Obbligazioni societarie Bonds Air Berlin Eur/Chf DE000AB100B4 XS1051719786 XS1051723895

peccato da mag
Comunque i bond stanno tenendo non ci sono i soliti crolli da pubblicazione dei conti
Peccato...da maggio dell'anno scorso ci sono stati 4 crolli/crollini (maggio-agosto-ottobre-gennaio) che rappresentavano stupende occasioni di ingresso e nel giro di poco + di un mese si è sempre tornati a 100...
 
airberlin increases capacity utilization in April

Despite the decline in tourist travel and the associated capacity reduction, airberlin was able to increase its capacity utilization in April by 0.7 percentage points to 81.8 percent in yearly comparison. Furthermore, the accumulated capacity utilization remained virtually stable and increased by 0.3 percentage points to 82.9 percent in yearly comparison.

In line with the capacity reduction by 7.8 percent, the worldwide number of passengers traveling on airberlin in April decreased by 8.0 percent to 2,168,940 passengers, and the number of available seat kilometres (ASK) decreased by 9.5 percent to 4.102 billion kilometres.

airberlin's passengers traveled approximately 3.356 billion kilometres (RPK) on airberlin's worldwide flight route network, which corresponds to a capacity-related decrease by 8.7 percent in comparison with the corresponding month of the previous year.

Stefan Pichler, CEO of airberlin, stated: "Despite cross-sector market volatilities, we were once again able to increase our capacity utilization. This demonstrates that airberlin, with its attractive flight route network and the outstanding products and services on offer, is able to sustain its competitive edge. In the coming months, the optimization of our network will remain a cornerstone of airberlin's reorientation. To this effect, we are focusing on our expanded range of long-haul flights from the airberlin hubs Düsseldorf and Berlin."

April 2016
Capacity 2,754,582 (-7.8%)
Number of passengers 2,168,940 (-8.0%)
ASK in millions 4,102 (-9.5%)
RPK in millions 3,356 (-8.7%)
Capacity utilization rate in % 81.8 (+0.7 pp)

accumulated 2016
Capacity 9,794,792 (-6.4%)
Number of passengers 7,585,558 (-7.1%)
ASK in millions 15,079 (-7.8%)
RPK in millions 12,507 (-7.5%)
Capacity utilization rate in % 82.9 (+0.3 pp)
 
Buongiorno, qualcuno riesce a recuperare la fonte o commentare l'analisi postata (di là) da magician (che non mi sta rispondendo), ecco il mio semplice copia incolla:

"Analisi abbastanza scettica sulle possibilità di Air Berlin nel lungo periodo.

Air Berlin reported its FY15 results showing an EBIT loss of EUR307m for the full year, of which EUR213m EBIT loss in Q4 2015.
Management said that the EUR307m EBIT loss was impacted by one-offs comprising (i) dispute over code sharing for EUR40m, (ii) EUR92m of non-recurring restructuring costs and (iii) “missed opportunity” of EUR200m as a result of a fuel hedging book in FY15.
However, we believe that the latter is not a one-off since fuel hedging is part of the day-to-day operations for an airline company.

In addition, even if Air Berlin succeeded in increasing yield and average fares by 2% in FY15, it did not succeed in reducing cost per ASK (+1.9%).
The group explained that it could not reduce staff and aircraft ownership costs at the same pace as capacity was reduced (-5.4%).

In terms of cash generation, the group burnt EUR318m in FY15 excluding the sale of assets.
Including the sale of assets, Air Berlin burnt EUR39m in free cash over the year.
Note that the group currently has almost no more assets/aircraft to sell.

Liquidity position decreased to EUR165m cash at December 2015, of which EUR113m of restricted cash, indeed a very tight liquidity position.
However, Air Berlin said it has secured EUR325m in new funding since the beginning of the year. Details provided in the 2015 annual report show that Air Berlin secured: (i) a new shareholder loan from Etihad for EUR75m in January, (ii) a new AED726.4m loan from Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank guaranteed by Etihad and (iii) a revolving loan of EUR75m from National Bank of Abu Dhabi also guaranteed by Etihad.

Clearly, Air Berlin remains under Etihad perfusion, but we remain sceptical about this financial support and fear that it could be considered to be a “hidden” subsidy (although we are not legal experts).

Furthermore, leverage has become unsustainable: Debt/EBITDA of 12.5x at December, adjusted for hybrids and operating lease.
If we add new secured loans of EUR325m, leverage comes to 13.4x!

Management did not provide any clear guidance for FY16, simply saying that Air Berlin will achieve a better operating result.
The single quantified element is the expected EUR250m positive impact of net fuel and FX.
Finally, no timing was provided regarding when the group would breakeven."
 
Buongiorno, qualcuno riesce a recuperare la fonte o commentare l'analisi postata (di là) da magician (che non mi sta rispondendo), ecco il mio semplice copia incolla:

"Analisi abbastanza scettica sulle possibilità di Air Berlin nel lungo periodo.

Air Berlin reported its FY15 results showing an EBIT loss of EUR307m for the full year, of which EUR213m EBIT loss in Q4 2015.
Management said that the EUR307m EBIT loss was impacted by one-offs comprising (i) dispute over code sharing for EUR40m, (ii) EUR92m of non-recurring restructuring costs and (iii) “missed opportunity” of EUR200m as a result of a fuel hedging book in FY15.
However, we believe that the latter is not a one-off since fuel hedging is part of the day-to-day operations for an airline company.

In addition, even if Air Berlin succeeded in increasing yield and average fares by 2% in FY15, it did not succeed in reducing cost per ASK (+1.9%).
The group explained that it could not reduce staff and aircraft ownership costs at the same pace as capacity was reduced (-5.4%).

In terms of cash generation, the group burnt EUR318m in FY15 excluding the sale of assets.
Including the sale of assets, Air Berlin burnt EUR39m in free cash over the year.
Note that the group currently has almost no more assets/aircraft to sell.

Liquidity position decreased to EUR165m cash at December 2015, of which EUR113m of restricted cash, indeed a very tight liquidity position.
However, Air Berlin said it has secured EUR325m in new funding since the beginning of the year. Details provided in the 2015 annual report show that Air Berlin secured: (i) a new shareholder loan from Etihad for EUR75m in January, (ii) a new AED726.4m loan from Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank guaranteed by Etihad and (iii) a revolving loan of EUR75m from National Bank of Abu Dhabi also guaranteed by Etihad.

Clearly, Air Berlin remains under Etihad perfusion, but we remain sceptical about this financial support and fear that it could be considered to be a “hidden” subsidy (although we are not legal experts).

Furthermore, leverage has become unsustainable: Debt/EBITDA of 12.5x at December, adjusted for hybrids and operating lease.
If we add new secured loans of EUR325m, leverage comes to 13.4x!

Management did not provide any clear guidance for FY16, simply saying that Air Berlin will achieve a better operating result.
The single quantified element is the expected EUR250m positive impact of net fuel and FX.
Finally, no timing was provided regarding when the group would breakeven."



Ciao, un report di Exane, ma non è l'unica a pensare che il vero trigger del rilancio sia la possibilità di arrivare finalmente ad un bilancio con almeno un cash flow positivo.... e un chiarimento con le autorità tedesche definitivo sulle rotte e il co-sharing.
 
Ciao, un report di Exane, ma non è l'unica a pensare che il vero trigger del rilancio sia la possibilità di arrivare finalmente ad un bilancio con almeno un cash flow positivo.... e un chiarimento con le autorità tedesche definitivo sulle rotte e il co-sharing.

Ok! Grazie per esser intervenuto, ma ora la domanda diviene questa: visto l'andazzo arriverà ad avere cash flow positivo?

Vorrei citare l'attuale caso di Gol (altra parrocchia e altro partito) e se qualcuno segue o ha seguito per cercare di trovare (ove ve ne fossero) dati, analogismi e quant'altro da confrontare con ns. Air B.

Saluti
 

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