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US Treasuries surrender gains, buyers on strike
Tue Mar 15, 2005 12:43 PM ET
(Recasts, updates prices)
By Wayne Cole
NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries succumbed to fresh speculative selling on Tuesday as early short-covering ran its course and a mixed bag of data did nothing to shift the focus from inflation and future rate hikes.
By the midsession, the 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) had shed all its early gains to turn 2/32 lower in price with one sizable seller doing much of the damage. Its yield rose to 4.52 percent from 4.51 percent late on Monday and a morning low of 4.47 percent.
Traders also reported two-way flows related to hedging a rush of corporate issuance and more buying of Treasury put options as a bet that prices will fall yet further.
"Once the short-covering petered out, there were just no other buyers around," said a trader at a U.S. primary dealer. "That seemed to encourage the bears to sell again and retaking 4.50 (percent) so easily only egged them on.
"The majority still believe yields should be higher to better cover the risk of rising inflation and a lot more rate hikes from the Fed, and they're dominating," he added.
The trader noted the latest JPMorgan client survey showed just how bearish the market mood turned last week as short positions expanded 10 percentage points to 57 percent, the highest level ever.
Indeed, short-dated debt was pressured by a robust report on February U.S. retail sales, which supported expectations for economic growth of 4.0 percent or more this quarter and for further hikes from the Federal Reserve.
Yields on the two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) nudged up to 3.74 percent from 3.73 percent, while those on the five-year note (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were stuck at 4.19 percent.
The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) reversed its early gains fall 8/32, lifting yields to 4.80 percent from 4.78 percent.
Earlier, Treasuries got a modest boost from figures showing foreign net net inflows to the United States were a huge $91.5 billion in January, the second-highest on record. That helped counter concerns the United States might have trouble attracting enough foreign money to fund its trade deficit.
However, it turned out much of the flows into Treasuries were speculative and liable to be reversed quickly, while Asian investors like Japan were net sellers.
The morning's economic data showed retail sales excluding the volatile auto sector rose only 0.4 percent, half the expected gain. However, January's ex-auto sales were revised up to 1.0 percent from 0.6 percent, so the two months' average was in line with forecasts.
The data generally supported expectations the economy would grow above trend again this quarter, using up a little more excess capacity. This, coupled with a tightening labor market, surging commodity prices and a soft dollar, has had investors worried about an acceleration in inflation.
This in turn has forced the market to raise the risk of a more aggressive tightening from the Fed. Fund futures (0#ED:: Quote, Profile, Research) now price in rates of at least 3.75 percent by year-end and a 50-50 chance of 4 percent.
"Retail sales are losing a bit of momentum from the fourth quarter, but they remain stronger than in the second or third quarters, and are certainly strong enough to allow further Fed tightening," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.
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