Sintomatica l'affermazione del giornalista che osserva nella parte sottolineata come normalmente il prezzo del petrolio alto è negativo per i bonds perchè fa da propellente all'inflazione, ma questi non son tempi normali e i bond's traders son invece attenti a quello che può comportare invece sui consumi in calo e la crescita dell'economia
US Treasuries prices up, inflation data on agenda
By Dhara Ranasinghe
LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices rose on
Friday, boosted by sharp gains in Japan's debt market after
surprisingly weak Japanese economic growth data, while the focus
turned to U.S. producer price inflation figures.
The producer price data at 1230 GMT will provide the first
snapshot of inflation in July and possibly clues to next week's
key data on consumer price inflation. International trade data
for June are out at the same time, while the University of
Michigan's August sentiment survey is released at 1345 GMT.
For the time being, the Treasury market was taking its cue
from events elsewhere. Japanese government bond prices hit
two-month peaks after news Japan's economy grew a real 0.4
percent in the second quarter, well below market expectations of
1.0 percent growth.
"Japan's GDP is having a major impact this morning because
people had hoped the recovery in Japan had some legs. The firm
oil price and ropey equities after the H-P results are boosting
all government bonds in Europe," said Marc Ostwald, bond broker
at Monument Securities in London.
At 0910 GMT, the two-year notes price was up 2/32, with a
yield of 2.47 percent <US2YT=RR> compared to 2.49 percent in
late New York trade on Thursday. The 10-year note <US10YT=RR>
rose 7/32 in price, pushing the yield to 4.25 percent, while the
September 10-year T-Note future <TYU4> was up 3/32 at 112-17/32.
U.S. stocks <.IXIC> tumbled overnight after disappointing
earnings and outlook from PC maker Hewlett-Packard Co. <HPQ.N>.
Oil prices hovered near Thursday's record high of $45.75
<CLc1> amid worries of fresh sabotage on Iraq's oil industry and
possible supply disruptions in Venezuela, where President Hugo
Chavez faces a referendum on his rule.
Normally, high oil prices are negative for debt because they
fuel inflation, but at the moment investors are focusing on the
impact red-hot oil prices will have on crimping consumption and
economic growth and this is positive for bonds.
PPI FOCUS
Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline Producer
Price Index, or PPI, to have risen by 0.2 percent in July, after
falling by 0.3 percent in June, due largely to the rebound in
energy prices last month.
The core PPI, which excludes energy and food prices, is
expected to have risen by just 0.1 percent, compared with a gain
of 0.2 percent in June.
"Any signals that the strength seen at the start of the year
will not be sustained will reinforce expectations for a measured
rise in interest rates," said Prebon Marshall Yamane global
economist Lena Komileva.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index is
expected to rise to 97.5 in August from 96.7 in late July.
"There is a focus on the confidence data because it is a
forward-looking indicator for August and markets want to know
whether recent economic softness has continued," said Komileva.
Analysts said global security worries as the Olympic Games
start in Athens could support safe-haven debt. Five-year yields
<US5YT=RR> were at 3.45 percent, while the 30-year debt yield
<US30YT=RR> was at 5.04 percent.
Treasuries outperformed Bunds with the 10-year yield gap
four basis points narrower at 23 basis points. The 10-year
dollar swap spread stood at 46-1/4 basis points, compared with
47-3/4 basis points in the U.S. on Thursday.
((Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe, Editing by Will Hardie;
Reuters Messaging:
[email protected], +44
207542 6745))
--------------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 909 GMT ------------------
Futures continuous contract basis
30-year T-Bond 110-28/32 (+04/32)
10-year T-Note 112-17/32 (+03/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills 1.42 (unch) 1.449
Six-month bills 1.68 (-0.02) 1.723
Two-year notes 100-16/32 (+01/32) 2.483
Five-year notes 100-07/32 (+05/32) 3.450
10-year notes 100-01/32 (+07/32) 4.248
30-year bonds 104-28/32 (+05/32) 5.041
era meglio se non vedevo
ciao vado ora
