Buongiorno, qualcuno riesce a recuperare la fonte o commentare l'analisi postata (di là) da magician (che non mi sta rispondendo), ecco il mio semplice copia incolla:
"Analisi abbastanza scettica sulle possibilità di Air Berlin nel lungo periodo.
Air Berlin reported its FY15 results showing an EBIT loss of EUR307m for the full year, of which EUR213m EBIT loss in Q4 2015.
Management said that the EUR307m EBIT loss was impacted by one-offs comprising (i) dispute over code sharing for EUR40m, (ii) EUR92m of non-recurring restructuring costs and (iii) “missed opportunity” of EUR200m as a result of a fuel hedging book in FY15.
However, we believe that the latter is not a one-off since fuel hedging is part of the day-to-day operations for an airline company.
In addition, even if Air Berlin succeeded in increasing yield and average fares by 2% in FY15, it did not succeed in reducing cost per ASK (+1.9%).
The group explained that it could not reduce staff and aircraft ownership costs at the same pace as capacity was reduced (-5.4%).
In terms of cash generation, the group burnt EUR318m in FY15 excluding the sale of assets.
Including the sale of assets, Air Berlin burnt EUR39m in free cash over the year.
Note that the group currently has almost no more assets/aircraft to sell.
Liquidity position decreased to EUR165m cash at December 2015, of which EUR113m of restricted cash, indeed a very tight liquidity position.
However, Air Berlin said it has secured EUR325m in new funding since the beginning of the year. Details provided in the 2015 annual report show that Air Berlin secured: (i) a new shareholder loan from Etihad for EUR75m in January, (ii) a new AED726.4m loan from Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank guaranteed by Etihad and (iii) a revolving loan of EUR75m from National Bank of Abu Dhabi also guaranteed by Etihad.
Clearly, Air Berlin remains under Etihad perfusion, but we remain sceptical about this financial support and fear that it could be considered to be a “hidden” subsidy (although we are not legal experts).
Furthermore, leverage has become unsustainable: Debt/EBITDA of 12.5x at December, adjusted for hybrids and operating lease.
If we add new secured loans of EUR325m, leverage comes to 13.4x!
Management did not provide any clear guidance for FY16, simply saying that Air Berlin will achieve a better operating result.
The single quantified element is the expected EUR250m positive impact of net fuel and FX.
Finally, no timing was provided regarding when the group would breakeven."