Bund,T-bond,T-note, CME,CBOT ....(vietato ai minori di 75aa)
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gastronomo
Forumer storico
DJ Debt Futures Review: Sells Off Along With Oil; Stops Triggered
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--A sharp plunge in crude-oil prices resulted in a
steep sell-off for interest-rate futures Wednesday on a day when the market
had otherwise shown little reaction to the economic data, analysts said.
The selling in debt products was exacerbated when prices fell through
some key chart levels that triggered stops, contacts reported.
"Overall, it was a very negative day and it was a sign of what could
come for the rest of the week," said Craig Ross, president of ApexFutures.com
in Chicago. "But we preface anything we say by saying 'Watch the crude oil.'
That seems to be what we are keying off of.
"If the top is in on the crude, we're going to say the top is in on the
bonds."
Dec 10-year notes settled down 22.5 ticks to 113-03, Dec Treasury bonds
lost a full point plus 4 ticks to 113-02 and Jun Eurodollars slid 10 basis
points to 97.28.
During the morning, analysts had described fixed-income products as
largely consolidating while awaiting U.S. elections and non-farm payrolls
next week. But that changed abruptly as crude turned south.
"As oil sold off, we followed along," said Beth Malloy, bond-market
analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com. "We are nothing but a puppet of oil."
Dec crude tumbled $2.71 to $52.46, hurt by speculative profit taking
after a recent run-up to record levels.
Historically, higher oil prices have often been seen as bearish for bonds
due to the potential for inflation. But in recent times, oil has risen so
dramatically that it prompted ideas that it could have a taxing effect that
slows economic growth, which is bullish for bonds. Thus, pullbacks in oil are
now viewed as bond-bearish.
"Crude is really taking it on the chin," said Ross. "So the stock market
is rallying and bonds have been taking it on the chin."
Stronger equities often hurt bonds due to asset-reallocation flows from
fixed-income products into equities when the latter is performing better. The
Dow industrials were up by triple digits just ahead of their close.
Also bearish for debt futures, market watchers said, was a $24 billion
auction of two-year notes awarded at a rate of 2.59%. The bid-to-cover ratio,
an indication of demand, was 1.93.
Some of the selling in bonds and notes was in the form of profit taking,
reported both Ross and Malloy. Traders had been chasing the long side of the
market lately, sending Dec bonds and 10-years to life-of-contract highs on
Monday.
"We've had a great run-up this month," said Ross. "Now that we've had a
great month and we have a good reason to go down - with the stock market up
and some technical numbers getting taken out - you're seeing a lot of guys
taking the money and running. That is making the situation even worse."
The selling in the Dec bonds accelerated when they fell through the area
from 113-21 to 113-15, said Ross. This was a gap on a chart for pit trade
only left between the Oct. 19 high and the Oct. 20 low.
Dec bonds fell as far as 112-31 in electronic trade. The next major
support may not occur until around 112-18 to 112-13, Ross said.
Stops were triggered in the Dec 10-year notes when they fell through the
Oct. 22 low of 113-11, said Ross. They bottomed at 113-01. Ross put the next
support around 112-26.5 to 112-25.
It appeared the stop-loss selling was not as dramatic in the
Eurodollars, said Ross. The Jun futures did fall through support around
97.30 to 97.29, dipping as far as 97.26.
As for economic data, durable-goods orders rose 0.2% in September, below
the consensus forecast of a 0.6% rise. However, orders for non-defense
capital goods excluding aircraft - often seen as a barometer of business
spending - rose a healthy 2.6%.
New-home sales rose 3.5% to an annualized rate of 1.206 million.
Expectations had been for a decline to around 1.15 million.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that four Fed districts reported
slower economic growth in September and early October, five cited continued
expansion, two reported faster growth, and one said activity was mixed.
The lone report on the calendar for Thursday is first-time jobless claims
at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). The forecast is for around 338,000 claims, which would
be up from 329,000 in the prior reporting period.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--A sharp plunge in crude-oil prices resulted in a
steep sell-off for interest-rate futures Wednesday on a day when the market
had otherwise shown little reaction to the economic data, analysts said.
The selling in debt products was exacerbated when prices fell through
some key chart levels that triggered stops, contacts reported.
"Overall, it was a very negative day and it was a sign of what could
come for the rest of the week," said Craig Ross, president of ApexFutures.com
in Chicago. "But we preface anything we say by saying 'Watch the crude oil.'
That seems to be what we are keying off of.
"If the top is in on the crude, we're going to say the top is in on the
bonds."
Dec 10-year notes settled down 22.5 ticks to 113-03, Dec Treasury bonds
lost a full point plus 4 ticks to 113-02 and Jun Eurodollars slid 10 basis
points to 97.28.
During the morning, analysts had described fixed-income products as
largely consolidating while awaiting U.S. elections and non-farm payrolls
next week. But that changed abruptly as crude turned south.
"As oil sold off, we followed along," said Beth Malloy, bond-market
analyst in Chicago with Briefing.com. "We are nothing but a puppet of oil."
Dec crude tumbled $2.71 to $52.46, hurt by speculative profit taking
after a recent run-up to record levels.
Historically, higher oil prices have often been seen as bearish for bonds
due to the potential for inflation. But in recent times, oil has risen so
dramatically that it prompted ideas that it could have a taxing effect that
slows economic growth, which is bullish for bonds. Thus, pullbacks in oil are
now viewed as bond-bearish.
"Crude is really taking it on the chin," said Ross. "So the stock market
is rallying and bonds have been taking it on the chin."
Stronger equities often hurt bonds due to asset-reallocation flows from
fixed-income products into equities when the latter is performing better. The
Dow industrials were up by triple digits just ahead of their close.
Also bearish for debt futures, market watchers said, was a $24 billion
auction of two-year notes awarded at a rate of 2.59%. The bid-to-cover ratio,
an indication of demand, was 1.93.
Some of the selling in bonds and notes was in the form of profit taking,
reported both Ross and Malloy. Traders had been chasing the long side of the
market lately, sending Dec bonds and 10-years to life-of-contract highs on
Monday.
"We've had a great run-up this month," said Ross. "Now that we've had a
great month and we have a good reason to go down - with the stock market up
and some technical numbers getting taken out - you're seeing a lot of guys
taking the money and running. That is making the situation even worse."
The selling in the Dec bonds accelerated when they fell through the area
from 113-21 to 113-15, said Ross. This was a gap on a chart for pit trade
only left between the Oct. 19 high and the Oct. 20 low.
Dec bonds fell as far as 112-31 in electronic trade. The next major
support may not occur until around 112-18 to 112-13, Ross said.
Stops were triggered in the Dec 10-year notes when they fell through the
Oct. 22 low of 113-11, said Ross. They bottomed at 113-01. Ross put the next
support around 112-26.5 to 112-25.
It appeared the stop-loss selling was not as dramatic in the
Eurodollars, said Ross. The Jun futures did fall through support around
97.30 to 97.29, dipping as far as 97.26.
As for economic data, durable-goods orders rose 0.2% in September, below
the consensus forecast of a 0.6% rise. However, orders for non-defense
capital goods excluding aircraft - often seen as a barometer of business
spending - rose a healthy 2.6%.
New-home sales rose 3.5% to an annualized rate of 1.206 million.
Expectations had been for a decline to around 1.15 million.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book showed that four Fed districts reported
slower economic growth in September and early October, five cited continued
expansion, two reported faster growth, and one said activity was mixed.
The lone report on the calendar for Thursday is first-time jobless claims
at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). The forecast is for around 338,000 claims, which would
be up from 329,000 in the prior reporting period.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
Andrea 53
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti 
finalmente sotto i 117
naturalmente gli AMER...hanno fatto di più , ma si sa i tedeschi sono DURI
il cambio per ora ne ha risentito in misura minima , e bisogna monitorare il petrolio perchè non è detto che non ci ripensino !
io ho messo un TP a 64 anche se per ora tutta questa voglia di scendere sembra l'abbiano persa! in ogni caso per una volta tanto sono tranquillo il mio PDC è sopra i 117
ciao a tutti
complimenti per la tenacia a DAN e DITRO
finalmente sotto i 117
naturalmente gli AMER...hanno fatto di più , ma si sa i tedeschi sono DURI
il cambio per ora ne ha risentito in misura minima , e bisogna monitorare il petrolio perchè non è detto che non ci ripensino !
io ho messo un TP a 64 anche se per ora tutta questa voglia di scendere sembra l'abbiano persa! in ogni caso per una volta tanto sono tranquillo il mio PDC è sopra i 117
ciao a tutti
complimenti per la tenacia a DAN e DITRO
ditropan
Forumer storico
M.Intropido: Greenspan abbandona il dollaro
di Massimo Intropido , 28.10.2004 10:14
Cari Trendonliniani manca poco: tra pochi giorni sapremo chi sarà il nuovo presidente degli Stati Uniti. Il problema è che nemmeno gli americani sanno per chi votare, per lo meno quella fascia dell’elettorato che deciderà la sorte della contesa. Certo, perché i giovanotti allampanati, i pensionati rivitalizzati, le ciccione entusiaste, quelli cioè che indossano la pataccona del loro candidato preferito, cioè i supporters democratici e repubblicani, ovvero i volontari, quelli sanno già per chi votare. Ma l’America non è solo quella. L’America è anche quella della gente delle grandi città industriali dell’Ohio, Pittsburgh, Cliveland, Columbus, le città delle grandi aziende metalmeccanicochimiche, che vedono continuamente posti di lavoro che si perdono, perché il mondo ama sempre meno i fabbriconi e le masse operaie ed ora ci si mette anche la Cina, per giunta. Quelli voteranno per il tenente Kerry, perché, col posto a rischio o già perduto, non potranno pagarsi le spese mediche, che il tenente vuole di stato, mentre il figlio d’arte no. Così come voteranno per il tenente i Bostoniani, perché nel Massachussets comandano ancora i Kennedy. Così pure farà la California, perché lì se non sei alternativo non sei nessuno. Ma diversamente dovrebbe andare nelle due Carolina, perché son zeppe di accademie e basi militari e costoro amano Bushino, a cui piace arrivare sulle portaerei col giaccone da aviatore. Così come in generale nelle periferie e nelle campagne. Già, la vera spaccatura è tra i cittadini e quelli che vivono fuori dalle città: i primi sono soprattutto intellettuali, operai, immigrati, tutta gente a cui Bush non sta troppo simpatico. Gli altri sono i classici americani medi, ipercalorici, con gippone parcheggiato nel garage della loro casa in legno di un quartiere residenziale, con un figlio al college ed uno all’università o nell’esercito; non mancano i barbecue nei fine settimana estivi con gli amici, il canestro imbullonato sopra il garage, la colf messicana o portoricana ed un cane di pura razza, intelligentissimo, che, oltre a portare il giornale al padrone, a volte lo capisce meglio di quest’ultimo. Questa gente vuole un presidente forte, di quelli con la mascella solida, la mobilitazione militare facile e che si commuovono quando sentono cantare “God bless America”. Questi voteranno per Bushino. Questo è, in estrema sintesi, il quadro. E PER ME VINCERA’ ANCORA BUSH, altro che sondaggi e dibattiti televisivi! C’e ancora troppa gente che si sente umiliata per l’11 Settembre, troppa gente che non vuol sentir parlare di aumenti delle tasse, troppa gente che, nell’incertezza, vota il nome e quella dei Bush è una vera dinasty americana. Per loro Kerry è un bravo ragazzo, con forte senso sociale, con una visione del mondo molto realistica, ma in questo momento, sempre per loro, serve un uomo capace di menar cazzotti, di salutare la bandiera americana come si deve, di far loro sentire che stanno lottando per qualcosa. E questo è Bush e solo Bush.
Nel frattempo Mr Greenspan ha lasciato cadere il Dollaro, che ci ha messo poco a sprofondare. E’ stata una decisione lucida ma rischiosa. Vediamo perché.
Gli Stati Uniti hanno al momento due problemi:
1) Il deficit commerciale, ovvero importano più di quanto esportano.
2) Il debito pubblico, ovvero spendono più di quanto guadagnano.
Risolvere il primo problema svalutando il Dollaro significa rendere più competitivi i prodotti americani, ma significa anche far perdere soldi a chi ha investimenti finanziari denominati in Dollari. Ma per poter finanziare il deficit americano occorre proprio un a afflusso di capitali. Dunque sarà meglio per gli americani che il Dollaro non si deprezzi troppo, altrimenti sarebbero guai. Alla vecchia Europa non va poi tanto male, perché se non altro il petrolio (che si paga in Dollari) ci costerà meno. Però ora per rendere competitivi i nostri prodotti dovremo fare sul serio: tagliare i costi ed investire in ricerca. Nella prima attività le aziende europee riescono benissimo, nella seconda, per ora, lasciano a desiderare. Ma dovranno farcela, se no peggio per loro.
di Massimo Intropido , 28.10.2004 10:14
Cari Trendonliniani manca poco: tra pochi giorni sapremo chi sarà il nuovo presidente degli Stati Uniti. Il problema è che nemmeno gli americani sanno per chi votare, per lo meno quella fascia dell’elettorato che deciderà la sorte della contesa. Certo, perché i giovanotti allampanati, i pensionati rivitalizzati, le ciccione entusiaste, quelli cioè che indossano la pataccona del loro candidato preferito, cioè i supporters democratici e repubblicani, ovvero i volontari, quelli sanno già per chi votare. Ma l’America non è solo quella. L’America è anche quella della gente delle grandi città industriali dell’Ohio, Pittsburgh, Cliveland, Columbus, le città delle grandi aziende metalmeccanicochimiche, che vedono continuamente posti di lavoro che si perdono, perché il mondo ama sempre meno i fabbriconi e le masse operaie ed ora ci si mette anche la Cina, per giunta. Quelli voteranno per il tenente Kerry, perché, col posto a rischio o già perduto, non potranno pagarsi le spese mediche, che il tenente vuole di stato, mentre il figlio d’arte no. Così come voteranno per il tenente i Bostoniani, perché nel Massachussets comandano ancora i Kennedy. Così pure farà la California, perché lì se non sei alternativo non sei nessuno. Ma diversamente dovrebbe andare nelle due Carolina, perché son zeppe di accademie e basi militari e costoro amano Bushino, a cui piace arrivare sulle portaerei col giaccone da aviatore. Così come in generale nelle periferie e nelle campagne. Già, la vera spaccatura è tra i cittadini e quelli che vivono fuori dalle città: i primi sono soprattutto intellettuali, operai, immigrati, tutta gente a cui Bush non sta troppo simpatico. Gli altri sono i classici americani medi, ipercalorici, con gippone parcheggiato nel garage della loro casa in legno di un quartiere residenziale, con un figlio al college ed uno all’università o nell’esercito; non mancano i barbecue nei fine settimana estivi con gli amici, il canestro imbullonato sopra il garage, la colf messicana o portoricana ed un cane di pura razza, intelligentissimo, che, oltre a portare il giornale al padrone, a volte lo capisce meglio di quest’ultimo. Questa gente vuole un presidente forte, di quelli con la mascella solida, la mobilitazione militare facile e che si commuovono quando sentono cantare “God bless America”. Questi voteranno per Bushino. Questo è, in estrema sintesi, il quadro. E PER ME VINCERA’ ANCORA BUSH, altro che sondaggi e dibattiti televisivi! C’e ancora troppa gente che si sente umiliata per l’11 Settembre, troppa gente che non vuol sentir parlare di aumenti delle tasse, troppa gente che, nell’incertezza, vota il nome e quella dei Bush è una vera dinasty americana. Per loro Kerry è un bravo ragazzo, con forte senso sociale, con una visione del mondo molto realistica, ma in questo momento, sempre per loro, serve un uomo capace di menar cazzotti, di salutare la bandiera americana come si deve, di far loro sentire che stanno lottando per qualcosa. E questo è Bush e solo Bush.
Nel frattempo Mr Greenspan ha lasciato cadere il Dollaro, che ci ha messo poco a sprofondare. E’ stata una decisione lucida ma rischiosa. Vediamo perché.
Gli Stati Uniti hanno al momento due problemi:
1) Il deficit commerciale, ovvero importano più di quanto esportano.
2) Il debito pubblico, ovvero spendono più di quanto guadagnano.
Risolvere il primo problema svalutando il Dollaro significa rendere più competitivi i prodotti americani, ma significa anche far perdere soldi a chi ha investimenti finanziari denominati in Dollari. Ma per poter finanziare il deficit americano occorre proprio un a afflusso di capitali. Dunque sarà meglio per gli americani che il Dollaro non si deprezzi troppo, altrimenti sarebbero guai. Alla vecchia Europa non va poi tanto male, perché se non altro il petrolio (che si paga in Dollari) ci costerà meno. Però ora per rendere competitivi i nostri prodotti dovremo fare sul serio: tagliare i costi ed investire in ricerca. Nella prima attività le aziende europee riescono benissimo, nella seconda, per ora, lasciano a desiderare. Ma dovranno farcela, se no peggio per loro.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Bonjour a tout les bondaroles
che goduria tornare sul book per un momento dopo due gg e trovare il T-Bronx sotto di due figure
naturalmente il merito è tutto dell'avatar evocato l'altra sera
che goduria tornare sul book per un momento dopo due gg e trovare il T-Bronx sotto di due figure
naturalmente il merito è tutto dell'avatar evocato l'altra sera
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
azz son arrivati in preopen su s1 più di mezza figura di gap 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
peyote psichedelichissimo: ecco la ragione ! La Cina ha alzato i tassi d'interesse , l'avatar c'entrava veramente
US Treasuries reverse, fall as China hikes rates
By George Matlock
LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices reversed
direction and fell to multi-week lows in Europe on Thursday
after reports China's central bank raised interest rates for the
first time in 9 years and took dealers' eyes off oil prices.
The Chinese central bank lifted its 1-year Yuan lending rate
to 5.58 percent from 5.31 percent. It also raised its deposit
rate.
"Bonds are selling off on news that China has raised its
one-year lending rate by 0.27 percent. It is the first rate hike
in nine years and took people by surprise," said Marc Ostwald, a
bond broker at Monument Securities in London.
Bond prices slid on Wednesday as a major retreat in oil
markets removed a key impetus for the recent rally in bonds,
before prices firmed earlier in Europe on Thursday.
At 1050 GMT, two-year Treasuries <US2YT=RR> were down 2/32
since the New York close on Wednesday, wiping out earlier price
gains, and yielding 2.64 percent -- a three-week high.
The 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was down 6/32 and yielding
4.107 percent -- a 15-day high.
The December T-note future <TYZ4> was at 112-28/32, down
8/32.
News on Wednesday of an unexpectedly large rise in U.S.
crude inventories has pushed oil prices <CLc1> further away from
this week's record highs above $55 a barrel.
Weekly U.S. jobless claims data were due at 1230 GMT,
followed by the U.S. Conference Board's September help-wanted
advertising index at 1400 GMT.
A Reuters poll of economists forecast initial weekly jobless
claims at 338,000, up from 329,000 a week earlier.
The help-wanted index is forecast at 37.0, in line with a
month earlier.
"The weekly jobless claims data today may be important after
the (Federal Reserve's) Beige Book report yesterday (Wednesday)
suggested the labour market situation was not that bad," said
Rene Defossez, strategist at CDC-IXIS Securities in Paris.
"Clearly, there is a contradiction between the Fed's
commentary which is hawkish (on rates) and what the market is
pricing in," he added.
Treasuries underperformed Bunds, with the 10-year yield
spread widening three basis points so that T-Notes yielded 25
basis points more than German debt.
The dollar swap spread was at 43.25 basis points compared
with 42.50 on Wednesday in the United States.
US Treasuries reverse, fall as China hikes rates
By George Matlock
LONDON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices reversed
direction and fell to multi-week lows in Europe on Thursday
after reports China's central bank raised interest rates for the
first time in 9 years and took dealers' eyes off oil prices.
The Chinese central bank lifted its 1-year Yuan lending rate
to 5.58 percent from 5.31 percent. It also raised its deposit
rate.
"Bonds are selling off on news that China has raised its
one-year lending rate by 0.27 percent. It is the first rate hike
in nine years and took people by surprise," said Marc Ostwald, a
bond broker at Monument Securities in London.
Bond prices slid on Wednesday as a major retreat in oil
markets removed a key impetus for the recent rally in bonds,
before prices firmed earlier in Europe on Thursday.
At 1050 GMT, two-year Treasuries <US2YT=RR> were down 2/32
since the New York close on Wednesday, wiping out earlier price
gains, and yielding 2.64 percent -- a three-week high.
The 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was down 6/32 and yielding
4.107 percent -- a 15-day high.
The December T-note future <TYZ4> was at 112-28/32, down
8/32.
News on Wednesday of an unexpectedly large rise in U.S.
crude inventories has pushed oil prices <CLc1> further away from
this week's record highs above $55 a barrel.
Weekly U.S. jobless claims data were due at 1230 GMT,
followed by the U.S. Conference Board's September help-wanted
advertising index at 1400 GMT.
A Reuters poll of economists forecast initial weekly jobless
claims at 338,000, up from 329,000 a week earlier.
The help-wanted index is forecast at 37.0, in line with a
month earlier.
"The weekly jobless claims data today may be important after
the (Federal Reserve's) Beige Book report yesterday (Wednesday)
suggested the labour market situation was not that bad," said
Rene Defossez, strategist at CDC-IXIS Securities in Paris.
"Clearly, there is a contradiction between the Fed's
commentary which is hawkish (on rates) and what the market is
pricing in," he added.
Treasuries underperformed Bunds, with the 10-year yield
spread widening three basis points so that T-Notes yielded 25
basis points more than German debt.
The dollar swap spread was at 43.25 basis points compared
with 42.50 on Wednesday in the United States.
