Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Rather than being a difficult time for the individual investor because of the proliferation of hedge funds, I find the current times very favorable for the individual investor because of available information no better exemplified than by the UBS graphs and charts in Wednesday's site. Us humanoids can only deal with probabilities based on past market behaviour which is another way of saying past human behavior. We have charts and graphs to help us along. If not for these we would be dealing with no more than a coin toss. The UBS article on the current correction gives us some irrefutable evidence. In the last 3 years all U.S. corrections of any significance (none that significant) have been accompanied by Yen strength, tightening emerging market bond spreads and net emerging market selling in the U.S. Futhermore, each of them has involved some retracement before continuing to a climax. Most are ABC but early 04 seems like an ABCDE. Futhermore, the early 04 correction comes after a strong uptrend commencing in August 03 that is very similar to the recent uptrend beginning in August 06. Based on this information I believe it is fair to make the following deductions. (1) Watch the action in the Yen and Emerging Bond markets. (2) It would be surprising, albeit always possible, for this correction to be over without some retracement and some retesting or more serious damage. This is especially true because the weekly bar is the most severe of any in the last 3 years. Again, these are only probabilities based on past performance, but what else do we have? To me, it also implies that this may not be about China or Subprime Mortgages, but about a mini correction of an overheated market that needs a rest. Only if it turns into something worse would it have an economic or political root cause. More than likely it sets up a nice buying opportunity after it plays out. Just my opinion."
gengiskan
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:
ciao a tutti
allora, come siete messi?
novita?
io sono sempre corto su giugno da 40100 adesso batte 40045
mi ci faccio una pizza poco piu'
per il resto rimango della mia idea
risalita fino a 41250 e poi giu' a 39000 prima e 38000 poi
oppure
giu' da qesti livelli senza tornare a 41000 fino a 39000 e poi risalita
fino a 43000 44000 per la fine dell'anno e il 2008 anno dell'apocalisse
lo si rivede a 35000, ma piu' in la si va con le analisi e piu' mi sembra che
siano le previsioni del tempo sulla luna, indi percui stop a pari o poco sopra
(tanto non lo metterò mai) e pedalare come dice il fernando.
a dopo se posso
Leo's
Forumer storico
gengiskan ha scritto:
e si, dal tuo grafico sembrerebbe valida la 2°ipotesi (discesa senza prima salire... )
per il resto, vedo che l'eur(yen è sempre li, nun se move di un millimetro, li mortacci sua ...
sentite, dall'altro lato (sezione forum piazza affari) stanno organizzando una cena... andate a dire la vostra (io già fatto), così ci vediamo tutti a breve
Similar threads
