Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
le ultime chiacchiere da Chicago, la paura cinese sembra rientrata 
Treasuries steady, regain nerve after China scare
(Adds help-wanted, comment)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries clawed back overnight losses on Thursday as investors reconsidered the implications of a surprise rise in China's interest rates.
Some investors had sold bonds on speculation the hike would slow Chinese domestic demand and take some steam out of oil and other commodity prices. If so, that would be a relief for the U.S. economy and perhaps remove an impediment to further rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
Analysts found the reasoning a bit of a stretch, noting that if the Chinese economy were to slow it could ultimately become a drag on global growth, which would tend to retard inflation and aid fixed-income debt.
Others, argued that the Chinese economy was relatively unresponsive to interest rates increases, so it was not clear the hike would have much effect at all.
"People are reading a lot into this move which really isn't justified," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julias Baer.
"We reckon the pullback in oil and bonds has more to do with technical factors -- oil failing at a double top and bonds failing to clear 3.90 percent," he added. "It's not clear these moves are the start of a trend, or just temporary setbacks."
NYMEX oil futures <CLZ4> twice failed to clear $55.67 this week, leading to a swift sell-off to around $51.85 on Thursday. Fixed-income investors have tended to look at sky-high energy costs as a future drag on consumer spending and growth rather than a herald of inflation.
Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields reached seven-month lows of 3.93 percent early in the week but could not extend the rally, leading frustrated bulls to exit positions in a rush.
The retracement saw yields climb as high as 4.15 percent overnight, before the market reconsidered the impact of the China news. Late Thursday morning the 10-year note <US10YT=RR> had recouped almost all its initial losses to be down only 2/32 in price, leaving yields steady at 4.09 percent.
The new two-year note <US2YT=RR> was yielding 2.62 percent, having fetched 2.59 percent in a poorly received $24 billion auction on Wednesday.
The five-year note <US5YT=RR> turned flat at 3.36 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> dropped 1/32, leaving yields hovering around 4.85 percent.
Traders were uncertain what China's rate hike meant for the prospect of foreign central bank demand for Treasuries.
Some wondered if the rate move was a step toward a more flexible yuan regime. If so, it could mean the Chinese central bank would have less need to buy dollars and so less cash to invest in Treasuries.
Others argued the hike could be a step away from a more flexible regime.
"The fact that China chose to raise interest rates is merely a substitute for a revaluation," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak.
"China's economy is likely to stay strong, and the hike in interest rates is actually a lot less restrictive than a revaluation of the Chinese currency would be," he added.
Treasuries were only briefly aided by a 20,000 jump in U.S. initial weekly jobless claims to 350,000. Analysts had been looking for a rise to only 338,000, so the rise was a disappointment to those hoping for a clear sign of improvement in the labor market.
Likewise, the Conference Board's measure of help wanted ads declined to its low of the year at 36 in September. While analysts put little emphasis on this series, it has gelled with the subdued pace of jobs growth in recent months.
Treasuries steady, regain nerve after China scare
(Adds help-wanted, comment)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Oct 28 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries clawed back overnight losses on Thursday as investors reconsidered the implications of a surprise rise in China's interest rates.
Some investors had sold bonds on speculation the hike would slow Chinese domestic demand and take some steam out of oil and other commodity prices. If so, that would be a relief for the U.S. economy and perhaps remove an impediment to further rate increases from the Federal Reserve.
Analysts found the reasoning a bit of a stretch, noting that if the Chinese economy were to slow it could ultimately become a drag on global growth, which would tend to retard inflation and aid fixed-income debt.
Others, argued that the Chinese economy was relatively unresponsive to interest rates increases, so it was not clear the hike would have much effect at all.
"People are reading a lot into this move which really isn't justified," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julias Baer.
"We reckon the pullback in oil and bonds has more to do with technical factors -- oil failing at a double top and bonds failing to clear 3.90 percent," he added. "It's not clear these moves are the start of a trend, or just temporary setbacks."
NYMEX oil futures <CLZ4> twice failed to clear $55.67 this week, leading to a swift sell-off to around $51.85 on Thursday. Fixed-income investors have tended to look at sky-high energy costs as a future drag on consumer spending and growth rather than a herald of inflation.
Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury yields reached seven-month lows of 3.93 percent early in the week but could not extend the rally, leading frustrated bulls to exit positions in a rush.
The retracement saw yields climb as high as 4.15 percent overnight, before the market reconsidered the impact of the China news. Late Thursday morning the 10-year note <US10YT=RR> had recouped almost all its initial losses to be down only 2/32 in price, leaving yields steady at 4.09 percent.
The new two-year note <US2YT=RR> was yielding 2.62 percent, having fetched 2.59 percent in a poorly received $24 billion auction on Wednesday.
The five-year note <US5YT=RR> turned flat at 3.36 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> dropped 1/32, leaving yields hovering around 4.85 percent.
Traders were uncertain what China's rate hike meant for the prospect of foreign central bank demand for Treasuries.
Some wondered if the rate move was a step toward a more flexible yuan regime. If so, it could mean the Chinese central bank would have less need to buy dollars and so less cash to invest in Treasuries.
Others argued the hike could be a step away from a more flexible regime.
"The fact that China chose to raise interest rates is merely a substitute for a revaluation," said Tony Crescenzi, chief bond market strategist at Miller, Tabak.
"China's economy is likely to stay strong, and the hike in interest rates is actually a lot less restrictive than a revaluation of the Chinese currency would be," he added.
Treasuries were only briefly aided by a 20,000 jump in U.S. initial weekly jobless claims to 350,000. Analysts had been looking for a rise to only 338,000, so the rise was a disappointment to those hoping for a clear sign of improvement in the labor market.
Likewise, the Conference Board's measure of help wanted ads declined to its low of the year at 36 in September. While analysts put little emphasis on this series, it has gelled with the subdued pace of jobs growth in recent months.
se scompaio per qualche altro giorno remember che venerdì prossimo ci sono i famigerati payrolls 
:smile: 
