AUD/USD Il canguro suona sempre due volte
- Creatore Discussione Fleursdumal
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
una cosa interessante c'è scritta: hanno iniziato a vedere gli istituzionali jap e anche il retail jap vendere aussie
il fottuto però tiene i 0,83 con le unghie e con i denti
il fottuto però tiene i 0,83 con le unghie e con i denti
dan24
Forumer storico
settimanale...tirato anche il frame week...ritest almeno di 0,8210..massimo assoluto precedente...lo deve fare...
il segnale arriverà con la rottura...di area 0,8316/10 su cui si sta appoggiando da giorni..e che è oggi mama daily....sotto il vuoto fino proprio ad area 0,8210/0,8190 dove transita fama daily e supporto statico e 23.6% di ritraciamento...
714K media 0,8293 pronto ad incrementare su ritest di area 0,84/0,8415 oppure a mantenere se rompe i 0,831 in attesa di chiudermi almeno a 0,8210/0,822
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Aussie eases from 17-year peak as yen recovers
Thursday April 19, 2007, 4:31 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 19 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar retreated from a fresh 17-year peak against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as a recovery in the Japanese yen saw investors unwind risky carry trade positions.
The yen rose against most major currencies, boosted by solid Japanese service industry data and partly by speculation that China's first-quarter gross domestic product data could beat expectations, forcing more tightening by the authorities there.
"The stronger yen is on the back of concerns that strong data from China could see monetary tightening there," said Richard Grace, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank.
Investors seeking exposure to the non-convertible Chinese yuan often take positions in other liquid Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, or the Singapore dollar, pushing them higher.
In a Reuters poll, economists expected China's GDP to have grown 11 percent in the first quarter, year-on-year, picking up from a 10.6 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
Grace said the stronger yen saw carry trades being unwound with sentiment also shaken by wobbly equity markets.
The Aussie has rallied over 7 percent since early March, after a bout of risk aversion saw it fall to a 16-week low. It has been boosted mainly by speculation of a domestic interest rate rise and rising demand for carry trades.
Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in high yielders like the Aussie and kiwi.
At 4:05 p.m. (0605 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8321/23, down 0.5 percent from $0.8364/69 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. It hit a 17-year high of $0.8392 in early trade.
The Aussie fell around 1.2 percent against the yen AUDJPY=, retreating further from a decade high of 100.04 yen hit earlier this week as Japanese investors booked profits.
"I think the fall in the Aussie is temporary and it should rebound," said Grace.
The Aussie has been lifted in recent weeks by growing foreign interest in acquiring Australian companies, firm commodity prices and the general strength of the economy.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 52 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting.
"Uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook and a higher Australian dollar have been cited as reasons for the RBA not to tighten in the short term," said Sally Auld, interest rate strategist at ANZ.
"But with demand indicators clearly picking up momentum in 2007, the only obstacle to a rate hike in May appears to be a low consumer price index next week."
Australia's inflation report for the first quarter is due on Tuesday and median forecasts are for a moderate 0.6 percent rise.
Thursday April 19, 2007, 4:31 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 19 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar retreated from a fresh 17-year peak against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as a recovery in the Japanese yen saw investors unwind risky carry trade positions.
The yen rose against most major currencies, boosted by solid Japanese service industry data and partly by speculation that China's first-quarter gross domestic product data could beat expectations, forcing more tightening by the authorities there.
"The stronger yen is on the back of concerns that strong data from China could see monetary tightening there," said Richard Grace, senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank.
Investors seeking exposure to the non-convertible Chinese yuan often take positions in other liquid Asian currencies like the Japanese yen, or the Singapore dollar, pushing them higher.
In a Reuters poll, economists expected China's GDP to have grown 11 percent in the first quarter, year-on-year, picking up from a 10.6 percent expansion in the fourth quarter.
Grace said the stronger yen saw carry trades being unwound with sentiment also shaken by wobbly equity markets.
The Aussie has rallied over 7 percent since early March, after a bout of risk aversion saw it fall to a 16-week low. It has been boosted mainly by speculation of a domestic interest rate rise and rising demand for carry trades.
Carry trades involve borrowing in low-yield currencies like the yen to invest in high yielders like the Aussie and kiwi.
At 4:05 p.m. (0605 GMT) the Aussie dollar AUD= was quoted at $0.8321/23, down 0.5 percent from $0.8364/69 here late on Wednesday, according to Reuters data. It hit a 17-year high of $0.8392 in early trade.
The Aussie fell around 1.2 percent against the yen AUDJPY=, retreating further from a decade high of 100.04 yen hit earlier this week as Japanese investors booked profits.
"I think the fall in the Aussie is temporary and it should rebound," said Grace.
The Aussie has been lifted in recent weeks by growing foreign interest in acquiring Australian companies, firm commodity prices and the general strength of the economy.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 52 percent chance the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting.
"Uncertainty over the U.S. economic outlook and a higher Australian dollar have been cited as reasons for the RBA not to tighten in the short term," said Sally Auld, interest rate strategist at ANZ.
"But with demand indicators clearly picking up momentum in 2007, the only obstacle to a rate hike in May appears to be a low consumer price index next week."
Australia's inflation report for the first quarter is due on Tuesday and median forecasts are for a moderate 0.6 percent rise.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Aussie recovers from sell-off, awaits key data
Friday April 20, 2007, 4:39 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 20 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rebounded on Friday from a sharp sell off of high yielding currencies, but gains were checked ahead of domestic data due next week that could give clues on whether interest rates will rise.
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Australia releases first-quarter producer price figures on Monday and markets expect a 3.5 percent rise over the previous quarter. That will be followed by the more crucial consumer price index (CPI) data for the first quarter on Tuesday. Forecasts are for a 0.6 percent moderate rise in underlying inflation.
Such an outcome would see the annual pace of inflation slow to around 2.8 percent, from 3.0 percent, and back within the central bank's 2 percent to 3 percent target band. This could also prompt the central bank to keep rates steady when its board meets on May 1, leading to a possible sell off in the Aussie.
"A 0.6 percent rise in underlying inflation could be a trigger to raise rates in May, especially since private consumption has been a big contributor to output in the first quarter," said Stephen Roberts, research director at Grange Securities, the Australian unit of Lehman Brothers.
At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT), the Aussie AUD= was quoted at $0.8343/46, up from $0.8321/23 here late on Thursday and rebounding from a low of $0.8276 hit in offshore trade. It struck a 17-year high of $0.8392 on Thursday, boosted mainly by speculation of a rate rise and rising demand for carry trades.
But some analysts disagree that a moderate inflation reading could stay the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hand next month, given a slew of data recently that indicated the economy continued to gain momentum in the first quarter of 2007.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 56 percent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting.
Data released on Friday showed new motor vehicle sales rose 1.0 pct in March from the previous month and were 11.2 percent higher than the same month a year earlier.
Other figures showed the recent surge in the Australian dollar and lower oil prices during the March quarter helped ease pressure on import prices. They fell by a faster-than-expected rate of 1.7 percent and would help take some of the heat off the CPI.
But robust domestic demand was likely to offset that fall and headline inflation could surprise on the upside, analysts say.
The Aussie also recovered against the Japanese yen AUDJPY=R, rising to as high as 99.21 yen from a low of 97.37 yen in offshore trade, helped by recovery in regional stock market which saw investors' appetite for carry trades restored.
The Japanese yen had risen on worries that a possible rate rise in China could slow its red-hot economy, prompting investors to pare positions in risky investments.
Most of the investments have been funded by carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy high-yielding assets or currencies like the Aussie.
Friday April 20, 2007, 4:39 pm
By Anirban Nag
SYDNEY, April 20 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar rebounded on Friday from a sharp sell off of high yielding currencies, but gains were checked ahead of domestic data due next week that could give clues on whether interest rates will rise.
ADVERTISEMENT
Australia releases first-quarter producer price figures on Monday and markets expect a 3.5 percent rise over the previous quarter. That will be followed by the more crucial consumer price index (CPI) data for the first quarter on Tuesday. Forecasts are for a 0.6 percent moderate rise in underlying inflation.
Such an outcome would see the annual pace of inflation slow to around 2.8 percent, from 3.0 percent, and back within the central bank's 2 percent to 3 percent target band. This could also prompt the central bank to keep rates steady when its board meets on May 1, leading to a possible sell off in the Aussie.
"A 0.6 percent rise in underlying inflation could be a trigger to raise rates in May, especially since private consumption has been a big contributor to output in the first quarter," said Stephen Roberts, research director at Grange Securities, the Australian unit of Lehman Brothers.
At 4:00 p.m. (0600 GMT), the Aussie AUD= was quoted at $0.8343/46, up from $0.8321/23 here late on Thursday and rebounding from a low of $0.8276 hit in offshore trade. It struck a 17-year high of $0.8392 on Thursday, boosted mainly by speculation of a rate rise and rising demand for carry trades.
But some analysts disagree that a moderate inflation reading could stay the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hand next month, given a slew of data recently that indicated the economy continued to gain momentum in the first quarter of 2007.
The 30-day interbank futures market 0#YIB: is pricing a 56 percent chance the RBA will raise the cash rate to a decade high of 6.5 percent at its May meeting.
Data released on Friday showed new motor vehicle sales rose 1.0 pct in March from the previous month and were 11.2 percent higher than the same month a year earlier.
Other figures showed the recent surge in the Australian dollar and lower oil prices during the March quarter helped ease pressure on import prices. They fell by a faster-than-expected rate of 1.7 percent and would help take some of the heat off the CPI.
But robust domestic demand was likely to offset that fall and headline inflation could surprise on the upside, analysts say.
The Aussie also recovered against the Japanese yen AUDJPY=R, rising to as high as 99.21 yen from a low of 97.37 yen in offshore trade, helped by recovery in regional stock market which saw investors' appetite for carry trades restored.
The Japanese yen had risen on worries that a possible rate rise in China could slow its red-hot economy, prompting investors to pare positions in risky investments.
Most of the investments have been funded by carry trades, in which investors borrow cheaply in yen to buy high-yielding assets or currencies like the Aussie.
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