ECONOMIC RELEASES
April 16: Retail Sales – March retail sales were better-than-expected, with headline sales rising 0.7% and sales excluding autos rising 0.8%.
Business Inventories – US business inventories rose 0.3% in March, slightly more than expected, despite declines in auto and parts inventory.
Empire State Index – The business activity index rose slightly in April to 3.8 from 1.9 in March. The details—which are separate from the overall index—showed further weakness: new orders were nearly unchanged, while shipments and employment declined.
April 17: Consumer Price Index – Core consumer prices, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.1%, less than expected. Headline consumer prices rose 0.6%, in line with expectations, as food and energy prices continue to put upward pressure on inflation.
Housing Starts – Housing starts unexpectedly rose 0.8% during March. Building permits also rose 0.8% during the month.
Industrial Production - Industrial production fell 0.2% in March, while capacity utilization slipped from 81.6% to 81.4%.
April 19: Leading Indicators – After a 0.6% decline in February, leading indicators rose 0.1% in March. Much of the change in the index of the last two months has been led by the initial claims for unemployment component, which spiked in February and then receded.
Philly Fed Index – The Philadelphia Fed index, which surveys regional economic activity, came in at 0.2 in April, unchanged from a weak 0.2 in March. Most economists had expected a rebound.
COMMENTARY
Overview
This week, data on inflation, housing and retail sales provided a picture of what happened in the first quarter. First, after last week’s double-dose of inflation data (import prices and PPI), the market focused on Tuesday’s consumer price index (CPI) release. March headline consumer prices were in line with expectations (+0.6%), but core CPI, which excludes energy and food prices, rose less-than-expected (+0.1% vs. +0.2%). Smoothing out the monthly fluctuations, year-to-year core CPI has eased to 2.5% from a peak of 2.9% in September 2006. Interestingly, core and headline CPI are diverging. Core inflation continues to recede in line with slowing domestic economic growth while internationally traded goods (like food and energy) continue to push up headline prices as global growth remains strong. Second, retail sales came in stronger than expected, up 0.7% in March. Easter and a longer reporting period may have played a role in boosting sales. But, “retail control,” which is calculated as real (inflation-adjusted) retails sales excluding gas, autos and building materials, was actually slightly negative for the month. Retail control feeds directly into the national accounts data for the GDP calculation, suggesting that consumer spending and economic growth were softer in the first quarter.
On the housing market watch, the media and some economists trumpeted the “positive” news that housing starts rebounded (up 0.8%) in March. However, the rebound in March starts comes after a downward revision to February’s starts data. Further, “units under construction” and “completions” are now down 26% and 16%, respectively, on a year-to-year basis. We knew homebuilders slowed the pace of new construction, but now we are seeing the lagged effects on projects that were still in progress. As the projects in the pipeline are finished, we may see increased weakness in construction payrolls.
US MARKETS
Treasury Bonds
After trading off roughly 30 basis points in 10-year bonds over the last month, the market has rallied about seven basis points in the past week. We saw lower yields Thursday morning as the market rallied on overseas equity weakness and softer economic data. However, we came off the highs when the market reached strong resistance levels and sellers came into the market. Curves are steeper from last week, with the yield curve between the two-year Treasury note and the 10-year Treasury note almost three basis points steeper on the week.
The US Treasury announced the next fiver-year TIPS auction will be $8 billion, slightly less than the $9 billion expected. The auction comes next Tuesday, April 24th. The Treasury will also announce and auction two and five-year Treasuries next week.
Large-Cap Equities
The equity markets were strong gainers this week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 and Russell 1000 Index both gained over 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached all time highs this week, breaking through 12,800 and closing in on 13,000 behind solid first quarter earnings announcements. Small cap stocks underperformed large cap stocks this week gaining nearly 1%. In terms of style, large cap growth stocks and large cap value stocks performed in line with one another. The best performing sector was financials, (driven largely by takeover rumors) and the worst performing sector was energy. Earnings of technology companies have been mixed; Google (GOOG) reported positive earnings that beat estimates at the expense of Yahoo (YHOO), whose shares fell 13% after first quarter sales and earnings disappointed. Another notable name this week is SLM Corp. (SLM). The nation’s largest student loan company, commonly known as “Sallie Mae,” accepted a buyout offer of $25 billion from an investor group led by J.C. Flowers & Company. Shares of the company, rising 15% on buyout speculation, rose another 18% on the news.
Corporate Bonds
Investment grade primary activity was on the back burner this week as LBO headlines and earnings took center stage. Sallie Mae accepted a $25 billion acquisition offer from a consortium of buyers, which caused spreads to widen 50 to 60 basis points. This news also trumped the start of a heavy earnings week, which thus far has been more positive than negative. The only notable deal this week was from Union Pacific, a rail transportation provider, who came to the market with a two-tranche $500mm deal split evenly between ten and thirty year which priced at 93 basis points over 10-year Treasuries and 123 basis points over 30-year Treasuries. Most of the market’s attention this week as been on Sallie Mae and whether or not they will remain investment grade after the acquisition.
Investment grade corporate spreads maintained the current course and grinded tighter throughout the week, despite individual name volatility. Sallie Mae commanded the lion’s share of this weeks trading after accepting a $25 billion acquisition offer from a consortium of buyers. Sallie Mae spreads initially gapped out 50-60 basis points, but have since tightened due to investor’s interest in shorter dated securities. The LBO rumor machine continued this week as Heinz and Southwest Airlines were thrown in the mix causing spreads to widen. The Lehman Corporate Index OAS remained unchanged at +91. Telecom/cable/media remained unchanged; utilities tightened by one; industrial widened by one; and financials widened by two basis points.
Mortgage-Backed Securities
Mortgages lagged Treasuries on supply, interest rate concerns, and commercial bank selling. Mortgage net supply has been surprisingly robust for both fixed rate and adjustable rate mortgage products. The recent slide in yields has offered borrowers another opportunity to refinance their adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) into historically attractive fixed rate mortgage loans. This is evident by the strong growth in the latest affordability product, 30-year fixed-rate interest only mortgages. In addition, increased securitization of adjustable rate loans from commercial bank portfolios has also led to a pickup in ARM production. For the week, mortgage spreads leaked wider by one-to-three basis points with the 30-year current coupon spread closing at 112 basis points versus the 10-year Treasury.
Municipal Bonds
The municipal yield curve flattened this week, with 2-year yields unchanged and 30-year yields declining 9 basis points. The long-term bonds benefited from Tuesday’s CPI report while the front end faced pressure from the April personal income tax payment deadline. Selling activity out of money market funds increased as investors raised cash to pay their taxes. As a result, tax-exempt overnight rates rose 25 basis points over the last 2 weeks.
Municipalities sold over $6 billion in new issuance, with Puerto Rico’s Electric Power Authority leading the way. The authority sold nearly $2 billion in a variety of structures including fixed and floating rate coupons and insured and uninsured bonds. The A3/BBB+ rated term bond in 2037 offered the maximum yield at 4.42%.
High-Yield Bonds
The high yield market generated a strong performance this week, with generally solid earnings news and the continuing equity rally helping performance. Most of the bellwether high yield issuers have not yet reported earnings but based on the earnings report for the Fortune 1000 companies, the expectation is that earnings in the High Yield space should exhibit a positive trend. The performance in the High Yield market was also aided by the relative paucity of new issuance, with just a little over $800 million in two energy deals (Energy Partners and Cimarex) pricing this week. The forward calendar stands at over $4 billion, including the $700 million bond financing for the $3.2 billion leveraged buyout of Outback Steakhouse (OSI) by a private equity consortium led Bain Capital.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
Western European Equities
Western Europe’s equity markets continued their upward trend for yet another week. Both the banking (+3.8%) and technology (+3.6%) sectors fared very well. A major contributor was Societe Generale, the second-biggest bank of France, whose shares jumped 20.11% to a record high, based on speculation among traders and investors that Italy’s UniCredit SpA will offer to buy Societe Generale SA at market value. Shares of BNP Paribas SA (+7.97%) also benefited. In technology, the largest maker of semiconductor equipment of Europe, ASML Holding (+8.19%), announced first-quarter profits on Wednesday, and an increase in sales of 53% for the period compared to last year. Shares of Nokia (6.1%) and SAP (5.4%) rose as well following the publication of positive first-quarter reports.
The utilities (+0.3%) and oil & gas (-0.1%) sectors came in at the bottom. Shares of RWE AG lost 3.9%, as the planned IPO of its American Water Works Inc. unit may be delayed. On the other hand, RWE’s shares traded without the right to a dividend of 3.50 euros. After Enagas SA announced that it will increase debt to boost investment, its share price declined -3.7%. In oil & gas, shares of Acergy fell 3.1% after posting weaker-than-expected first-quarter results. The group's operating and pre-tax profit figures were below analysts’ expectations.
Eastern European Equities
Stocks in Eastern Europe had a mixed showing this week. The CECE Index traded in Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) gained +3.2%, while the Russian dollar RTS index lost ground after breaking through the 2,000 index level for the first time in its history last week, finishing down -1.5%.
In Central Europe, shares of Hungarian OTP bank (+9%) led the way, followed by Hungarian Magyar Telecom (+8.5%) and Polish oil company Lotos (+8.4%). OTP’s stock rallied after company CEO Csanyi gave optimistic growth expectation for the company’s medium term growth, making the company one of Europe’s top 25 leading banks. By 2010, the company is expected to get 50% of its revenues from abroad, Mr. Csanyi forecasted. Among the companies that lost ground were Polish biotech company Bioton (-5.1%), media company Agora (-3.9%), and telecommunications company Netia (-2.2%). Shares of Bioton suffered after news came out that a North American competitor in the insulin business has discovered an alternative production method. In Russia, the market took a breather after last week’s strong rally. Energy company Gazprom (-3.9%), energy generator and distributor UES (-3.6%), and telecommunications company Severo-Zapadnyi Telekom (-3.4%) lost ground, while oil transporter Transneft (+7.6%), oil company Tatneft (+6.3%), and retail company Magnit (+6.2%) gained the most. Net profit at one of Russia’s largest discount retailers was up 58.2% in dollar terms for the first quarter of 2007.
Global Bonds and Currencies
European investment grade government bonds advanced this week, ending a four-week losing streak after yields neared a two and a half year high. The European Central Bank did however reinforce its stance on interest rates, saying that monetary policy continues to be on the accommodative side. The yield on the benchmark 10-year German bund was down three basis points for the week to 4.20%. In the U.K., inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.1% in March, which was the fastest pace in more than 10 years and more than a full percentage point above the Bank’s 2 percent target rate. Two-year gilts sold off three basis points and are yielding 5.52%.
In currency markets, the dollar weakened against the majors as the U.S. CPI report came in softer than the market had been anticipating. Additionally, U.K. inflation data and a strong GDP number out of China gave further support to both the British pound and Asian currencies versus the “greenback”. The USD is currently trading at 1.36 versus the euro (1.352 last Friday), 118.84 versus the Japanese yen (119.45 - last Friday), and 2.003 versus the British pound (1.984- last Friday).
Emerging-Market Bonds
Emerging market dollar-pay spreads tightened this week, as global risk appetite remains strong. In Brazil, the central bank lowered the benchmark lending rate to a record low 12.5% on Wednesday as consumer prices have been rising at the slowest pace in eight years. Brazil's central bank reduced rates for a 15th straight time as a rally in the country's currency drove down costs for imports and kept consumer prices in check.
Equity prices in China dropped sharply after the release of stronger-than-expected March consumer prices first quarter GDP and fixed asset investments. The data appear to have triggered some investor concerns of monetary tightening measures to rein back growth. In Russia, foreign exchange reserves rose $10.3 billion last week to $357 billion. This is more than 40% higher than the amount of foreign exchange reserves accumulated over the same period in 2006 and suggests a further rise in money supply and inflation in the upcoming months.
International Real Estate
The global real estate markets were somewhat volatile this week, ending on a generally positive note. Japan led the way with weekly performance of 3.32%. Mitsubishi Estate Co., Japan’s largest property developer, commented on raising office rents by 10% over the next two years given strong office market demand and very low vacancies. Housing prices in Singapore had the largest quarterly gain in seven years, allowing developers to sell apartments at record prices. Growth also continues in Singapore’s retail market with recent large acquisitions by CapitaMall and parent, CapitaLand, the city-state’s largest real-estate company. US office rents rose 11% for the first quarter and vacancies dropped to lowest levels since 2001. Largest rent increases were in New York City, San Francisco and Boston.
FACTORS SHAPING THE MARKET NEXT WEEK
Next week in the US we’ll see the advanced estimate for first quarter gross domestic product. The advanced print is expected in the 2%-range, meaning the US economy has experienced four consecutive quarters of growth below its long-term potential.
Next week in the EuroZone, data will be released on the current account and industrial orders. The first estimate of first quarter gross domestic product will be released in the United Kingdom.
NEXT WEEK'S US ECONOMIC RELEASES
April 24: Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales
April 25: Durable Goods, New Home Sales
April 27: Advanced Estimate First Quarter Gross Domestic Product, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Final), Employment Cost Index (ECI)