arseniolupin
Forumer storico
ora me vado nella chat del sito.
chi viene a tenermi compagnia?
chi viene a tenermi compagnia?
Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa)
- Creatore Discussione Noooo
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
U.S. Treasuries lower following "ugly" auction
Thu Sep 9, 2004 02:07 PM ET
(Recasts, updates prices)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.
"It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury given the amount of borrowing they have to do," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.
The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195 percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level.
The current 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 6/32 in price, lifting its yield to 4.19 percent from 4.16 percent on Wednesday. In when-issued trading, yields on the new 10-year paper had hovered around 4.17 percent before the sale.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only 2.8 percent of the issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes and 38 percent at the last reopening.
Primary dealers took $8.65 billion of the issue, or nearly all of it while direct bidders took only $61 million in a return to more typical levels after the huge bidding increase seen at Wednesday's five-year sale.
"The real surprise is that none of the usual indirect bidders turned up," said Robbins. "Maybe they were scared away by the jump in direct bidding (Wednesday) though they were going to get sucked in to paying more than they wanted."
Direct bidders bought 32 percent of the five-year sale, a complete surprise to traders since they usually only take 1 percent to 2 percent.
With dealers now stuck with an excess of 10-year paper, analysts said there was a risk they would seek to sell it off quickly to avoid even larger losses.
The danger depressed the rest of the market, with the two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) easing 1/32. Its yield rose to 2.49 percent from 2.48 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 15/32, taking yields to 4.98 percent from 4.96 percent.
The new five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost most of their early gains to yield 3.41 percent, just down from the 3.439 percent achieved at Wednesday's auction.
Bonds had dipped early when a surprisingly sharp 44,000 drop in weekly initial jobless claims sparked about of profit-taking. But analysts saw little import in the series as it has been distorted by seasonal adjustment problems and hurricanes in recent weeks.
"Hurricanes come and hurricanes go," said Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist at RBS Financial Markets. "Setting aside the weather, we still think the labor market is improving and payrolls should rise around 165,000 this month."
Other data showed import prices jumped 1.7 percent in July largely due to a huge rise in petroleum costs while consumer goods prices were unchanged.
Bhagavatula, however, noted that excluding petroleum, import prices were up a not inconsiderable 3.2 percent on the year. "Perhaps Greenspan was a bit premature in calling the inflation threat over," he said.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress the economy had "regained some traction" and observed that inflation -- and inflation expectations -- had eased.
The market still fully expects the Fed to hike rates at its meeting on Sept. 21, but the comments led to speculation it may pause after that.
But Bhagavatula thinks the Fed will hike rates at every remaining meeting this year, taking rates to 2.25 percent in time for Christmas.
Thu Sep 9, 2004 02:07 PM ET
(Recasts, updates prices)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Treasuries prices turned lower in choppy trade on Thursday as an auction of U.S. government debt drew almost no private demand, leaving the dealer community holding a pile of paper.
"It was an extremely ugly auction. And that's something nobody wants to see, not the Street and certainly not Treasury given the amount of borrowing they have to do," said Sadakichi Robbins, head of global fixed-income trading at Bank Julius Baer.
The sale of $9 billion in reopened 10-year Treasury notes went at a high yield of 4.195 percent, well above expectations, and drew bids for only 2.12 times the amount on offer, down from August's 2.90 level.
The current 10-year note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 6/32 in price, lifting its yield to 4.19 percent from 4.16 percent on Wednesday. In when-issued trading, yields on the new 10-year paper had hovered around 4.17 percent before the sale.
Indirect bidders, including customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, picked up only 2.8 percent of the issue. That compares to 54 percent in the original sale of the notes and 38 percent at the last reopening.
Primary dealers took $8.65 billion of the issue, or nearly all of it while direct bidders took only $61 million in a return to more typical levels after the huge bidding increase seen at Wednesday's five-year sale.
"The real surprise is that none of the usual indirect bidders turned up," said Robbins. "Maybe they were scared away by the jump in direct bidding (Wednesday) though they were going to get sucked in to paying more than they wanted."
Direct bidders bought 32 percent of the five-year sale, a complete surprise to traders since they usually only take 1 percent to 2 percent.
With dealers now stuck with an excess of 10-year paper, analysts said there was a risk they would seek to sell it off quickly to avoid even larger losses.
The danger depressed the rest of the market, with the two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) easing 1/32. Its yield rose to 2.49 percent from 2.48 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 15/32, taking yields to 4.98 percent from 4.96 percent.
The new five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) lost most of their early gains to yield 3.41 percent, just down from the 3.439 percent achieved at Wednesday's auction.
Bonds had dipped early when a surprisingly sharp 44,000 drop in weekly initial jobless claims sparked about of profit-taking. But analysts saw little import in the series as it has been distorted by seasonal adjustment problems and hurricanes in recent weeks.
"Hurricanes come and hurricanes go," said Ram Bhagavatula, chief economist at RBS Financial Markets. "Setting aside the weather, we still think the labor market is improving and payrolls should rise around 165,000 this month."
Other data showed import prices jumped 1.7 percent in July largely due to a huge rise in petroleum costs while consumer goods prices were unchanged.
Bhagavatula, however, noted that excluding petroleum, import prices were up a not inconsiderable 3.2 percent on the year. "Perhaps Greenspan was a bit premature in calling the inflation threat over," he said.
On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan told Congress the economy had "regained some traction" and observed that inflation -- and inflation expectations -- had eased.
The market still fully expects the Fed to hike rates at its meeting on Sept. 21, but the comments led to speculation it may pause after that.
But Bhagavatula thinks the Fed will hike rates at every remaining meeting this year, taking rates to 2.25 percent in time for Christmas.
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Occhio 
Fed may need to pause on US rate hikes - Yellen
Thu Sep 9, 2004 04:00 PM ET
SEATTLE, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates must rise from their current very low levels but there might be need to pause if the economy slows more than presently expected, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said on Thursday.
Speaking at a Fed-sponsored luncheon, Yellen noted the fed funds rate of 1.5 percent was well below estimates of an equilibrium rate of between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent.
"With the actual funds rate currently as low as it is, there is thus reason for a strong presumption that rates will need to keep going up as we move forward," she said.
Still, the Fed must remain very watchful as developments unfold and be prepared to consider modifications in its course of action as needed to ensure price stability, said Yellen.
"There might be a need to consider pausing in the process of raising rates if slower growth in demand caused economic activity to slow down," she said. "This concern seems less acute than it did a month or so ago. But I still see it as a significant issue, warranting careful attention."
On the other hand, Yellen said there could be a need to consider moving more aggressively if inflation showed signs of rising significantly. However, she added: "There is reason to feel somewhat more comfortable than I did a few months ago that core inflation is still well contained."
Fed may need to pause on US rate hikes - Yellen
Thu Sep 9, 2004 04:00 PM ET
SEATTLE, Sept 9 (Reuters) - U.S. interest rates must rise from their current very low levels but there might be need to pause if the economy slows more than presently expected, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said on Thursday.
Speaking at a Fed-sponsored luncheon, Yellen noted the fed funds rate of 1.5 percent was well below estimates of an equilibrium rate of between 3.5 percent and 4.5 percent.
"With the actual funds rate currently as low as it is, there is thus reason for a strong presumption that rates will need to keep going up as we move forward," she said.
Still, the Fed must remain very watchful as developments unfold and be prepared to consider modifications in its course of action as needed to ensure price stability, said Yellen.
"There might be a need to consider pausing in the process of raising rates if slower growth in demand caused economic activity to slow down," she said. "This concern seems less acute than it did a month or so ago. But I still see it as a significant issue, warranting careful attention."
On the other hand, Yellen said there could be a need to consider moving more aggressively if inflation showed signs of rising significantly. However, she added: "There is reason to feel somewhat more comfortable than I did a few months ago that core inflation is still well contained."
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Buongiorno a tutti 
, lettura interessante da Bloomberg - vado a farmi un caffettino, a dopo
U.S. 10-Year Note Heads for Weekly Gain as Overseas Funds Raise Holdings
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were poised for the biggest weekly gain in six after a report showed overseas funds increased holdings over the past week, lured by one-month high yields following the jobs report last Friday.
The Federal Reserve said its holdings of Treasury and government-agency debt for foreign central banks and international accounts rose by $8.308 billion to $1.29 trillion in the week ended Wednesday. Demand for debt also rose after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan this week was less optimistic about the economy than some had expected.
``Ever since Treasuries backed up 20 basis points following the U.S. jobs data last Friday, there has been very strong real money buying out of Asia,'' said Indrajit Advani, co-head of fixed-income sales in Southeast Asia at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore. ``The buying has been corroborated by the Fed custody holdings data, which showed another jump.''
The 4 1/4 percent note due in August 2014 rose 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount to 100 16/32 at 1:20 p.m. in Singapore, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Its yield fell 2 basis points to 4.18 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Royal Bank of Scotland is the parent company of RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc., one of 22 government securities firms, or so-called primary dealers, that trade directly with the Fed's New York branch.
Treasuries declined last week after the Labor Department said the economy added 144,000 jobs in August, from 73,000 the prior month, the biggest increase since May.
Japan Slowdown
Demand for debt may also increase after the Japanese government unexpectedly cut its second-quarter growth estimate. The report comes a day after the country's machinery orders fell the most since September 2001.
``Japan has had another set of weak figures as its GDP comes in lower then expected,'' said Singapore-based Kenny Borowicz, a broker of Treasury futures and other financial instruments at UOB Bullion & Futures Ltd., a unit of Singapore's second-largest lender. ``That has given a bid to Japanese debt, and this has spilled over into U.S. debt.''
At an auction of 10-year notes yesterday, demand for the $9 billion of notes sold fell to the lowest since March. For every $1 of 10-year notes auctioned there were $2.12 of bids, down from $2.90 in August and the lowest since $1.81 in March. The amount sold was the smallest since November 2001.
`Almost Nothing'
Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, bought 2.9 percent of the amount sold, the lowest on record since the Treasury began providing such details in May 2003. Indirect bidders bought 54.7 percent of the 10-year notes sold in August and 38.6 percent in June.
``Demand was extremely disappointing, almost nothing from foreign bidders,'' said Toshihiko Sakai, a Singapore-based trader at Mitsubishi Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan's second- biggest lender. ``Investors see yields rising with the Fed expected to raise rates this month and are holding off purchases.''
Jack Guynn of the Atlanta Fed said in an interview the central bank has scope to raise interest rates at least another half-percentage point in coming months without threatening the economic expansion.
The Fed raised the overnight rate a quarter percentage point each in June and August to 1.5 percent. Interest-rate futures indicate investors expect the Fed will raise rates at two of three remaining meetings this year. Policy makers will meet on Sept. 21, and again in November and December.
Federal funds futures, which indicate expectations for the average overnight rate in a given month, show traders are certain the central bank will raise the federal funds target to 1.75 percent when they meet this month. September federal funds futures yield 1.58 percent, in line with what the rate would average with a quarter-point increase this month.
Fed Talk
Fed Governor Edward Gramlich and Sandra Pianalto of the Cleveland Fed, Robert McTeer of the Dallas branch and St. Louis Fed president William Poole will all speak today.
Greenspan told the House Budget Committee on Wednesday ``innumerable areas'' of the economy are doing poorly and inflation expectations have ``eased.''
U.S. producer prices excluding energy and food probably rose 0.1 percent for a second month in August, matching the smallest gain since February, according to the median estimate of 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
U.S. growth this quarter will be at a 3.7 percent annual rate, slower than the 3.9 percent estimated last month, according to the median of 61 economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News monthly survey.
Economists have slashed half a percentage point from third- quarter estimates over the past two months on concern higher energy prices will curb consumer spending on other items.
The economy grew an annual 2.8 percent from April through June, slower than the government earlier estimated.
, lettura interessante da Bloomberg - vado a farmi un caffettino, a dopo U.S. 10-Year Note Heads for Weekly Gain as Overseas Funds Raise Holdings
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. 10-year Treasury notes were poised for the biggest weekly gain in six after a report showed overseas funds increased holdings over the past week, lured by one-month high yields following the jobs report last Friday.
The Federal Reserve said its holdings of Treasury and government-agency debt for foreign central banks and international accounts rose by $8.308 billion to $1.29 trillion in the week ended Wednesday. Demand for debt also rose after Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan this week was less optimistic about the economy than some had expected.
``Ever since Treasuries backed up 20 basis points following the U.S. jobs data last Friday, there has been very strong real money buying out of Asia,'' said Indrajit Advani, co-head of fixed-income sales in Southeast Asia at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore. ``The buying has been corroborated by the Fed custody holdings data, which showed another jump.''
The 4 1/4 percent note due in August 2014 rose 3/32, or 94 cents per $1,000 face amount to 100 16/32 at 1:20 p.m. in Singapore, according to New York-based bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. Its yield fell 2 basis points to 4.18 percent. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
Royal Bank of Scotland is the parent company of RBS Greenwich Capital Markets Inc., one of 22 government securities firms, or so-called primary dealers, that trade directly with the Fed's New York branch.
Treasuries declined last week after the Labor Department said the economy added 144,000 jobs in August, from 73,000 the prior month, the biggest increase since May.
Japan Slowdown
Demand for debt may also increase after the Japanese government unexpectedly cut its second-quarter growth estimate. The report comes a day after the country's machinery orders fell the most since September 2001.
``Japan has had another set of weak figures as its GDP comes in lower then expected,'' said Singapore-based Kenny Borowicz, a broker of Treasury futures and other financial instruments at UOB Bullion & Futures Ltd., a unit of Singapore's second-largest lender. ``That has given a bid to Japanese debt, and this has spilled over into U.S. debt.''
At an auction of 10-year notes yesterday, demand for the $9 billion of notes sold fell to the lowest since March. For every $1 of 10-year notes auctioned there were $2.12 of bids, down from $2.90 in August and the lowest since $1.81 in March. The amount sold was the smallest since November 2001.
`Almost Nothing'
Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, bought 2.9 percent of the amount sold, the lowest on record since the Treasury began providing such details in May 2003. Indirect bidders bought 54.7 percent of the 10-year notes sold in August and 38.6 percent in June.
``Demand was extremely disappointing, almost nothing from foreign bidders,'' said Toshihiko Sakai, a Singapore-based trader at Mitsubishi Trust & Banking Corp., a unit of Japan's second- biggest lender. ``Investors see yields rising with the Fed expected to raise rates this month and are holding off purchases.''
Jack Guynn of the Atlanta Fed said in an interview the central bank has scope to raise interest rates at least another half-percentage point in coming months without threatening the economic expansion.
The Fed raised the overnight rate a quarter percentage point each in June and August to 1.5 percent. Interest-rate futures indicate investors expect the Fed will raise rates at two of three remaining meetings this year. Policy makers will meet on Sept. 21, and again in November and December.
Federal funds futures, which indicate expectations for the average overnight rate in a given month, show traders are certain the central bank will raise the federal funds target to 1.75 percent when they meet this month. September federal funds futures yield 1.58 percent, in line with what the rate would average with a quarter-point increase this month.
Fed Talk
Fed Governor Edward Gramlich and Sandra Pianalto of the Cleveland Fed, Robert McTeer of the Dallas branch and St. Louis Fed president William Poole will all speak today.
Greenspan told the House Budget Committee on Wednesday ``innumerable areas'' of the economy are doing poorly and inflation expectations have ``eased.''
U.S. producer prices excluding energy and food probably rose 0.1 percent for a second month in August, matching the smallest gain since February, according to the median estimate of 65 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
U.S. growth this quarter will be at a 3.7 percent annual rate, slower than the 3.9 percent estimated last month, according to the median of 61 economists' forecasts in a Bloomberg News monthly survey.
Economists have slashed half a percentage point from third- quarter estimates over the past two months on concern higher energy prices will curb consumer spending on other items.
The economy grew an annual 2.8 percent from April through June, slower than the government earlier estimated.
salvina
Forumer attivo
Buongiorno a tutti
volevo fare una considerazione : quando ho incominciato a tradare
il bund...avevo la mania di mettermi sempre long...e mi ricordo che
con simpatia e affetto tutti mi dicevate...attenzione Salvina che il
bund non lascia feriti sul campo....
ebbene da un paio di mesi mi è presa la mania di shortarlo e mi sta
facendo sudare le camicie di Ercole....sono corta da 114,36 e questo
maledetto non vuole sapere di scendere....
la mia propensione alla perdita è di 20 punti...ora mi metto a scalparlo
e cerco di uscire...mi sono scocciata....come la vedete?
ciao Riccardo ieri ho letto la tua perdita, più o meno e quello che lasciai
io sul campo il 6 agosto...poi ho recuperato grattando ma non sono
ancora in zona gain...vedrai che ci rifaremo...
volevo fare una considerazione : quando ho incominciato a tradare
il bund...avevo la mania di mettermi sempre long...e mi ricordo che
con simpatia e affetto tutti mi dicevate...attenzione Salvina che il
bund non lascia feriti sul campo....
ebbene da un paio di mesi mi è presa la mania di shortarlo e mi sta
facendo sudare le camicie di Ercole....sono corta da 114,36 e questo
maledetto non vuole sapere di scendere....
la mia propensione alla perdita è di 20 punti...ora mi metto a scalparlo
e cerco di uscire...mi sono scocciata....come la vedete?
ciao Riccardo ieri ho letto la tua perdita, più o meno e quello che lasciai
io sul campo il 6 agosto...poi ho recuperato grattando ma non sono
ancora in zona gain...vedrai che ci rifaremo...
ditropan
Forumer storico
salvina ha scritto:Buongiorno a tutti
volevo fare una considerazione : quando ho incominciato a tradare
il bund...avevo la mania di mettermi sempre long...e mi ricordo che
con simpatia e affetto tutti mi dicevate...attenzione Salvina che il
bund non lascia feriti sul campo....
ebbene da un paio di mesi mi è presa la mania di shortarlo e mi sta
facendo sudare le camicie di Ercole....sono corta da 114,36 e questo
maledetto non vuole sapere di scendere....
la mia propensione alla perdita è di 20 punti...ora mi metto a scalparlo
e cerco di uscire...mi sono scocciata....come la vedete?
ciao Riccardo ieri ho letto la tua perdita, più o meno e quello che lasciai
io sul campo il 6 agosto...poi ho recuperato grattando ma non sono
ancora in zona gain...vedrai che ci rifaremo...
ciao cara
... se il daxxe sfonda i 3900 vedi come atterra il bund .... al momento il massimo che si possa strizzare da uno short sul bund è S1, ovvero i 114,48 .... se ti vuoi fermare prima ci sono i 114,69 che sarebbe il pivot point per oggi.
ditropan
Forumer storico
salvina ha scritto:ditropan ha scritto:
ciao Andrea, sai per caso quando si potrà tradare il bund di marzo?
mi sembra che adesso non si possa...ne sai qualcosa ?
grazie e ciao
Il bund di marzo e già in negoziazione ma ha uno spread enorme che non lo rende usabile ... spesso il MM poi è assente dal book.
Similar threads
