Bund Tbond and the bernakka's und trikeko's injection VM199 (2 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione gipa69
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
masgui ha scritto:sottostante sp500.
scadenza opzione giorno?
Valore dollari per punto premio?
payoff??
a te la parola..
rilancio ....
oh, si comincia ma non è che son pronto nè che ho tempo
quindi per adess, no grafici ecc ecc
E OCCHIO sarebbe da fare deltahedging per me, e/o mettere regole d'uscita
ma tanto per pertire, in fretta
092007 = 22/09/2007
102007 = 19/10/2007 dopo la tesi, direi
da IWBANK
ID: MiniS_e_P_Opt
Nome: E-mini S&P 500 Options
Sottostante: Un contratto Mini S&P 500 Futures occhio ...
Valore del contratto: $ 50 per ogni punto indice
Variazione minima di prezzo (Tick): 0,25 ($12,5) per premi > $3
Valore Tick: 0,05 ($2,50) per premi < = $3
Scadenze quotate: 4 scadenze trimestrali nel ciclo (Marzo, Giugno, Settembre, Dicembre), 2 scadenze mensili
Orari di Negoziazione: 00:00 - 22:15
Ultimo giorno di negoziazione: 3° venerdì del mese di scadenza.
Orario di Negoziazione: 00:00 - 22:15
Esercizio: Opzioni di tipo Americano
Codice: ES**** (ES + strike + mese e anno)
marginazione TIMS
costo, secondo il profilo....
nota bene
i prezzi di prima erano per la opzione sull'indice
iw tratta opz MINI sul FUTURE
però, tanto per cominciare, diaciamo che son correlate ....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
bene, lavorate bene mi raccomando!
Richard Russell è attualmente molto costruttivo.. mmmmhmhmhmhh
August 29, 2007 -- (Bloomberg) -- For all the hysteria about a global credit crisis that created the biggest run on Treasury bills in two decades, high-yield, high-risk bonds may prove to be the best investment in the debt market. That, at least, is what James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management, Matthew Eagan, portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., and Nuveen Investment Management's Manny Labrinos are telling their customers.
MFS is adding bonds of casino and health-care companies, while Loomis Sayles is scouting for "unfairly punished'' debt such as loans to Chrysler Group amid a credit rout that prompted a 3.14 percent decline in the value of high-yield debt in July, the worst monthly performance in five years. High-yield bonds are having their best month since April, beating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and returning more than investment-grade debt.
"Most of the worst is over,'' said Swanson, who helps oversee $1.3 billion of fixed-income assets at Boston-based MFS. "We're seeing a lot of good bargains out there.''
Russell Comment -- I always take seriously a man who puts his money where his mouth is.
........................................................................... Gad, this has been a tough market to write about! It's tough because yesterday's plunge left us hanging. Was it a sold-out bottom we were seeing or was it an express train heading due south? No way of knowing at the time. I told you that I'm going to abbreviate the sites on Wednesday, and that's what I'm going to do today. This is a perfect time to wait for today's close to see where we are. First, yesterday was the fifth 90% downside day since July 24. That's a lot of fear and panic packed into roughly one month. But I had a slew of questions about yesterdays panic decline --
(1) Why were there only 75 new lows yesterday on the NYSE? By the way, Yahoo showed that there were 75 new lows on the NYSE, while this morning's more authoritative WSJ shows only 42 new lows. Either way, both are a far cry from the 1132 new lows recorded on August 16. Thus, the "internal low" for this market decline is still very much intact. Bullish.
(2) Yesterday the Bullish Percentage (BP) of Stocks on the NYSE was 43.58% -- despite the 280 point plunge in the Dow, the BP was down only slightly from Monday's 44.71%. But remember -- at the August 16 market low, the BP was down to 30.99%. Bullish.
(3) With all the hysteria, neither the Dow nor the S&P have suffered a 10% correction on a closing basis. Bullish.
(4) We've had a panic decline, but the major stock averages are still UP for the year. Bullish.
Ah, sweet mysteries of Wall Street. As of yesterday's close, the market was heavily oversold -- I listed above the reasons why I thought yesterday's big decline was a last desperate fake-put by the bears. Despite the drop in the Dow (and the Dow is where everyone watches), the internal action of the market was superb. It was so good that I checked and rechecked my figures. Now think about this. After five 90% down days of July 24, July 26, August 3 and August 28, today we had a dramatic break in the pattern. From yesterday's oversold low, today looks as though we got a 90% up-day! Everything was UP today. A huge 29 of the D-J Industrials were up today. And this is just as extraordinary -- all 15 of the most active stocks on the NYSE were higher.
I can't remember the last time I saw that kind of explosive bullish action. I believe my call was correct -- the August 16 low was indeed THE low. The stock market has discounted the worst. Owners of most stocks are now out of danger. If you have to be in only one place, the place to be is in the Diamonds (DIA), which are a perfect proxy for the Dow. Wait, I can't send out a site without including a few charts. Below, behold, a weekly chart of our leader, the Dow. You can see that long needle tail, that was the intra-day low on August 16. But the Dow never closed there, it closed down only 14 points. Bullish. The slow stochastics on the chart seem to screaming "the bottom, this is the bottom!" MACD is severely oversold and should turn up shortly. As far as I'm concerned, the Dow looks very bullish.
Next I'm showing a comparable weekly chart of the widely-followed S&P 500. Not quite the same story here because the S&P closed yesterday below both its 10-week and its 40-week moving average. But today the S&P closed above its 40
week MA. At the bottom of the chart we see that both MACD and the full stochastics are deeply oversold. RSI appears to be turning up. The histograms are shortening, moving bullishly towards zero. And the slow stochastics speak for themselves. Prognosis -- bullish.
TODAY'S MARKET ACTION -- My PTI was up 6 to 5936. Moving average was 5912, so my PTI remains bullish by 24 points. The Dow was up a huge 247.36 to 13289.21. Three movers -- XOM up 2.23, IBM up 2.57 and UTX up 2.35. Sept. crude was up 1.78 to 73.51. Can't keep crude under 70 for long. Transports were up a big 104.44. Utilities were up 10.86 to 487.87. There were 2808 advances on the NYSE and just 463 declines. UP volume was an incredible 95.4% of up + down volume!! A 90% up-day! There were 22 new highs and 82 new lows. My 5-day high-low differentials deteriorated slightly from yesterday's minus 183 to today's minus 196. Total NYSE volume was an expanding 3.27 billion shares. S&P was up 31.11 to 1463.69. NASDAQ was up 62.52 to 2563.16. My Big Money Breadth Index was up 8 to 786. Bonds were down slightly. Yield on the 10 year T-note was 4.55%. Yield on the long T-bond was 4.87%. Yield on the 91 day T-bill was 3.85%. Yield curve remains bullish. CRB Commodity Index was up 1.94 to 407.66. Dec. gold was up 1.90 to 675.40. Sept. silver was up 8 to 11.84. GDX was up 1.25 to 36.96. HUI was up 8.97 to 322.51. ABX up .98, AEM up 1.59, RGLD up .70, GFI up .49, NEM up .61, PAAS up .84. Gold continues to look good, and believe it or not, once gold starting heading higher the gold stocks will, they WILL follow. STOCKS -- My Most Active Stocks Index was up an extraordinary 15 to 575. The five most active stocks on the NYSE were -- HD up 1.50, CFC up .50, C up
.81, EMC up .54, F up .21. The VIX slumped 2.49 to 23.81. We've seen the high for the VIX.
CONCLUSION -- Today was an eye-opener, just a super-powerful up-market. After today, we shouldn't be surprised to see the market back off a bit and catch its breath. But when a market surges up like this, anything can happen. Let me put it this way, I think we saw the low on August 16. Only negative market action will change my mind. When the facts change, Richard Russell changes. See all you good people tomorrow -- Russell ......................................................................................................
Richard Russell è attualmente molto costruttivo.. mmmmhmhmhmhh
August 29, 2007 -- (Bloomberg) -- For all the hysteria about a global credit crisis that created the biggest run on Treasury bills in two decades, high-yield, high-risk bonds may prove to be the best investment in the debt market. That, at least, is what James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management, Matthew Eagan, portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles & Co., and Nuveen Investment Management's Manny Labrinos are telling their customers.
MFS is adding bonds of casino and health-care companies, while Loomis Sayles is scouting for "unfairly punished'' debt such as loans to Chrysler Group amid a credit rout that prompted a 3.14 percent decline in the value of high-yield debt in July, the worst monthly performance in five years. High-yield bonds are having their best month since April, beating the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and returning more than investment-grade debt.
"Most of the worst is over,'' said Swanson, who helps oversee $1.3 billion of fixed-income assets at Boston-based MFS. "We're seeing a lot of good bargains out there.''
Russell Comment -- I always take seriously a man who puts his money where his mouth is.
........................................................................... Gad, this has been a tough market to write about! It's tough because yesterday's plunge left us hanging. Was it a sold-out bottom we were seeing or was it an express train heading due south? No way of knowing at the time. I told you that I'm going to abbreviate the sites on Wednesday, and that's what I'm going to do today. This is a perfect time to wait for today's close to see where we are. First, yesterday was the fifth 90% downside day since July 24. That's a lot of fear and panic packed into roughly one month. But I had a slew of questions about yesterdays panic decline --
(1) Why were there only 75 new lows yesterday on the NYSE? By the way, Yahoo showed that there were 75 new lows on the NYSE, while this morning's more authoritative WSJ shows only 42 new lows. Either way, both are a far cry from the 1132 new lows recorded on August 16. Thus, the "internal low" for this market decline is still very much intact. Bullish.
(2) Yesterday the Bullish Percentage (BP) of Stocks on the NYSE was 43.58% -- despite the 280 point plunge in the Dow, the BP was down only slightly from Monday's 44.71%. But remember -- at the August 16 market low, the BP was down to 30.99%. Bullish.
(3) With all the hysteria, neither the Dow nor the S&P have suffered a 10% correction on a closing basis. Bullish.
(4) We've had a panic decline, but the major stock averages are still UP for the year. Bullish.
Ah, sweet mysteries of Wall Street. As of yesterday's close, the market was heavily oversold -- I listed above the reasons why I thought yesterday's big decline was a last desperate fake-put by the bears. Despite the drop in the Dow (and the Dow is where everyone watches), the internal action of the market was superb. It was so good that I checked and rechecked my figures. Now think about this. After five 90% down days of July 24, July 26, August 3 and August 28, today we had a dramatic break in the pattern. From yesterday's oversold low, today looks as though we got a 90% up-day! Everything was UP today. A huge 29 of the D-J Industrials were up today. And this is just as extraordinary -- all 15 of the most active stocks on the NYSE were higher.
I can't remember the last time I saw that kind of explosive bullish action. I believe my call was correct -- the August 16 low was indeed THE low. The stock market has discounted the worst. Owners of most stocks are now out of danger. If you have to be in only one place, the place to be is in the Diamonds (DIA), which are a perfect proxy for the Dow. Wait, I can't send out a site without including a few charts. Below, behold, a weekly chart of our leader, the Dow. You can see that long needle tail, that was the intra-day low on August 16. But the Dow never closed there, it closed down only 14 points. Bullish. The slow stochastics on the chart seem to screaming "the bottom, this is the bottom!" MACD is severely oversold and should turn up shortly. As far as I'm concerned, the Dow looks very bullish.
Next I'm showing a comparable weekly chart of the widely-followed S&P 500. Not quite the same story here because the S&P closed yesterday below both its 10-week and its 40-week moving average. But today the S&P closed above its 40
week MA. At the bottom of the chart we see that both MACD and the full stochastics are deeply oversold. RSI appears to be turning up. The histograms are shortening, moving bullishly towards zero. And the slow stochastics speak for themselves. Prognosis -- bullish.
TODAY'S MARKET ACTION -- My PTI was up 6 to 5936. Moving average was 5912, so my PTI remains bullish by 24 points. The Dow was up a huge 247.36 to 13289.21. Three movers -- XOM up 2.23, IBM up 2.57 and UTX up 2.35. Sept. crude was up 1.78 to 73.51. Can't keep crude under 70 for long. Transports were up a big 104.44. Utilities were up 10.86 to 487.87. There were 2808 advances on the NYSE and just 463 declines. UP volume was an incredible 95.4% of up + down volume!! A 90% up-day! There were 22 new highs and 82 new lows. My 5-day high-low differentials deteriorated slightly from yesterday's minus 183 to today's minus 196. Total NYSE volume was an expanding 3.27 billion shares. S&P was up 31.11 to 1463.69. NASDAQ was up 62.52 to 2563.16. My Big Money Breadth Index was up 8 to 786. Bonds were down slightly. Yield on the 10 year T-note was 4.55%. Yield on the long T-bond was 4.87%. Yield on the 91 day T-bill was 3.85%. Yield curve remains bullish. CRB Commodity Index was up 1.94 to 407.66. Dec. gold was up 1.90 to 675.40. Sept. silver was up 8 to 11.84. GDX was up 1.25 to 36.96. HUI was up 8.97 to 322.51. ABX up .98, AEM up 1.59, RGLD up .70, GFI up .49, NEM up .61, PAAS up .84. Gold continues to look good, and believe it or not, once gold starting heading higher the gold stocks will, they WILL follow. STOCKS -- My Most Active Stocks Index was up an extraordinary 15 to 575. The five most active stocks on the NYSE were -- HD up 1.50, CFC up .50, C up
.81, EMC up .54, F up .21. The VIX slumped 2.49 to 23.81. We've seen the high for the VIX.
CONCLUSION -- Today was an eye-opener, just a super-powerful up-market. After today, we shouldn't be surprised to see the market back off a bit and catch its breath. But when a market surges up like this, anything can happen. Let me put it this way, I think we saw the low on August 16. Only negative market action will change my mind. When the facts change, Richard Russell changes. See all you good people tomorrow -- Russell ......................................................................................................
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Non c'entra molto ma è molto educativo...
Economics in One Lesson
by Henry Hazlitt
The Lesson
◄ PrefaceSection 2 ►Contents
Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. The inherent difficulties of the subject would be great enough in any case, but they are multiplied a thousandfold by a factor that is insignificant in, say, physics, mathematics or medicine-the special pleading of selfish interests. While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.
In addition to these endless pleadings of self-interest, there is a second main factor that spawns new economic fallacies every day. This is the persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy, or its effects only on a special group, and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups. It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences.
In this lies the whole difference between good economics and bad. The bad economist sees only what immediately strikes the eye; the good economist also looks beyond. The bad economist sees only the direct consequences of a proposed course; the good economist looks also at the longer and indirect consequences. The bad economist sees only what the effect of a given policy has been or will be on one particular group; the good economist inquires also what the effect of the policy will be on all groups.
The distinction may seem obvious. The precaution of looking for all the consequences of a given policy to everyone may seem elementary. Doesn't everybody know, in his personal life, that there are all sorts of indulgences delightful at the moment but disastrous in the end? Doesn't every little boy know that if he eats enough candy he will get sick? Doesn't the fellow who gets drunk know that he will wake up next morning with a ghastly stomach and a horrible head? Doesn't the dipsomaniac know that he is ruining his liver and shortening his life? Doesn't the Don Juan know that he is letting himself in for every sort of risk, from blackmail to disease? Finally, to bring it to the economic though still personal realm, do not the idler and the spendthrift know, even in the midst of their glorious fling, that they are heading for a future of debt and poverty?
Yet when we enter the field of public economics, these elementary truths are ignored. There are men regarded today as brilliant economists, who deprecate saving and recommend squandering on a national scale as the way of economic salvation; and when anyone points to what the consequences of these policies will be in the long run, they reply flippantly, as might the prodigal son of a warning father: “In the long run we are all dead.” And such shallow wisecracks pass as devastating epigrams and the ripest wisdom.
But the tragedy is that, on the contrary, we are already suffering the long-run consequences of the policies of the remote or recent past. Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. The long-run consequences of some economic policies may become evident in a few months. Others may not become evident for several years. Still others may not become evident for decades. But in every case those long-run consequences are contained in the policy as surely as the hen was in the egg, the flower in the seed.
From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.
http://jim.com/econ/contents.html
Economics in One Lesson
by Henry Hazlitt
The Lesson
◄ PrefaceSection 2 ►Contents
Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. The inherent difficulties of the subject would be great enough in any case, but they are multiplied a thousandfold by a factor that is insignificant in, say, physics, mathematics or medicine-the special pleading of selfish interests. While every group has certain economic interests identical with those of all groups, every group has also, as we shall see, interests antagonistic to those of all other groups. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.
In addition to these endless pleadings of self-interest, there is a second main factor that spawns new economic fallacies every day. This is the persistent tendency of men to see only the immediate effects of a given policy, or its effects only on a special group, and to neglect to inquire what the long-run effects of that policy will be not only on that special group but on all groups. It is the fallacy of overlooking secondary consequences.
In this lies the whole difference between good economics and bad. The bad economist sees only what immediately strikes the eye; the good economist also looks beyond. The bad economist sees only the direct consequences of a proposed course; the good economist looks also at the longer and indirect consequences. The bad economist sees only what the effect of a given policy has been or will be on one particular group; the good economist inquires also what the effect of the policy will be on all groups.
The distinction may seem obvious. The precaution of looking for all the consequences of a given policy to everyone may seem elementary. Doesn't everybody know, in his personal life, that there are all sorts of indulgences delightful at the moment but disastrous in the end? Doesn't every little boy know that if he eats enough candy he will get sick? Doesn't the fellow who gets drunk know that he will wake up next morning with a ghastly stomach and a horrible head? Doesn't the dipsomaniac know that he is ruining his liver and shortening his life? Doesn't the Don Juan know that he is letting himself in for every sort of risk, from blackmail to disease? Finally, to bring it to the economic though still personal realm, do not the idler and the spendthrift know, even in the midst of their glorious fling, that they are heading for a future of debt and poverty?
Yet when we enter the field of public economics, these elementary truths are ignored. There are men regarded today as brilliant economists, who deprecate saving and recommend squandering on a national scale as the way of economic salvation; and when anyone points to what the consequences of these policies will be in the long run, they reply flippantly, as might the prodigal son of a warning father: “In the long run we are all dead.” And such shallow wisecracks pass as devastating epigrams and the ripest wisdom.
But the tragedy is that, on the contrary, we are already suffering the long-run consequences of the policies of the remote or recent past. Today is already the tomorrow which the bad economist yesterday urged us to ignore. The long-run consequences of some economic policies may become evident in a few months. Others may not become evident for several years. Still others may not become evident for decades. But in every case those long-run consequences are contained in the policy as surely as the hen was in the egg, the flower in the seed.
From this aspect, therefore, the whole of economics can be reduced to a single lesson, and that lesson can be reduced to a single sentence. The art of economics consists in looking not merely at the immediate but at the longer effects of any act or policy; it consists in tracing the consequences of that policy not merely for one group but for all groups.
http://jim.com/econ/contents.html
quicksilver
Forumer storico
stanotte iwbank ha dormito, anche a voi c'è il buco in tutti i grafici? (della quicktrade)
quicksilver
Forumer storico
Attenzione grossa infornata di dati oggi
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/topic-redirect-vp516170.html#516170
e poi discorso di bernanke alle 16:00 e aggiunto all'ultimo momento vedo discorso del presidente bush alle 17:10
ricordo che la borsa americana è chiusa lunedi 3 settembre (anche se i futures saranno aperti come al solito sino alle 17:30)
mentre le commodities gia stasera chiudono alle 19:00
http://trader.iwbank.it/common/templates/pop.jhtml?TYPE=content&SRC=apertura_mercati.jhtml
(tutti orari nostri ovviamente)
http://www.investireoggi.it/forum/topic-redirect-vp516170.html#516170
e poi discorso di bernanke alle 16:00 e aggiunto all'ultimo momento vedo discorso del presidente bush alle 17:10
ricordo che la borsa americana è chiusa lunedi 3 settembre (anche se i futures saranno aperti come al solito sino alle 17:30)
mentre le commodities gia stasera chiudono alle 19:00
http://trader.iwbank.it/common/templates/pop.jhtml?TYPE=content&SRC=apertura_mercati.jhtml
(tutti orari nostri ovviamente)
quicksilver
Forumer storico
per il discorso di bush
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/31/business/31home.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/31/business/31home.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin