BUND, T-BRONX, T-NOTE ... e compagnia bella (V.M. 78 Anni)
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Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
alpin vai a cagher tu e i 153,5 
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
dan ormai disperso, ma tanto non gliene frega na cippa a nessuno :smile:
:smile: 
ditropan
Forumer storico
... orca pupazza !!! Altro che baclofen ... quà a farmi skiattare sono gli omoni neri del NYMEX che non vogliono farmi passare l'ordine su gasolio e benzina 
IL gas poi ha una forza immonda, riesce a resistere più di mastrolindo !!!
... comunque 4 mini-crude me li sono intascati a 52,5$ ... ed altri 10100$ lordi di gain vanno in cascina e chiusi in cassaforte.
IL gas poi ha una forza immonda, riesce a resistere più di mastrolindo !!!
... comunque 4 mini-crude me li sono intascati a 52,5$ ... ed altri 10100$ lordi di gain vanno in cascina e chiusi in cassaforte.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Taylor On US Markets & Gold
Roach, Hoye and Russell All Point Toward Deflationary Pressures
My favorite mainstream economist is Stephen Roach. Why? Because I believe he unlike most all other main stream economists, has somehow maintained his objectivity which is very unusual given the pressures placed on Wall Street employees to keeps selling stocks whether their clients should buy the m or not. We can only hope that the managerial changes going on with Stephen's employer, Morgan Stanly does not end up muzzling this great truth seeker.
So, when Stephen Roach speaks, I listen. I have not talked as much recently about his views as I did several months back, but on March 28th, I felt he made some very important macro-economic points that are very important to note. I will summarize them as follows:
By implementing a currency peg, the People's Bank of China has virtually abdicated its control over its emerging financial system to America's Federal Reserve.
The FED is now in a tightening mode because of fears of: a.) rising inflation, b.) To raise interest rates so that our exploding current account deficit, which rose to 6.3% of GDP in 2004 can be funded. In fact we now need capital flows of $2.9 billion per day! And c.) To curtail asset inflation most notably now in the housing sector.
With rising interest rates and declining asset prices, U.S. consumers will need to save from their incomes rather than from windfall asset price increases.
Saving from incomes by consumers means that China's economy is likely to get hit hard from lower demand from Americans. This Roach suggests is at least partly why the Chinese are not implementing a tighter monetary policy of their own. They fear to do so along with a tighter Fed policy could result in overkill.
Further Fed tightening, as timid as it has been and still very much behind the curve, could well cause disruptions among the carry trade as the yield curve continues to flatten. And it may well cause the American consumer to finally peter out.
Remember that about 70% of the American economy is driven by consumer demand. So any significant increase in savings from income by Americans is not only likely to cause a downturn in the Chinese economy but also here in America as well.
Bob Hoye, Institutional Advisor's Levente Mady said the following in his March 28th "Bond Works" publication
"Well Fed Funds are scheduled to hit 3% in a little over a month from now and I just can't ignore the signal that the flattening yield curve is screaming at me: economic growth will be coming to a screeching halt."
Then on that same day, Richard Russell said the following:
" All true bear market bottoms have one thin in common. They are accompanied by fear. We didn't see fear at the 2002 lows. And, in fact, we haven't seen fear since. There's something BIG coming up in the markets and in the US economy during the months ahead. If you look at the market action, if you listen to 'the language of the market,' you can almost taste it.
Here's what I am seeing in my market studies --
Market severely oversold and overdue for a "bounce."
My PTI, after hitting a high of 5605 on March 9, has now declined to where it is sitting right on its moving average. Not good.
Volume tends to contract when the market rallies, and volume tends to expand when the market declines. That's bearish.
The advance-decline ratio (operating companies only) topped out on February 25, and it has been sinking lower since.
The advance-decline ratio (all NYSE stocks) topped out on March 7 and is now down by 11,484 issues. There's almost no way that, if the Dow rallies to a new high, the advance-decline ratio can confirm.
The advance-decline line for the 30 D-J Industrials stocks has topped out and it now hitting its lowest level since last September.
My 5-day high-low differentials turned negative on March 22. That's clear technical deterioration.
The combined high-low figures for all three stock exchanges have now turned negative -- meaning that we're now seeing more lows than highs. Negative.
The majority of advisors remain bullish -- confidence continues to remain high, which indicates that in general, investors are not positioned for any real trouble.
The VIX, although now in a rising trend, remains in low territory in the 13s. Complacency still reigns.
Investor's Business Daily's Mutual Fund Index is down almost 3% for the year so far. This is a negative in the big picture. The retail public is losing.
The McClellan Summation Index has dropped below 1000. Not all market declines become major declines when this Index is below 1000 -- but almost all major market declines have occurred at a time when the Summation Index was below 1000.
Lowry's Buying Power Index has dropped to its lowest level since its November 18 high. And Lowry's Selling Pressure Index has risen to its highest level since it November 17 low. In fact, Selling Pressure is now higher than it was when the market hit its low in January. This is clear technical deterioration and suggests that the January lows will not hold.
My Big Money Breadth Index was at 726 on Thursday -- it has dropped to its lowest level since last August 13.
Joe Granville's OBV figures have broken down badly. I n fact, Joe states that his various OBV statistics closely match the figures seen in 1929 just before the crash. Incredibly, Joe has researched his figures on a daily basis back to the late-1920's.
The December 2004 low for the Dow was 10440.58. That low was violated in January, which was bearish action. However, the Dow then rallied to a new high on March 7 -- and then turned down again. The January Dow low was 10368.61. I f the Dow now breaks below the January low, I would have to take such action to be extremely bearish -- it would represent a series of lower lows in the Dow -- all having occurred during the first quarter.
After the greatest flooding of the system with liquidity in US history, and after keeping short rates below the inflation rate for two-and-a-half years (short rates continue to be below the inflation rate), the major stock averages have still not been able to better their preceding bull market highs. Now market action is beginning to deteriorate. This is not a pretty picture.
So far, the deterioration in the market has been slow and subtle -- and to the average person almost imperceptible. There is almost no talk of MAJOR trouble ahead, or of a resumption of the bear market. Nevertheless, that's what I believe is in the cards.
Next, a few fundamentals. To battle the bear, the Greenspan Fed pushed short rates down to a generational low of 1 percent. Then, in June 2004 the Fed began to reverse the process. It started by raising short rates at a "measured" pace with each increase a mini .25 percent. There have been seven "mini-increases" up to now and yet the short rate is still below the inflation rate.
Why such extreme timidity on the part of the Greenspan Fed? My answer -- it's because Greenspan knows that it would not take much to topple the US economy and send it into deflation. This has been the case with Japan -- time after time (see item on Japanese deflation below).
Question -- Why has Greenspan refused to concede that housing is in a bubble? Why has Greenspan avoided saying that price inflation has been "taking off" on the upside?
Answer -- Because if Greenspan did admit to inflation, he would also have to justify his timid mini-rate increases and his inflationary boosting of the money supply. Greenspan knows that only his continuing inflationary efforts have been holding back the forces of deflation. He knows that only the ocean of liquidity that he has created has kept the longer-maturity notes and bonds from plunging to lower levels with accompanying higher yields.
Greenspan's great secret is that he is continuing to inflate -- while at the same time pretending that he is "fighting inflation" with his ridiculous quarter-point increases in short rates.
Greenspan's greatest fear is that long rates will suddenly make up for lost time -- and surge.
Greenspan's second greatest fear is a plunge in the dollar, which would send long rates higher.
Greenspan's third greatest fear is deflation, coming from whatever source, but nevertheless coming (as per Japan).
Deflation/Inflation are two sides of the same coin. What I mean by that is that they are two different symptoms caused by the same disease, namely the excessive creation of fiat money. As Bob Hoye says, what we call money isn't really money at all. It's credit. And "credit" is of course just one side of a two sided coin, the other side of the coin being "debt."
So as we have been arguing all along and as my friend Ian Gordon has repeatedly pointed out, the more credit money you create, the more debt you have also created and it is the debt that will ultimately suck us into a deflationary black hole that no politician or central banker will be able to elude.
Long Term Gold Bull Market Remains Very Much In Place
Although we have had our ups and downs in the gold share markets, what the chart above suggests is that the bull market in gold bullion is very much alive, having broken through the 18+ year bear market that began when gold reached $850 per ounce in January 1980. Note the values above do not reveal the absolute peak of $850/oz for gold because what is plotted above is a monthly average gold price. That averaged peaked for the month of September 1979 ant at $670.
Gold Doesn't Depend on the Dollar. The Dollar Depends on Gold!
What everyone is going to be shocked to find out is that gold and the dollar will rise together as the Kondratieff winter gets underway. That is when the real gold bull market will begin and it will begin because confidence in debt money will begin to mount. And a symptom of declining confidence in "debt money" will be widening credit spreads. Bob Hoye does quite a lot of work analyzing this matter and he suggests that another symptom then will also be a steepening of the yield curve as investors flee out of the long end of the yield curve into short term lenders in order to gain liquidity. We will watch that carefully. We note that during the 1930's, early in that decade of deflation, treasury interest rates shot up. Then they slowly declined until about 1940. A rising interest rate could be in fact the straw that breaks the back of inflation which would then cause the establishment to lose control.
*******************
April 10, 2005
Roach, Hoye and Russell All Point Toward Deflationary Pressures
My favorite mainstream economist is Stephen Roach. Why? Because I believe he unlike most all other main stream economists, has somehow maintained his objectivity which is very unusual given the pressures placed on Wall Street employees to keeps selling stocks whether their clients should buy the m or not. We can only hope that the managerial changes going on with Stephen's employer, Morgan Stanly does not end up muzzling this great truth seeker.
So, when Stephen Roach speaks, I listen. I have not talked as much recently about his views as I did several months back, but on March 28th, I felt he made some very important macro-economic points that are very important to note. I will summarize them as follows:
By implementing a currency peg, the People's Bank of China has virtually abdicated its control over its emerging financial system to America's Federal Reserve.
The FED is now in a tightening mode because of fears of: a.) rising inflation, b.) To raise interest rates so that our exploding current account deficit, which rose to 6.3% of GDP in 2004 can be funded. In fact we now need capital flows of $2.9 billion per day! And c.) To curtail asset inflation most notably now in the housing sector.
With rising interest rates and declining asset prices, U.S. consumers will need to save from their incomes rather than from windfall asset price increases.
Saving from incomes by consumers means that China's economy is likely to get hit hard from lower demand from Americans. This Roach suggests is at least partly why the Chinese are not implementing a tighter monetary policy of their own. They fear to do so along with a tighter Fed policy could result in overkill.
Further Fed tightening, as timid as it has been and still very much behind the curve, could well cause disruptions among the carry trade as the yield curve continues to flatten. And it may well cause the American consumer to finally peter out.
Remember that about 70% of the American economy is driven by consumer demand. So any significant increase in savings from income by Americans is not only likely to cause a downturn in the Chinese economy but also here in America as well.
Bob Hoye, Institutional Advisor's Levente Mady said the following in his March 28th "Bond Works" publication
"Well Fed Funds are scheduled to hit 3% in a little over a month from now and I just can't ignore the signal that the flattening yield curve is screaming at me: economic growth will be coming to a screeching halt."
Then on that same day, Richard Russell said the following:
" All true bear market bottoms have one thin in common. They are accompanied by fear. We didn't see fear at the 2002 lows. And, in fact, we haven't seen fear since. There's something BIG coming up in the markets and in the US economy during the months ahead. If you look at the market action, if you listen to 'the language of the market,' you can almost taste it.
Here's what I am seeing in my market studies --
Market severely oversold and overdue for a "bounce."
My PTI, after hitting a high of 5605 on March 9, has now declined to where it is sitting right on its moving average. Not good.
Volume tends to contract when the market rallies, and volume tends to expand when the market declines. That's bearish.
The advance-decline ratio (operating companies only) topped out on February 25, and it has been sinking lower since.
The advance-decline ratio (all NYSE stocks) topped out on March 7 and is now down by 11,484 issues. There's almost no way that, if the Dow rallies to a new high, the advance-decline ratio can confirm.
The advance-decline line for the 30 D-J Industrials stocks has topped out and it now hitting its lowest level since last September.
My 5-day high-low differentials turned negative on March 22. That's clear technical deterioration.
The combined high-low figures for all three stock exchanges have now turned negative -- meaning that we're now seeing more lows than highs. Negative.
The majority of advisors remain bullish -- confidence continues to remain high, which indicates that in general, investors are not positioned for any real trouble.
The VIX, although now in a rising trend, remains in low territory in the 13s. Complacency still reigns.
Investor's Business Daily's Mutual Fund Index is down almost 3% for the year so far. This is a negative in the big picture. The retail public is losing.
The McClellan Summation Index has dropped below 1000. Not all market declines become major declines when this Index is below 1000 -- but almost all major market declines have occurred at a time when the Summation Index was below 1000.
Lowry's Buying Power Index has dropped to its lowest level since its November 18 high. And Lowry's Selling Pressure Index has risen to its highest level since it November 17 low. In fact, Selling Pressure is now higher than it was when the market hit its low in January. This is clear technical deterioration and suggests that the January lows will not hold.
My Big Money Breadth Index was at 726 on Thursday -- it has dropped to its lowest level since last August 13.
Joe Granville's OBV figures have broken down badly. I n fact, Joe states that his various OBV statistics closely match the figures seen in 1929 just before the crash. Incredibly, Joe has researched his figures on a daily basis back to the late-1920's.
The December 2004 low for the Dow was 10440.58. That low was violated in January, which was bearish action. However, the Dow then rallied to a new high on March 7 -- and then turned down again. The January Dow low was 10368.61. I f the Dow now breaks below the January low, I would have to take such action to be extremely bearish -- it would represent a series of lower lows in the Dow -- all having occurred during the first quarter.
After the greatest flooding of the system with liquidity in US history, and after keeping short rates below the inflation rate for two-and-a-half years (short rates continue to be below the inflation rate), the major stock averages have still not been able to better their preceding bull market highs. Now market action is beginning to deteriorate. This is not a pretty picture.
So far, the deterioration in the market has been slow and subtle -- and to the average person almost imperceptible. There is almost no talk of MAJOR trouble ahead, or of a resumption of the bear market. Nevertheless, that's what I believe is in the cards.
Next, a few fundamentals. To battle the bear, the Greenspan Fed pushed short rates down to a generational low of 1 percent. Then, in June 2004 the Fed began to reverse the process. It started by raising short rates at a "measured" pace with each increase a mini .25 percent. There have been seven "mini-increases" up to now and yet the short rate is still below the inflation rate.
Why such extreme timidity on the part of the Greenspan Fed? My answer -- it's because Greenspan knows that it would not take much to topple the US economy and send it into deflation. This has been the case with Japan -- time after time (see item on Japanese deflation below).
Question -- Why has Greenspan refused to concede that housing is in a bubble? Why has Greenspan avoided saying that price inflation has been "taking off" on the upside?
Answer -- Because if Greenspan did admit to inflation, he would also have to justify his timid mini-rate increases and his inflationary boosting of the money supply. Greenspan knows that only his continuing inflationary efforts have been holding back the forces of deflation. He knows that only the ocean of liquidity that he has created has kept the longer-maturity notes and bonds from plunging to lower levels with accompanying higher yields.
Greenspan's great secret is that he is continuing to inflate -- while at the same time pretending that he is "fighting inflation" with his ridiculous quarter-point increases in short rates.
Greenspan's greatest fear is that long rates will suddenly make up for lost time -- and surge.
Greenspan's second greatest fear is a plunge in the dollar, which would send long rates higher.
Greenspan's third greatest fear is deflation, coming from whatever source, but nevertheless coming (as per Japan).
Deflation/Inflation are two sides of the same coin. What I mean by that is that they are two different symptoms caused by the same disease, namely the excessive creation of fiat money. As Bob Hoye says, what we call money isn't really money at all. It's credit. And "credit" is of course just one side of a two sided coin, the other side of the coin being "debt."
So as we have been arguing all along and as my friend Ian Gordon has repeatedly pointed out, the more credit money you create, the more debt you have also created and it is the debt that will ultimately suck us into a deflationary black hole that no politician or central banker will be able to elude.
Long Term Gold Bull Market Remains Very Much In Place
Although we have had our ups and downs in the gold share markets, what the chart above suggests is that the bull market in gold bullion is very much alive, having broken through the 18+ year bear market that began when gold reached $850 per ounce in January 1980. Note the values above do not reveal the absolute peak of $850/oz for gold because what is plotted above is a monthly average gold price. That averaged peaked for the month of September 1979 ant at $670.
Gold Doesn't Depend on the Dollar. The Dollar Depends on Gold!
What everyone is going to be shocked to find out is that gold and the dollar will rise together as the Kondratieff winter gets underway. That is when the real gold bull market will begin and it will begin because confidence in debt money will begin to mount. And a symptom of declining confidence in "debt money" will be widening credit spreads. Bob Hoye does quite a lot of work analyzing this matter and he suggests that another symptom then will also be a steepening of the yield curve as investors flee out of the long end of the yield curve into short term lenders in order to gain liquidity. We will watch that carefully. We note that during the 1930's, early in that decade of deflation, treasury interest rates shot up. Then they slowly declined until about 1940. A rising interest rate could be in fact the straw that breaks the back of inflation which would then cause the establishment to lose control.
*******************
April 10, 2005
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ditropan ha scritto:Fleursdumal ha scritto:alpin vai a cagher tu e i 153,5
che è successo? ... homo immondo !!!
che prima di fare quel prezzo
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Sospetto confermato...
Treasuries boosted by short-covering on Ford woes
Mon Apr 11, 2005 12:51 PM ET
(Recasts; adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices climbed on Monday as renewed troubles at Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) >, the second-largest U.S. carmaker, rekindled a bid for safe-haven government debt.
A profit warning from Ford last week was quickly followed by a credit downgrade from Fitch Ratings, which in turn helped channel funds into Treasury bonds.
Bond bulls were looking to push benchmark yields (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) toward -- and possibly beyond -- a recent low of 4.42 percent. For now, 10-year Treasury notes were up 10/32 in price for a yield of 4.43 percent from 4.48 percent on Friday, helped by traders scrambling to cover short positions.
"There's a huge camp out there that believes the economy is slowing down, and the Ford thing urges them on," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer. "I don't really buy it, so I'm kind of baffled by this move."
While high gasoline prices lurk as a possible trigger for a slowdown in economic growth, most Wall Street analysts still hold an optimistic view of the U.S. expansion.
But with chain store sales already showing signs of weakening this year, investors are keen to get a reading on March retail sales for a better sense of the national consumption outlook.
The tough conditions at U.S. automakers are another source of concern for economic analysts. Ford slashed its 2005 earnings forecast on Friday and warned it no longer expects to reach its 2006 profit goal.
Ford faces many of the same problems as rival General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , which warned last month that it will post its weakest first-quarter earnings since 1992, and profits this year could miss forecasts by as much as 80 percent.
Most investors do not see the car sector's woes as likely to spread to the rest of the economy, but ominously high oil prices have helped prevent a wholesale pullout of Treasuries despite the Federal Reserve's continued commitment to lift interest rates.
Crude oil futures (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) have slid beneath $53 a barrel in recent sessions, but many observers expected a renewed pick-up.
Such a possibility helped the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rally 23/32 for a yield of 4.72 percent, down from 4.85 percent on Friday.
With the long end outperforming, the yield curve flattened again. The spread between two- and 10-year notes narrowed to 70 basis points from 73 on Friday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 3/32 for a yield of 4.12 percent, while two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) yields were steady at 3.75 percent.
Traders reported some buying from European accounts as investors appeared to reverse a recent propensity to favor Bunds over Treasuries.
The session's only data release was a manufacturing index from the Kansas City Fed, whose rise barely caused a flinch in the market.
Instead, investors were awaiting trade figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday for further clarity on the economic outlook.
Bond dealers were also facing another bout of issuance this week. The Treasury Department said on Monday it would sell $15 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday and $9 billion in 10-year TIPS on Thursday.
Treasuries boosted by short-covering on Ford woes
Mon Apr 11, 2005 12:51 PM ET
(Recasts; adds comments, updates prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - Treasury debt prices climbed on Monday as renewed troubles at Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) >, the second-largest U.S. carmaker, rekindled a bid for safe-haven government debt.
A profit warning from Ford last week was quickly followed by a credit downgrade from Fitch Ratings, which in turn helped channel funds into Treasury bonds.
Bond bulls were looking to push benchmark yields (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) toward -- and possibly beyond -- a recent low of 4.42 percent. For now, 10-year Treasury notes were up 10/32 in price for a yield of 4.43 percent from 4.48 percent on Friday, helped by traders scrambling to cover short positions.
"There's a huge camp out there that believes the economy is slowing down, and the Ford thing urges them on," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer. "I don't really buy it, so I'm kind of baffled by this move."
While high gasoline prices lurk as a possible trigger for a slowdown in economic growth, most Wall Street analysts still hold an optimistic view of the U.S. expansion.
But with chain store sales already showing signs of weakening this year, investors are keen to get a reading on March retail sales for a better sense of the national consumption outlook.
The tough conditions at U.S. automakers are another source of concern for economic analysts. Ford slashed its 2005 earnings forecast on Friday and warned it no longer expects to reach its 2006 profit goal.
Ford faces many of the same problems as rival General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , which warned last month that it will post its weakest first-quarter earnings since 1992, and profits this year could miss forecasts by as much as 80 percent.
Most investors do not see the car sector's woes as likely to spread to the rest of the economy, but ominously high oil prices have helped prevent a wholesale pullout of Treasuries despite the Federal Reserve's continued commitment to lift interest rates.
Crude oil futures (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) have slid beneath $53 a barrel in recent sessions, but many observers expected a renewed pick-up.
Such a possibility helped the 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) rally 23/32 for a yield of 4.72 percent, down from 4.85 percent on Friday.
With the long end outperforming, the yield curve flattened again. The spread between two- and 10-year notes narrowed to 70 basis points from 73 on Friday.
Five-year notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 3/32 for a yield of 4.12 percent, while two-year note (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) yields were steady at 3.75 percent.
Traders reported some buying from European accounts as investors appeared to reverse a recent propensity to favor Bunds over Treasuries.
The session's only data release was a manufacturing index from the Kansas City Fed, whose rise barely caused a flinch in the market.
Instead, investors were awaiting trade figures on Tuesday and retail sales on Wednesday for further clarity on the economic outlook.
Bond dealers were also facing another bout of issuance this week. The Treasury Department said on Monday it would sell $15 billion of five-year notes on Wednesday and $9 billion in 10-year TIPS on Thursday.
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