Obbligazioni societarie Bonds Air Berlin Eur/Chf DE000AB100B4 XS1051719786 XS1051723895 (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gionmorg
- Data di Inizio
sandrino
Forumer storico
Avevano dichiarato il giorno dopo che probabilmente non avrebbero fatto in tempo
BIKERBIKER
Forumer attivo
Ecco il riassunto della conference preso da altro forum
Summary
On August 24th, One Square Advisors organized a conference call to discuss Air Berlin bankruptcy and its implications for bondholders
Here is a short summary of the call, including my own commentary, in brackets [.]
On August 24th, One Square Advisors organized a conference callto discuss Air Berlin bankruptcy and its implications for bondholders.
One Square Advisors is an independent restructuring boutique, that is already involved with some of the most recent German restructurings, such us Praktiker, Pfleiderer, Primacom, Voerdal, Solarworld and PHP.
It is obviously in their interest to try represent bondholders in this case, too.
One Square Advisors has partnered with an international law firm to better assist their (potential) customers.
Structure of Air Berlin:
Air Berlin plc - London - guarantees AB debt;
Air Berlin - Berlin - operating unit
AB is now in self administration, which means that management is allowed to handle day-to-day operations, under the supervision of a CIO.
There is an AB creditor committee, which is composed at the moment of 4 members. This committee acts a s supervising board to AB's self administration. Workforce representatives involved.
Bondholders are not represented in this committee, and One Square Advisors hopes to become their representative.
The German government has granted a €150 million bridge loan to AB, probably to the operating unit (not sure, though).
AB has a cash burn of € 77 million per month, at the moment.
The German government bridge loan may not be enough to cover AB needs, and another loan may be necessary in the future - from the government itself or other private sources (hedge funds, etc.). One Square Advisors actually asked to all participants to the conference call if anyone interested.
There are several bidders to AB [as we know].
Lufthansa - which may have some cartel issues, given its position in the German market. They may be interested in up to 88 airplanes
Easy Jet - that was already doing some diligence
Condor
Ryan Air
aviation entrepreneur Hans Rudolf Wöhrl - who could buy AB in total, which is the best scenario for AB bondholders
Ethiad
Some time was devoted to analyzing Etihad's commitment to support AB. this legal analysis is complicated, but could lead to claims against Etihad or AB management.
Given Etihad position as a shareholder, Etihad's convertible bonds [owned by Ethiad] could be granted a lower ranking in recovery compared to other bonds [it sounds like because of some sort of German law in insolvency].
Main assets
NIKI - but the asset may be already sold
slots - how much are they worth? it sounds like AB gave an indication that they could be worth €176 million, but this number was brought down to € 80 million in more recent financial reports [to be checked].
However, European laws do not allow individual sales of slots, which can create a problem in their evaluation.
Someone buying AB as a whole would obviously ensure ownership of the slots.
Liabilities - waterfall analysis
Cost of the administration - estimated within € 10 to €20 million
Senior bridge loan - € 150 million
Banks, etc.
Secured creditors (there may not be any, not clear)
Unsecured- among them bondholders
€ 170 million have to be paid in full before taking any other repayment into consideration
Options for bondholders -
try to get on the creditors committee (One Square Advisors proposes to represent them) to better control AB's developments/wind down
start a claim against Etihad
await recovery from bk.
Not known at this stage how many bonds Etihad owns, in total. not public info.
Dusseldorf - best slots
other slots - not so good.
uncertainty about the enforceability of Etihad letter of support. not a hard commitment to finance.
Auditors did not rely on Etihad support in their commentary. negative for bh.
There was a long discussion about the bonds not issued by AB directly, but mentioned as their debt on some statements. not known if they represent a liability, legally.
Q&A
Jefferies:
What about the prepayments received by AB (quite a large sum, € several hundred million) [most, but not all, pre-payments for tickets]
A: legally, AB could refuse to perform
Q: What happened to AB cash, last figure known in the € 140 million?
A: probably all gone, given AB's cash consumption of € 77 million / month at the moment.
Q: Etihad letter of support had a time frame, could this be helpful in a lawsuit?
A: probably, hard to say for sure
Q: Claim against CEO, management, etc. given their misleading comments about AB financial position.
A: need to check insurance to see how much € could be involved.
Summary
On August 24th, One Square Advisors organized a conference call to discuss Air Berlin bankruptcy and its implications for bondholders
Here is a short summary of the call, including my own commentary, in brackets [.]
On August 24th, One Square Advisors organized a conference callto discuss Air Berlin bankruptcy and its implications for bondholders.
One Square Advisors is an independent restructuring boutique, that is already involved with some of the most recent German restructurings, such us Praktiker, Pfleiderer, Primacom, Voerdal, Solarworld and PHP.
It is obviously in their interest to try represent bondholders in this case, too.
One Square Advisors has partnered with an international law firm to better assist their (potential) customers.
Structure of Air Berlin:
Air Berlin plc - London - guarantees AB debt;
Air Berlin - Berlin - operating unit
AB is now in self administration, which means that management is allowed to handle day-to-day operations, under the supervision of a CIO.
There is an AB creditor committee, which is composed at the moment of 4 members. This committee acts a s supervising board to AB's self administration. Workforce representatives involved.
Bondholders are not represented in this committee, and One Square Advisors hopes to become their representative.
The German government has granted a €150 million bridge loan to AB, probably to the operating unit (not sure, though).
AB has a cash burn of € 77 million per month, at the moment.
The German government bridge loan may not be enough to cover AB needs, and another loan may be necessary in the future - from the government itself or other private sources (hedge funds, etc.). One Square Advisors actually asked to all participants to the conference call if anyone interested.
There are several bidders to AB [as we know].
Lufthansa - which may have some cartel issues, given its position in the German market. They may be interested in up to 88 airplanes
Easy Jet - that was already doing some diligence
Condor
Ryan Air
aviation entrepreneur Hans Rudolf Wöhrl - who could buy AB in total, which is the best scenario for AB bondholders
Ethiad
Some time was devoted to analyzing Etihad's commitment to support AB. this legal analysis is complicated, but could lead to claims against Etihad or AB management.
Given Etihad position as a shareholder, Etihad's convertible bonds [owned by Ethiad] could be granted a lower ranking in recovery compared to other bonds [it sounds like because of some sort of German law in insolvency].
Main assets
NIKI - but the asset may be already sold
slots - how much are they worth? it sounds like AB gave an indication that they could be worth €176 million, but this number was brought down to € 80 million in more recent financial reports [to be checked].
However, European laws do not allow individual sales of slots, which can create a problem in their evaluation.
Someone buying AB as a whole would obviously ensure ownership of the slots.
Liabilities - waterfall analysis
Cost of the administration - estimated within € 10 to €20 million
Senior bridge loan - € 150 million
Banks, etc.
Secured creditors (there may not be any, not clear)
Unsecured- among them bondholders
€ 170 million have to be paid in full before taking any other repayment into consideration
Options for bondholders -
try to get on the creditors committee (One Square Advisors proposes to represent them) to better control AB's developments/wind down
start a claim against Etihad
await recovery from bk.
Not known at this stage how many bonds Etihad owns, in total. not public info.
Dusseldorf - best slots
other slots - not so good.
uncertainty about the enforceability of Etihad letter of support. not a hard commitment to finance.
Auditors did not rely on Etihad support in their commentary. negative for bh.
There was a long discussion about the bonds not issued by AB directly, but mentioned as their debt on some statements. not known if they represent a liability, legally.
Q&A
Jefferies:
What about the prepayments received by AB (quite a large sum, € several hundred million) [most, but not all, pre-payments for tickets]
A: legally, AB could refuse to perform
Q: What happened to AB cash, last figure known in the € 140 million?
A: probably all gone, given AB's cash consumption of € 77 million / month at the moment.
Q: Etihad letter of support had a time frame, could this be helpful in a lawsuit?
A: probably, hard to say for sure
Q: Claim against CEO, management, etc. given their misleading comments about AB financial position.
A: need to check insurance to see how much € could be involved.
kirk01
Forumer attivo
A Noi bondholders conviene farci rappresentare da one square advisors? Quale potrebbe essere il costo della rappresentanza?
Credo che se non ci facciamo rappresentare da qualcuno porteremo a casa ben poco, gli squali se ne approfitteranno ancora di più..
dulcamara
Forumer attivo
@dulcamara
Carissimo,
Ti ho letto di la. Come leggerai sopra anche io sono molto realista / pessimista ma credo che nella tua analisi ti sia un po' lasciato andare
Come sai non ho un euro in air berlin (ma dico subito che sono infognato in sballatissime avventure e sto ancora leccandomi le dolorosissime ferite). Considerate le quotazione avevo una voglia matta di entrare su AB bonds.
Però da come stanno andando le cose questo impeto è scemato.
Ab è infatti una sorta di anticalabrone. Contro ogni legge della fisica il calabrone per motivi inspiegabili riesce a volare. AB invece sotto l'imperio delle dure leggi dell'economia non riesci più a volare. Riportarla in aria, come entità, è una impresa disperata. Difficilmente qualcuno riuscirà. O almeno non si vede chi è in grado di far stare in piedi quel modello di business. Dico subito che non credo che Tizio Caio & Sempronio comprino tutta la compagnia e così subentrino integralmente nei diritti e nei doveri della stessa. Finora di tutti i cavalieri bianchi che si sono affacciati nessuno ha detto: "tranquilli ragazzi! Subentro io e pago tutti i debiti!". E forse nessuno mai lo dirà.
Quindi non resta che l'asta (istituzione antichissima creata sembra dagli antichi romani). Vale a dire una fase in cui si cerca di realizzare alla belle e meglio l'attivo per soddisfare i creditori. E qui da che mondo è mondo vale sempre la regola dell'articolo quinto (che per i pochi che non la conoscono la riassumo nella sua forma essenziale: "articolo quinto chi ha la grana ha vinto"). Per cui ammesso che tutto quello che è all'attivo di AB sia oro zecchino dovendolo vendere spinti dalle necessità della vita (gli stipendi del personale, le compagni petrolifere che vogliono essere pagate, gli aeroporti che danno credito fino ad un certo punto) verrà dagli acquirenti pagato come ottone. In altre parole anche ammesso che l'attivo valga tot, esso verrà pagato tot - x (lascio ai gentili forumisti il compito di stimare l'x). Ed a fronte di quell'attivo ci sono legioni di obbligazionisti ed altri creditori di pari grado che ambiscono ad essere ristorati, in coda ovviamente ai privilegiati.
A questo punto è assai improbabile che tutti questi creditori siano soddisfatti. Qualcosa forse otterranno. Ma non si sa di preciso quanto.
E qui subentra la difficile arte della stima (che sfocia nella scommessa). Facendo delle personalissime valutazioni sono arrivato alla conclusione che se va tutto per il meglio AB porta a casa dalla vendita 200 forse 300 milioni. E' una bella sera di estate e vado in là: arrivo anche a 500 immaginando che Lh sia generosa e/o Ryan air infranga la sua nomea di vettore no frills anche nella spese! Ipotesi tutte da verificare però.
Poi ci sono da pagare i debiti. Innanzi tutto i crediti privilegiati (quelli di onesquare dicono 170 milioni), le spese della procedura (dicono 10 - 20 milioni e non ho difficoltà a crederci). Poi ci sono i 150 milioni che ha anticipato il Governo federale tedesco che sono a mezz'aria (sperando che siano bastevoli), non sapendo se vanno sui rami di azienda o restano alla società. Infine c'è la faccenda della lettera di patronage della Etihad (che quasi di sicuro gli arabi col piffero onoreranno!)
Fatti e rifatti i conti sono arrivato alla conclusione che a fronte di circa 1000 milioni di euro di passivo (parlo solo di prestiti obbligazionari) l'attivo sia di circa 100 - 300 milioni (ipotesi più che ottimistica!). Quindi vuol dire un recovery che se va bene si aggirerà intorno al 10 per cento. Nella migliore delle ipotesi del 30 per cento.
Insomma sulla scorta di questi elementi una eventuale entrata mi lascia un po' perplesso. Ovviamente sono disposto ad emendare il mio ragionamento ed a fare autocritica (come si diceva nel 1968) a fronte di conti precisi e dettagliati (e non certo sulla scorta di affermazioni e slogan che stanno girando nella rete, probabilmente alimentate da abili fuochisti che vogliono scaricare sul retail azioni ed obbligazioni. Come anche, a mio sommesso parere, sono venditori di favole quelli che hanno organizzato la conference call in tedesco).
In definitiva sono molto perplesso.
Ps ho letto molti interventi che dicono "entra questo siamo a posto!" oppure "entra quell'altro. E' fatta siamo salvi!". Nessuno di questi interventi però mi ha soddisfatto facendomi intravedere un preciso percorso economico giuridico. Del tipo: "entra questo e fa questo e quest'altro e gli effetti sulla situazione economica e patrimoniale della società sono questo e quest'altro ancora".
Ultima modifica:
solodax
Nuovo forumer
ieri mi hanno scritto questo, condivido con voi...buon week a tutti, e buona fortuna
Dear Air Berlin bondholders,
Thank you very much for dialling in to our investors call today. We do hope we were able to shed some light on the ongoing insolvency of Air Berlin and were able to answer your questions together with law firm Kirkland & Ellis.
As a next step, as mentioned on the call, please feel free to get in touch with us in regards to any further questions you may have, which we will be happy to answer. Our contact details are below. We believe it is important to join forces and get representation in the creditors committee. We would appreciate if you support us by a letter of support (sample form attached) together with a proof of your holdings. We will then address the court to expand the bondholders committee showing the broad support. Of course a support letter does not incur any costs for you.
In addition we believe an ad hoc committee to coordinate and discuss further steps is very helpful. Please contact us if you would like to form such an ad hoc committee.
We are looking forward working with you.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen / Kind regards,
One Square Advisory Services GmbH
- Team AirBerlin -
Theatinerstrasse 36
D-80333 München
F: +49 (0)89 1598 9822
E: [email protected]
www.onesquareadvisors.com
Dear Air Berlin bondholders,
Thank you very much for dialling in to our investors call today. We do hope we were able to shed some light on the ongoing insolvency of Air Berlin and were able to answer your questions together with law firm Kirkland & Ellis.
As a next step, as mentioned on the call, please feel free to get in touch with us in regards to any further questions you may have, which we will be happy to answer. Our contact details are below. We believe it is important to join forces and get representation in the creditors committee. We would appreciate if you support us by a letter of support (sample form attached) together with a proof of your holdings. We will then address the court to expand the bondholders committee showing the broad support. Of course a support letter does not incur any costs for you.
In addition we believe an ad hoc committee to coordinate and discuss further steps is very helpful. Please contact us if you would like to form such an ad hoc committee.
We are looking forward working with you.
Mit freundlichen Grüßen / Kind regards,
One Square Advisory Services GmbH
- Team AirBerlin -
Theatinerstrasse 36
D-80333 München
F: +49 (0)89 1598 9822
E: [email protected]
www.onesquareadvisors.com
BRUNO59
Nuovo forumer
Lieber Herr ,
die Insolvenz von Air Berlin kam nicht wirklich überraschend, schon länger hatten Analysten und Insolvenzexperten die zweitgrößte deutsche Fluglinie „auf dem Schirm“.
Dennoch kann dies nicht darüber hinwegtäuschen, dass die Zahl der großen Mandate für Insolvenzverwalter weiter sinkt und entsprechend der Druck auf Sanierungskanzleien steigt. Welche weiteren großen Insolvenzverfahren es gab und wie das Ranking der Kanzleien und Verwaltern aussieht, lesen Sie hier.
Viel Spaß beim Lesen wünscht
Ihr Jens Décieux
Geschäftsführer - STP Portal GmbH
Statistik: Die bisher größten Verfahren '17
Eine Sicht auf die bisher nach Umsatz größten in 2017 eingeleiteten Insolvenzverfahren; per Klick auf den Firmen- oder Verwalternamen gelangen Sie direkt zu den Verfahrensdetails und den Verwalterprofilen.
#VerfahrenVerwalter /
SachwalterArtUmsatz
(Mio. €)Anzahl
Mitarbeiter
1 airberlin Gruppe Flöther, Lucas F. §270a 3.785 8.500
2 SolarWorld Gruppe Piepenburg, Horst Regel IN 803 3.000
3 Rickmers Holding AG Schröder, Jens-Sören §270a 587 2.000
4 Lutz Fleischwaren Gruppe Abel, Paul Regel IN 300 850
5 REGE Motorenteile Weiß, Rüdiger Regel IN 221 1.100
6 Schneider Mineralöl Meissen Seidel, Olaf Regel IN 189 80
7 Cinram GmbH Kebekus, Frank Regel IN 134 1.000
8 JAGO AG Braun, Tibor Regel IN 110 300
9 ALNO AG Hörmann, Martin §270a 97 1.900
10 Butlers Bornheimer, Jörg Regel IN 90 1.400
Aktuell aus der Presse
SolarWorld, Butlers, Rickmers und Mifa – viele prominente Namen finden sich derzeit in den Insolvenzbeschlüssen und auch in den Zahlen unseres Kanzlei- und Verwalter-Rankings.
Lesen Sie Henryk Hielschers Artikel:
- "Die führenden Insolvenzkanzleien im ersten Halbjahr"
- "Einzelwertung der Verwalter - Wer im ersten Halbjahr die meisten Verfahren bearbeitet hat"
Schon im April sah die Wirtschaftswoche die Insolvenzverwalter einem starken Konsolidierungsdruck ausgesetzt – wir lieferten die exklusiven Statistikdaten zum Artikel: Wirtschaftwoche: "Drang zur Größe"
BUONGIORNO A TUTTI, IERI HO RICEVUTO PRESSO LA MIA CASELLA MAIL LA DISPONIBILITA' A SEGUIRE LA PRATICA AB DA PARTE DI QUESTO SIGNORE INDICATO DAL SITO INSOLVENZ PORTAL AL QUALE SONO ISCRITTO PER ALTRI DEFAULT :
GRUPPE FLOTHER - LUCAS f.
Franzosenweg 20
06112 Halle
Telefon: 0345/21222-0
Telefax: 0345/21222-22
http://www.floether-wissing.de
VEDIAMO DI VALUTARE E CHE FARE.
BRUNO59
Nuovo forumer
MI ASSOCIO ALLA TUA VALUTAZIONE; E' L'UNICO CHE MI PARE POSSA FARCI SOFFRIRE DI MENO
