gastronomo
Forumer storico
DJ Debt Futures Review: Slight Gain; Awaiting GDP, Chicago PMI Fri
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago on Thursday
oscillated along with oil prices Thursday before finally settling not far
from where they left off the day before.
Some support came from news that the manager of the world's largest bond
fund had suggested investing in inflation-linked Treasury products.
When traders return Friday, they will have a heavy batch of economic
reports to digest, including third-quarter gross domestic product.
Dec 10-year notes settled up 3 ticks at 113-06, Dec Treasury bonds edged
up 3 ticks to 113-05 and Jun Eurodollars added a half basis point to 97.285.
The futures opened the session with a softer tone.
"The early weakness was related to a Chinese rate hike," said John
Nyhoff, executive vice president for trading and research in Chicago for Bank
of Tokyo/Mitsubishi Futures. Most deposit and loan rates in China were
increased overnight by 27 basis points, the first hike there in nine years.
"Jobless claims were up and gave us a momentary rally," Nyhoff said. The
Labor Department reported a rise of 20,000 claims to 350,000, when economists
were looking for around 338,000.
The futures remained under pressure, however, especially after Dec crude
had fallen as far as $51.29 overnight, which was a loss of more than $4 from
Wednesday's $55.65 high, contacts said.
"Then as oil recovered during the day, we went back up," said
Nyhoff. "And when oil started to lower again, we went back down."
Dec crude bounced back all the way to a session high of $52.80. As a
result, Dec 10-year notes climbed as high as 113-14.
But Dec crude eventually resumed its downward course and fell to a new
low for the day of $50.78. And Dec 10-years thus gave up most of their gains.
"There wasn't much else out there fundamentally to look at, so most
people kept their eye on crude and the potential implications (for the
economy)," said Nyhoff.
Some of the bounce for debt products was the result of profit taking on
short positions, said Alex Li, interest-rate strategist in New York with
Credit Suisse First Boston.
Also, contacts cited as supportive news that Bill Gross, managing
director at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, said one of PIMCO's
strategic bets is to own intermediate inflation-index Treasuries.
"That obviously provided some bids to the debt-product sector," said Li.
Turning to the charts, Nyhoff listed nearby support for the Jun
Eurodollars at the overnight low of 97.21. More support can be anticipated at
a Bollinger-band level of 97.14 and the 97.115 low from Oct. 7.
Resistance comes in at the 20-day moving average of 97.31, then 97.36 and
a Bollinger-band level up at 97.48.
In Dec 10-year notes, the nearby support lies around the 20-day moving
average of 112-31, said Nyhoff. More support is seen at the 112-17 and 112-
17.5 bottoms from Oct. 13 and 12.
"On the upside, we don't have a lot (of resistance) until we get back to
the high from the 25th at 114-05," said Nyhoff. "You've got some pretty wide
territory that the market has staked out for itself during the course of this
month."
The market will have a slew of U.S. economic data to focus on Friday.
Perhaps most heavily anticipated report will be third-quarter GDP due out at
0730 CT (1230 GMT). The forecast is for growth of 4.3%, compared to 3.3% in
the prior quarter.
Other data on the calendar for Friday include:
-- the third-quarter Employment Cost Index, also at 0730 CT, forecast to
be up 1.0%;
-- the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index around 0845 CT
(1345 GMT), forecast to inch up to 88.0 from 87.5 in the middle of the month;
-- and the Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index at 0900 CT (1400 GMT),
forecast to fall to 59.0 in October from 61.3 in September.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago on Thursday
oscillated along with oil prices Thursday before finally settling not far
from where they left off the day before.
Some support came from news that the manager of the world's largest bond
fund had suggested investing in inflation-linked Treasury products.
When traders return Friday, they will have a heavy batch of economic
reports to digest, including third-quarter gross domestic product.
Dec 10-year notes settled up 3 ticks at 113-06, Dec Treasury bonds edged
up 3 ticks to 113-05 and Jun Eurodollars added a half basis point to 97.285.
The futures opened the session with a softer tone.
"The early weakness was related to a Chinese rate hike," said John
Nyhoff, executive vice president for trading and research in Chicago for Bank
of Tokyo/Mitsubishi Futures. Most deposit and loan rates in China were
increased overnight by 27 basis points, the first hike there in nine years.
"Jobless claims were up and gave us a momentary rally," Nyhoff said. The
Labor Department reported a rise of 20,000 claims to 350,000, when economists
were looking for around 338,000.
The futures remained under pressure, however, especially after Dec crude
had fallen as far as $51.29 overnight, which was a loss of more than $4 from
Wednesday's $55.65 high, contacts said.
"Then as oil recovered during the day, we went back up," said
Nyhoff. "And when oil started to lower again, we went back down."
Dec crude bounced back all the way to a session high of $52.80. As a
result, Dec 10-year notes climbed as high as 113-14.
But Dec crude eventually resumed its downward course and fell to a new
low for the day of $50.78. And Dec 10-years thus gave up most of their gains.
"There wasn't much else out there fundamentally to look at, so most
people kept their eye on crude and the potential implications (for the
economy)," said Nyhoff.
Some of the bounce for debt products was the result of profit taking on
short positions, said Alex Li, interest-rate strategist in New York with
Credit Suisse First Boston.
Also, contacts cited as supportive news that Bill Gross, managing
director at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund, said one of PIMCO's
strategic bets is to own intermediate inflation-index Treasuries.
"That obviously provided some bids to the debt-product sector," said Li.
Turning to the charts, Nyhoff listed nearby support for the Jun
Eurodollars at the overnight low of 97.21. More support can be anticipated at
a Bollinger-band level of 97.14 and the 97.115 low from Oct. 7.
Resistance comes in at the 20-day moving average of 97.31, then 97.36 and
a Bollinger-band level up at 97.48.
In Dec 10-year notes, the nearby support lies around the 20-day moving
average of 112-31, said Nyhoff. More support is seen at the 112-17 and 112-
17.5 bottoms from Oct. 13 and 12.
"On the upside, we don't have a lot (of resistance) until we get back to
the high from the 25th at 114-05," said Nyhoff. "You've got some pretty wide
territory that the market has staked out for itself during the course of this
month."
The market will have a slew of U.S. economic data to focus on Friday.
Perhaps most heavily anticipated report will be third-quarter GDP due out at
0730 CT (1230 GMT). The forecast is for growth of 4.3%, compared to 3.3% in
the prior quarter.
Other data on the calendar for Friday include:
-- the third-quarter Employment Cost Index, also at 0730 CT, forecast to
be up 1.0%;
-- the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment index around 0845 CT
(1345 GMT), forecast to inch up to 88.0 from 87.5 in the middle of the month;
-- and the Chicago Purchasing Mangers Index at 0900 CT (1400 GMT),
forecast to fall to 59.0 in October from 61.3 in September.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
