AUD/USD Il canguro suona sempre due volte

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie dollar at new 17-year high after G7 meet
Monday April 16, 2007, 9:39 am

SYDNEY, April 16 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar climbed to a fresh 17-year peak against the U.S. dollar on Monday, buoyed by gains against the Japanese yen after the weekend Group of Seven (G7) ministers meeting appeared unconcerned about carry trades.

Gains by the Aussie were also bolstered by speculation that Australia's central bank will raise interest rates next month to check inflation.
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The gathering of finance ministers and central bank chiefs of the world's richest nations reiterated their message on currencies delivered in February in which they had said exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals.

Traders said this meant carry trades would continue and investors were likely to dump the yen and the U.S. dollar for higher yielding currencies like the euro, the Australian and New Zealand dollar.

"The Aussie dollar rallies received fresh support from the G7 meeting given the lack of any real focus on carry trades or the weak yen from G7 officials, other than Trichet," said Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank.

The Aussie has been a major beneficiary of carry trades, where investors borrow in interest rates which are low, to buy currencies with higher returns.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said foreign exchange markets should take note of the health of the Japanese economy when taking bets on the yen.

At 9:15 a.m. (2315 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8351/0.8354, up from $0.8323/27 here late on Friday, according to Reuters data.

It also rose to a fresh 10-year high against the Japanese yen AUDJPY=R, rising as high as 99.90 yen.

The Aussie has risen 8 percent since it struck a 16-week low of $0.7679 hit on March 6, on renewed appetite for risky carry trades, with speculation the central bank may lift rates in the coming months luring more investors hunting for better yields.

Growing foreign interest in acquiring Australian companies, higher metal prices and the general strength of the domestic economy and have also lent support to the Aussie currency, analysts say.

Data released last week showed Australia's jobless rate dropped to a 31-year low of 4.5 percent in March, adding to speculation of a rate rise in the coming months.

The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing nearly a 70 percent chance the central bank will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting.

"While the G7 communique was unchanged in terms of currencies, there was a notably upbeat view on the global economy. That also helps explain underlying demand for the commodity currencies," Morriss said.

"The next target of the Aussie dollar is around $0.8400."

 

[dan24]

io farei anche 1 tondo come tp e non ci si pensa più

 

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie stays below 17-yr high, awaits fresh cues
Tuesday April 17, 2007, 4:40 pm

By Anirban Nag

SYDNEY, April 17 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar consolidated below 17-year peaks against the U.S. currency on Tuesday, with investors taking a breather ahead of key data next week which could give fresh clues on domestic monetary policy.
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But the Aussie was unlikely to fall sharply, and will be supported by rising gold and commodity prices. Increased demand for carry trades after the Group of Seven finance ministers meeting at the weekend appeared to give a green light to the transactions is also expected to give support.

The Aussie barely reacted to a quarterly survey from National Australia Bank which showed Australian businesses reported strong trading conditions last quarter, generating more demand for labour and leaving the economy with little spare capacity.

"There is plenty of evidence that capacity is in full use and there is a risk of higher interest rates," said Stephen Roberts, research director at Grange Securities, the Australian unit of Lehman Brothers.

"The Aussie is forming a base before running into producer price index and CPI data next week. Also, higher commodity prices and fresh speculation about mergers and acquisitions could propel the Aussie to 84 cents."

At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8322/26, up from $0.8313/17 here late on Monday, according to Reuters data. It hit a 17-year high of $0.8357 on Monday.

The Aussie has risen over 7.5 percent from a 16-week low of $0.7679 on March 6, as risky carry trades returned to favour, with the speculation that local rates will rise in the near term luring investors chasing high yielding currencies.

Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in high yielders like the Aussie and kiwi.

The Aussie has also been lifted by growing foreign interest in acquiring Australian companies and the general strength of the domestic economy, which is witnessing its 16th year of expansion.

Data released last week showed Australia's jobless rate dropped to a 31-year low of 4.5 percent in March, boosting chances of a rate rise.

The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 62 percent chance the central bank will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting, up from about a 50 percent chance at the start of last week.

A hike would widen rate differentials over the U.S. and Japan, and that could see Aussie test the 100 yen mark, analysts say. It was at 99.29/39 yen AUDJPY=R, up from 99.20/30 on Monday, when it touched 99.90.

"With rate hike speculation everywhere but the U.S. and Japan, it is no surprise that carry trades continue to extend and this includes the Aussie dollar, despite the resistance at 100 yen," analysts at Macquarie Bank said in a report.

 

[dan24]

cioè?

 

[Fleursdumal]

cioè?

mettiti prono a 90° e pazienta

Aussie vs Gold

 

[dan24]

mi è venuta la scoliosi a forza di stare a 90°

 

[vmnet]

ciao dan dove potrebbe arrivare a o,84 prima di stornare oppure potrebbe gia' iniziare a scendere e fino a dove potrebbe trovare un supporto? ciao grazie

 

[dan24]

ciao dan dove potrebbe arrivare a o,84 prima di stornare oppure potrebbe gia' iniziare a scendere e fino a dove potrebbe trovare un supporto? ciao grazie

emm praticamente 0,84 lo ha fatto...pips più pips meno...0,8384 per adesso....come supporto primo ho 0,8210 dove mi chiuderei...sotto beeee neanche ci sto guardando...

 

[dan24]

c'e' poco da commentare un grafico del genere....nega ieri la candela di indecisione dell'altro ieri....segnando nuovi massimi assoluti...in un trend senza fine....e senza sorta di ritracciamento....inimmaginabile...fa nuovi max...e lateralizza per tutto il giorno fino a nuovi spike rialzisti....

a livello tecnico solo sotto i 0,8310 avremmo un ritraciamento verso area 0,8210....

rimango supino a 180°

 

[Fleursdumal]

Aussie holds near 17-year peak on rate speculation
Wednesday April 18, 2007, 4:42 pm

By Anirban Nag

SYDNEY, April 18 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rose 0.5 percent on Wednesday to just below fresh 17-year peaks against the U.S. currency, on speculation domestic interest rates will rise in the coming months and on firm commodity prices.


A weaker U.S. dollar after data showed U.S. core inflation grew just 0.1 percent in March and boosted expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut later this year, also supported the Aussie.

"Clearly the market is downbeat on the U.S. dollar and there are risks ahead of softer data from the U.S.," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp.

"The Aussie can rise to 84 cents in the near term depending on the gains the euro and sterling."

At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8364/69, up from $0.8322/26 here late on Tuesday, according to Reuters data. It hit a 17-year high of $0.8385 in offshore trade.

The Aussie has risen over 8 percent from a 16-week low of $0.7679 on March 6, making it one of the best performing currencies in the past few weeks, after carry trades returned to favour after a bout of risk aversion.

Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in high yielders like the Aussie and kiwi.

The hunt for higher returns saw the Australian dollar break above 100 yen AUDJPY=R for the first time since May 1997, rising as high as 100.04 yen in offshore deals. But profit taking saw it pull back to 99.29/39 yen by Wednesday evening.

"We could see the Aussie underperform on the crosses," said Rennie. "We are starting to see Japanese institutional and retail investors sell the Aussie. Besides, there are expectations of a soft reading of CPI and PPI next week, which could weigh on the Aussie, especially on the crosses."

The Aussie eased to a seven-week low against the New Zealand dollar AUDNZD=R. The kiwi NZD= soared to a 22-year high of $0.7493 against the U.S. dollar in local trade after New Zealand consumer prices rebounded in the first quarter, supporting views the central bank may lift rates again.

Speculation of a rate hike has been supporting the Aussie, but investors are now awaiting next week's producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) data for more clues on monetary policy.

The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 60 percent chance the central bank will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting, up from about a 50 percent chance at the start of last week.

"I think any pull back by the Aussie after a soft CPI will be shallow," said John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "If they do not hike in May, expectations of a rate increase will get pushed back to June or later, supporting the Aussie."