BUND, T-BRONX, T-NOTE ... e compagnia bella (V.M. 78 Anni)

riccccc dato che sarà durissima sopportati la settimana prossima, ti obbligo a pensare già da adesso a venderti sui tuoi short almeno una put118 o 118,5 giugno :) :P :)

Euro debt-2 yr yields plumb 4-month lows as equities fall

By George Matlock

LONDON, April 15 (Reuters) - Two-year euro zone government bond yields fell to 4-month lows, and 10-year yields hit 2-month troughs on Friday as a sell-off in corporate bond and equity markets triggered demand for safe-haven debt.

Euro zone bourses <.STOXX50E> fell 1.7 percent after IBM, Samsung Electronics and Sony Ericsson reported profits that were weaker than expected.

Tokyo stocks closed at a 10-week low, while Wall Street shares opened lower <.DJI>.

Corporate bond markets also took a battering from the news on the equities front and yield spreads surged to their widest level in about 18 months. Government bonds benefited from woes in both the corporate bond and equity markets and Bund futures rose to within striking distance of contract highs.

"There is clearly a flight to quality, with corporate bonds hit by a weaker outlook," said Williams de Broe fixed income analyst Elisabeth Afseth. "There has been a sentiment change with regards to economic growth as well and a view that growth will be weaker is also weighing on stocks."

At 1529 GMT, the interest rate sensitive two-year Schatz yield <EU2YT=RR> was down 5.5 basis points (bps) at 2.342 percent, holding close to lows hit earlier at 2.326 percent. The benchmark 10-year Bund yield <EU10YT=RR> fell 4.1 bps to 3.49 percent. Earlier, it fell as far as 3.471 percent.

The September Euribor future <FEIU5>, a market barometer of euro zone rate expectations, was up 2.5 bps at 97.790, having touched a contract high of 97.810.

Money markets have racked up strong gains in recent weeks as traders scaled back expectations for higher interest rates against a backdrop of sluggish economic growth and generally firm oil prices. The market now discounts less than a 35 percent chance of a quarter point hike by September.

European Central Bank Vice President Lucas Papademos said weak confidence in the euro zone has damaged short-term economic performance. The comments had little immediate impact on bond prices.

The June Bund future <FGBLM5> was up 28 ticks at 119.81. It hit a 9-week high of 119.99 -- within sight of contract highs just above 120.

"Equities are the reason for the rally," said one bond trader in Germany. "The market has pushed through technical levels and this has triggered some short covering."

Despite the rally in euro zone debt, Bunds continued their underperformance against the even firmer U.S. Treasury market.

Euro zone debt pared gains after weaker U.S. consumer sentiment data was not as poor as some investors had expected.

The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 88.7 in April, down from 92.6 in March and weaker than a 91.5 poll forecast.

"There appeared to be some moderate rumours of an even weaker number, even below the 80 level, in the market. But that has not been the case so there might be some disappointment but it shouldn't be enough to really push the market lower on the day," said John Davies, fixed income strategist at West LB in London.

Earlier, the market held relatively firm in the face of U.S. industrial output, Treasury sales data and the New York "Empire State" manufacturing survey.

The 10-year Treasury/Bund yield spread was at 87 bps, the narrowest level in almost a month. The spread was at 90 bps in late European trade on Thursday.

The yield gap between benchmark 10-year Greek government bonds and German Bunds widened to levels not seen in almost two years on Friday as Greek bonds came under pressure following a sell-off in corporate debt.

This has triggered a fresh wave of risk aversion, prompting investors to sell higher yielding government bonds like Greek and Italian debt for safe-haven German Bunds.

The 10-year euro swap spread was steady at 11 bps.
 
gastronomo ha scritto:
Illuminato profeta :lol: , non sai quanto già io mi trovi noioso a me stesso ... :rolleyes:

te la sei cercata :D :lol: :P

XXVIII - A SE STESSO

Or poserai per sempre,
Stanco mio cor. Perì l'inganno estremo,
Ch'eterno io mi credei. Perì. Ben sento,
In noi di cari inganni,
Non che la speme, il desiderio è spento.
Posa per sempre. Assai
Palpitasti. Non val cosa nessuna
I moti tuoi, nè di sospiri è degna
La terra. Amaro e noia
La vita, altro mai nulla; e fango è il mondo.
T'acqueta omai. Dispera
L'ultima volta. Al gener nostro il fato
Non donò che il morire. Omai disprezza
Te, la natura, il brutto
Poter che, ascoso, a comun danno impera,
E l'infinita vanità del tutto.
 
US Treasuries slip, watchful of inflation data
Fri Apr 15, 2005 12:54 PM ET
(Updates prices, adds comments; changes byline, dateline, previous NEW YORK)
By Ros Krasny

CHICAGO, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices reversed course to move lower on Friday after jumping earlier on the latest in a string of data to stir doubts about the economic outlook.

Dealers trimmed positions before the weekend and especially ahead of the one-two punch of two crucial inflation reports due next week.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 1/32 in price for a yield of 4.32 percent, up from 4.31 percent on Thursday. That yield briefly dipped to 4.28 percent on the morning's reports, the lowest since late February. The next technical barrier is at 4.25 percent.

Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 1/32 at a yield of 3.95 percent, up from 3.94 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 7/32 at 4.66 percent, down from 4.67 percent. Two-year notes (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) were at 3.56 percent, unchanged from Thursday.

The producer price index report will be released on Tuesday and its consumer counterpart on Wednesday.

Inflation jitters have been pushed into the wings over the past few days but higher than expected readings on prices could put inflation back on center stage.

"Although the economic numbers are coming out weak, the inflation numbers are coming out persistently strong," said a trader at a U.S. primary dealer.

"The Federal Reserve has basically gone out and said: 'We are more concerned about inflation,' and if inflation is not going to slow down then the Fed is not going to slow down," the trader said.

This week's series of weak data was capped by the the University of Michigan's April sentiment report, which fell to 88.7 from 92.6 in March, its fourth consecutive decline.

Still, whisper numbers on the consumer comfort index early on Friday had been as low as 85, triggering "buy the rumor, selling the fact" action.

The Michigan expectations index fell to a two-year low of 79.0 from 82.8 in March.

"Clearly this is not good news -- at its new level the expectations index is consistent with real consumption growth of about 2 1/2 percent," said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Earlier, the New York Fed's survey of the state's factory sector nosedived in April to 3.12 from 19.6.

"Growth in the manufacturing sector of the New York region continues, but just barely," said Drew Matus, financial markets economist at Lehman Bros.

March industrial production rose 0.3 percent as expected, but capacity utilization, at 79.4 percent, was not as strong as analysts had forecast.

Despite Friday's mild setback bond prices have found an underlying bid from this week's heavy stock market decline and from a flight-to-quality bias as corporate bonds spreads continue to widen.

A jump in rate futures on Friday indicate a small chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes as soon as June.

Futures now show a year-end Fed funds rate of under 3.75 percent, but some think that the central bank has no plans to stall its program of removing policy accommodation in bite-sized steps.

"As long as the inflation numbers stay strong and as long as there is still some growth we think they are going to stay on their moderate tightening course," said the trader at the primary dealer.

(Additional reporting by Chris Reese in New York)
 
'Azz... l'hai trovato ispirato il nostro amico :lol: :lol: :lol: - mi sto aperitivizzando un bel Vermentino di Gallura, poi da lunes torno a fare il piangina :eek: ......
 
Treasury yields hit 8-week lows, Fed pause pondered
Fri Apr 15, 2005 04:54 PM ET
(Recasts; updates comments, adds prices)
By Pedro Nicolaci da Costa

NEW YORK, April 15 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt yields slid to near two-month lows on Friday as more bad news on the economy bolstered hopes the Federal Reserve might eventually take a break from raising interest rates.

On Wall Street, a battered Dow Jones industrial average ended down nearly 2 percent on the day, carving out over five-month lows on soft earnings from IBM (IBM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , spurred even greater interest in government bonds.

A drop in consumer confidence and a weak manufacturing report only reinforced budding expectations for slower economic growth, which could give policymakers some breathing room in tightening monetary policy.

"If the economy slows dramatically in the second quarter and employment growth really falls away then the Fed may even consider pausing later this summer," said Elisabeth Denison, economist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein.

That prospect boosted the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (US10YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) 21/32 in price for a yield of 4.24 percent, down nearly a quarter-percentage point from just a week ago. Yields hit 4.23 percent at one point, their lowest since Feb. 24.

Five-year Treasury notes (US5YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 10/32 at a yield of 3.87 percent, down from 3.94 percent. The 30-year bond (US30YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 1-12/32 to yield 4.59 percent, down from 4.67 percent.

Two-year note yields (US2YT=RR: Quote, Profile, Research) edged down to 3.50 percent from 3.56 percent, reflecting the increasingly benign outlook for interest rates.

In a market that had been laden with bets on a further downturn in prices -- known as short positions -- the upward swing in government debt took on a momentum of its own as those previously short scrambled to change their minds.

A jump in rate futures on Friday indicated a small chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes as soon as June. Futures now show a year-end Fed funds rate of under 3.75 percent.

Consumer confidence slid to its lowest level in over 1-1/2 years in April, the University of Michigan said.

On the back of soft retail figures released earlier in the week, the data was sufficiently poor to suggest consumers are retrenching in the face of higher gasoline prices.

Michigan's April index fell to 88.7 from 92.6 in March, its fourth consecutive decline. Views on expectations and current conditions also worsened considerably.

An added bonus for bonds, factory activity in New York state eased to its slowest clip in two years. The regional Fed's gauge of manufacturing plunged ot 3.12 in April from 20.18 in March.

General Motors (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was certainly baring the brunt of the softness in consumption. The automotive giant said it would post its steepest quarterly loss since 1992, when the industrial icon tipped close to bankruptcy. That forced a widening of credit spreads and gave a further bid to Treasuries.

For those thinking it was all smooth sailing for bonds from here on out, traders had a word of caution -- everything could change next week as key releases on inflation offer clues into the effect of higher oil costs on overall prices.

If inflation does in fact appear to be marching higher, analysts said, bonds could very well unwind the entire week's worth of gains.
 
U.S. Treasuries Rise, Capping Biggest Weekly Gain Since August
April 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury notes rose, capping their biggest weekly gains since August, as investors sought a haven from tumbling U.S. stock market benchmarks.

The flight from riskier assets helped push Treasury prices higher and 10-year yields to a seven-week low. Demand for government debt also rose as investors curbed expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will raise its interest-rate target this year amid reports showing the economy may be slowing.

``People are beginning to think about asset allocation out of stocks into bonds,'' said Michael Cheah, who manages $2 billion of Treasury and mortgage debt at AIG SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. ``Growth is not as robust as had been anticipated. The market was led to believe there could be an inflationary problem.''

The 4 percent note due in February 2015 rose 1/2, or $5 per $1,000 face amount, to 98 1/16 as of 4 p.m. in New York, according to bond broker Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The yield fell 7 basis points today to 4.24 percent, the lowest since Feb. 24.

The yield is down 23 basis points this week. The peak this year was 4.69 percent on March 23. The yield on the two-year note is down 24 basis points this week to 3.5 percent, also the most since the period ended August 6. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.

``The 10-year note will go back to test 4 percent'' before the next monthly jobs report on May 6, Cheah said. He said he holds five- and 10-year notes in his portfolio.

Benchmark stock indexes are at their lowest of the year. A Merrill Lynch & Co. index of Treasury securities has returned 1.17 percent since mid-March, including reinvested interest. The Standard & Poor's 500 is down about 4.6 percent in that time.

`Buy Treasuries'

Global stock indexes fell after International Business Machines Corp. reported first-quarter profits that missed analysts' estimates. U.S. stock benchmarks fell to their 2005 lows this week, sinking as Ford Motor Co., the second-biggest U.S. automaker, joined competitor General Motors Corp. in cutting profit forecasts.

``The rise in oil and fuel prices and profit warnings from General Motors and Ford have all hurt sentiment,'' said Takashi Yoshikawa, chief investment officer of Tokyo Marine Financial Solutions Ltd., which sells derivatives and structured finance products. ``I am positive and would buy Treasuries.''

The 10-year yield probably will decline to 4 percent by year- end, he said.

The extra yield investors demand to own investment-grade rated corporate bonds rather than Treasuries widened this week to 100 basis points, the most since July. A wider spread indicates an increase in borrowing costs relative to safer benchmark debt. The

Emerging market bonds declined for a second day. The average extra yield, or spread, investors demand to hold the debt of developing nations instead of U.S. Treasuries widened 24 basis points to 413 basis points today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s EMBI Plus Index. spread widened 15 basis points yesterday.

Manufacturing

Treasuries got an early boost when the Fed's New York branch said its manufacturing index fell to a two-year low, adding to speculation the economy is slowing.

The index for April tumbled to 3.1 from 20.2 in March. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a reading of 18. A separate report showed the import price index for March increased 1.8 percent, after a rise of 0.8 percent in February.

``What we really did was re-price Fed expectations'' this week, said Eric Hiller, head of interest-rate strategy at Bank of America Corp. in Chicago. The firm is one of the 22 primary government securities dealers, which trade with the New York Fed.

Interest-rate futures indicate traders expect the Fed's target rate for overnight loans between banks to be closer to 3.75 percent at year-end, rather than 4 percent, he said. The rate is currently 2.75 percent.

Foreign Purchases

Demand for Treasuries also rose earlier as a government report showed an increase in the net purchases of U.S government debt by international investors. Foreigners bought a net $42.5 billion of Treasuries in February, the most since June and up from a net $30.7 billion in January, the Treasury said.

``Foreign central banks have bought and they're not going to sell,'' said Cheah. ``Speculators who have sold have no choice but to buy back.''

Futures speculators pared bets on higher yields, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures released today. Net short positions on the Chicago Board of Trade fell to 189,254 this week, after exceeded 200,000 contracts for three straight weeks for the first time.

Consumer Sentiment

Treasuries briefly gave up their gains after the University of Michigan said its consumer confidence index fell to 88.7 in April from 92.6 in March.

Some investors expected the index to fall more because of high energy prices. Bill Gross, who as chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. manages the world's biggest bond fund, told Bloomberg News on April 12 his firm was forecasting a reading of about 85.

`We don't expect strong rallies from here'' in Treasury debt, said Michael Pond, an interest rate strategist in New York at Barclays Capital Inc. ``A slowdown in aggregate demand, which is seen to be energy driven and only temporary is not expected to slow'' the pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases. The 10-year note yield will probably range between 4.25 percent and 4.45 percent for the next few weeks, said Pond.

The December Eurodollar futures contract yields 3.86 percent, down from 4.175 percent a week ago and this year's high of 4.34 percent on March 28. The futures settle at a three-month lending rate that has averaged 20 basis points above the Fed's target the past 10 years.

Estimates Cut

``Odds are that inflation pressures are contained and will remain so,'' Fed Governor Donald Kohn said in the text of a speech to the directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco yesterday.

Kohn, a voter on the Fed's Open Market Committee, also said bond yields remain low because investors are confident the central bank has price gains in check even as the economy grows.

Firms including Bear, Stearns & Co. and HSBC Securities USA Inc. this week cut their estimates for first-quarter growth.

John Herrmann, Cantor Viewpoint's director of economic commentary, cut his forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield yesterday, saying the economy may grow slower than he initially expected. The 10-year yield may end the year at 4.57 percent, Herrmann wrote in a report yesterday, compared with a prediction of a 5.06 percent in a note published on March 28.



To contact the reporter on this story:
Mark Tannenbaum in New York at at [email protected]

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Robert Burgess at [email protected]
Last Updated: April 15, 2005 16:11 EDT
 
Fleursdumal ha scritto:
riccccc dato che sarà durissima sopportati la settimana prossima, ti obbligo a pensare già da adesso a venderti sui tuoi short almeno una put118 o 118,5 giugno :) :P :)

.

mi tocca anche dare ragione a Fleu ... :P cosa mi tocca :rolleyes:


un accorto e dosato utilizzo opzioni è consigliabile
ne parliamo quando ci si vede, che ho anche il 'nuovo soft'

:)
 
ciao ragazzi non ho resistito e mi son comprato un altro mini a 260 ora due media 460 con la put che non è poi tanto ingrassata ... vediamo lunedi se ritoccano la vola e riesco a chiudere con i soliti 1000€ cesto che se si scende ancora la vola la devono alzare xz forza ... il massimo sarebbe che si risalisse hai massimi che così mi chiappo 2 mini e pure la call
ciao a tutti e a lunedi ....


sinceramente però penso che 1 mini lo chiudo a 460 e poi aspetto sulla riva .... penso che un + 1 lunedi , non fosse altro x motivi tecnici lo faccia
 
Il Bund ... stò gran cornuto !!!

weekly

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ucci ucci ecco quà i volumucci ...

volumi mensile

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volumi trimestrale

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daily

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1113718395azz6.jpg
 

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