oggi il mercato è in mano agli istituzionali ovvero grosse banche d'affari, si vede da come scalano gradualmente in alto e ogni tanto danno un affondo deciso per far calare qualche pesce nella rete
US Treasuries creep up in technically-led trade
(Updates prices, adds comments; changes dateline, previous NEW YORK)
By Ros Krasny
CHICAGO, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury prices ticked higher on Monday in a continuation of Friday's rally that followed weak payrolls data, and on technical buying spilling over from futures.
The payrolls report, which showed March job creation was half of Wall Street's forecast, has put a bid into the bond market for now, dealers said.
Still, inflation worries are not far from the surface and pressure in overnight trading resulted from hawkish comments by St. Louis Fed President William Poole that the Fed must ensure it confronts the risk of higher inflation.
The 10-year note <US10YT=RR> rose 7/32 in price for a yield of 4.42 percent, down from 4.45 percent late Friday. The next target for the benchmark yield is Friday's low near 4.40 percent and then 4.32 percent.
Five-year Treasury notes <US5YT=RR> were up 5/32 at a yield of 4.09 percent, down from 4.12 percent. The 30-year bond <US30YT=RR> rose 7/32 to yield 4.71 percent, down from 4.72 percent. Two-year notes <US2YT=RR> were at 3.70 percent, down from 3.72 percent.
The two-/10-year yield spread was a fraction tighter at 71 basis points and many dealers expect more flattening given the Fed's current policy path.
"The faster the Fed hikes, the faster the curve will flatten," John Blumenfeld, interest rate strategist with BNP Paribas, said in a research note.
No major reports are on the schedule for this week, leaving traders to focus on three scheduled appearances by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan for direction.
Greenspan's first outing will be Tuesday when he speaks about energy, via satellite, at a petrochemical conference.
Bond dealers are also watching the stock market and energy prices. The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> fell to a five-month low on Monday while crude oil futures made another record high.
Dealers said the response to Poole's comments was muted because the hawkish tone was broadly in character.
"The risk of higher inflation over the next six months or so seems clearly greater than the risk that inflation will fall below a desirable range," Poole said at a conference at Princeton University.
Poole is not a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2005.
Short-term rate futures prices have risen in the past week, trimming the chances of a 50 basis point rate increase at the May 3 Federal Open Market Committee meeting. A 25 basis point rate increase is fully priced.
Treasury futures built on last week's short-covering momentum, pushing some buying into the cash market.
Friday's commitments of traders report showed speculators were heavily short in longer-maturity futures as of March 29, when the data was compiled.
June 30-year bonds rose to 112-07/32, close to chart resistance at 112-10/32.
"As long as this area, tested on Friday, loosely holds as resistance, current bearish weekly momentum will remain intact and the recent trend of lower prices will be expected to resume," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research.
?
, mi ero messo sul bund a 119 per vendere ancora, max 118.98 ... aspettiamo a capire che vogliono combinare.....vado a preparare la cena - a domani
io ho risolto suddivendo 50% posizione e 50% giretti di 2-3 cents , se vai a vedere lo spread K05-N05 si sta chiudendo sempre più , forse conviene tenere gli short sino all'ultimo , si sa mai va in contango
