LUP1051
Guest
lo si spera e me lo auguro per stube e quant'altri ancora sul titolo.
...l'impressione è che,,,,campa cavallo............
Buona Pasqua, auguri.
Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro. (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
lo si spera e me lo auguro per stube e quant'altri ancora sul titolo.
...l'impressione è che,,,,campa cavallo............
Buona Pasqua, auguri.
lupomar
Forumer attivo
Intanto Bank of Ireland ha annunciato un aumento di capitale...
http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubri...766324848.html
Bank of Ireland pronto aumento capitale
Istituto mettera' sul mercato titoli per 1,9 miliardi
26 aprile, 14:06
Bank of Ireland pronto aumento capitale (ANSA) - ROMA, 26 APR - Bank of Ireland ha preparato un aumento di capitale fino a 3,4 mld di euro per far fronte all'aumento delle perdite sui prestiti ipotecari. L'istituto mettera' sul mercato titoli per 1,9 mld in aggiunta ad un collocamento di 500 mln riservato a investitori istituzionali e ad un collocamento di 1,04 mld allo Stato. Con l'operazione, la quota detenuta dal governo irlandese arrivera' a un massimo del 36% dall'attuale 34%.
http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubri...766324848.html
Bank of Ireland pronto aumento capitale
Istituto mettera' sul mercato titoli per 1,9 miliardi
26 aprile, 14:06
Bank of Ireland pronto aumento capitale (ANSA) - ROMA, 26 APR - Bank of Ireland ha preparato un aumento di capitale fino a 3,4 mld di euro per far fronte all'aumento delle perdite sui prestiti ipotecari. L'istituto mettera' sul mercato titoli per 1,9 mld in aggiunta ad un collocamento di 500 mln riservato a investitori istituzionali e ad un collocamento di 1,04 mld allo Stato. Con l'operazione, la quota detenuta dal governo irlandese arrivera' a un massimo del 36% dall'attuale 34%.
Imark
Forumer storico
Notizie fresche sulla finanza strutturata derivata dall'immobiliare irlandese... dai dati, mi sembra che prevalgano ancora i rischi di peggioramento, piuttosto che le prospettive di miglioramento...
Moody's: First Losses Materialise In Irish Prime RMBS Portfolios
Irish Prime RMBS Indices - March 2010
Frankfurt, May 20, 2010 -- Delinquencies continued to increase in Irish Prime RMBS transactions in March, says Moody's Investors Service in its latest index report for the sector. 3.8% of the outstanding Irish Prime RMBS portfolios were more than 90 days delinquent in March 2010. This compares with 2.1% in March 2009. Loans delinquent for more than 360 days accounted for 0.9% of the outstanding portfolios in March, up from 0.4% a year ago. The total redemption rate has shown little movement since March 2009 and ended March 2010 at 4.9%, while in 2007 and earlier the value was consistently above 15%.
Some portfolios have recorded up to 7.3% of loans that have been more than 90 days delinquent. Up to 2.8% of these portfolios have been delinquent for more than 360 days. Nevertheless, Irish prime RMBS transactions contain only small numbers of properties which have been repossessed by the servicers.
"While the two non-conforming RMBS transactions started recording losses in late 2008, Irish prime portfolios have not shown any substantial losses until recently. In March 2010, Celtic 12 recorded the first principal loss in the portfolio," says Georgij Ludmirskij a Moody's Associate Analyst. "However, the excess spread in the transaction was sufficiently high to cover the loss and to increase the reserve fund up to the new target balance. The reserve fund target in Celtic transactions increases by a proportion of the loans, which are more than 12 months delinquent," explains Mr. Ludmirskij.
House prices have fallen by 33.1% from the peak reached in March 2007. The contracting economy and negative credit growth point towards further declining demand for housing and further drops in house prices. Moody'sEconomy.com expects house prices to fall another 18% before resuming growth in Q2 2013. Sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not expected to return before late 2010 and Moody'sEconomy.com expects GDP to contract by 1% in 2010 as a whole. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 13.8% in H1 2010.
While the low interest rates have helped many borrowers to stay current, Moody'sEconomy.com does not expect the demand for credit to increase until the labour market starts to recover in the second half of the year.
Moody's outlook for the Irish RMBS market is negative (see the report "EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2009 Review and 2010 Outlook", January 2010).
As of March 2010, 18 Irish prime RMBS transactions with a total pool balance of EUR42.6 billion were outstanding which compares with 15 transactions with a total pool balance of EUR38.6 billion 12 months ago. One Irish RMBS transaction closed and was rated by Moody's in April. However, it contains more than 50% non owner occupied mortgages, and therefore is not included in the index.
Starting July 2010 Moody's Irish Prime RMBS indices will be published mid-month on a quarterly basis. The indices can be found on OpenDNS in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of Industry/Sector Research.
Moody's: First Losses Materialise In Irish Prime RMBS Portfolios
Irish Prime RMBS Indices - March 2010
Frankfurt, May 20, 2010 -- Delinquencies continued to increase in Irish Prime RMBS transactions in March, says Moody's Investors Service in its latest index report for the sector. 3.8% of the outstanding Irish Prime RMBS portfolios were more than 90 days delinquent in March 2010. This compares with 2.1% in March 2009. Loans delinquent for more than 360 days accounted for 0.9% of the outstanding portfolios in March, up from 0.4% a year ago. The total redemption rate has shown little movement since March 2009 and ended March 2010 at 4.9%, while in 2007 and earlier the value was consistently above 15%.
Some portfolios have recorded up to 7.3% of loans that have been more than 90 days delinquent. Up to 2.8% of these portfolios have been delinquent for more than 360 days. Nevertheless, Irish prime RMBS transactions contain only small numbers of properties which have been repossessed by the servicers.
"While the two non-conforming RMBS transactions started recording losses in late 2008, Irish prime portfolios have not shown any substantial losses until recently. In March 2010, Celtic 12 recorded the first principal loss in the portfolio," says Georgij Ludmirskij a Moody's Associate Analyst. "However, the excess spread in the transaction was sufficiently high to cover the loss and to increase the reserve fund up to the new target balance. The reserve fund target in Celtic transactions increases by a proportion of the loans, which are more than 12 months delinquent," explains Mr. Ludmirskij.
House prices have fallen by 33.1% from the peak reached in March 2007. The contracting economy and negative credit growth point towards further declining demand for housing and further drops in house prices. Moody'sEconomy.com expects house prices to fall another 18% before resuming growth in Q2 2013. Sustained gross domestic product (GDP) growth is not expected to return before late 2010 and Moody'sEconomy.com expects GDP to contract by 1% in 2010 as a whole. The unemployment rate is expected to peak at 13.8% in H1 2010.
While the low interest rates have helped many borrowers to stay current, Moody'sEconomy.com does not expect the demand for credit to increase until the labour market starts to recover in the second half of the year.
Moody's outlook for the Irish RMBS market is negative (see the report "EMEA ABS & RMBS: 2009 Review and 2010 Outlook", January 2010).
As of March 2010, 18 Irish prime RMBS transactions with a total pool balance of EUR42.6 billion were outstanding which compares with 15 transactions with a total pool balance of EUR38.6 billion 12 months ago. One Irish RMBS transaction closed and was rated by Moody's in April. However, it contains more than 50% non owner occupied mortgages, and therefore is not included in the index.
Starting July 2010 Moody's Irish Prime RMBS indices will be published mid-month on a quarterly basis. The indices can be found on OpenDNS in the Structured Finance sub-directory under the Research & Ratings tab, under the Structured Indices sub-category of Industry/Sector Research.
discipline
Forumer storico
News su Anglo Irish Bank
Anglo gets further €2bn in capital
CIARA O'BRIEN and CHARLIE TAYLOR
Mon, May 31, 2010
Anglo Irish Bank has received a further €2 billion in Government funding, the bank confirmed today.
The capital contribution announced today is in addition to €8.3 billion the State-owned bank received on March 31st, when it was issued with a promissory note for that amount.
However, the note provided for adjustment instruments that could amend the original amount of the note. Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan increased the amount by €2 billion to €10.3 billion, the bank said in a statement.
This additional capital was received on May 28th.
The capital contribution was authorised by the European Commission on March 31st, 2010 under EU state aid rules. The requirement arises out of additional losses resulting from the level of the discount on the first tranche of Anglo’s loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and further impairments on the remaining loan book.
The capital support is being provided by the State in the form of a promissory note, payable over a number of years into the future. In essence this means the amount will be paid over a period of 10 to 15 years, thereby hopefully reducing the impact on the Exchequer this year and stretching the payments into the future.
Mr Lenihan previously provided €4 billion to Anglo Irish Bank in 2009.
Fine Gael said the decision to give further finance to Anglo would "horrify" taxpayers.
“This confirms the worst of our fears about Brian Lenihan’s strategy for Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister expects to bail out the bank with ever larger sums of taxpayers’ money. Yet the bank guarantee is sucking us into an ever-deeper recapitalisation of Anglo Irish as new losses continue to be identified in the bank’s loan book," said the party's finance spokesman and deputy leader, Richard Bruton.
“As taxpayers brace themselves for €3 billion in tax increases and cuts in the next Budget they will be appalled at the casual way in which Minister Lenihan has tipped another €2 billion into Anglo Irish. This is dead money which only adds to Ireland’s indebtedness,” he added.
In a statement issued this afternoon, Mr Lenihan said Anglo’s restructuring plan is being submitted to the European Commission today.
Separately, the European Commission said today it has extended the banking guarantee covering Irish banks until the end of June.
The guarantee is "an appropriate means of remedying a serious disturbance in the Irish economy," the commission said in a statement on its website.
Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan said Ireland's biggest banks will be "fixed" by the end of the year as the economy edges out of a recession.
"People may not fully internalise and appreciate that we've fixed the banks until they suck it and see," Mr Honohan said in an interview. "It may be some months before the market fully realises that this is working out."
© 2010 irishtimes.com
Anglo gets further €2bn in capital
CIARA O'BRIEN and CHARLIE TAYLOR
Mon, May 31, 2010
Anglo Irish Bank has received a further €2 billion in Government funding, the bank confirmed today.
The capital contribution announced today is in addition to €8.3 billion the State-owned bank received on March 31st, when it was issued with a promissory note for that amount.
However, the note provided for adjustment instruments that could amend the original amount of the note. Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan increased the amount by €2 billion to €10.3 billion, the bank said in a statement.
This additional capital was received on May 28th.
The capital contribution was authorised by the European Commission on March 31st, 2010 under EU state aid rules. The requirement arises out of additional losses resulting from the level of the discount on the first tranche of Anglo’s loans transferred to the National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) and further impairments on the remaining loan book.
The capital support is being provided by the State in the form of a promissory note, payable over a number of years into the future. In essence this means the amount will be paid over a period of 10 to 15 years, thereby hopefully reducing the impact on the Exchequer this year and stretching the payments into the future.
Mr Lenihan previously provided €4 billion to Anglo Irish Bank in 2009.
Fine Gael said the decision to give further finance to Anglo would "horrify" taxpayers.
“This confirms the worst of our fears about Brian Lenihan’s strategy for Anglo Irish Bank. The Minister expects to bail out the bank with ever larger sums of taxpayers’ money. Yet the bank guarantee is sucking us into an ever-deeper recapitalisation of Anglo Irish as new losses continue to be identified in the bank’s loan book," said the party's finance spokesman and deputy leader, Richard Bruton.
“As taxpayers brace themselves for €3 billion in tax increases and cuts in the next Budget they will be appalled at the casual way in which Minister Lenihan has tipped another €2 billion into Anglo Irish. This is dead money which only adds to Ireland’s indebtedness,” he added.
In a statement issued this afternoon, Mr Lenihan said Anglo’s restructuring plan is being submitted to the European Commission today.
Separately, the European Commission said today it has extended the banking guarantee covering Irish banks until the end of June.
The guarantee is "an appropriate means of remedying a serious disturbance in the Irish economy," the commission said in a statement on its website.
Meanwhile, Central Bank Governor Patrick Honohan said Ireland's biggest banks will be "fixed" by the end of the year as the economy edges out of a recession.
"People may not fully internalise and appreciate that we've fixed the banks until they suck it and see," Mr Honohan said in an interview. "It may be some months before the market fully realises that this is working out."
© 2010 irishtimes.com
Imark
Forumer storico
Anglo Irish Bank pianifica l'istituzione di una bad bank quale misura ultronea rispetto al conferimento di asset a Nama.
Anglo boss admits €22bn injection 'will never be seen again'
Thursday, 17 June 2010
The "lion's share" of the €22bn (£18bn) being pumped into state-owned Anglo Irish Bank will "never be seen again", the bank's chief executive Mike Aynsley has admitted.
The statement came during a high-octane Oireachtas committee meeting in Dublin, at which Anglo's top brass also revealed that €550m of the loans they have transferred to the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) had been written down "to zero".
Other highlights of the meeting included predictions of further "horrendous" losses at Anglo this year, as another Nama-bound €9.5bn is written off and the bank's €35bn non-Nama loan book takes an additional hit.
Anglo chairman Alan Dukes, chief executive Mike Aynsley and chief financial officer Marteen Van Eden all made presentations to the meeting of the Oireachtas finance committee.
Anglo has already sent €9.3bn in loans in its first tranche transfer to Nama and will send another €26.3bn before the end of the year. A discount of 50% is expected across the whole debt pile.
"That money is not recoverable," Mr Aynsley said.
The Anglo trio also insisted that shutting down the bank early would not reduce the scale of losses. Anglo's preferred option - separating the bank into an 'Asset Co' or 'bad bank' that will be wound down and a trading 'Bank Co' or 'good bank' that will lend to SMEs - is the "least worst option", they argued.
Anglo boss admits €22bn injection 'will never be seen again'
Thursday, 17 June 2010
The statement came during a high-octane Oireachtas committee meeting in Dublin, at which Anglo's top brass also revealed that €550m of the loans they have transferred to the National Assets Management Agency (Nama) had been written down "to zero".
Other highlights of the meeting included predictions of further "horrendous" losses at Anglo this year, as another Nama-bound €9.5bn is written off and the bank's €35bn non-Nama loan book takes an additional hit.
Anglo chairman Alan Dukes, chief executive Mike Aynsley and chief financial officer Marteen Van Eden all made presentations to the meeting of the Oireachtas finance committee.
Anglo has already sent €9.3bn in loans in its first tranche transfer to Nama and will send another €26.3bn before the end of the year. A discount of 50% is expected across the whole debt pile.
"That money is not recoverable," Mr Aynsley said.
The Anglo trio also insisted that shutting down the bank early would not reduce the scale of losses. Anglo's preferred option - separating the bank into an 'Asset Co' or 'bad bank' that will be wound down and a trading 'Bank Co' or 'good bank' that will lend to SMEs - is the "least worst option", they argued.
discipline
Forumer storico
Ciao Mark, ho letto un articolo speculare sull'independent, l'unica differenza è che verso la fine fa un esplicito riferimento al debito subordinato di Anglo:
€22bn State bailout cash is gone, says Anglo chief - Irish, Business - Independent.ie
L'umore nei confronti della banca è chiaramente molto negativo, per avere un'idea riporto questo, ma ce ne sono tanti altri sullo stesso tono:
Anglo can be wound up without the sky falling in - Analysis, Opinion - Independent.ie
Una marea di denaro pubblico è stato pompato in Anglo (22mld di euro, più del budget per educazione e sanità!). Io credo che se avessero potuto disfarsi delle LT2, non importa se col Nama o con l'Asset Co., un colpo di spugna l'avrebbero già dato da un pezzo, per cui tengo sulle 2014. Vedere un richiamo dei bond sarà difficile, nessuno in Irlanda sarebbe favorevole, se non il management che lo metterebbe subito a bilancio come utile... voi che dite?
Imark
Forumer storico
Ciao Discipline, il punto è che l'anno prossimo temo saranno cavoli amari, sia per l'immobiliare IRL che UK, come effetto del tentativo di contenere i deficit pubblici ... lo stato irlandese fino ad oggi è stato stoico, ma resta il brocardo latino per il quale nemo ad impossibilia tenetur...
Personalmente credo che un richiamo sarebbe opportuno, ma non ho idea di quale sarà il limite per gli irlandesi. Per ora hanno fatto il massimo per salvare qualsiasi tipologia di bondholder ...
In effetti quando gli scandinavi, in analoghe condizioni di crisi immobiliare, eliminarono il debito subordinato delle banche (in DK lo hanno fatto anche nel 2008/9) non è morto nessuno...
discipline
Forumer storico
come hanno fatto, senza passare per il default?