Thursday April 12, 2007, 4:33 pm
By Daniel Morrissey
SYDNEY, April 12 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to its highest since October 1990 on Thursday when March domestic employment data bolstered speculation interest rates might rise here later this year, but later dipped on profit taking.
Analysts said the local currency, which peaked at $0.8273 shortly after the jobs report, had met tough technical resistance while some investors remain nervous about its elevated levels.
Underpinning support for the Aussie is the greater risk of Australia's central bank lifting rates as early as next month, firmer base metals prices, foreign takeover activity in local companies and the general strength of the domestic economy.
"At this stage I'm happy to be just that little bit short, not for a big pullback but I do think we will get a pullback, probably limited to somewhere around that $0.8220 area," said Glen Whittingslow, head of foreign exchange at St George Bank.
"But I don't necessarily see us getting up through that $0.8280 area in the next 12 to 24 hours."
At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8245/48 compared with $0.8244/47 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. Its session low of $0.8233 was briefly touched before the March employment report was released.
Overall employment rose by 10,500 in March, a little less than expected, data showed. But full-time jobs jumped a hefty 31,700 and the jobless rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 4.5 percent, matching a 31-year low seen in January.
The report illustrated that the labour market remained tight especially with the unemployment rate falling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said. "We remain bullish on the Australian dollar," said Grace, who forecasts that the currency will eventually reach $0.8550.
The Aussie also eased against the Japanese currency. The Aussie/yen cross AUDJPY=R had earlier touched a fresh 10-year high of 98.71 yen after the International Monetary Fund said it saw no need to get "heavy-handed" on yen carry trades.
A carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding currencies such as the yen to invest in high-yielding currencies like the Aussie.
The Aussie has rallied as much as 7.7 percent since it fell to a 16-week low of $0.7682 on March 6 after investors unwound riskier bets like carry trades amid gyrations on stock markets.
Hawkish comments by a senior Australian central bank official just four weeks ago sparked this rally in the Aussie, although the central bank held rates steady at 6.25 percent this month.
Financial markets now price a 63 percent chance Australia's central bank would lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent at its May meeting, a Credit Suisse report said. That compared with a probability of 57 percent on Wednesday.
Credit Suisse also said financial markets were now pricing in a 20 percent chance of a further rate rise over the next 12 months. That risk was priced at 8 percent the previous day.
Still, economists had mixed views on whether the latest jobs data were enough for the central bank, which has a tightening bias, to lift rates in May. Some analysts said the consumer price data on April 24 will decide the near-term outlook for rates.
Thursday April 12, 2007, 4:33 pm
By Daniel Morrissey
SYDNEY, April 12 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to its highest since October 1990 on Thursday when March domestic employment data bolstered speculation interest rates might rise here later this year, but later dipped on profit taking.
Analysts said the local currency, which peaked at $0.8273 shortly after the jobs report, had met tough technical resistance while some investors remain nervous about its elevated levels.
Underpinning support for the Aussie is the greater risk of Australia's central bank lifting rates as early as next month, firmer base metals prices, foreign takeover activity in local companies and the general strength of the domestic economy.
"At this stage I'm happy to be just that little bit short, not for a big pullback but I do think we will get a pullback, probably limited to somewhere around that $0.8220 area," said Glen Whittingslow, head of foreign exchange at St George Bank.
"But I don't necessarily see us getting up through that $0.8280 area in the next 12 to 24 hours."
At 4 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8245/48 compared with $0.8244/47 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. Its session low of $0.8233 was briefly touched before the March employment report was released.
Overall employment rose by 10,500 in March, a little less than expected, data showed. But full-time jobs jumped a hefty 31,700 and the jobless rate dropped a tenth of a percentage point to 4.5 percent, matching a 31-year low seen in January.
The report illustrated that the labour market remained tight especially with the unemployment rate falling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief currency strategist Richard Grace said. "We remain bullish on the Australian dollar," said Grace, who forecasts that the currency will eventually reach $0.8550.
The Aussie also eased against the Japanese currency. The Aussie/yen cross AUDJPY=R had earlier touched a fresh 10-year high of 98.71 yen after the International Monetary Fund said it saw no need to get "heavy-handed" on yen carry trades.
A carry trade involves borrowing low-yielding currencies such as the yen to invest in high-yielding currencies like the Aussie.
The Aussie has rallied as much as 7.7 percent since it fell to a 16-week low of $0.7682 on March 6 after investors unwound riskier bets like carry trades amid gyrations on stock markets.
Hawkish comments by a senior Australian central bank official just four weeks ago sparked this rally in the Aussie, although the central bank held rates steady at 6.25 percent this month.
Financial markets now price a 63 percent chance Australia's central bank would lift interest rates by 25 basis points to 6.50 percent at its May meeting, a Credit Suisse report said. That compared with a probability of 57 percent on Wednesday.
Credit Suisse also said financial markets were now pricing in a 20 percent chance of a further rate rise over the next 12 months. That risk was priced at 8 percent the previous day.
Still, economists had mixed views on whether the latest jobs data were enough for the central bank, which has a tightening bias, to lift rates in May. Some analysts said the consumer price data on April 24 will decide the near-term outlook for rates.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
dan24 ha scritto:Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1176372497dddd.gif
propongo che ognuno si faccia il suo...e fankiulo
fatt...
f4f
翠鸟科
spettacologipa69 ha scritto:fatt...
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1176374454reggiseno_pic.jpg
cmq questo è tradimento, Fleu
ritorna al thread bundarol o ti passiamo .... e TI PIACEREBBE ti passassimo , eh
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Aussie dollar scales 17-yr peak ahead of G7 meet
Friday April 13, 2007, 4:30 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 13 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rose to a fresh 17-year peak on Friday against a broadly weak U.S. dollar as investors increasingly bet Australia's central bank will raise interest rates next month to check inflation.
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It also set a fresh 10-year high against the Japanese yen AUDJPY=RR, rising to 98.98 yen, ahead of a G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers at the weekend.
Global imbalances and currencies are sure to be topics for discussion at the meeting, but it's unlikely that yen weakness will be singled out, giving the green light for carry trades to continue, traders said.
The Aussie has been a major beneficiary of carry trades, where investors borrow in the yen, where interest rates are low, to buy higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar.
At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8323/8327, up 0.9 percent from $0.8245/48 here late on Thursday, according to Reuters data. It hit a high of $0.8331 earlier in the day, its strongest since Oct. 1990.
"There is a substantial amount of good news priced into the Aussie at current levels and some consolidation is overdue, but this has proven to be a powerful rally so far," said Cherelle Murphy, economist markets, at ANZ.
"There appears to be little scope for a major reversal ahead of the upcoming CPI (consumer price) data and Reserve Bank of Australia meeting without a correction in the fortunes of the U.S. dollar."
The U.S. dollar was mired at a two-year low against the euro EUR= on speculation euro zone rates will rise further in the coming months. It also lost against other major currencies.
The Aussie has risen 7.7 percent since it struck a 16-week low of $0.7679 hit on March 6 on renewed appetite for carry, with speculation the RBA may lift rates in the coming months luring investors searching for better yields.
Also foreign takeover activity in local companies, higher metal prices and the general strength of the domestic economy have lent support to the Aussie currency, analysts say.
Data released on Thursday showed Australia's jobless rate dropped to a 31-year low of 4.5 percent in March, adding to speculation of a rate rise in the coming months.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 64 percent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting, up from about 50 percent a week back.
Some analysts say the first-quarter consumer price data on April 24 could be the clincher. Median forecasts are for consumer prices and underlying inflation to both rise a moderate 0.6 percent.
"While a May rate hike is certainly a possibility, the March quarter consumer price index (CPI) remains the significant hoop to jump through," said analysts at Macquarie Bank said in a note.
"With the U.S. dollar under pressure, cheap global liquidity still abundant, and rate hike speculation still in play, the Aussie remains in a sweet spot," the bank added.
Friday April 13, 2007, 4:30 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 13 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rose to a fresh 17-year peak on Friday against a broadly weak U.S. dollar as investors increasingly bet Australia's central bank will raise interest rates next month to check inflation.
ADVERTISEMENT
It also set a fresh 10-year high against the Japanese yen AUDJPY=RR, rising to 98.98 yen, ahead of a G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bankers at the weekend.
Global imbalances and currencies are sure to be topics for discussion at the meeting, but it's unlikely that yen weakness will be singled out, giving the green light for carry trades to continue, traders said.
The Aussie has been a major beneficiary of carry trades, where investors borrow in the yen, where interest rates are low, to buy higher-yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollar.
At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8323/8327, up 0.9 percent from $0.8245/48 here late on Thursday, according to Reuters data. It hit a high of $0.8331 earlier in the day, its strongest since Oct. 1990.
"There is a substantial amount of good news priced into the Aussie at current levels and some consolidation is overdue, but this has proven to be a powerful rally so far," said Cherelle Murphy, economist markets, at ANZ.
"There appears to be little scope for a major reversal ahead of the upcoming CPI (consumer price) data and Reserve Bank of Australia meeting without a correction in the fortunes of the U.S. dollar."
The U.S. dollar was mired at a two-year low against the euro EUR= on speculation euro zone rates will rise further in the coming months. It also lost against other major currencies.
The Aussie has risen 7.7 percent since it struck a 16-week low of $0.7679 hit on March 6 on renewed appetite for carry, with speculation the RBA may lift rates in the coming months luring investors searching for better yields.
Also foreign takeover activity in local companies, higher metal prices and the general strength of the domestic economy have lent support to the Aussie currency, analysts say.
Data released on Thursday showed Australia's jobless rate dropped to a 31-year low of 4.5 percent in March, adding to speculation of a rate rise in the coming months.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 64 percent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting, up from about 50 percent a week back.
Some analysts say the first-quarter consumer price data on April 24 could be the clincher. Median forecasts are for consumer prices and underlying inflation to both rise a moderate 0.6 percent.
"While a May rate hike is certainly a possibility, the March quarter consumer price index (CPI) remains the significant hoop to jump through," said analysts at Macquarie Bank said in a note.
"With the U.S. dollar under pressure, cheap global liquidity still abundant, and rate hike speculation still in play, the Aussie remains in a sweet spot," the bank added.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ABC Finance News
Aussie dollar hits 17-year high
Friday April 13, 2007, 10:37 am
The Australian dollar has soared to a new 17-year-high this morning.
At 10:30am AEST, it was trading at 83.22 US cents.
ANZ Bank's senior currency strategist Tony Morris says the latest surge is mostly because of weakness in the US currency.
But he says a number of other factors have played a part, including takeover activity and a rally of metal prices.
"Finally this morning, the factor that helped drive the Aussie above the 83 cent line was some incredibly strong retail sales data out of New Zealand, which saw the New Zealand dollar shoot up sharply to 73.5 (US cents).
"That helped dragged the Aussie higher again."
Aussie dollar hits 17-year high
Friday April 13, 2007, 10:37 am
The Australian dollar has soared to a new 17-year-high this morning.
At 10:30am AEST, it was trading at 83.22 US cents.
ANZ Bank's senior currency strategist Tony Morris says the latest surge is mostly because of weakness in the US currency.
But he says a number of other factors have played a part, including takeover activity and a rally of metal prices.
"Finally this morning, the factor that helped drive the Aussie above the 83 cent line was some incredibly strong retail sales data out of New Zealand, which saw the New Zealand dollar shoot up sharply to 73.5 (US cents).
"That helped dragged the Aussie higher again."
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
iniziamo la rincorsa dan mortazzzzi tui dato il secondo sulla r2 a 0,8318 future
dan mortazzzzi tui dato il secondo sulla r2 a 0,8318 future