Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[tommy271]

Ireland may need to save 7 bln eur in 2011 budget-Fin Ministry


DUBLIN | Thu Oct 21, 2010 8:25am EDT


DUBLIN Oct 21 (Reuters) - Ireland's finance ministry has presented the government with adjustment scenarios of up to 7 billion euros for the budget for 2011, the ministry said in a statement on Thursday.
"Given the current working macroeconomic forecast, indicative deficits were set out for consolidation packages of the order of 3 billion, 4.5 billion and 7 billion," the ministry said in a statement.
"At no point was any specific target given," it said after Fine Gael's finance spokesman Michael Noonan was quoted as saying that the Finance Department was seeking a consolidation effort of 7 billion euros in the budget due to be presented in December.

 

[tommy271]

Ireland records 14.4% deficit in 2009




CIARA O'BRIEN


Ireland had the largest budget deficit in the European Union region last year, new figures revealed today.
According to European statistics office Eurostat, the country's budget deficit was 14.4 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) last year, ahead of Spain at 11.1 per cent and Portugal at 9.3 per cent.

In the wider European Union, the UK came in second to Ireland, recording a shortfall of 11.4 per cent of GDP. The British government this week announced a raft of spending spending cuts intended to reduce the country's deficit and allow it to begin repaying debts.

Luxembourg had the smallest shortfall, at 0.7 per cent.

European finance ministers agreed on October 19th to toughen sanctions for breaches of fiscal rules, though stopped short of more automatic penalties some countries had demanded.

Some 24 member states recorded a worsening in their government deficit relative to GDP in 2009 compared with a year earlier. Only two - Estonia and Malta - showed an improvement.
Ireland was among the 11 states that had a debt to GDP ration in excess of 60 per cent at the end of 2009, at 65.5 per cent. This compares with 116 per cent in Italy, 76.1 per cent in Portugal and 68.2 per cent in the UK.

(Irish Times)

***
La previsione per il 2010 è un deficit/Pil al 32% (comprensivo dei salvataggi bancari) e un indebitamento complessivo intorno al 100%.

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, l’economia non ritrova ancora il motore del real-estate - 22/10/2010

La speranza degli agenti immobiliari irlandesi è che la crisi del settore abbia già toccato il fondo...



La speranza degli agenti immobiliari irlandesi è che la crisi del settore abbia già toccato il fondo. Ma non sono solo loro, nell’isola, ad incrociare le dita. Il real-estate e le costruzioni rivestono infatti un ruolo cruciale per l’economia intera, dal momento che contribuiscono al prodotto interno lordo per circa il 23%.

«Esiste un legame diretto tra l’evoluzione della ricchezza dell’Irlanda e i prezzi degli immobili», ha spiegato al quotidiano Le Monde Franck Doonan, direttore della rete di agenzie Era Ireland.

E se si considera che la costruzione di nuove case ha toccato il suo picco nel 2006 con 95 mila unità, per crollare poi a meno di 10 mila nel 2009 e quest’anno, si comprende la portata della questione.

La ripresa, inoltre, non sarà così semplice dal momento che il boom pre-crisi nel real-estate era stato alimentato in buona parte dall’arrivo di lavoratori migranti, principalmente dall’Europa dell’Est.

Persone che a causa della grave recessione hanno deciso di tornare in patria al ritmo di 5 mila partenze lo scorso anno e ben 60 mila dal 1 gennaio del 2010. «Ad essi vanno aggiunti anche i giovani irlandesi che espatriano alla fine dei loro studi», ha sottolineato Doonan.

Il risultato è stato un calo dei prezzi del 5% nel 2007, del 15% nel 2008 e del 21% nel 2009.

Complessivamente, dal suo picco il costo del mattone è sceso del 40% per gli immobili già esistenti e del 45% per quelli nuovi.

A completare il quadro ci sono poi il tasso di disoccupazione (che ha toccato il 13%) e la magrezza dei redditi, oltreché le difficoltà del settore bancario, nonostante la creazione della National Asset Management Agency, che ha già assorbito asset tossici dagli istituti di credito per 75 miliardi di euro.


(valori.it)

 

[tommy271]

Irlanda, tagli bilancio 2011-2014 oltre 7,5 miliardi di euro


I tagli del bilancio 2011-2014 approvato dal governo irlandese supererà significativamente i 7,5 miliardi di euro stimati inizialmente. Lo affermano fonti vicine al governo, confermando i tagli saranno superiori ai 10 miliardi.
Il primo ministro irlandese Brian Cowen ha confermato che il budget 2011-2014 subirà una "correzione significativa", rifiutandosi però di rispondere a chi gli chiedeva se l'ammontare previsto potesse raddoppiare. Secondo alcuni analisti i tagli per il 2011 dovrebbero attestarsi tra i e i 6 miliardi di euro.
Il ministro delle Finanze Brian Lenihan ha negato l'affermazione di Michael Noonan, portavoce del partito d'opposizione Fine Gael, per cui il governo ridurrà 7 miliardi di euro di spesa nel solo 2011.
Lenihan ha però confermato che per il 2011 saranno necessari "risparmi più significativi" dei 3 miliardi di euro stimati in un primo tempo.


(Milano Finanza)

 

[tommy271]

Anglo Irish, Italia esclusa da offerta scambio bond sub 20 cent

venerdì 22 ottobre 2010 13:19



DUBLINO, 22 ottobre (Reuters) - Anglo Irish Bank [ANGIB.UL] ha offerto di cambiare circa 1,6 milairdi di euro di debito subordinato a un costo di 20 centesimi di euro per cercare di raccogliere un po' di capitale. L'offerta non è però valida per la Repubblica Italiana oltre che per gli Usa, si legge in un annuncio.


La banca, sotto controllo dello stato dallo scorso anno, costringerà inoltre gli obbligazionisti che non accetteranno questa offerta a prendere solo un centesimo per ogni 1.000 euro per poter riscattare i loro bond a tasso variabile con scadenze 2014, 2016 e 2017, spiegava un comunicato ieri.
Per il prospetto cliccare su [ID:nRSU7992Ua].


Il governo irlandese ha detto il mese scorso che il suo piano per il salvataggio di AI potrebbe costare fino a 34 miliardi di euro, nel quadro del peggior scenario, e ha ribadito la sua richiesta che i detentori di bond subordinati della banca dovrebbero condividere il peso.


***
Non è un'ultima ora ... ma mancava tra i post.

 

[tommy271]

Anglo offer on subordinated debt 'tantamount to default'


By Laura Noonan

Tuesday October 26 2010



ANGLO Irish Bank's offer to buy out investors who hold risky subordinated debt is "tantamount to a default", a Canadian ratings agency said yesterday.
The comments from DBRS came as top tier ratings agency Fitch described the Anglo offer as "coercive", citing the penal terms for those who refuse to participate.
BNP Paribas, meanwhile, said the Anglo offer could trigger payouts of $420m (€300m) on so-called credit default swap contracts as investors call in the insurance they took out on the bank's debt.

Anglo is offering investors who hold €1.6bn in risky subordinated debt 20c in the euro. Those who refuse to take up the offer will get 1c for every €1,000 of bonds they hold at face value.
"DBRS views the proposed exchange as offering bondholders limited options," the ratings agency said, as it signalled plans to cut Anglo's non-senior ratings one notch to D for "default".

The concerns were echoed by ratings agency Fitch, which described Anglo's offer as a "coercive debt exchange", citing the Government's insistence that subordinated bondholders make a "significant contribution to burden-sharing" as well as the "conditions of the exchange" proposed.
Fitch made an "exception" to its normal procedure and stopped short of placing Anglo's issuer default rating on "restrictive default", citing the "expression of continuing support for senior creditors by the minister".
A spokeswoman for the agency was unable to say how many times Fitch had made this exception, but cited one other recent example in the UK.

Meanwhile, BNP Paribas yesterday predicted the Anglo deal could trigger payments of as much as $420m on credit default swap contracts investors took to insure against Anglo's default.
London-based BNP analyst Olivia Freiser said investors would have to approve changes to the terms of their bonds, triggering a so-called "restructuring credit event" on swaps linked to all of the bank's debt.
"Most people will feel compelled to exchange," Ms Freiser said, adding that the Irish Government is "facing enormous political pressure not to treat bondholders too well".

Credit-default swaps insuring €10m of Anglo's junior debt for five years cost €7m in advance and €500,000 annually, BNP Paribas prices show.
Anglo's subordinated debt has been the subject of fierce debate, with opposition politicians and commentators sharply criticising the Government's decision to include the risky bonds in the original bank guarantee scheme.

The debt fell out of the guarantee at the end of September, and Finance Minister Brian Lenihan has come under fierce pressure to "share the pain" of Anglo's €30bn collapse with subordinated debt holders.

Mr Lenihan has publicly acknowledged that holders of Anglo's riskiest debt were rewarded with higher interest rates in recognition of the risk they were taking and therefore should also accept the downside risk.
Mr Lenihan has repeatedly insisted, however, that those who hold Anglo's less risky "senior" debt should not have losses forced on them since they have the same legal status as depositers. (Additional reporting Bloomberg)

- Laura Noonan

Irish Independent

 

[tommy271]

NAMA makes €140m profit on Anglo loan deal


By Laura Noonan

Tuesday October 26 2010



THE National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) has turned a €140m profit on a loan it bought from Anglo Irish Bank for just €40m.
The massive windfall, which will raise eyebrows across banking and political circles, marks one of the first asset sales to be secured by the 'bad bank'.
Full details of the transaction have yet to emerge, with both NAMA and Anglo declining to comment last night.


However, the Irish Independent understands Anglo had valued the loan at €80m before NAMA took it over for €40m.
The loan was secured on a commercial property in London which was sold to a Middle Eastern investor for €180m.
All that €180m will now flow into NAMA's coffers, leaving the State's bad bank with a €140m profit on the loan.


Sources last night described the outcome of the deal as "exceptional".
It is understood the investor also owned adjoining buildings and was therefore willing to pay a premium for the site.
But the windfall will still raise questions about NAMA's sweeping powers and the potentially devastating impact they could have on banks stung with massive losses.
Every €1m NAMA underpays for Anglo's loans will go directly to the cost of the bank's massive bailout, which is billed at between €29bn to €34bn.
Some sources described the deal as a triumph for the NAMA project, suggesting the state agency had gotten far more value from the loan than any one bank could have.


Developer

The borrower at the centre of the deal is understood to be dealing with Nama on a raft of loans that were originally given by several different banks.
The original value of the Anglo loan is unknown, but if Anglo was owed less than €180m then it would only have gotten back the amount it was owed.


Crucially, there would have been no one to force the developer to use the rest of the money to pay back other debts that had nothing to do with the building he sold. The extra money could have been used to fund a luxurious lifestyle or could have been channelled overseas.
Under NAMA, however, all a developer's debts are bundled together. If a developer makes €200m from selling a building he only owed €170m on, all €200m will flow into NAMA where it will be offset against his total debts from different banks.

Holding loans from across several different banks also means NAMA is empowered with a variety of securities, including personal guarantees, which can be used as leverage to compel borrowers to co-operate with asset sales.
The €180m deal makes up a substantial portion of the €500m in asset sales Nama expects to complete by the end of the year.


- Laura Noonan
Irish Independent

 

[tommy271]

Ireland Doubles Budget Savings Target to 15 Billion Euros

By Simone Meier and Finbarr Flynn - Oct 26, 2010 7:18 PM GMT+0200 Tue Oct 26 17:18:13 GMT 2010



Ireland’s government plans 15 billion euros ($21 billion) of austerity measures over four years, twice its previous target, to convince investors it can get its budget deficit under control and cope with the cost of a banking bailout.
The budget cuts are necessary to push the country’s shortfall below the European Union limit of 3 percent of gross domestic product by 2014, the government in Dublin said in an e- mailed statement today. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan will present details of the plan next month.

The higher target reflects a weaker economic recovery than the government had expected, Lenihan said. Investors are concerned that the government won’t be able to push down the deficit after it said the shortfall will reach about 32 percent of GDP in 2010, due to a one-time “spike” from bank-bailout costs. Still, Lenihan has said that the country won’t have to tap the EU’s 750 billion-euro rescue fund.

“A 15 billion-euro figure seems to reflect the expectation that growth isn’t going to deliver much of the adjustment,” said Austin Hughes, chief economist at KBC Ireland in Dublin. “The problem is that the measures themselves could cause growth to be even weaker. The issue now is to find ways to ensure the economy grows.”

The government canceled its remaining debt auctions for this year after the yield on 10-year Irish bonds rose to a record 454 basis points above benchmark German bunds last month. The yield premium on Ireland’s 10-year debt fell to 393 basis points today from 399 basis points yesterday.

The government may not be able to count on faster economic growth to help boost revenue. Ireland will have a “weak” recovery, with exports the only positive contributor to growth next year, Dublin-based securities firm Davy said today. Irish GDP may rise 0.3 percent this year, it forecast.
At the same time, the country may need to pay 50 billion euros to rescue lenders including Anglo Irish Bank Corp., it said in September.

It’s “neither credible nor realistic to delay these measures,” the government said. “To do so would further undermine confidence in our ability to meet our obligations and responsibilities and delay a return to sustainable growth and full employment in our economy.”


(Bloomberg)

 

[tommy271]

S&P downgrades Anglo bonds' value

27 ottobre 2010

SIMON CARSWELL


ANGLO IRISH Bank’s subordinated bonds were downgraded to a default credit rating due to the bank’s 20 cent in the euro offer to exchange the debt.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded Anglo’s dated subordinated bonds to the rating of ‘D’ from ‘CCC’ on its view that the bank’s offer was “a distressed exchange and tantamount to default” by the nationalised bank.

Anglo has offered subordinated bondholders the opportunity to exchange their debt at a discount of 80 per cent into new one-year Government-guaranteed bonds.
Bondholders will get a fraction of what is on offer if they decline the proposal – they will receive just 1 cent for every €1,000 face value of Anglo debt that they hold.

“We consider this to be a ‘distressed exchange’ because bondholders will receive significantly less than the original promise,” said the agency.
The €1.6 billion worth of bonds were also downgraded because the agency said Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan had said he was prepared to legislate “to ensure that subordinated bondholders share appropriately in the financial burden of rescuing the bank”.

The Government said last month that Anglo would cost the State €29.3 billion and up to €34.3 billion in a worst-case scenario where the property market failed to recover for a period of 10 years.
Mr Lenihan has said he expects the bank’s subordinated bondholders to make a significant contribution to the cost of Anglo.
The bank has offered a small cash payout amounting to five cents in the euro to the holders of junior subordinated bondholders.

(Irish Times)

 

[tommy271]

Bank probe won't examine €7bn Anglo-IL&P transfer


By Laura Noonan

Wednesday October 27 2010



THE Commission of Investigation examining the banking collapse won't probe the €7bn back-to-back deposits that flowed between Anglo Irish Bank and Irish Life & Permanent at the peak of the crisis.
The massive deposits were used to conceal a collapse in Anglo's customer funds, helping the bank to present an artificially healthy set of results for the year to September 2008.

The arrangement has been steeped in controversy since it became public the following spring, with three of Irish Life & Permanent's (IL&P) most senior executives ultimately resigning over the issue.
Revelations about the deposits also shed light on the so-called 'green jersey' agenda that saw banks actively encouraged to help each other out to reinforce the stability of the overall financial system.

A garda investigation into the Anglo/IL&P transaction is ongoing, and it is one of the key matters on which they wish to interview exiled Anglo chief executive David Drumm.

Deposits

But despite the deposits' controversial role in the crisis, the Irish Independent has learned that the commission will not be looking at the arrangement.
Both Anglo and IL&P are understood to have been informed of the commission's decision in recent weeks, though spokespersons from both banks declined to comment last night.

The commission also failed to respond to questions on the topic.
A spokesman for the Department of Finance, which convened the commission earlier in the year, stressed that the probe was independent.
He also referred to a previous statement issued by the commission which said work would be carried out "confidentially and will not be commented on by the commission at any stage".

Headed by Finnish expert Peter Nyberg, the probe was billed as the definitive investigation into the banking collapse which could end up costing the nation close to €40bn.
Some sources suggested that the commission had ruled out the Anglo/IL&P transaction because it was already under investigation by the garda fraud squad.

Banking collapse

Others pointed out that almost all the controversial matters relating to the banking collapse were being investigated by a range of probes spanning agencies from the gardai to the Director of Corporate Enforcement.
If the commission decided only to investigate matters that weren't already being probed, its scope would be very limited, one source pointed out.

Some suggested that the commission was not looking at the Anglo/IL&P deal because it was "peripheral" to the overall question of why Ireland's banking system had come so close to implosion.
The commission's terms of reference are to "examine matters relating to corporate governance and risk management in each of the banks covered by the Government's guarantee up to the date of the Government's decision to nationalise Anglo Irish Bank".

The commission is also empowered to look at "policy lessons" that can be learned from the way the Government managed the economy.
The investigation is due to finish at the end of this month and report to the Dail and Senate by November 4.


Irish Independent