Fernando'S
Forumer storico
qualcosa si muove....
dan nun te preoccupa.... non te riguarda
dan nun te preoccupa.... non te riguarda
Bund, TBond e i Dannati del carry trade. (VM 91)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
Fernando'S ha scritto:qualcosa si muove....
dan nun te preoccupa.... non te riguarda
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1178100351confrontooo.gif
verso sud sarebbe l'ideale...
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
già... però vedo che rimbalzano proprio sulla vecchia proiezione
questi son capaci che fanno lo scherzetto
questi son capaci che fanno lo scherzetto
dan24
Forumer storico
Fernando'S ha scritto:
lo scherzo lo hanno già fatto stamani fregandosene altamente dei 22 punti di ritracciamento dello spoore dai max ai min...poi recuperati ma solo in parte...euroa sui max...e spoore a 9 punti ancora...alla grande direi...
dovevano allinearsi...invece ...
rimango con un solo scort sullo stoxxo proprio per paura dello scherzo del 1° maggio....
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Anche a me va a rilento....
2007-05-02 Saxo Bank: For stocks, a look at the adage, "In May, walk away…"
For stocks, a look at the adage, "In May, walk away…"
Torben Krogh Nielsen is limiting long equity exposure, citing historically lackluster Q2 and worrisome US data, while Kristian Siggaard Jensen looks for TRY selloff to weigh on Asia carries
FX strategist Kristian Siggaard Jensen comments on a sketchy outlook for USD – and the rising spectre of recession for the US economy. "Friday’s dour GDP growth figure has proven that the Fed should have hiked back in late 2006. Today’s consumer spending and personal income data, which came out last time around at 0.6% - is likely to tick in above consensus expectation today. The Fed expected a slowdown in Q1 growth, which they’ve gotten, and a slowdown in inflation, which they haven’t. If this scenario continues into Q2, it is not farfetched to consider that the Fed may try to backtrack, to hike 50 bp to 6%, and that looks like recessionary behavior to us.
"The sort of inflation bias currently predominant in the US tends to support the carry trade, which is solely focused on yield, and would therefore be supportive of USD in the short term, but USD-bearish in the mid-term. In this kind of environment, trade timing is of the essence – forget the perfect wave, it’s like trying to avoid a wipeout. At the start of a heavy US data week, we’re leaning into USD trades, rather than running headlong into positions of any kind, and looking for less equivocal cues from the market. If the front end of the yield curve steepens today, this should support Asia carry trades, in which case we favor EUR/JPY above anything."
In other EM news, the risk quotient to the Turkish lira has steeply increased on reports circulating Friday of an increasingly contentious secularist debate ahead of Turkey’s presidential election. Aside from the regional exposure to TRY, Siggaard-Jensen notes that EUR/TRY may be popularly considered "the preferred carry trade of Northern Europe" and that continued selloff in TRY could spill over into other carries, weighing heavily on USD/JPY and severely infecting other EM currencies as investors dash to cut risky assets."
Equity strategist Torben Krogh Nielsen comments on a lackluster seasonal outlook for stocks going into the traditionally muffled May-October season. "Friday’s Q1 GDP growth number out of the US was appalling by any measure, despite the standard disclaimer due to its vulnerability to multiple revisions etc., and still the market recovered. Clearly, this is a market that is not asking too many questions before a rally, and while we must respect the trend, we feel the setup is becoming increasingly redolent of the old market adage, ‘In May, you walk away.’ We believe there will be a reaction to poor US growth and the implications of latest unrest in the emerging markets will only compound a bearish outlook for stocks. We are looking to cut our long equity exposure as any rally will be at risk if the market decides to take a closer look at the slowdown in US growth in Q1, and fairly unimpressive growth in S&P company earnings. In the short term, we look to see if the Nikkei breaks 17000 on back of today’s JPY strength, which could emerge as the area to begin shorting global indices."
Futures strategist Serge Laureau remains bearish on bunds below 113.90 favoring the spread against US T-notes, despite surprisingly weak retail sales figures out of Germany today, noting that the inflation risk for long-term rates will prevail for the ECB over shorter-term indicators like retail sales. Commodities rallied handsomely on Friday but resistance levels remain capped, and Laureau notes $685/$688 as the level to beat in gold today. Failing a break of that key level, look for more downside in metals.
2007-05-02 Saxo Bank: For stocks, a look at the adage, "In May, walk away…"
For stocks, a look at the adage, "In May, walk away…"
Torben Krogh Nielsen is limiting long equity exposure, citing historically lackluster Q2 and worrisome US data, while Kristian Siggaard Jensen looks for TRY selloff to weigh on Asia carries
FX strategist Kristian Siggaard Jensen comments on a sketchy outlook for USD – and the rising spectre of recession for the US economy. "Friday’s dour GDP growth figure has proven that the Fed should have hiked back in late 2006. Today’s consumer spending and personal income data, which came out last time around at 0.6% - is likely to tick in above consensus expectation today. The Fed expected a slowdown in Q1 growth, which they’ve gotten, and a slowdown in inflation, which they haven’t. If this scenario continues into Q2, it is not farfetched to consider that the Fed may try to backtrack, to hike 50 bp to 6%, and that looks like recessionary behavior to us.
"The sort of inflation bias currently predominant in the US tends to support the carry trade, which is solely focused on yield, and would therefore be supportive of USD in the short term, but USD-bearish in the mid-term. In this kind of environment, trade timing is of the essence – forget the perfect wave, it’s like trying to avoid a wipeout. At the start of a heavy US data week, we’re leaning into USD trades, rather than running headlong into positions of any kind, and looking for less equivocal cues from the market. If the front end of the yield curve steepens today, this should support Asia carry trades, in which case we favor EUR/JPY above anything."
In other EM news, the risk quotient to the Turkish lira has steeply increased on reports circulating Friday of an increasingly contentious secularist debate ahead of Turkey’s presidential election. Aside from the regional exposure to TRY, Siggaard-Jensen notes that EUR/TRY may be popularly considered "the preferred carry trade of Northern Europe" and that continued selloff in TRY could spill over into other carries, weighing heavily on USD/JPY and severely infecting other EM currencies as investors dash to cut risky assets."
Equity strategist Torben Krogh Nielsen comments on a lackluster seasonal outlook for stocks going into the traditionally muffled May-October season. "Friday’s Q1 GDP growth number out of the US was appalling by any measure, despite the standard disclaimer due to its vulnerability to multiple revisions etc., and still the market recovered. Clearly, this is a market that is not asking too many questions before a rally, and while we must respect the trend, we feel the setup is becoming increasingly redolent of the old market adage, ‘In May, you walk away.’ We believe there will be a reaction to poor US growth and the implications of latest unrest in the emerging markets will only compound a bearish outlook for stocks. We are looking to cut our long equity exposure as any rally will be at risk if the market decides to take a closer look at the slowdown in US growth in Q1, and fairly unimpressive growth in S&P company earnings. In the short term, we look to see if the Nikkei breaks 17000 on back of today’s JPY strength, which could emerge as the area to begin shorting global indices."
Futures strategist Serge Laureau remains bearish on bunds below 113.90 favoring the spread against US T-notes, despite surprisingly weak retail sales figures out of Germany today, noting that the inflation risk for long-term rates will prevail for the ECB over shorter-term indicators like retail sales. Commodities rallied handsomely on Friday but resistance levels remain capped, and Laureau notes $685/$688 as the level to beat in gold today. Failing a break of that key level, look for more downside in metals.
Francesco 221
Nuovo forumer
Per favore Gipa un commento su EUR/YEN circa l'articolo che hai postato.
Sono nei guai fino al collo se non scende a 162.
Ti ringrazio.
Sono nei guai fino al collo se non scende a 162.
Ti ringrazio.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Good afternoon a tout les bondaroles
dan ti presto il mia avatarro di riserva
col $ in caduta tutto il resto del mondo viene a mettere i soldi in EU, di ieri la notissiola che un arabo saudita si è preso il 3% della HSBC
dan ti presto il mia avatarro di riserva
col $ in caduta tutto il resto del mondo viene a mettere i soldi in EU, di ieri la notissiola che un arabo saudita si è preso il 3% della HSBC
dan24
Forumer storico
Fleursdumal ha scritto:Good afternoon a tout les bondaroles
dan ti presto il mia avatarro di riserva
col $ in caduta tutto il resto del mondo viene a mettere i soldi in EU, di ieri la notissiola che un arabo saudita si è preso il 3% della HSBC
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1178107309munch_2405.jpg
forse ti sei scordato che quel quazzo di quadro ce l'ho appeso sopra il camino a casa
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