Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
dan24
Forumer storico
feliceanima ha scritto:dan sei uscito indenne allora mi fa piacere io purtroppo aspetto l'apertura del certificato
yes e ci ho pure guadagnato qualche pips...
ha pulbaccato a 158,07 preciso allo sputo....ora vediamo se ha la forza di riportarsi sopra i 158,67....prox reistenza a 159 tondi...ieri ho veramente esagerato...come non mai...avevo la paresi al braccio...ero pure arrivato a 1.600.000 pezzi...poi sulla prima discesina 160000 pezzi li ho chiusi...mai più una esposizione simile....e soprattutto ho scazzato alla grande tutte le entrate...se scaglionavo meglio....avrei avuto un prezzo medio ben più alto di quello che avevo...
va be..mi ha graziato...e lo ringrazio
Leo's
Forumer storico
gastronomo
Forumer storico
dan24 ha scritto:va be..mi ha graziato...e lo ringrazio
Analisi onesta che ti fa onore e che può servire a molti come spunto di riflessione
dan24
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:'giorno
infatti avevo dimenticato le faccine
sai, sono mesi che entro venerdì "deve" ... ecc. ecc.
complimenti per il tuo trade notturno invece
più che complimenti...dovevi dire che KULO.....è la parola giusta....perchè se invece di pullbaccare stanotte in Japan succedeva qualcosa...e l'euro/yen andava a 161....stamani mi buttavo dall'8° piano.....sono andato contro la prima regola per chi opera sui derivati o in leva:
MAI OVER CON POSIZIONI DEL GENERE....1.440.000 pezzi....voleva dire più di 10K ogni figura contro....cioè come spararsi nelle palle da soli....
KULO...solo quello...ma ho imparato la lezione (fino alla prx volta..scherzo)
dan24
Forumer storico
4/4/07 16:00 Stati Uniti Ordini alle fabbriche Febbraio stima 1.9% ultimo -5.6%
4/4/07 16:00 Stati Uniti ISM (ex NAPM non manifatturiero) Marzo stima 54.7 54.3
4/4/07 16:30 Stati Uniti Scorte Petrolio
5/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Sussidi di disoccupazione 31/03 stima 320K ultimo 308K
6/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Occupazione (Settore non Agricolo) Marzo stima 135K ultimo 97K
6/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Disoccupazione (%) Marzo stima 4.6% ultimo 4.5%
6/4/07 16:00 Stati Uniti Scorte di magazzino all'ingrosso Febbraio stima 0.4% ultimo 0.7%
6/4/07 21:00 Stati Uniti Credito al consumo Febbraio stima $5.0B ultimo $6.4B
questi i dati da oggi fino a venerdì
4/4/07 16:00 Stati Uniti ISM (ex NAPM non manifatturiero) Marzo stima 54.7 54.3
4/4/07 16:30 Stati Uniti Scorte Petrolio
5/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Sussidi di disoccupazione 31/03 stima 320K ultimo 308K
6/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Occupazione (Settore non Agricolo) Marzo stima 135K ultimo 97K
6/4/07 14:30 Stati Uniti Disoccupazione (%) Marzo stima 4.6% ultimo 4.5%
6/4/07 16:00 Stati Uniti Scorte di magazzino all'ingrosso Febbraio stima 0.4% ultimo 0.7%
6/4/07 21:00 Stati Uniti Credito al consumo Febbraio stima $5.0B ultimo $6.4B
questi i dati da oggi fino a venerdì
gastronomo
Forumer storico
Barclays Says Yen to Drop to 125 on Hunt for Yield (Update3)
By Kosuke Goto
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will slump 5 percent this quarter, the worst start to a fiscal year since 1989, as Japanese invest more of their savings overseas, said Toru Umemoto, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Capital.
Individuals are seeking higher yields because the Bank of Japan may not raise its 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate until the third quarter, said Umemoto, the most-accurate yen forecaster last year in surveys by Bloomberg News. The currency will drop to 125 against the dollar, he said, the weakest since December 2002.
The yen has fallen against the 16 most-actively traded currencies over the past month, with the biggest losses suffered against those with higher yields such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Households gained confidence to invest overseas after Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in three years in the fourth quarter, said Umemoto.
``The yen's downtrend will continue as Japanese, who are fed up with low returns, will continue to export capital,'' Tokyo-based Umemoto said in an interview on April 2. ``Individuals will play the leading role.''
The Japanese currency traded at 118.87 per dollar at 3:40 p.m. in Tokyo from 118.96 late in New York yesterday. The yen is down 0.9 percent this week, the first of the fiscal year that started April 1.
Overseas assets held by Japanese households reached 46 trillion yen ($387.2 billion) in 2006, only 3 percent of their total financial holdings, based on Umemoto's own calculations.
Breathing Room
There is ``room for households to shift money from safe but low-return deposits to riskier, higher-return assets abroad,'' said Masafumi Yamamoto, a strategist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. ``The Japanese ratio at 3 percent does not look particularly high.''
Yamamoto is less bearish on the yen than his counterpart at Barclays, predicting the currency will fall to 119 a dollar by June 30. He said Japanese overseas holdings rose 27 percent last year from the previous year, citing data compiled by the Bank of Japan, monthly data from the Investment Trust Association Japan, and Citigroup's own estimates.
Japanese mutual funds boosted purchases of assets abroad to about 40 percent of the total from about 8 percent in 2002, according to the Investment Trust Association. The mutual funds now have about $244 billion of assets denominated in foreign currencies, including $98 billion in the U.S. dollar.
Higher Yields
The yen weakened 5.9 percent versus the New Zealand dollar and 5.3 percent against Australia's currency in the past month. Australian and New Zealand 10-year government bonds both offer a yield premium, or spread, of 4.20 percentage points over similar-maturity Japanese debt. Securities in Germany give an extra 2.4 points.
The ratio of Japanese household savings parked in banks and post offices accounted for about half of their total financial assets of 1,550 trillion yen, compared with 10 percent in the U.S. and 30 percent in Europe, Barclays' Umemoto said. That will continue to decrease as more funds go overseas, he said.
Credit Suisse and Fortis Bank were the two most bearish for the yen among 49 contributors to a Bloomberg survey last month, forecasting losses to 125 and 127 against the dollar this quarter. The median estimate was 117.
The yen gained 1 percent last quarter as some global funds exited carry trades, where they borrow and sell yen for better returns elsewhere, because of a global slump in stock markets. Local Japanese investors are taking their place with their own form of carry trade.
Individual Power
Japan is seeing a rise in so-called margin trading, where retail investors borrow part of the money necessary to buy currency, seeking to make a profit on price gains.
``The presence of foreign-exchange margin traders is increasing in Tokyo,'' said Kenichiro Yoshida, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Research Institute, a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``Younger generations such as in their 30s are trading currencies even by mobile phone.''
The yen may move between 115 and 122 a dollar this quarter, Yoshida said.
Life insurance companies used to play a major role in global financial markets in the late 1980s during Japan's asset- inflated bubble economy. Last year, individuals' foreign currency assets exceeded 40 trillion yen and topped those of life insurers, the Nikkei newspaper reported on March 31. That excludes the estimated amount of foreign-currency positions by Japanese foreign-exchange margin traders.
``We cannot ignore individual power,'' said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank in Tokyo. ``Japanese individuals account for about 20 percent to 30 percent of foreign-exchange margin trading in the Tokyo time zone. Institutional investors will lag behind households.''
The yen may fall to 122 a dollar by June 30, Muramatsu said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at [email protected] .
By Kosuke Goto
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will slump 5 percent this quarter, the worst start to a fiscal year since 1989, as Japanese invest more of their savings overseas, said Toru Umemoto, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Capital.
Individuals are seeking higher yields because the Bank of Japan may not raise its 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate until the third quarter, said Umemoto, the most-accurate yen forecaster last year in surveys by Bloomberg News. The currency will drop to 125 against the dollar, he said, the weakest since December 2002.
The yen has fallen against the 16 most-actively traded currencies over the past month, with the biggest losses suffered against those with higher yields such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Households gained confidence to invest overseas after Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in three years in the fourth quarter, said Umemoto.
``The yen's downtrend will continue as Japanese, who are fed up with low returns, will continue to export capital,'' Tokyo-based Umemoto said in an interview on April 2. ``Individuals will play the leading role.''
The Japanese currency traded at 118.87 per dollar at 3:40 p.m. in Tokyo from 118.96 late in New York yesterday. The yen is down 0.9 percent this week, the first of the fiscal year that started April 1.
Overseas assets held by Japanese households reached 46 trillion yen ($387.2 billion) in 2006, only 3 percent of their total financial holdings, based on Umemoto's own calculations.
Breathing Room
There is ``room for households to shift money from safe but low-return deposits to riskier, higher-return assets abroad,'' said Masafumi Yamamoto, a strategist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. ``The Japanese ratio at 3 percent does not look particularly high.''
Yamamoto is less bearish on the yen than his counterpart at Barclays, predicting the currency will fall to 119 a dollar by June 30. He said Japanese overseas holdings rose 27 percent last year from the previous year, citing data compiled by the Bank of Japan, monthly data from the Investment Trust Association Japan, and Citigroup's own estimates.
Japanese mutual funds boosted purchases of assets abroad to about 40 percent of the total from about 8 percent in 2002, according to the Investment Trust Association. The mutual funds now have about $244 billion of assets denominated in foreign currencies, including $98 billion in the U.S. dollar.
Higher Yields
The yen weakened 5.9 percent versus the New Zealand dollar and 5.3 percent against Australia's currency in the past month. Australian and New Zealand 10-year government bonds both offer a yield premium, or spread, of 4.20 percentage points over similar-maturity Japanese debt. Securities in Germany give an extra 2.4 points.
The ratio of Japanese household savings parked in banks and post offices accounted for about half of their total financial assets of 1,550 trillion yen, compared with 10 percent in the U.S. and 30 percent in Europe, Barclays' Umemoto said. That will continue to decrease as more funds go overseas, he said.
Credit Suisse and Fortis Bank were the two most bearish for the yen among 49 contributors to a Bloomberg survey last month, forecasting losses to 125 and 127 against the dollar this quarter. The median estimate was 117.
The yen gained 1 percent last quarter as some global funds exited carry trades, where they borrow and sell yen for better returns elsewhere, because of a global slump in stock markets. Local Japanese investors are taking their place with their own form of carry trade.
Individual Power
Japan is seeing a rise in so-called margin trading, where retail investors borrow part of the money necessary to buy currency, seeking to make a profit on price gains.
``The presence of foreign-exchange margin traders is increasing in Tokyo,'' said Kenichiro Yoshida, a senior economist and currency analyst in Tokyo at Mizuho Research Institute, a unit of Japan's second-largest lender by assets. ``Younger generations such as in their 30s are trading currencies even by mobile phone.''
The yen may move between 115 and 122 a dollar this quarter, Yoshida said.
Life insurance companies used to play a major role in global financial markets in the late 1980s during Japan's asset- inflated bubble economy. Last year, individuals' foreign currency assets exceeded 40 trillion yen and topped those of life insurers, the Nikkei newspaper reported on March 31. That excludes the estimated amount of foreign-currency positions by Japanese foreign-exchange margin traders.
``We cannot ignore individual power,'' said Ryohei Muramatsu, manager of Group Treasury Asia at Commerzbank in Tokyo. ``Japanese individuals account for about 20 percent to 30 percent of foreign-exchange margin trading in the Tokyo time zone. Institutional investors will lag behind households.''
The yen may fall to 122 a dollar by June 30, Muramatsu said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at [email protected] .
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