Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
anche l'ism a 56..sopra attese...tutti dati ultra positivi...ma i merkati mi sa che già scontavano il tutto..e forse ...inizia a cambiare il sentiment...su dati ottimi...si intravede la prospettiva che la Fed non tagli i tassi ma rimanga ferma....e domani con i payrolls vedremo il futuro anche del dollaro...se riuscirà almeno nel breve a ripigliarsi...oppure riprenderà la sua corsa alla svalutazione
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
l'ultima volta che è uscito un dato importante, quello sull'inflazione, il T-bond il giorno prima fece una mossa importante verso l'alto per venire smentito e rinculare il giorno dopo
Oggi stessa storia al contrario col T-bronx a mezza figura dal riferimento e quasi una figura sotto dal max intraday , quindi se domani la storia si ripete i payrolls faranno schifo
:mago:
Oggi stessa storia al contrario col T-bronx a mezza figura dal riferimento e quasi una figura sotto dal max intraday , quindi se domani la storia si ripete i payrolls faranno schifo
:mago:
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
TREASURIES-Bonds fall on robust services, jobless claim drop
Thu May 3, 2007
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on Thursday as stronger growth in the services sector and a drop in jobless claims unnerved bond investors ahead of Friday's closely watched employment report.
Bonds slid on the stronger-than-expected performance in services, which make up about 80 percent of the U.S. economy. The rise suggested to investors the Federal Reserve has less reason to cut official interest rates later this year.
"Bond investors are edgy because other April data, including the manufacturing ISM index, suggest an acceleration in activity after the trough in March," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"The Fed is not eager to cut rates as it is. Signs of life in the early April data are likely to reinforce the sense that it's better to wait."
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> were trading 7/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.68 percent from 4.65 percent late on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Bonds already had eased early on Thursday after data showing weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest since January, suggesting to some investors the labor market may be stronger than had been anticipated.
However, the focus remained on the Friday payrolls report. According to a Reuters survey of analysts taken last week, the U.S. economy is expected to have added 100,000 jobs in April, down from the 180,000 gain in March.
Traders were betting on Thursday that U.S. employers added 88,800 jobs in April, according to the preliminary implied median market forecast of a derivatives auction. The result was below the 96,100 jobs implied in an auction on Wednesday.
Thursday's jobless data "doesn't really have any effect on tomorrow's payroll figure but it does suggest that labor market conditions remain pretty tight, so there will be some nervousness ahead of the payrolls report," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Bond prices were also undermined by stronger stocks, with the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index pushing up past 1,500 for the first time since September 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management said on Thursday its monthly non-manufacturing index rose to 56.0 in April from 52.4 in March. Analysts had forecast 53.0. For details see [ID:nN03488018]. A number above 50 indicates growth.
Also, data showed U.S. business productivity grew at a greater-than-expected 1.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Unit labor costs grew at a 0.6 percent rate in the same period, which was well below the 4 percent rise analysts were expecting.
Investors closely watch unit labor costs for any sign that wage pressures might be contributing to price inflation.
Two-year notes <US2YT> were trading 3/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.70 percent from 4.65 percent late on Wednesday, while five-year debt <US5YT> was 6/32 down for a yield of 4.60 percent from 4.55 percent.
Thirty-year bonds <US30YT> were 16/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.85 percent from 4.82 percent.
Thu May 3, 2007
By Chris Reese
NEW YORK, May 3 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries fell on Thursday as stronger growth in the services sector and a drop in jobless claims unnerved bond investors ahead of Friday's closely watched employment report.
Bonds slid on the stronger-than-expected performance in services, which make up about 80 percent of the U.S. economy. The rise suggested to investors the Federal Reserve has less reason to cut official interest rates later this year.
"Bond investors are edgy because other April data, including the manufacturing ISM index, suggest an acceleration in activity after the trough in March," said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York.
"The Fed is not eager to cut rates as it is. Signs of life in the early April data are likely to reinforce the sense that it's better to wait."
Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT> were trading 7/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.68 percent from 4.65 percent late on Wednesday. Bond yields move inversely to prices.
Bonds already had eased early on Thursday after data showing weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest since January, suggesting to some investors the labor market may be stronger than had been anticipated.
However, the focus remained on the Friday payrolls report. According to a Reuters survey of analysts taken last week, the U.S. economy is expected to have added 100,000 jobs in April, down from the 180,000 gain in March.
Traders were betting on Thursday that U.S. employers added 88,800 jobs in April, according to the preliminary implied median market forecast of a derivatives auction. The result was below the 96,100 jobs implied in an auction on Wednesday.
Thursday's jobless data "doesn't really have any effect on tomorrow's payroll figure but it does suggest that labor market conditions remain pretty tight, so there will be some nervousness ahead of the payrolls report," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Florida.
Bond prices were also undermined by stronger stocks, with the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index pushing up past 1,500 for the first time since September 2000.
The Institute for Supply Management said on Thursday its monthly non-manufacturing index rose to 56.0 in April from 52.4 in March. Analysts had forecast 53.0. For details see [ID:nN03488018]. A number above 50 indicates growth.
Also, data showed U.S. business productivity grew at a greater-than-expected 1.7 percent annual rate in the first quarter. Unit labor costs grew at a 0.6 percent rate in the same period, which was well below the 4 percent rise analysts were expecting.
Investors closely watch unit labor costs for any sign that wage pressures might be contributing to price inflation.
Two-year notes <US2YT> were trading 3/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.70 percent from 4.65 percent late on Wednesday, while five-year debt <US5YT> was 6/32 down for a yield of 4.60 percent from 4.55 percent.
Thirty-year bonds <US30YT> were 16/32 lower in price for a yield of 4.85 percent from 4.82 percent.
f4f
翠鸟科
dan24 ha scritto:chi sono?
dove vado?
ma perchè Fleu esiste?
stasera proverò a rispondere a queste domande...
ciao Kekke
M'sieur
la trovo escatologico anzichènò
quindi, mi consenta di porgere un mio suggerimento di risposta alle sue domande
1) Lei è un bbbandito, amico nostro e ( per Sua ammissione
) semi-gay3) rispondo alla tre,
Fleu esiste in quanto bbbandito, amico nostro e Sua nemesis personale, nonchè colta e garbata spalla dialettica
2) sul dove Lei vada ... un suggerimento sorge spontaneo e corale ...
VDVL'Q
f4f
翠鸟科
Fleursdumal ha scritto:l'ultima volta che è uscito un dato importante, quello sull'inflazione, il T-bond il giorno prima fece una mossa importante verso l'alto per venire smentito e rinculare il giorno dopo
Oggi stessa storia al contrario col T-bronx a mezza figura dal riferimento e quasi una figura sotto dal max intraday , quindi se domani la storia si ripete i payrolls faranno schifo
la storia non si ripete mai
è sempre la stessa musica, ma ogni volta cambia il ritmo
liberamente tratto da Mark Twain
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