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Sep 8, 2013 5:00 PM GMT+0200
Japanese shares are getting cheaper faster than any developed market as global investors regain faith in the world’s third-largest economy, with valuations declining even as the benchmark Topix index rallies.
The price-earnings ratio for the nation’s companies dropped to 14.3 times estimated profits from 17.1 at the start of 2013 because the Topix’s 34 percent surge, the biggest among 24 developed countries tracked by Bloomberg, has failed to keep up with analyst forecasts for 60 percent income growth. Nowhere have valuations contracted faster than in Japan. Multiples have increased in the U.S., France and the U.K.
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“This time is for real,” Sergi Martin Amoros, who helps oversee $4 billion as chief executive officer of Credit Andorra Asset Management in Andorra, said in a Sept. 6 phone interview. “Their previous efforts were never accompanied by such a decisive monetary policy and the government’s willingness to commit to structural reforms is also something we haven’t seen before. This is the real one.”
Credit Andorra made its first Japanese investments in “many years” this quarter, he said
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Stocks rallied last week, with the Topix climbing 3.8 percent to 1,147.82 for the biggest advance in two months. Sony Corp. and Honda Motor Co. (7267), companies that get more than 65 percent of sales outside Japan, surged more than 5 percent. The benchmark gauge for Japanese shares has gained 34 percent in 2013 and the 59 percent rise since November is the biggest advance in a quarter century.
“We’re positive on Japanese equities,” Stephen Corry, Hong Kong-based chief investment strategist at LGT Group, a private banking and asset-management firm that oversees about $115 billion, said in a phone interview Sept. 6. “We’ll continue to see more positive earnings revisions. Abe wants to leave a legacy in Japanese politics as the man who altered the economy and that’s encouraging.”
Foreigners speculating that Abe will succeed in stimulating economic growth and halting deflation have been pouring money into the Tokyo stock market. They added $93 billion to holdings this year, Finance Ministry data show.
Topix companies will earn a combined 80.48 yen a share this year, up from 50.29 yen in 2012 and 38.05 yen in 2011, when Japan had its biggest earthquake and nuclear disaster, according to more than 6,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Fifteen of 18 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the gauge to rise by year-end, with the median forecast for a 11 percent increase to 1,270. Nomura Holdings Inc. is the most bullish, projecting a 31 percent jump to 1,500.
“Japanese stocks still have big upside,” said Miyuki Kashima, head of Japanese equity investment at BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Ltd., which oversees about $13 billion. “The correlation with the currency will weaken and the market will become more linked to earnings, like it was in the past.”
The index’s ratio of 14.3 times estimated earnings compares with the average valuation of 28.7 over the last decade, based on historical earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The 2.8-percentage-point narrowing in the ratio comes as multiples expand in developed countries. In the U.S., where a four-year bull market lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) more than 145 percent to a record high, stocks trade for 15 times forecast 2013 earnings, up from 13.1 in January. Valuations have risen 17 percent to 12.9 for France’s CAC-40 Index and 13 percent to 12.8 in the U.K’s FTSE 100, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Optimism about Abe’s policies has prompted analysts to push profit projections up 16 percent in 2013, leaving them within 6 percent of their level in February 2007, the year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when the Topix reached a 16-year high of 1,816.97. Even though more than $650 billion has been restored to Japanese share values since December, the gauge remains 37 percent below the 2007 level.
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World Gaining Faith in Japan as Topix Index Gets Cheaper - Bloomberg
Dizionario Italiano-Inglese - WordReference.com
Japanese shares are getting cheaper faster than any developed market as global investors regain faith in the world’s third-largest economy, with valuations declining even as the benchmark Topix index rallies.
The price-earnings ratio for the nation’s companies dropped to 14.3 times estimated profits from 17.1 at the start of 2013 because the Topix’s 34 percent surge, the biggest among 24 developed countries tracked by Bloomberg, has failed to keep up with analyst forecasts for 60 percent income growth. Nowhere have valuations contracted faster than in Japan. Multiples have increased in the U.S., France and the U.K.
...
“This time is for real,” Sergi Martin Amoros, who helps oversee $4 billion as chief executive officer of Credit Andorra Asset Management in Andorra, said in a Sept. 6 phone interview. “Their previous efforts were never accompanied by such a decisive monetary policy and the government’s willingness to commit to structural reforms is also something we haven’t seen before. This is the real one.”
Credit Andorra made its first Japanese investments in “many years” this quarter, he said
...
Stocks rallied last week, with the Topix climbing 3.8 percent to 1,147.82 for the biggest advance in two months. Sony Corp. and Honda Motor Co. (7267), companies that get more than 65 percent of sales outside Japan, surged more than 5 percent. The benchmark gauge for Japanese shares has gained 34 percent in 2013 and the 59 percent rise since November is the biggest advance in a quarter century.
“We’re positive on Japanese equities,” Stephen Corry, Hong Kong-based chief investment strategist at LGT Group, a private banking and asset-management firm that oversees about $115 billion, said in a phone interview Sept. 6. “We’ll continue to see more positive earnings revisions. Abe wants to leave a legacy in Japanese politics as the man who altered the economy and that’s encouraging.”
Foreigners speculating that Abe will succeed in stimulating economic growth and halting deflation have been pouring money into the Tokyo stock market. They added $93 billion to holdings this year, Finance Ministry data show.
Topix companies will earn a combined 80.48 yen a share this year, up from 50.29 yen in 2012 and 38.05 yen in 2011, when Japan had its biggest earthquake and nuclear disaster, according to more than 6,000 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Fifteen of 18 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the gauge to rise by year-end, with the median forecast for a 11 percent increase to 1,270. Nomura Holdings Inc. is the most bullish, projecting a 31 percent jump to 1,500.
“Japanese stocks still have big upside,” said Miyuki Kashima, head of Japanese equity investment at BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Ltd., which oversees about $13 billion. “The correlation with the currency will weaken and the market will become more linked to earnings, like it was in the past.”
The index’s ratio of 14.3 times estimated earnings compares with the average valuation of 28.7 over the last decade, based on historical earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The 2.8-percentage-point narrowing in the ratio comes as multiples expand in developed countries. In the U.S., where a four-year bull market lifted the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) more than 145 percent to a record high, stocks trade for 15 times forecast 2013 earnings, up from 13.1 in January. Valuations have risen 17 percent to 12.9 for France’s CAC-40 Index and 13 percent to 12.8 in the U.K’s FTSE 100, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Optimism about Abe’s policies has prompted analysts to push profit projections up 16 percent in 2013, leaving them within 6 percent of their level in February 2007, the year before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., when the Topix reached a 16-year high of 1,816.97. Even though more than $650 billion has been restored to Japanese share values since December, the gauge remains 37 percent below the 2007 level.
...
World Gaining Faith in Japan as Topix Index Gets Cheaper - Bloomberg
Dizionario Italiano-Inglese - WordReference.com