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1. Everything We Never Wanted to Know About Ecuador and Never Really Thought to Ask
Ah, Ecuador. Do you know Ecuador? Do you really know Ecuador? Yes, Ecuador, the former Inca Empire. The birthplace of Atahualpa, last of the Incan Emperors, worshiper of Mama Pacha, the fertility goddess known as "Mother Earth." Its capital, Quito - actually, and officially, San Francisco de Quito - sprawls northward among the Guayllabamba River basin on the eastern slopes of the Pichincha, barely south of the equator; literally, la mitad del mundo - the middle of the world.
Yes, well, despite all that they're still probably going to default on their global bond payments.
President Rafael Correa’s administration on Monday postponed a key ruling on a referendum on constitutional reform, the Financial Times reported.
As a result - and as was widely expected - Ecuador will fail to pay a $135 million coupon on its 2030 global bonds, due this Thursday.
Although Quito has indicated it will make the interest payment within a 30-day grace period, worries are growing that the country may default on some or all of the country's $10.2 billion in foreign debt.
Although Deputy Finance Minister Fausto Ortiz said the government will make the full payment by mid-March, the country may simply be stalling for time ahead of President Correa's presentation of a debt restructuring plan.
The FT noted this morning that there have been few sovereign debt defaults in recent years following Argentina's record-breaking default on about $100 billion in debt in 2001.
A default by Ecuador could reawaken investor risk premiums associated with emerging markets.
2. Emerging Markets Risk Premium?
Did you say emerging markets risk premium? What risk premium? There isn't any risk premium.
OK, well, there's a small risk premium. But a very, very small risk premium.
JP Morgan’s EMBI+ index currently shows emerging market debt just 168 basis points more than comparable US Treasury bonds, not far from an all-time low.
Ah, Ecuador. Do you know Ecuador? Do you really know Ecuador? Yes, Ecuador, the former Inca Empire. The birthplace of Atahualpa, last of the Incan Emperors, worshiper of Mama Pacha, the fertility goddess known as "Mother Earth." Its capital, Quito - actually, and officially, San Francisco de Quito - sprawls northward among the Guayllabamba River basin on the eastern slopes of the Pichincha, barely south of the equator; literally, la mitad del mundo - the middle of the world.
Yes, well, despite all that they're still probably going to default on their global bond payments.
President Rafael Correa’s administration on Monday postponed a key ruling on a referendum on constitutional reform, the Financial Times reported.
As a result - and as was widely expected - Ecuador will fail to pay a $135 million coupon on its 2030 global bonds, due this Thursday.
Although Quito has indicated it will make the interest payment within a 30-day grace period, worries are growing that the country may default on some or all of the country's $10.2 billion in foreign debt.
Although Deputy Finance Minister Fausto Ortiz said the government will make the full payment by mid-March, the country may simply be stalling for time ahead of President Correa's presentation of a debt restructuring plan.
The FT noted this morning that there have been few sovereign debt defaults in recent years following Argentina's record-breaking default on about $100 billion in debt in 2001.
A default by Ecuador could reawaken investor risk premiums associated with emerging markets.
2. Emerging Markets Risk Premium?
Did you say emerging markets risk premium? What risk premium? There isn't any risk premium.
OK, well, there's a small risk premium. But a very, very small risk premium.
JP Morgan’s EMBI+ index currently shows emerging market debt just 168 basis points more than comparable US Treasury bonds, not far from an all-time low.