Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE Bund, T-bond, T-note, Crude,....(vietato ai minori di 75aa) (4 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione Noooo
- Data di Inizio
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Ciao Avvocato 
, ti ringrazio per gli auguri, dammi il tempo di arrivare al 20 ottobre , poi il "trenta" che sta davanti al numerone lo tolgo...e già resterei comunque un bambino scemo 
, ti ringrazio per gli auguri, dammi il tempo di arrivare al 20 ottobre , poi il "trenta" che sta davanti al numerone lo tolgo...e già resterei comunque un bambino scemo 
salvina
Forumer attivo
gastronomo ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:procede tutto bene ric
ditro non ti crucciar
Bene, conosco un perenne shortatore di bund con manie gastronomiche...
Ecco, che vengono fuori gli altarini....
il nostro Riccardo è unbilancia.....
con predisposizione alla vena artistica...(gastronomia)...e il senso della coerenza...complimenti!!
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Ecco fatto : prenotata di nuovo l'autobotte per il 20 ottobre
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
tornando ai nostri "cari" bonds, delineato doppio minimo a 111,875, sembra avviato al test dei max di periodo, prima area di resistenza attorno a 112,5
orcolo non sembra abbiano paura dell'appuntamento di domani
orcolo non sembra abbiano paura dell'appuntamento di domani
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Ciao Salvina, sulla vena artistica sei stata generosa , sulla coerenza concordo...il problema è che sono poco furbo
, sulla coerenza concordo...il problema è che sono poco furbo 
ditropan
Forumer storico
Usa: Ubm stima tassi al 2% entro 2004, al 3,25% in 12 mesi
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Nonostante gli ultimi dati macroeconomici abbiano fornito indicazioni contrastanti sullo stato di salute dell'economia statunitense, la Fed porterà avanti il programma di moderato incremento dei tassi di interesse Usa al 2% entro la fine del 2004.
È quanto si legge in un report di Ubm, secondo cui la Fed potrebbe decidere a dicembre di interrompere momentaneamente la revisione dei tassi per poi tornare ad alzare il costo del denaro fino al 3,25% nell'arco dei prossimi 12 mesi. red/frc
MILANO (MF-DJ)--Nonostante gli ultimi dati macroeconomici abbiano fornito indicazioni contrastanti sullo stato di salute dell'economia statunitense, la Fed porterà avanti il programma di moderato incremento dei tassi di interesse Usa al 2% entro la fine del 2004.
È quanto si legge in un report di Ubm, secondo cui la Fed potrebbe decidere a dicembre di interrompere momentaneamente la revisione dei tassi per poi tornare ad alzare il costo del denaro fino al 3,25% nell'arco dei prossimi 12 mesi. red/frc
gastronomo
Forumer storico
US Treasuries edge ahead as Fed meeting looms
Mon Sep 20, 2004 09:39 AM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices ground higher on Monday as investors trimmed short positions on speculation that while the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting this week, it could also set a dovish future tack.
The 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 4/32 in price, lowering yields to 4.095 percent from 4.11 percent late on Friday. Chart barriers are seen at 4.135 percent and 4.20 percent on the topside, and 4.05 percent and 4.00 percent underneath.
Fed officials have made it clear that current interest rates of 1.50 percent are unusually, and unnecessarily, low and need to be raised. Taking the hint, the market has priced in a 25 basis point move on Tuesday to 1.75 percent.
"The outcome is completely discounted," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at BTM. The market also puts a 100 percent chance of a further move to 2.00 percent by year-end, but there is much is uncertainty whether it will come at the November or December meeting.
Investors are hoping the Fed will make its intentions a little clearer in its post-meeting statement, though the central bank dislikes locking itself into any one path.
Bond bulls are betting the Fed will soften its policy line by acknowledging the recent moderation of inflationary pressures and the still-patchy performance of the economy.
Others, however, thought the data has been strong enough for the Fed to stick to its optimistic line.
"The Fed's press release could be written a little more bullishly for the economy than last time," said Rupkey, perhaps using some version of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's assertion earlier this month that the economy had regained traction.
Such a formula would likely trigger a wave of profit-taking in bonds given the recent run-up in prices. With so much riding on the Fed's words, Treasury trading was understandably tense.
Yields on two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) hovered around 2.48 percent while those on the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged down to 3.31 percent from 3.33 percent late Friday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 8/32 in price, lowering its yield to 4.89 percent from 4.91 percent.
The yield curve extended its recent flattening trend, with the gap between two and 10-year yields narrowing to 162 basis points -- the smallest spread since Sept. 2001.
The decline in longer-term yields has owed much to speculation the Fed will soon pause in its tightening campaign. At least one U.S. bank last week told clients the Fed intended to reach 2.0 percent and then go on indefinite hold, a long way short of traditional estimates of neutral policy which encompass a broad range of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent.
"The argument is making the rounds that the Fed may well stop at 1.75 percent or 2.00 percent, heralding a new era of super-low "neutral" Fed funds rates," analysts at Lehman Brothers noted in their weekly outlook, adding they disagree.
If this was true, then long-term yields could fall yet further given the gap between 10-year yields and the 3-month T-bill has averaged about 150 basis points since the beginning of 1960, implying a 3.50 percent yield should 2.00 percent come to be viewed as the steady-state level of fed funds.
"The flaw with this line of reasoning is that dramatic revisions to longer-term Fed fund expectations do not occur in a month," argued Lehman's analysts.
They noted Fed fund futures and Eurodollars were still pricing in rates of 3.0 percent by the end of next year.
"Instead, the flattening rally appears to have been driven by either further short covering or the general decline in risk premium best reflected in the tightening spreads in lower-credit quality sectors and, particularly, emerging markets," said Lehman.
Mon Sep 20, 2004 09:39 AM ET
NEW YORK, Sept 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices ground higher on Monday as investors trimmed short positions on speculation that while the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its policy meeting this week, it could also set a dovish future tack.
The 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 4/32 in price, lowering yields to 4.095 percent from 4.11 percent late on Friday. Chart barriers are seen at 4.135 percent and 4.20 percent on the topside, and 4.05 percent and 4.00 percent underneath.
Fed officials have made it clear that current interest rates of 1.50 percent are unusually, and unnecessarily, low and need to be raised. Taking the hint, the market has priced in a 25 basis point move on Tuesday to 1.75 percent.
"The outcome is completely discounted," said Chris Rupkey, senior financial economist at BTM. The market also puts a 100 percent chance of a further move to 2.00 percent by year-end, but there is much is uncertainty whether it will come at the November or December meeting.
Investors are hoping the Fed will make its intentions a little clearer in its post-meeting statement, though the central bank dislikes locking itself into any one path.
Bond bulls are betting the Fed will soften its policy line by acknowledging the recent moderation of inflationary pressures and the still-patchy performance of the economy.
Others, however, thought the data has been strong enough for the Fed to stick to its optimistic line.
"The Fed's press release could be written a little more bullishly for the economy than last time," said Rupkey, perhaps using some version of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's assertion earlier this month that the economy had regained traction.
Such a formula would likely trigger a wave of profit-taking in bonds given the recent run-up in prices. With so much riding on the Fed's words, Treasury trading was understandably tense.
Yields on two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) hovered around 2.48 percent while those on the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged down to 3.31 percent from 3.33 percent late Friday.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) added 8/32 in price, lowering its yield to 4.89 percent from 4.91 percent.
The yield curve extended its recent flattening trend, with the gap between two and 10-year yields narrowing to 162 basis points -- the smallest spread since Sept. 2001.
The decline in longer-term yields has owed much to speculation the Fed will soon pause in its tightening campaign. At least one U.S. bank last week told clients the Fed intended to reach 2.0 percent and then go on indefinite hold, a long way short of traditional estimates of neutral policy which encompass a broad range of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent.
"The argument is making the rounds that the Fed may well stop at 1.75 percent or 2.00 percent, heralding a new era of super-low "neutral" Fed funds rates," analysts at Lehman Brothers noted in their weekly outlook, adding they disagree.
If this was true, then long-term yields could fall yet further given the gap between 10-year yields and the 3-month T-bill has averaged about 150 basis points since the beginning of 1960, implying a 3.50 percent yield should 2.00 percent come to be viewed as the steady-state level of fed funds.
"The flaw with this line of reasoning is that dramatic revisions to longer-term Fed fund expectations do not occur in a month," argued Lehman's analysts.
They noted Fed fund futures and Eurodollars were still pricing in rates of 3.0 percent by the end of next year.
"Instead, the flattening rally appears to have been driven by either further short covering or the general decline in risk premium best reflected in the tightening spreads in lower-credit quality sectors and, particularly, emerging markets," said Lehman.
salvina
Forumer attivo
ditropan ha scritto:
Caro Andrea, i fatti sono due ....1) stanno pompando alla grande
e si ricopriranno ..lasciando con le mani bruciate i fautori del lungo...
2)oppure vogliono portarlo ai massimi facendo ricoprire i corti perenni
alla disperata...
è da due mesi che non ritraccia ...io me ne sto fuori e vada a farsi un giro....è troppo infimo e in questo periodo da qualsiasi parte lo tocco...mi scotto....sta di fatto che per adesso per i miei gusti è intrattabile----
ditropan
Forumer storico
salvina ha scritto:ditropan ha scritto:
Caro Andrea, i fatti sono due ....1) stanno pompando alla grande
e si ricopriranno ..lasciando con le mani bruciate i fautori del lungo...
2)oppure vogliono portarlo ai massimi facendo ricoprire i corti perenni
alla disperata...
è da due mesi che non ritraccia ...io me ne sto fuori e vada a farsi un giro....è troppo infimo e in questo periodo da qualsiasi parte lo tocco...mi scotto....sta di fatto che per adesso per i miei gusti è intrattabile----
ciao tesoro
... io ho ferme le posizioni in essere e per ora non lo ca@o nemmeno di striscio !!!... domani sapremo. ;-)