Interessante articolo che mostra in realtà il reale aspetto dell'economia attuale.
La Cina produce comunque a margini molto bassi in molti comparti manufatturieri ed eventuali aprrezzamenti dello Yuan significativi (cioè quelli aspettati dagli USA) porterebbero a reali problemi economici e forse anche sociali.
Paulson May Be Unable to Get China, U.S. Off Collision Course
By Matthew Benjamin
April 23 (Bloomberg) -- When China allowed a small rise in the value of its currency in 2005, Hangzhou food-company executive Wang Yuzhou saw his profits squeezed. Any further move threatens the livelihoods of his 1,000 workers and the 5,000 rural households that supply his plants, he says.
John Walker says China's currency policies have already cost 100 jobs at his Lewisburg, Tennessee, die-casting company. He wants the U.S. Congress to do ``whatever it takes'' to force an increase in an undervalued yuan that he contends gives an unfair advantage to Chinese competitors.
Wang's and Walker's interests collide next month when U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Vice Premier Wu Yi hold their next set of talks under a semiannual schedule set up last year. Without steps to allow a significant increase in the yuan, which most economists consider unlikely, Paulson may not be able to continue holding off moves in Congress to punish China.
``After years of talk and bluster, protectionism no longer seems like an empty threat,'' says Stephen Roach, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley in New York. ``Trade sanctions against China are now all but inevitable.''
Exports, which accounted for about 40 percent of China's economy last year, bring growth, jobs and stability that compel the nation's leaders to avoid any dramatic rise in the yuan, says Don Straszheim, vice chairman of Newport Beach, California- based Roth Capital Partners.
Central to the Strategy
``The weak currency is central to China's whole growth strategy,'' says Straszheim, who specializes in China's economy. ``They are going to take their chances and move as slowly as they possibly can.'' China's textile industry says it loses 8.2 billion yuan ($1.1 billion) of annual profit for each percentage point rise in the currency.
Until now, Paulson, 61, has demonstrated sympathy for China's predicament and has headed off sanctions with promises of slow but steady progress on yuan appreciation. That may no longer be possible with a weakened President George W. Bush, a new Congress controlled by Democrats and a presidential campaign already under way.
``Paulson has less space in which to maneuver,'' says Charlene Barshefsky, U.S. trade representative under former President Bill Clinton.
Rising Yuan
Since China scrapped a fixed exchange rate in July 2005, the yuan has gained 7.2 percent against the dollar. It will rise 4 percent this year, predicts Jan Lambregts, head of research at Rabobank International in Hong Kong.
U.S. lawmakers say that isn't enough. Two senators predicted on March 28 that unless China allows a significant increase, Congress will approve sanctions by next year.
``Strong and effective legislation is likely to pass with a veto-proof margin,'' says Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, who is co-sponsoring a sanctions bill with South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham. Overriding a presidential veto requires two-thirds majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives.
``There is a clear sense of frustration with China in political circles and among industries around America,'' Paulson told the Committee of 100, a group of U.S. citizens of Chinese descent, in a speech April 20 in New York. ``We and our Chinese counterparts are looking for tangible results,'' he said. ``Time is of the essence.''
Jagdish Bhagwati, an economics professor at Columbia University, says he expects a ``modest'' increase in the yuan following Paulson's May 22-24 meetings with Wu, 68.
Protectionist measures have already gone beyond threats. In March, the U.S., alleging illegal subsidies, slapped duties on glossy paper from China, opening the way for textile producers, steelmakers and others to seek similar protections.
Filing Complaints
This month, the U.S. filed complaints at the World Trade Organization, alleging Chinese piracy of copyrighted movies, music, software and books. And the currency issue may provoke the most extreme measures yet.
Schumer's office cites analysis by Morris Goldstein at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. Goldstein estimates the yuan is 40 percent undervalued against the dollar and calls for an immediate 10 to 15 percent appreciation, followed by further increases.
``They cannot continue spitting in the ocean by doing these tiny little movements,'' says Goldstein. ``They need to make a significant down payment to show they're serious about dealing with this problem.''
Even that wouldn't satisfy Walker, 54, president of Walker Die Casting. Low-priced Chinese castings are flooding the market and taking business from his firm, he says. Profits fell last year, forcing layoffs. Walker says he's told his congressman, Democrat Bart Gordon, that ``at the very least, China needs to let its currency float to make it fair.''
Fear of Float
That's just what worries Wang, 45, president of Zhejiang Zhongda Newland Co. He says the gradual appreciation of the yuan since 2005 contributed to a 5 percent drop in profits last year.
``Any rapid rise in the yuan would erase our profits,'' says Wang, whose company exports 98 percent of the frozen fruits, vegetables and seafood it processes.
Newland, in Zhejiang province on China's east coast, has grown in 12 years to become one of China's largest exporters of frozen foods. Its products are sold in the U.S. and other markets under brand names including Dole, Birds Eye and Nestle. Profits are about 2 percent of revenue, according to Wang.
``Margins tend to be very slim in China,'' says Christopher McNally, a China specialist at the East-West Center in Honolulu. ``A revaluation of 20 to 30 percent would be devastating for a lot of export manufacturers.''
Eager
Chinese officials say they are eager to rein in their trade surplus, but not at the cost of jobs or social harmony.
Hu Xiaolian, vice governor of China's central bank, told a meeting of the International Monetary Fund in Washington April 14 that ``external stability can only contribute to overall sustained stability when anchored by domestic stability.''
Export businesses such as Strategic Sports, a Hong Kong- based maker of bicycle helmets, contribute to that by providing employment for millions of people migrating from farms to China's fast-growing cities.
Lim Mingtang, vice general manager at the company's Dongguan plant in southern China, says 80 percent of his 800 workers are new arrivals from the countryside.
Working six days a week, they earn the equivalent of about $130 a month doing tasks such as inserting foam pads, attaching straps and affixing Disney stickers to children's bike helmets.
Meager Living Standard
The company provides housing 200 feet from the factory floor, in a spartan dormitory where workers sleep four to a room. A jump in the yuan would make it difficult for Lim, 58, to provide even this meager living standard.
``It would wipe out a lot of our business,'' he says. ``We would have to find new ways to cut costs.''
Al Lubrano, president of Technical Materials Inc. in Lincoln, Rhode Island, is also concerned about profits and jobs.
``The auto-parts industry is in trouble, partly because of the cheap yuan, so I've got a problem,'' says Lubrano, 57, whose company supplies the auto and telecommunications industries. ``Now people who had $22-an-hour jobs are out of work.''
What's needed are ``things that people have until now considered off the wall,'' Lubrano says. ``Like big tariffs on all Chinese goods.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Benjamin in Washington at
[email protected]
Last Updated: April 22, 2007 18:57 EDT
), l'ultima delle quali è datata 20.4.2007.
