Obbligazioni bancarie Banche irlandesi: newsflow, ratings, bonds. Il fronte irlandese dell'Euro.

[discipline]

Hai messo il dito sulla piaga, IMHO. Perché secondo me le prospettive di ripagamento del nominale anche sui senior sono tutt'altro che certe una volta che siano finiti nella bad bank e privati di garanzia statale.

Il meccanismo di cui si parlava con Davide ha infatti l'effetto di sganciare il destino del debito sovrano irlandese da quello di Anglo, di consentire alla bad bank di funzionare senza ulteriori infusioni di denaro pubblico, e dunque di tamponare l'emoraggia di cash, e di rinviare il problema dei senior unsecured, per i quali non mi sorprenderebbe vedere una qualche estensione cronologica della garanzia statale (magari fino a quel 2012 sempre più "data spartiacque" per la finanza).

O forse nessuna garanzia, dipendendo dalla struttura delle scadenze, se il cash ricevuto dalla good bank fosse sufficiente nei 24 mesi a fare fronte alle scadenze debitorie.

In ogni caso non mi sorprenderei se il bond emesso dalla bad verso la good fosse sovraordinato gerarchicamente ai senior unsecured che la bad erediterà da Anglo.

riporto uno specchietto che ho trovato su un altro forum:
T1 0.7mld
LT2 1.7mld
Senior 16mld

lungi da me peccare di ottimismo (innanzitutto su quale dei soggetti si farà carico del debito subordinato), ma nell'incertezza e con le quotazioni compresse, un buyback sul debito lt2 avrebbe un discreto successo, se politicamente non fosse un provvedimento impopolare e già bacchettato nell'occasione precedente...

Anglo Irish Chief Financial Officer Maarten van Eden said Sept. 8 that the bank had asked regulators for approval to buy back subordinated debt. The same day, Ireland Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the lender will be divided into so-called good and bad banks after losing 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in two years as property loans soured in the recession.

da: Anglo Irish Bank Subordinated Credit Swaps Rise After Good, Bad Bank Split - Bloomberg

 

[Imark]

riporto uno specchietto che ho trovato su un altro forum:
T1 0.7mld
LT2 1.7mld
Senior 16mld

lungi da me peccare di ottimismo, ma nell'incertezza e con le quotazioni compresse, un buyback sul debito lt2 avrebbe un discreto successo, se politicamente non fosse un provvedimento impopolare e già bacchettato nell'occasione precedente...

Anglo Irish Chief Financial Officer Maarten van Eden said Sept. 8 that the bank had asked regulators for approval to buy back subordinated debt. The same day, Ireland Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said the lender will be divided into so-called good and bad banks after losing 20 billion euros ($25 billion) in two years as property loans soured in the recession.

da: Anglo Irish Bank Subordinated Credit Swaps Rise After Good, Bad Bank Split - Bloomberg

Sì, le cifre sono quelle, c'è qualche post sopra uno specchietto postato da me, insieme con la semstrale ultima della banca.

E' vero che gli LT2 hanno le loro caratteristiche, per cui o le modifichi autoritativamente, per legge, oppure puoi evitare di pagare di norma solo ove intervenga il default.

Per legge puoi fare tutto, se però gli irlandesi credessero che un tale intervento (che consentisse di non pagare la cedola sugli LT2 e/o di declassarli a maggiore subordinazione) verrebbe ad incidere la possibilità per le altre banche nazionali di emettere in futuro debito subordinato, per via di un precedente, allora non gli resterebbe che il buyback...

Sono d'accordo sul fatto che prima o poi verrà meno il consenso popolare al salvataggio con il denaro pubblico, specie in un paese come l'Irlanda in cui la cosa ha già portato a tagli delle retribuzioni pubbliche, incrementi delle imposte ed altre misure "tangibili", perché le vedi nel tuo portafoglio....

 

[discipline]

New Anglo bonds risk 'junk' status label

Bonds in the new Asset Recovery Bank, which will replace Anglo Irish Bank in time, could be reduced to 'junk' status if the Government does not give bondholders specific guarantees, Moody's has warned.
Meanwhile, the wind-down of this recovery bank is going to take between seven to eight years, political sources indicated last night.
Moody's said "significant uncertainties'' remained about the plan to split the bank into an Asset Recovery Bank and a savings bank, known as the Funding Bank. The agency said unless government guarantees were provided for senior bonds, a downgrade could result, to even sub-investment level, otherwise known as 'junk'.
Its analyst Ross Abercromby noted that the blanket guarantee of all senior debt expires at the end of the month, although many issues are covered under a separate arrangement known as the Eligible Liabilities Guarantee. Equally, if guarantees are given, an upgrade is possible.
The agency said there were two key uncertainties facing the new entity -- whether its assets will deteriorate further and, secondly, will it gain European Commission approval. It said Anglo had "poor standalone fundamentals" and would likely need further capital.
Announcing the break-up of Anglo this week, the Government was unable to say how much the plan would cost the taxpayer or how long it would take to implement an "orderly workout" of the bank's loans.
Pressed on a timeframe for the wind-down, Mr Lenihan said it would be "difficult to see it going beyond 15 years".
But government sources said last night it was estimated that it would take "seven to eight years" to work out the loans.
Under the plan the €36bn worth of business loans held by Anglo will go into the Asset Recovery Bank and the €46bn worth of deposits will go into a Funding Bank. Already, €36bn worth of loans has been transferred to the National Asset Management Agency.


New Anglo bonds risk 'junk' status label - Irish, Business - Independent.ie


E di oggi c'è anche questo:

Anglo runs high risk of default in next five years

 

[Imark]

Intanto il NAMA lancia un programma di Commercial Paper, munito di garanzia dello Stato, per 2,5 mld euro.

 

[Imark]

Ecco il testo della rating action di Moody's su Anglo Irish. Si stigmatizza quanto si era detto, tenendo in osservazione il debito senior unsecured in attesa di sapere principalmente se vi sarà supporto statale oppure meno.

Moody's maintains review on Anglo Irish Bank

Junior subordinated debt downgraded to C from Caa2

London, 10 September 2010 -- Moody's Investors Service said today that it is maintaining its review for possible downgrade on the A3/P-1 deposit and senior debt ratings, and on the Ba1 subordinated debt rating of Anglo Irish Bank Corporation (Anglo Irish). The junior subordinated debt is downgraded to C from Caa2. The backed-Aa2 rating (stable outlook) on the government guaranteed debt, the C rating on the bank's tier 1 securities and the E bank financial strength rating (BFSR) - mapping to Caa1 on the long-term scale - are unaffected by this rating action.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The new plan of the Irish government is to split Anglo Irish (see below for more details) into a "Funding Bank" (FB) to which all deposits will be transferred and an "Asset Recovery Bank" (ARB) which will retain the assets that are not transferred to NAMA, together with the remaining liabilities, including all rated debt. At this stage, several uncertainties remain, including a) availability of ongoing support for the ARB and its liabilities in view of likely further deterioration of its asset base; and b) European Commission approval and any attached conditions. As a result significant uncertainties still remain.

The review for possible downgrade on Anglo Irish's senior debt instruments will therefore continue and will focus primarily on the potential support from the Irish government, as well as on the final form of the bank and any potential implications for its debt.

Given the proposed long-term wind-down of the bank, and the bank's poor standalone fundamentals, as evidenced by the E BFSR and the likelihood that the bank will require further capital, there is significant downward pressure on the ratings. As a result, if effective guarantees are not put in place for the senior debt, then these ratings would almost certainly move down, potentially to the sub-investment grade range. We would note, however, that there is the potential for the senior ratings to be upgraded if, following the reorganisation, guarantees are put in place by the Irish government, although this would also depend on the form that those guarantees may take.

The review on the dated subordinated rating also remains in place, pending the final details of the reorganisation. In Ireland, as in most countries, the authorities have so far not imposed losses on dated subordinated debt outside of a liquidation scenario. However, due to the possibility of greater burden sharing at Anglo Irish and the longer maturity structure of this debt, we believe that it may be at significantly greater risk.

DOWNGRADE OF THE JUNIOR SUBORDINATED DEBT
The junior subordinated debt of the bank has been downgraded to C. This reflects that coupons have been deferred on these instruments and that the likelihood of these cumulative coupons being restarted is very low, post the likely reorganisation. This concludes the review on the junior subordinated, initiated on December 8, 2009.

Moody's aims to complete the review of the bank's ratings following the clarification of any support mechanisms for ARB's liabilities, even if some final uncertainty remains until the European Commission has approved the bank's restructuring plan.

The principal methodologies used in rating Anglo Irish Bank were Bank Financial Strength Ratings: Global Methodology published in February 2007, Incorporation of Joint-Default Analysis into Moody's Bank Ratings: A Refined Methodology published in March 2007, and Moody's Guidelines for Rating Bank Hybrid Securities and Subordinated Debt published in November 2009. Other methodologies and factors that may have been considered in the process of rating this issuer can also be found on Moody's website.

 

[fabriziof]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7189814a-bd04 ... ab49a.html


Please leave Anglo Irish bonds in a bog

By John Dizard

Published: September 12 2010 11:12 | Last updated: September 12 2010 11:12

Looking back, investors in bank debt should have known that something called “Anglo Irish” wouldn’t be around forever, what with the country having been independent for nearly 90 years.

Next month, Anglo Irish Bank’s subordinated debt holders may have their own version of The Troubles. The European Commission might exercise its power to relieve the Irish state of some of its overly-broad guarantees of bank obligations.


Should this happen, it will come as a surprise to some of the recent speculative buyers of Anglo Irish debt. Last Thursday, the price of some Anglo Irish subordinated floating rate notes rose by over 30 per cent, to 27.5 cents on the euro, on an announcement that the bank’s board had asked the government to approve a buy-back of the paper. The new buyers may wish they had waited before seizing this opportunity. Euro-officialdom may prevent the buy-back from going ahead, pour encourager les autres.

If the Anglo Irish bondholders finally do sink into a bog, their fate will be noted by holders of other bank bonds. The European authorities are aware of this, and may use the opportunity to reintroduce bank default risk, forcing investors to improve their homework.

While an EU bond bail-out veto may lead to another short term crisis in European bank issuance, it would open the way to a reconstitution of the financial system on a sounder basis.

Up to now, US regulators and policy people have privately touted their system’s apparently stronger balance sheet. However, the example of an Anglo Irish bond default may force them, ultimately, to impose similar reductions in principal value, on US banks’ bondholders.

At the time of the financial crisis in the autumn of 2008, the Irish government gave a two- year blanket guarantee to all the deposits and debt obligations of the country’s banks. This was good for the bank bondholders, but bad for Irish sovereign credit, which rose to crisis-level spreads last week as the market raised its estimate of the prospective losses engendered by the guarantees. The state’s ultimate losses on the now-nationalised Anglo Irish Bank are estimated at about €25bn ($31.8bn), or over €5,600 for every man, woman, and child. That might make it, proportionately, the worst financial institution in the world. For now.

Last week, Brian Lenihan, finance minister, issued a careful statement on the prospective winding-up of Anglo Irish. He reiterated the state’s support for depositors, but was less definitive in backing the bondholders.

The most interesting phrase was that the winding up plan “is being prepared for submission to the [European] Commission for approval”. The EC’s Competition Commissioner, Joaquin Almunia, issued a simultaneous statement that “a number of important aspects need to be clarified, and a new notification received, before the Commission is in a position to finalise its assessment and to take a decision”.

In plain language, that means while Anglo Irish might propose a buy-back of its subordinated bonds, and that buy-back might be included in an Irish government proposal, Brussels might not approve the plan. That would be consistent with growing support for bondholder “risk sharing” in the European policy community. The Irish government would then be able to say that it was forced to comply with Europe’s restrictions on subsidy payments, in this case to bank bondholders.

It is expected that the Commission, through Mr Almunia, will give its formal decision on the Anglo Irish plan in October. Coincidentally, that will come just about the time of the International Monetary Fund/World Bank meetings in Washington. There the governments of member countries are expected to agree a series of measures to expand the bail-out resources of supranational institutions and central banks. So if there is a European bank funding crisis as a consequence of a prospective Anglo Irish default, the financial supremos could write a gigantic cheque to cover any systemic risk.

While such fireworks would have much demonstration value, the actual prospective bondholder losses are not so large as to cause a systemic crisis. We’re not talking Lehman. Since the original issuance of the bank guarantees, the scope of the covered paper has been narrowed by extensions and amendments.

Deposits for all banks, including Anglo Irish, will continue to be covered, but after the end of this month, bonds issued before September 2008 that have yet to mature are at risk if a bank has insufficient means to back them.

After previous buy-backs, Anglo Irish has about €2.4bn of sub debt. Depending on which lawyer, official, or bank analyst you consult, another €5bn or so of senior debt might also be at risk if Europe disallows further Irish bail-outs.

A European veto of further bond guarantees could be a blessing for the Irish state and the citizens. It would draw a line under the country’s most serious liability. Please, Mr Almunia. Do the right thing.

 

[tommy271]

Un pò di colore:

Was Ireland’s Prime Minister Tired And Emotional On Early Morning Radio? - The Source - WSJ

 

[tommy271]

Ryanair: O'Leary, non piu' del 20% di cassa in banche Irlanda


MILANO (MF-DJ)--"Siamo preoccupati per la situazione economica dell'Irlanda perche' e' problematica, ma e' un mercato marginale per noi. Ryanair non ha piu' del 20% di liquidita' depositata nelle banche irlandesi, somma comunque del tutto garantita dal governo".
E' quanto ha dichiarato l'a.d. di Ryanair, Michael O'Leary, aggiungendo che il mercato irlandese e' "uno dei piu' problematici insieme al mercato inglese a causa della tassa imposta sul turismo".

 

[tommy271]

Bank of Ireland: S&P vede outlook negativo


LONDRA (MF-DJ)--Standard & Poor's ha tagliato l'outlook su Bank of Ireland a negativo da stabile per riflettere la difficolta' della societa' nei tentativi di ripristinare il rating "A".
L'agenzia di rating ha confermato il rating sul credito a lungo e medio termine ad "A-/A-2", dal momento che la compagnia ha fatto buoni progressi negli ultimi mesi.

 

[tommy271]

Rehn urges Ireland to continue austerity drive in next budget

ARTHUR BEESLEY, European Correspondent


EU ECONOMICS commissioner Olli Rehn has urged the Government to continue its austerity drive in next year’s budget, saying the “formidable” challenge of resolving the banking crisis should not push it off course.
Mr Rehn was speaking as the EU executive upgraded its growth forecasts for the European and euro zone economies, but he conceded he was “worried” about the situation in sovereign debt and financial markets.
Boosted by the speedy economic recovery in Germany, the commission increased its EU gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast by three-quarters of a point to 1.8 per cent and its euro zone forecast by a similar amount to 1.7 per cent.
“The economic recovery in the EU, while still fragile, is progressing at a faster pace than previously envisaged,” the commission said in its interim economic forecast.
“While a moderation of EU GDP growth in the second half of the year is still foreseen, some momentum from the second quarter should feed through to the following quarters, lifting the previously expected quarterly profile somewhat.”
There was no specific commentary on Ireland in the projections, which dealt mainly with the seven largest EU economies. However, Mr Rehn acknowledged close contacts between the Government and the commission over the “financial repair” issues arising from Anglo Irish Bank.
“The Irish Government has convincing plans to complete the financial repair in Ireland, which, as we well know, unfortunately, is going to be quite costly,” Mr Rehn told reporters.
“The Irish Government is currently reflecting steps in fiscal consolidation and I see that it’s very important that Ireland will maintain its rigorous approach as regards public finances, despite this formidable challenge now because of the financial repair.”
While his remarks come as the Government prepares in the coming weeks to make its assessment of the cost of closing Anglo, the commissioner did not directly respond to the question of whether the more extreme estimates would be manageable from the perspective of taxpayers.
He said the European economy was on the path to recovery but uncertainties remained and it was still a priority to continue with fiscal consolidation.
Mr Rehn said the European authorities have been able to calm financial markets to an extent but “not completely, and that’s never achieved completely”.
The forecast deals with France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Britain, which together represent some 80 per cent of the European economy.
“Real GDP growth for both the EU and euro area surprised markedly on the upside in the second quarter of 2010,” it said.
“This strong performance stemmed from an export-driven industrial demand, in line with the continued strong dynamics of global growth and trade in the first half of the year.”
The forecast also pointed to signs of a revival in domestic demand, including in private consumption. This was particularly so in Germany, where GDP is now forecast by the commission to rise by close to 3.5 per cent this year.


(Irish Times)