Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
azz andrè potrebbe arrivare anche sopra i campi di cotone , ecco perchè è in tensione anche illo, bella sta immagine , mettila anche nel thread delle commodities
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa)
- Creatore Discussione Noooo
- Data di Inizio
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
manca poco alla conclusione delle varie sessioni di mercato ma per ora a fronte dell'incombere del dato di domani, abbiamo l'equity che sale vigoroso e i Bonds che ritracciano nonostante i dati delle 14:30 che dovevano supportarlo , prevedo 200000 nuovi posti di lavoro 
:smile:
:smile: 
ditropan
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:manca poco alla conclusione delle varie sessioni di mercato ma per ora a fronte dell'incombere del dato di domani, abbiamo l'equity che sale vigoroso e i Bonds che ritracciano nonostante i dati delle 14:30 che dovevano supportarlo , prevedo 200000 nuovi posti di lavoro
facciamo 250.000 ... che poi sono quelli che si attendevano il mese scorso.
:smile:
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:manca poco alla conclusione delle varie sessioni di mercato ma per ora a fronte dell'incombere del dato di domani, abbiamo l'equity che sale vigoroso e i Bonds che ritracciano nonostante i dati delle 14:30 che dovevano supportarlo , prevedo 200000 nuovi posti di lavoro
facciamo 250.000 ... che poi sono quelli che si attendevano il mese scorso.
melius abundare quam deficientem
:smile:
ditropan
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:manca poco alla conclusione delle varie sessioni di mercato ma per ora a fronte dell'incombere del dato di domani, abbiamo l'equity che sale vigoroso e i Bonds che ritracciano nonostante i dati delle 14:30 che dovevano supportarlo , prevedo 200000 nuovi posti di lavoro
facciamo 250.000 ... che poi sono quelli che si attendevano il mese scorso.
melius abundare quam deficientem
indici partiti a razzo .... questi sanno già tutto altro che balle !!!!
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Da www.futuresource.com
DJ Debt Futures Review: Down On Profit Taking Ahead Of Jobs Data
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago finished lower
Thursday as longs opted to square their positions in advance of Friday's key
report on the employment situation in August, traders said.
The longer end of the yield curve this week got up to its highest levels
in nearly half a year. Many participants are reluctant to want to go into the
hard-to-predict payrolls report with long positions at longtime highs, they
said.
Contacts said there appears to be some diversity of opinion on what the
report will show. While some of the data this week has been soft, they pointed
out that the employment portion of a couple key diffusion indexes suggested
the labor market just might be holding up better than some think.
Dec 10-year notes settled down 14 ticks at 112-even, Dec Treasury bonds
lost 24 ticks to 110-21, and Mar Eurodollars fell 5.5 basis points to 97.55.
The pullback comes after Dec 10-year notes on Wednesday got up to 112-
22.5 and Dec bonds got up to 111-28, their most muscular levels since March.
"Some people must have remembered the employment report is coming out
(Friday)," quipped John Nyhoff, executive vice president in Chicago with Bank
of Tokyo/Mitsubishi Futures.
The futures have been climbing steadily since bouncing on Aug. 24, he
said.
"So you're seeing people squaring up a little bit before this report
comes out," said Nyhoff.
He later added: "It isn't as if the economy has fallen apart. It seems to
have hit a softer growth spot. So when all is said and done, do you really
want to be long at (long-time) highs going into a report that has so much
importance for monetary policy?"
He offered the view that much of the selling has been in the form of long
liquidation since many traders are likewise probably reluctant to short the
market and thus "defy" the recent trend, at least ahead of the data.
Economic reports this week that were softer than forecast included weekly
jobless claims Thursday morning (up 19,000 to 362,000), consumer confidence,
the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Institute for Supply Management's
manufacturing survey.
But while this reflected a waning of economic momentum, the employment
index in the Chicago PMI report climbed to 51.1 in August from 45.6 in July.
The decline in the ISM employment index was slight - to 55.7 in August from
57.3 in July - and it remained above the 50 level that signals economic
expansion in such diffusion indexes.
"Both of them were relatively strong, although obviously you got a bigger
pop in the Chicago (employment index) report," said Nyhoff.
This has prompted concern that the August non-farm payrolls growth will be
equal to or larger than the consensus forecast of 150,000, said Nyhoff. The
data is scheduled for release at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). The unemployment rate is
expected to remain at 5.5%.
Roseanne Briggen, senior market analyst in New York with Informa Global
Markets, also cited profit taking. The move may have been aided by the
pullback from the highs in crude oil, she added. While Oct crude settled up six
cents at $44.06, it was well down from its $45.37 high for the day.
In the current environment, higher oil prices have tended to be viewed as
bond friendly on ideas that escalating energy costs could slow economic
growth. That's a turnabout from years past, when high energy prices were
viewed as inflationary and thus bond bearish.
In the interest-rate pits, said Briggen, "people were taking profits.
They don't want to be long tomorrow, although I don't think they want to be
all that short, either."
Besides Friday's jobs report, there might also be some caution ahead of
President Bush's speech to the Republican national convention Thursday
evening, due to conjecture that Bush may be aware of Friday's jobs data,
Briggen added.
The nearby resistance for the Dec 10-year notes is the Wednesday high of
112-22.5, said Nyhoff. The next resistance above this is a ways away - at a
Bollinger-band level of 113-16 and a trendline around 115-02, he said.
"If we get through that 112-22-plus, it's certainly within the realm of
reason we could rally as much as another point before this market gets tired,"
Nyhoff said.
He put support around the Aug. 24 low of 110-30.
In Mar Eurodollars, Nyhoff put initial resistance at Wednesday's 97.63
high, then the high of 97.655 set after the July jobs report came out on Aug.
6. Above this, an intermediate-term trendline is a long ways away, around
97.90, said Nyhoff.
He put support around the Aug. 24 low of 97.45, which is also Bollinger-
band support.
Interest-rate futures at both the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago
Mercantile Exchange are scheduled to close at noon CT (1700 GMT) Friday ahead
of the three-day Labor Day weekend.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
DJ Debt Futures Review: Down On Profit Taking Ahead Of Jobs Data
By Allen Sykora
BEND, Ore. (Dow Jones)--Interest-rate futures in Chicago finished lower
Thursday as longs opted to square their positions in advance of Friday's key
report on the employment situation in August, traders said.
The longer end of the yield curve this week got up to its highest levels
in nearly half a year. Many participants are reluctant to want to go into the
hard-to-predict payrolls report with long positions at longtime highs, they
said.
Contacts said there appears to be some diversity of opinion on what the
report will show. While some of the data this week has been soft, they pointed
out that the employment portion of a couple key diffusion indexes suggested
the labor market just might be holding up better than some think.
Dec 10-year notes settled down 14 ticks at 112-even, Dec Treasury bonds
lost 24 ticks to 110-21, and Mar Eurodollars fell 5.5 basis points to 97.55.
The pullback comes after Dec 10-year notes on Wednesday got up to 112-
22.5 and Dec bonds got up to 111-28, their most muscular levels since March.
"Some people must have remembered the employment report is coming out
(Friday)," quipped John Nyhoff, executive vice president in Chicago with Bank
of Tokyo/Mitsubishi Futures.
The futures have been climbing steadily since bouncing on Aug. 24, he
said.
"So you're seeing people squaring up a little bit before this report
comes out," said Nyhoff.
He later added: "It isn't as if the economy has fallen apart. It seems to
have hit a softer growth spot. So when all is said and done, do you really
want to be long at (long-time) highs going into a report that has so much
importance for monetary policy?"
He offered the view that much of the selling has been in the form of long
liquidation since many traders are likewise probably reluctant to short the
market and thus "defy" the recent trend, at least ahead of the data.
Economic reports this week that were softer than forecast included weekly
jobless claims Thursday morning (up 19,000 to 362,000), consumer confidence,
the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index and Institute for Supply Management's
manufacturing survey.
But while this reflected a waning of economic momentum, the employment
index in the Chicago PMI report climbed to 51.1 in August from 45.6 in July.
The decline in the ISM employment index was slight - to 55.7 in August from
57.3 in July - and it remained above the 50 level that signals economic
expansion in such diffusion indexes.
"Both of them were relatively strong, although obviously you got a bigger
pop in the Chicago (employment index) report," said Nyhoff.
This has prompted concern that the August non-farm payrolls growth will be
equal to or larger than the consensus forecast of 150,000, said Nyhoff. The
data is scheduled for release at 0730 CT (1230 GMT). The unemployment rate is
expected to remain at 5.5%.
Roseanne Briggen, senior market analyst in New York with Informa Global
Markets, also cited profit taking. The move may have been aided by the
pullback from the highs in crude oil, she added. While Oct crude settled up six
cents at $44.06, it was well down from its $45.37 high for the day.
In the current environment, higher oil prices have tended to be viewed as
bond friendly on ideas that escalating energy costs could slow economic
growth. That's a turnabout from years past, when high energy prices were
viewed as inflationary and thus bond bearish.
In the interest-rate pits, said Briggen, "people were taking profits.
They don't want to be long tomorrow, although I don't think they want to be
all that short, either."
Besides Friday's jobs report, there might also be some caution ahead of
President Bush's speech to the Republican national convention Thursday
evening, due to conjecture that Bush may be aware of Friday's jobs data,
Briggen added.
The nearby resistance for the Dec 10-year notes is the Wednesday high of
112-22.5, said Nyhoff. The next resistance above this is a ways away - at a
Bollinger-band level of 113-16 and a trendline around 115-02, he said.
"If we get through that 112-22-plus, it's certainly within the realm of
reason we could rally as much as another point before this market gets tired,"
Nyhoff said.
He put support around the Aug. 24 low of 110-30.
In Mar Eurodollars, Nyhoff put initial resistance at Wednesday's 97.63
high, then the high of 97.655 set after the July jobs report came out on Aug.
6. Above this, an intermediate-term trendline is a long ways away, around
97.90, said Nyhoff.
He put support around the Aug. 24 low of 97.45, which is also Bollinger-
band support.
Interest-rate futures at both the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago
Mercantile Exchange are scheduled to close at noon CT (1700 GMT) Friday ahead
of the three-day Labor Day weekend.
-By Allen Sykora; Dow Jones Newswires; 541-318-8765;
[email protected]
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Da Bloomberg
U.S. 10-Year Treasuries Fall Most in 5 Weeks Before Jobs Report
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell the most in five weeks before a report tomorrow projected to show job growth accelerated in August.
Investors were reluctant to add to their holdings with yields, which move inversely to prices, near a five-month low, and with the government slated to auction a combined $24 billion in five- and 10-year notes next Wednesday and Thursday. Demand for government debt rose the past three days after indexes measuring manufacturing and consumer confidence declined.
``We've priced in a lot of any kind of weakness you could imagine we might get,'' said Glen Capelo, who trades Treasuries for RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Even if the employment number is weak again, you have to believe the economy is truly turning, not just moderating, in order to truly want to buy at these levels.''
The 4 1/4 percent note maturing in August 2014 declined about 3/4, or $7.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 9/32 at 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP, the biggest drop since July 27. Its yield rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.21 percent, after falling as low as 4.08 percent yesterday.
The 2 3/8 percent note maturing in August 2006 fell 1/8 to 99 27/32, pushing yields up 8 basis points to 2.46 percent. The yield exceeds the Federal Reserve's 1.5 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by 0.96 percentage point, down from about 1.75 percentage points just before the central bank started raising rates in June.
Labor Department data tomorrow will probably show businesses hired 150,000 workers last month, almost five times the number created in July, according to the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Traders expect 166,000 in job gains for August, an auction of economic derivatives indicated. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG held the auction, and will hold one more tomorrow morning.
`Beginning Stages'
Job growth fell short of median estimates in both June and July, spurring a drop in 10-year yields from almost 4.9 percent in mid-June.
With a payrolls number matching the consensus forecast, Treasuries will be ``at the beginning stages of a sell-off'' that may send 10-year yields back up to about 4.30 percent, said Jon Blumenfeld, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas, one of 22 primary government securities dealers that trade with the Fed's New York branch.
At their lows this week, yields were ``pricing in too much weakness'' in the economy, he said.
In a sign the rally of the past few weeks may have gone too far, the relative strength index on 10-year note futures exceeded 70 the past two days. Readings of 70 or above are considered ``overbought,'' meaning the note's price may be poised to decline. The RSI, which is derived by averaging out daily gains and losses for a fixed period, fell to 63.18 today.
Treasury Sales
The Treasury Department said it will sell $15 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday, unchanged from the three previous monthly sales, and $9 billion of 10-year notes on Thursday.
Treasuries briefly erased losses after the Labor Department said the number of people filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 362,000 from 343,000 the week before. About half the rise was from the hurricane that struck Florida last month, the government said.
U.S. factory orders rose in July for the third straight month, government figures showed. Orders climbed 1.3 percent after a revised 1.2 percent gain in June.
The Fed is still expected to lift its key interest rate for a third time this year, to 1.75 percent, at the bank's Sept. 21 policy meeting, according to interest-rate futures. Policy makers lifted the benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point in June and August.
Federal funds futures, which indicate expectations for the average overnight interest rate, show traders see about 80 percent odds the central bank will raise its target rate to 1.75 percent this month. The yield on the September fed funds futures contract is 1.565 percent.
`No Upside'
``We don't see much upside, but there is significant downside if we get a strong employment number,'' said Mark Mahoney, head of interest-rate strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, another primary dealer.
A 50-basis-point increase in 10-year yields during the next three weeks is possible with a 250,000 rise in jobs, he said.
Ten-year yields are down from 4.88 percent in mid-June as inflation and job growth slowed, and as oil prices reached record highs, stoking speculation the Fed will slow the pace of interest- rate increases.
Falling Treasury yields pulled the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages down to 5.77 percent from 6.32 percent in mid- June, according to Freddie Mac, the second-biggest buyer of U.S. mortgages. On a $150,000 loan, the decline in borrowing costs reduces monthly payments by about $53.
`Awfully Low'
``We continue to expect yields to revert to their long-term real-rate average,'' said William Fitzgerald, who oversees $55 billion as head of fixed income at Nuveen Investments in Chicago. A 10-year yield above 4.75 percent would be more appropriate given the current rate of inflation, he said. ``Yields are awfully low.''
After subtracting the annual increase in core consumer prices, 10-year notes yield 2.42 percent, down from 3.70 percent in June. The so-called real yield averaged 2.87 percent average in the past year.
Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Treasury Master Index shows government debt returned 4.58 percent from June 13 through yesterday, including interest payments. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks is down 1.72 percent over that time.
Automotive Sales
Yesterday, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler AG all said U.S. vehicles sales fell in August. Today, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said U.S. sales at stores open at least a year rose 0.5 percent last month, the smallest gain in almost four years.
Industry reports showed both Chicago-area and nationwide manufacturing slowed this month, while government statistics showed consumer confidence fell.
The Monster Employment Index, which measures employee demand based on online recruiting, rose 8.2 percent in August to its highest level since its October start. The index increased to 145 after falling 1.5 percent to 134 in July, according to Monster Worldwide Inc., based in New York.
The Fed's holdings of Treasury and agency debt for foreign central banks and international accounts rose by $4.947 billion to a total of $1.283 trillion in the week that ended yesterday, according to the New York Fed.
U.S. 10-Year Treasuries Fall Most in 5 Weeks Before Jobs Report
Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes fell the most in five weeks before a report tomorrow projected to show job growth accelerated in August.
Investors were reluctant to add to their holdings with yields, which move inversely to prices, near a five-month low, and with the government slated to auction a combined $24 billion in five- and 10-year notes next Wednesday and Thursday. Demand for government debt rose the past three days after indexes measuring manufacturing and consumer confidence declined.
``We've priced in a lot of any kind of weakness you could imagine we might get,'' said Glen Capelo, who trades Treasuries for RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``Even if the employment number is weak again, you have to believe the economy is truly turning, not just moderating, in order to truly want to buy at these levels.''
The 4 1/4 percent note maturing in August 2014 declined about 3/4, or $7.50 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 9/32 at 5:01 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP, the biggest drop since July 27. Its yield rose 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point, to 4.21 percent, after falling as low as 4.08 percent yesterday.
The 2 3/8 percent note maturing in August 2006 fell 1/8 to 99 27/32, pushing yields up 8 basis points to 2.46 percent. The yield exceeds the Federal Reserve's 1.5 percent target rate for overnight loans between banks by 0.96 percentage point, down from about 1.75 percentage points just before the central bank started raising rates in June.
Labor Department data tomorrow will probably show businesses hired 150,000 workers last month, almost five times the number created in July, according to the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Traders expect 166,000 in job gains for August, an auction of economic derivatives indicated. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG held the auction, and will hold one more tomorrow morning.
`Beginning Stages'
Job growth fell short of median estimates in both June and July, spurring a drop in 10-year yields from almost 4.9 percent in mid-June.
With a payrolls number matching the consensus forecast, Treasuries will be ``at the beginning stages of a sell-off'' that may send 10-year yields back up to about 4.30 percent, said Jon Blumenfeld, an interest-rate strategist in New York at BNP Paribas, one of 22 primary government securities dealers that trade with the Fed's New York branch.
At their lows this week, yields were ``pricing in too much weakness'' in the economy, he said.
In a sign the rally of the past few weeks may have gone too far, the relative strength index on 10-year note futures exceeded 70 the past two days. Readings of 70 or above are considered ``overbought,'' meaning the note's price may be poised to decline. The RSI, which is derived by averaging out daily gains and losses for a fixed period, fell to 63.18 today.
Treasury Sales
The Treasury Department said it will sell $15 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday, unchanged from the three previous monthly sales, and $9 billion of 10-year notes on Thursday.
Treasuries briefly erased losses after the Labor Department said the number of people filing initial claims for jobless benefits rose last week to 362,000 from 343,000 the week before. About half the rise was from the hurricane that struck Florida last month, the government said.
U.S. factory orders rose in July for the third straight month, government figures showed. Orders climbed 1.3 percent after a revised 1.2 percent gain in June.
The Fed is still expected to lift its key interest rate for a third time this year, to 1.75 percent, at the bank's Sept. 21 policy meeting, according to interest-rate futures. Policy makers lifted the benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point in June and August.
Federal funds futures, which indicate expectations for the average overnight interest rate, show traders see about 80 percent odds the central bank will raise its target rate to 1.75 percent this month. The yield on the September fed funds futures contract is 1.565 percent.
`No Upside'
``We don't see much upside, but there is significant downside if we get a strong employment number,'' said Mark Mahoney, head of interest-rate strategy at UBS Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut, another primary dealer.
A 50-basis-point increase in 10-year yields during the next three weeks is possible with a 250,000 rise in jobs, he said.
Ten-year yields are down from 4.88 percent in mid-June as inflation and job growth slowed, and as oil prices reached record highs, stoking speculation the Fed will slow the pace of interest- rate increases.
Falling Treasury yields pulled the average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages down to 5.77 percent from 6.32 percent in mid- June, according to Freddie Mac, the second-biggest buyer of U.S. mortgages. On a $150,000 loan, the decline in borrowing costs reduces monthly payments by about $53.
`Awfully Low'
``We continue to expect yields to revert to their long-term real-rate average,'' said William Fitzgerald, who oversees $55 billion as head of fixed income at Nuveen Investments in Chicago. A 10-year yield above 4.75 percent would be more appropriate given the current rate of inflation, he said. ``Yields are awfully low.''
After subtracting the annual increase in core consumer prices, 10-year notes yield 2.42 percent, down from 3.70 percent in June. The so-called real yield averaged 2.87 percent average in the past year.
Merrill Lynch & Co.'s Treasury Master Index shows government debt returned 4.58 percent from June 13 through yesterday, including interest payments. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index of stocks is down 1.72 percent over that time.
Automotive Sales
Yesterday, Ford Motor Co., General Motors Corp. and DaimlerChrysler AG all said U.S. vehicles sales fell in August. Today, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said U.S. sales at stores open at least a year rose 0.5 percent last month, the smallest gain in almost four years.
Industry reports showed both Chicago-area and nationwide manufacturing slowed this month, while government statistics showed consumer confidence fell.
The Monster Employment Index, which measures employee demand based on online recruiting, rose 8.2 percent in August to its highest level since its October start. The index increased to 145 after falling 1.5 percent to 134 in July, according to Monster Worldwide Inc., based in New York.
The Fed's holdings of Treasury and agency debt for foreign central banks and international accounts rose by $4.947 billion to a total of $1.283 trillion in the week that ended yesterday, according to the New York Fed.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti ,
da questo link potete vedere le aspettative delle singole banche d'investimento sui dati di oggi
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPlGiik17i7w&refer=news_index
Livelli sul bund:
r3 116.73
r2 116.27
r1 115.99
pivot 115.81
s1 115.53
s2 115.35
s3 114.89
Da inizio anno ho perduto due terzi dei miei profitti sui vari dati di payrolls che sono usciti, quindi oggi sono un pò nervoso
- per fortuna al momento sono ancora addormentato quindi anche l'adrenalina viaggia lenta ... cerco una ricetta golosa da postare nel Caffè, vado a prendere il pane e cercherò di svegliarmi con molta calma
,da questo link potete vedere le aspettative delle singole banche d'investimento sui dati di oggi
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aPlGiik17i7w&refer=news_index
Livelli sul bund:
r3 116.73
r2 116.27
r1 115.99
pivot 115.81
s1 115.53
s2 115.35
s3 114.89
Da inizio anno ho perduto due terzi dei miei profitti sui vari dati di payrolls che sono usciti, quindi oggi sono un pò nervoso
- per fortuna al momento sono ancora addormentato quindi anche l'adrenalina viaggia lenta ... cerco una ricetta golosa da postare nel Caffè, vado a prendere il pane e cercherò di svegliarmi con molta calma
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