beh stavolta possiamo dire che tutti sappiamo cosa diranno i payroll domani grazie a lui
Thursday payrolla
Posted by
Tracy Alloway on Jun 03 10:50. What’s this?
A sudden rash of market optimism?
US markets moved sharply higher on Wednesday, and Europe is following their lead on Thursday. Since all eyes are firmly set on Thursday’s US
ADP employment report — and Friday’s non-farm payrolls — this can only mean one thing: the number’s been leaked, or
Goldman Sachs has upped-its-forecast.
From BNP Paribas on Thursday:
The data from the US has continued to provide positive surprises, with all the signs that the labour market report on Friday will deliver bullish USD news. Indeed, the challenger report provided the first piece of supporting evidence yesterday pointing towards a strong non-farm payroll report, followed by the monster employment survey. We expect this positive picture to be confirmed by today’s ADP release for May where the market consensus is for 70k. However, the market is already forecasting a strong non-farm payroll with the published market consensus at 515k for the May report [to be published on Friday]. But we believe that the risk is for an even stronger reading. Hence, we maintain our bullish USDJPY view and expect an initial move towards the 95.00/96.00 area. Indeed, our economists have revised their non-farm payroll forecast higher, now expecting 615k, with the market consensus also appearing to be moving their estimates higher. Hence, the market consensus is now likely higher than that published in the surveys.
Don’t be coy, BNP Paribas.
Might that ‘even stronger’ payroll expectation have something to do with the below?
(
Reuters) – President Barack Obama on Wednesday said he believed that the upcoming May employment report would show strong growth in U.S. payrolls.
“We expect to see strong jobs growth in Friday’s report,” Obama said in a speech in Pittsburgh. “This economy is getting stronger by the day.”
Presumably the US president would know, right?
Bear in mind that Friday’s figure is likely to be skewed by the addition of
573,779 US census workers. Excluding government hiring, analysts were aiming for a gain of 190,000 jobs in May, as of Wednesday and according to
Reuters.
And if the final report misses expectations, at least markets will know who to blame (and not in a vague, political/economic sense either):