Bund, Tbond e la grossa coda gialla......(V.M. 77 anni)
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
masgui
Forumer storico
leo-kondor ha scritto:dicevo io! ho telefonato e mi hanno abilitato ai mini lotti di 10.000 ... e che ne sapevo io che dovevo richiedere una nuova password ecc. ecc.?
però era più bello col lotto grande, ho macinato pipps e nessuna perdita finora ...
sul forex la posizione standard è 100.000 euro. Posizioni da 10.000 euro, dollari, gpb appartengono a piattaforme mini (miniforex), molto più comode da gestire, ma non è lo standard.
Pips o pippes????
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Transcript: George Soros interview
Published: March 7 2007 16:55 | Last updated: March 7 2007 16:55
Chrystia Freeland, FT US Managing Editor and FT reporter James Politi, interviewed George Soros in New York on March 6. This is an edited transcript of the interview.
FT: Thank you for joining us, Mr Soros.
ADVERTISEMENT
GS: Pleasure.
FT: We’re speaking at a moment of a lot of turbulence in the markets. What’s your explanation for what’s happening?
GS: I think there are several factors but, very important, is the carry trade, the fact that the yen is basically interest free and a lot of money is coming from borrowing and a lot of Japanese money going abroad. And the yen was weakening so a lot of people got into that trade and there’s a little bit of a shake-up going on.
FT: With the appreciation of the yen?
GS: That’s right. I mean the appreciation of the yen shows that there is a shake-out. Now, behind it you have got the slowdown in the US economy, the housing situation where you haven’t yet seen the total effect of the slowdown. It’s still halfway through. So will that actually result in a significant slowdown in consumer spending? That is yet to be seen because you have had mortgage equity withdrawals of nearly $900bn a year. Now it has fallen to $300bn and it basically will disappear. And that will affect consumer spending.
Now, as the US slows down, the emerging markets are still going very strong, China and India, so you will actually go back to a more balanced economy with more growth abroad and correcting the deficit. But that will see less liquidity in the market because it’s really the trading balance creating the same trillion dollars of Chinese reserves and similar amounts in other countries. That has actually fed this global liquidity splurge.
FT: What impact will that drawing up of liquidity have?
GS: It will have an effect on the market and I don’t think that we are in any way nearer a crash. But it’s a warning crack.
FT: What sort of an impact do you think the emerging markets have had on the events of the past week? Some people have attributed the beginnings of people’s worries to a sharp drop in Shanghai.
GS: Well, it did start in China and the Chinese market was rising at an unsustainable rate and the authorities did want to slow it down. But, on the other hand, they don’t want it to fall out of bed either so I think that you’ve had that sort of initial impulse and I think the Chinese market will be kept on an even keel, certainly until after the Olympics.
FT: Another area where some people have felt that we might be reaching some sort of a bubble is in private equity where we’ve seen one record after another broken. What do you think is happening there?
GS: Both hedge funds and private equity funds play a much more important role in the market and they introduce leverage. And that leverage is based then on the cheapest source of financing, which is currently in Japan, so that is the liquidity bubble we are talking about.
FT: So, if we see further appreciation of the yen, what kind of impact will that have?
GS: Obviously it would lead to an unwinding but I don’t think it’s going to get out of hand right now.
FT: Another area where you’ve been very active is American politics and you came out as an early supporter of Barack Obama. Why did you decide to back him?
GS: I think that he brings a fresh voice into the political arena. He’s a sort of transformational figure that could really help America leave behind and correct the errors that the Bush Administration has made. So I think he would be a terrific candidate but it doesn’t mean that Hillary wouldn’t make a very good president. So my support of Barack Obama is in no way in opposition to Hillary. I would be very happy with her as president as well.
FT: But it does imply that you think that he would be better than she would be.
GS: I think he would bring a fresher voice and I think that his entry is already improving the presidential debate, and I think that, whatever the outcome, it will strengthen the Democratic field.
FT: Some people, including former strong supporters of the Clintons, have talked about Clinton fatigue and that it is time for fresh voices in the Democratic party. Do you agree with that?
GS: I think that we need fresh voices, yes. I think we need to leave behind the involvement with the Iraq war and I think we need to actually question the war on terror because that’s where we really went off the rails. And I think Barack Obama is in the better position to do this than anybody who has actually been on the scene at the time. So we do need a fresh voice; that’s why I’m supporting him.
FT: What about the war in Iraq? What’s the right policy for America now and also for the Democratic Party?
GS: Well, I’m afraid that the situation in Iraq is out of our control. We have messed it up and we are not in really a position to correct it. So we have to extricate ourselves with the least possible damage and then we have to pay a lot more attention to the Palestine problem, which is still solveable. There is the makings of a peace settlement, even at this late stage, or exactly because we are at this late stage because Saudi Arabia feels also very much threatened by the rise of Iran is very much concerned about having a peace settlement guaranteed by the Arab neighbours. So that’s an offer on the table that needs to be picked up and I’m afraid there is some resistance here to doing so.
FT:Resistance here in the United States?
GS: Yes, because there is this frame of the war on terror and Hamas as a terrorist organisation that you can’t accept as part of the Palestinian government and you can’t have a peace in Palestine without Hamas because Hamas, if it’s not part of that settlement, is bound to destroy it. So you must deal with Hamas and I think we are in the process of committing a blunder, similar to the blunder of going into Iraq, by not accepting Hamas as a negotiating partner.
FT: I’d also like to ask you about Russia, a place that you’ve had a long involvement with. How worried should we be by the increasingly forceful attitude that we’re seeing from Russia towards its immediate neighbours, but also towards Europe and the world more generally?
GS: I think we have to recognise that Russia is an emerging important petrol superpower that is using its natural resources as a way of re-establishing its power and influence in the world, maintaining the rulers of the Kremlin in power and also using the control over the pipelines to bribe the neighbouring countries to submit their gas reserves to the control of Gazprom. So this is the reality and the Kremlin has become much more aggressive in this pursuit of policies than it had been when it was the centre of the Soviet Union because the Soviet Union consisted of bureaucrats who were risk averse. The people who are in power now, they are adventurers - that’s how they got there. And therefore they are prepared to follow adventurous policies.
So Europe, in particular, needs to get its act together and develop a unified front in negotiating with Russia because otherwise Russia has the monopoly power through its control of a sufficient portion of the gas supplies and is using that as a monopoly power.
FT: Thank you very much.
GS: Pleasure.
And now the prediction:
GS: I would say that we will not take military action against Iran, that reason will prevail and we will refrain from doing something that will be very, very counterproductive.
Published: March 7 2007 16:55 | Last updated: March 7 2007 16:55
Chrystia Freeland, FT US Managing Editor and FT reporter James Politi, interviewed George Soros in New York on March 6. This is an edited transcript of the interview.
FT: Thank you for joining us, Mr Soros.
ADVERTISEMENT
GS: Pleasure.
FT: We’re speaking at a moment of a lot of turbulence in the markets. What’s your explanation for what’s happening?
GS: I think there are several factors but, very important, is the carry trade, the fact that the yen is basically interest free and a lot of money is coming from borrowing and a lot of Japanese money going abroad. And the yen was weakening so a lot of people got into that trade and there’s a little bit of a shake-up going on.
FT: With the appreciation of the yen?
GS: That’s right. I mean the appreciation of the yen shows that there is a shake-out. Now, behind it you have got the slowdown in the US economy, the housing situation where you haven’t yet seen the total effect of the slowdown. It’s still halfway through. So will that actually result in a significant slowdown in consumer spending? That is yet to be seen because you have had mortgage equity withdrawals of nearly $900bn a year. Now it has fallen to $300bn and it basically will disappear. And that will affect consumer spending.
Now, as the US slows down, the emerging markets are still going very strong, China and India, so you will actually go back to a more balanced economy with more growth abroad and correcting the deficit. But that will see less liquidity in the market because it’s really the trading balance creating the same trillion dollars of Chinese reserves and similar amounts in other countries. That has actually fed this global liquidity splurge.
FT: What impact will that drawing up of liquidity have?
GS: It will have an effect on the market and I don’t think that we are in any way nearer a crash. But it’s a warning crack.
FT: What sort of an impact do you think the emerging markets have had on the events of the past week? Some people have attributed the beginnings of people’s worries to a sharp drop in Shanghai.
GS: Well, it did start in China and the Chinese market was rising at an unsustainable rate and the authorities did want to slow it down. But, on the other hand, they don’t want it to fall out of bed either so I think that you’ve had that sort of initial impulse and I think the Chinese market will be kept on an even keel, certainly until after the Olympics.
FT: Another area where some people have felt that we might be reaching some sort of a bubble is in private equity where we’ve seen one record after another broken. What do you think is happening there?
GS: Both hedge funds and private equity funds play a much more important role in the market and they introduce leverage. And that leverage is based then on the cheapest source of financing, which is currently in Japan, so that is the liquidity bubble we are talking about.
FT: So, if we see further appreciation of the yen, what kind of impact will that have?
GS: Obviously it would lead to an unwinding but I don’t think it’s going to get out of hand right now.
FT: Another area where you’ve been very active is American politics and you came out as an early supporter of Barack Obama. Why did you decide to back him?
GS: I think that he brings a fresh voice into the political arena. He’s a sort of transformational figure that could really help America leave behind and correct the errors that the Bush Administration has made. So I think he would be a terrific candidate but it doesn’t mean that Hillary wouldn’t make a very good president. So my support of Barack Obama is in no way in opposition to Hillary. I would be very happy with her as president as well.
FT: But it does imply that you think that he would be better than she would be.
GS: I think he would bring a fresher voice and I think that his entry is already improving the presidential debate, and I think that, whatever the outcome, it will strengthen the Democratic field.
FT: Some people, including former strong supporters of the Clintons, have talked about Clinton fatigue and that it is time for fresh voices in the Democratic party. Do you agree with that?
GS: I think that we need fresh voices, yes. I think we need to leave behind the involvement with the Iraq war and I think we need to actually question the war on terror because that’s where we really went off the rails. And I think Barack Obama is in the better position to do this than anybody who has actually been on the scene at the time. So we do need a fresh voice; that’s why I’m supporting him.
FT: What about the war in Iraq? What’s the right policy for America now and also for the Democratic Party?
GS: Well, I’m afraid that the situation in Iraq is out of our control. We have messed it up and we are not in really a position to correct it. So we have to extricate ourselves with the least possible damage and then we have to pay a lot more attention to the Palestine problem, which is still solveable. There is the makings of a peace settlement, even at this late stage, or exactly because we are at this late stage because Saudi Arabia feels also very much threatened by the rise of Iran is very much concerned about having a peace settlement guaranteed by the Arab neighbours. So that’s an offer on the table that needs to be picked up and I’m afraid there is some resistance here to doing so.
FT:Resistance here in the United States?
GS: Yes, because there is this frame of the war on terror and Hamas as a terrorist organisation that you can’t accept as part of the Palestinian government and you can’t have a peace in Palestine without Hamas because Hamas, if it’s not part of that settlement, is bound to destroy it. So you must deal with Hamas and I think we are in the process of committing a blunder, similar to the blunder of going into Iraq, by not accepting Hamas as a negotiating partner.
FT: I’d also like to ask you about Russia, a place that you’ve had a long involvement with. How worried should we be by the increasingly forceful attitude that we’re seeing from Russia towards its immediate neighbours, but also towards Europe and the world more generally?
GS: I think we have to recognise that Russia is an emerging important petrol superpower that is using its natural resources as a way of re-establishing its power and influence in the world, maintaining the rulers of the Kremlin in power and also using the control over the pipelines to bribe the neighbouring countries to submit their gas reserves to the control of Gazprom. So this is the reality and the Kremlin has become much more aggressive in this pursuit of policies than it had been when it was the centre of the Soviet Union because the Soviet Union consisted of bureaucrats who were risk averse. The people who are in power now, they are adventurers - that’s how they got there. And therefore they are prepared to follow adventurous policies.
So Europe, in particular, needs to get its act together and develop a unified front in negotiating with Russia because otherwise Russia has the monopoly power through its control of a sufficient portion of the gas supplies and is using that as a monopoly power.
FT: Thank you very much.
GS: Pleasure.
And now the prediction:
GS: I would say that we will not take military action against Iran, that reason will prevail and we will refrain from doing something that will be very, very counterproductive.
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