Derivati USA: CME-CBOT-NYMEX-ICE BUND, TBOND and the middle of the guado (VM 69) (6 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
Euro 'will be dead in five years'
The euro will have broken up before the end of this Parliamentary term, according to the bulk of economists taking part in a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph.
By Edmund Conway
Published: 10:23PM BST 05 Jun 2010
9 Comments
The survey's findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office
The single currency is in its death throes and may not survive in its current membership for a week, let alone the next five years, according to a selection of responses to the survey – the first major wide-ranging litmus test of economic opinion in the City since the election. ( cioè in un mese) The findings underline suspicions that the new Chancellor, George Osborne, will have to firefight a full-blown crisis in Britain's biggest trading partner in his first years in office.
Of the 25 leading City economists who took part in the Telegraph survey, 12 predicted that the euro would not survive in its current form this Parliamentary term, compared with eight who suspected it would. Five declared themselves undecided. The finding is only one of a number of remarkable conclusions, including that:
45% contro, 30% a favore
• The economy will grow by well over a percentage point less next year than the Budget predicted in March.
• The Government will borrow almost £10bn less next year than the Treasury previously forecast, despite this weaker growth.
• Just as many economists think the Bank of England will not raise rates until 2012 or later as think it will lift borrowing costs this year.
But the conclusion on the euro is perhaps the most remarkable finding. A year ago or less, few within the City would have confidently predicted the currency's demise. But the travails of Greece, Spain and Portugal in recent weeks, plus German Chancellor Angela Merkel's acknowledgement that the currency is facing an "existential crisis", have radically shifted opinion.
Two of the eight experts who predicted that the currency would survive said it would do so only at the cost of seeing at least one of its members default on its sovereign debt. Andrew Lilico, chief economist at think tank Policy Exchange, said there was "nearly zero chance" of the euro surviving with its current membership, adding: "Greece will certainly default on its debts, and it is an open question whether Greece will experience some form of revolution or coup – I'd put the likelihood of that over the next five years as around one in four."
Douglas McWilliams of the Centre for Economics and Business Research said the single currency "may not even survive the next week", while David Blanchflower, professor at Dartmouth College and former Bank of England policymaker, added: "The political implications [of euro disintegration] are likely to be far-reaching – Germans are opposed to paying for others and may well quit."
Four of the economists said that despite the wider suspicion that Greece or some of the weaker economies may be forced out of the currency, the most likely country to leave would be Germany.
Peter Warburton of consultancy Economic Perspectives said: "Possibly Germany will leave. Possibly other central and eastern European countries – plus Denmark – will have joined. Possibly, there will be a multi-tier membership of the EU and a mechanism for entering and leaving the single currency. I think the project will survive, but not in its current form."
Tim Congdon of International Monetary Research said: "The eurozone will lose three or four members e_SEnDGreece, Portugal, maybe Ireland e_SEnD and could break up altogether because of the growing friction between France and Germany."
The recent worries about the euro's fate followed the creation last month of a $1 trillion (£691bn) bail-out fund to prevent future collapses. Although the fund boosted confidence initially, investors abandoned the euro after politicians showed reluctance to support it wholeheartedly.
sempre titoli flamboyant
e contenuto mooolto più moderato
bravi sasanach
masgui
Forumer storico
.... fib l'ho fatto per anni con i miei attrattori
all'inizio senza soldi ho lavorato parecchio con le opzioni ( allora si chiamavano dont e non c'erano tutte le robe di adesso) poi ho cambiato ..insomma la trafila l'ho fatta tutta
adesso è un periodo che mi dedico alle cv e a ...altro
di cui ti posto una foto ...l'altra foto non posso ( se mi sgama s'incaz....
Fernando attualemnte ho un honda cre 250 r 2 tempi. In passato la moto più stradale che ho avuto è stata una TT600R
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
..bella ...purtroppo non ho le scarpe adatteFernando attualemnte ho un honda cre 250 r 2 tempi. In passato la moto più stradale che ho avuto è stata una TT600R
Metatarso
Forumer storico
azzo il TT, và che coincidenzeFernando attualemnte ho un honda cre 250 r 2 tempi. In passato la moto più stradale che ho avuto è stata una TT600R
ormai l'ho venduta da tempo, sigh, ricordo ancora con nostalgia i sideways sull'asfalto 
stranamente la gomma davanti non si consumava mai, boh sarà stato un difetto 
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
questo diche che la foresta fuma...mica l'ho capito tanto
http://www.francescocaruso.ch/lopinione-la-foresta-fuma/
L’Opinione – La foresta fuma
http://www.francescocaruso.ch/lopinione-la-foresta-fuma/
L’Opinione – La foresta fuma
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
nooooooooooo....azzo il TT, và che coincidenze
succede solo quando il kulo pesa troppo
Zen lento
Forumer attivo
questo diche che la foresta fuma...mica l'ho capito tanto
http://www.francescocaruso.ch/lopinione-la-foresta-fuma/
L’Opinione – La foresta fuma
Nun sapeva che di'...
O forse sabato si è fatta qualche canna di troppo
Metatarso
Forumer storico
alt rettifica ! io avevo il TT dei primi anni '90, se ti riferisci al TT600 fatta in italia dalla Belgarda, quella era veramente più "stradale", che delusione quando la commercializzaronoFernando attualemnte ho un honda cre 250 r 2 tempi. In passato la moto più stradale che ho avuto è stata una TT600R
Metatarso
Forumer storico
E poi gli italioti si lamentano dei giornalisti nostrani.sempre titoli flamboyant
e contenuto mooolto più moderato
bravi sasanach
Certo che se gli inglesi mettono la stessa serietà dappertutto, non c'è da meravigliarsi che quegli stronZi della British Petroleum hanno distrutto il golfo del Messico. 