Bund, Tbond, hardlanding and the Fleurs subprime lending....
- Creatore Discussione masgui
- Data di Inizio
Fernando'S
Forumer storico
rispondendo così, mi fai capire che non conosci le motivazione che sottindendono il detto anglosassone, e che sono dovute principalmente alla campagna dividendileo-kondor ha scritto:yes, but sell what? gold? soy? indices? everything? kul?
pardon, l'ultima m'è scappata ... ciaoooo
....indi regolati
'ngnurant
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Fernando'S ha scritto:rispondendo così, mi fai capire che non conosci le motivazione che sottindendono il detto anglosassone, e che sono dovute principalmente alla campagna dividendi
....indi regolati
'ngnurant
oramai quà si spazia su tutti i possibili mercati e i detti dei mercati azionari non sono più un must.. 
giomf
Forumer storico
Forse quella qui sopra è la seconda spalla di un testa-spalle dei bond che
direbbe ( ? forse )
che i bond starebbero per affondare . .
quindi dovrebbero salire ancor di più le commodities . . .
( . . forse . . non so . . ? ? chissà se ho capito qualcosa . .
)
e , fra le commodities . . . anche il gold . . .
direbbe ( ? forse )
che i bond starebbero per affondare . .
quindi dovrebbero salire ancor di più le commodities . . .
( . . forse . . non so . . ? ? chissà se ho capito qualcosa . .
)e , fra le commodities . . . anche il gold . . .
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
TOKYO, April 9 (Reuters) - Japanese Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii said on Monday that foreign exchange should reflect economic fundamentals. "We expect the G7 to discuss macroeconomics, finance, foreign exchange and capital markets from a broad point of view," Fujii told a news conference.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
By Yuzo Saeki
TOKYO, April 9 (Reuters) - Japan's economic expansion may lose pace in the coming months largely due to a slowdown in exports, but a rebound in consumption and robust corporate capital outlays will underpin growth, economists say.
Price conditions, however, remain weak despite a tighter labour market, supporting the view that the Bank of Japan will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.
"The speed of economic expansion will likely slow temporarily, most notably through production as the U.S. economy slows and firms adjust inventories," said Takuji Aida, chief economist at Barclays Capital.
"But the economy will continue to expand steadily," he added, citing firmer domestic demand.
The world's second largest economy expanded by an annualised 5.5 percent in October-December, marking the fastest growth in three years. While the economy may go through a soft patch, economists expect it to grow around 2 percent in 2007.
Japan's current economic recovery, which is in the longest post-war growth cycle since early 2002, has recently been led by domestic demand such as persistently strong capital spending.
Still, overseas demand, especially from the United States -- Japan's largest export destination -- holds the key to the nation's export-dependent economy.
"Although the U.S. economy is expected to avoid the worst case scenario, growth in (Japanese) exports is losing momentum, resulting in lower economic growth," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment showed last week the key index for big manufacturers fell for the first time in a year, although it was still just below a two-year high hit in the previous survey.
"The biggest reason behind the fall in the business sentiment diffusion index has probably been a slowdown in exports," said Takahide Kiuchi, senior economist at Nomura Securities.
In the survey, big manufacturers forecast 1.7 percent growth in export revenues for the current fiscal year started in April. That compared with a 2.3 percent rise seen for the last fiscal year in the March 2006 tankan survey.
Japan's economic recovery has often faltered due to a global economic slowdown, but economists say it has become more resilient thanks to upbeat investment plans and a pick-up in non-manufacturing sectors.
Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas, said that non-manufacturers' capital outlays could exceed those of manufacturers this fiscal year. Non-manufacturers are often seen as more closely linked to domestic demand.
Recent data also showed that industrial production fell by a less-than-expected 0.2 percent in February from a month ago and manufacturers' output is seen growing in March and April, feeding expectations that a slowdown in output will be only temporary
CONSUMPTION RECOVERY?
Personal consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of the economy and has been seen as the weakest link in the current recovery, is also showing signs of improvement.
The government's composite index for personal consumption last week showed an average 1.1 percent growth for January and February, higher than a 0.9 percent rise in the previous quarter.
Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse, said the firm reading suggested that the consumption component in January-March gross domestic product may become as strong as a 1.0 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in the last quarter of 2006.
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from the last 24 hours.
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Recent government data showed household spending rose 1.3 percent in February from a year ago, after reversing 12 consecutive months of year-on-year decline in January.
But wages are under pressure. Recent data showed wage earners' cash earnings were down 0.7 percent in February from a year ago, the third straight month of decline.
Against this background, inflationary pressure remains weak in Japan, with core consumer prices falling by 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the first drop in 10 months.
Economists expect the weakness in consumer prices to continue into the second half of this year. That will likely keep the pace of future BOJ rate hikes very slow, and many now expect the central bank to hold off from raising rates until after July. In February, the BOJ raised its key overnight call rate target by a quarter percentage point to 0.5 percent
TOKYO, April 9 (Reuters) - Japan's economic expansion may lose pace in the coming months largely due to a slowdown in exports, but a rebound in consumption and robust corporate capital outlays will underpin growth, economists say.
Price conditions, however, remain weak despite a tighter labour market, supporting the view that the Bank of Japan will be in no hurry to raise interest rates.
"The speed of economic expansion will likely slow temporarily, most notably through production as the U.S. economy slows and firms adjust inventories," said Takuji Aida, chief economist at Barclays Capital.
"But the economy will continue to expand steadily," he added, citing firmer domestic demand.
The world's second largest economy expanded by an annualised 5.5 percent in October-December, marking the fastest growth in three years. While the economy may go through a soft patch, economists expect it to grow around 2 percent in 2007.
Japan's current economic recovery, which is in the longest post-war growth cycle since early 2002, has recently been led by domestic demand such as persistently strong capital spending.
Still, overseas demand, especially from the United States -- Japan's largest export destination -- holds the key to the nation's export-dependent economy.
"Although the U.S. economy is expected to avoid the worst case scenario, growth in (Japanese) exports is losing momentum, resulting in lower economic growth," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.
The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment showed last week the key index for big manufacturers fell for the first time in a year, although it was still just below a two-year high hit in the previous survey.
"The biggest reason behind the fall in the business sentiment diffusion index has probably been a slowdown in exports," said Takahide Kiuchi, senior economist at Nomura Securities.
In the survey, big manufacturers forecast 1.7 percent growth in export revenues for the current fiscal year started in April. That compared with a 2.3 percent rise seen for the last fiscal year in the March 2006 tankan survey.
Japan's economic recovery has often faltered due to a global economic slowdown, but economists say it has become more resilient thanks to upbeat investment plans and a pick-up in non-manufacturing sectors.
Ryutaro Kono, chief economist at BNP Paribas, said that non-manufacturers' capital outlays could exceed those of manufacturers this fiscal year. Non-manufacturers are often seen as more closely linked to domestic demand.
Recent data also showed that industrial production fell by a less-than-expected 0.2 percent in February from a month ago and manufacturers' output is seen growing in March and April, feeding expectations that a slowdown in output will be only temporary
CONSUMPTION RECOVERY?
Personal consumption, which accounts for about 55 percent of the economy and has been seen as the weakest link in the current recovery, is also showing signs of improvement.
The government's composite index for personal consumption last week showed an average 1.1 percent growth for January and February, higher than a 0.9 percent rise in the previous quarter.
Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse, said the firm reading suggested that the consumption component in January-March gross domestic product may become as strong as a 1.0 percent quarter-on-quarter rise in the last quarter of 2006.
Reuters Pictures
Editors Choice: Best pictures
from the last 24 hours.
View Slideshow
Recent government data showed household spending rose 1.3 percent in February from a year ago, after reversing 12 consecutive months of year-on-year decline in January.
But wages are under pressure. Recent data showed wage earners' cash earnings were down 0.7 percent in February from a year ago, the third straight month of decline.
Against this background, inflationary pressure remains weak in Japan, with core consumer prices falling by 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier, the first drop in 10 months.
Economists expect the weakness in consumer prices to continue into the second half of this year. That will likely keep the pace of future BOJ rate hikes very slow, and many now expect the central bank to hold off from raising rates until after July. In February, the BOJ raised its key overnight call rate target by a quarter percentage point to 0.5 percent
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
By Rika Otsuka
TOKYO, April 9 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond futures fell to three-month lows on Monday after U.S. Treasuries plunged late last week as stronger-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates any time soon.
The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to a seven-week peak as the U.S. employment report on Friday boosted Treasury yields to their highest in over seven weeks.
U.S. government data showed 180,000 non-farm jobs were added in March, topping the consensus forecast of 120,000 and suggesting that economic growth may not be slowing as much as originally thought.
But JGBs erased part of their initial losses as investors hunted bargains, traders said. Japanese institutional investors have a lot of money on their hands at the moment as the new business year began just last week.
"JGBs fell as the U.S. payrolls report prompted a sell-off in Treasuries," said a senior trader at a European brokerage.
"But JGBs managed to limit losses as investors who had been waiting for a chance to buy picked them up after the benchmark 10-year yield hit the key 1.7 percent level," he said.
Market participants were also careful about selling too heavily as the Bank of Japan started a two-day policy meeting on Monday
The BOJ is seen keeping the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.5 percent at the meeting.
June futures <2JGBv1> fell 0.14 point to 133.82 after falling as low as 133.61, the lowest since mid-January.
The 10-year yield <JP10YTN> rose 2 basis points to 1.690 percent.
It briefly touched the psychologically important 1.7 percent level for the first time since Feb. 21, when the BOJ raised the overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent.
The Nikkei stock average <N225> ended up 1.48 percent at its highest close in nearly six weeks on Monday, prompting some investors to shift funds to equities from bonds.
WIDER SELL-OFF
Despite the bargain-hunting that prevented JGB prices from falling too sharply this session, market players remained wary that Japanese bonds might stay under downward pressure in the short term.
"The Treasury market could see more selling later in the day as the market only had a half-day session on Friday," said Tetsuya Miura, a bond strategist at Shinko Securities
"Investors cannot be so optimistic to think that the latest sell-off in bonds has run its course," Miura said.
The U.S. bond market closed early on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
The two-year yield <JP2YTN> rose 1 basis point to 0.810 percent.
The five-year yield <JP5YTN> was up 1.5 basis points at 1.220 percent after climbing to 1.235 percent, its highest since Feb. 21.
The 20-year yield <JP20YTN> climbed 1.5 basis points to 2.135 percent.
BOJ board members are likely to focus on how soon and how quickly prices will rise -- a question the board will have to address in an economic outlook report due later this month.
Investors will look for clues about the BOJ's view of prices, as well as the health of the economy, in comments from BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui at a post-meeting news conference on Tuesday.
Japan's nationwide consumer price index dipped 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier.
Analysts said the market would also pay attention to whether the tone of comments from the BOJ on the U.S. economic outlook is becoming more upbeat following Friday's U.S. jobs report.
TOKYO, April 9 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond futures fell to three-month lows on Monday after U.S. Treasuries plunged late last week as stronger-than-expected jobs data dampened expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates any time soon.
The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to a seven-week peak as the U.S. employment report on Friday boosted Treasury yields to their highest in over seven weeks.
U.S. government data showed 180,000 non-farm jobs were added in March, topping the consensus forecast of 120,000 and suggesting that economic growth may not be slowing as much as originally thought.
But JGBs erased part of their initial losses as investors hunted bargains, traders said. Japanese institutional investors have a lot of money on their hands at the moment as the new business year began just last week.
"JGBs fell as the U.S. payrolls report prompted a sell-off in Treasuries," said a senior trader at a European brokerage.
"But JGBs managed to limit losses as investors who had been waiting for a chance to buy picked them up after the benchmark 10-year yield hit the key 1.7 percent level," he said.
Market participants were also careful about selling too heavily as the Bank of Japan started a two-day policy meeting on Monday
The BOJ is seen keeping the overnight call rate unchanged at 0.5 percent at the meeting.
June futures <2JGBv1> fell 0.14 point to 133.82 after falling as low as 133.61, the lowest since mid-January.
The 10-year yield <JP10YTN> rose 2 basis points to 1.690 percent.
It briefly touched the psychologically important 1.7 percent level for the first time since Feb. 21, when the BOJ raised the overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 percent.
The Nikkei stock average <N225> ended up 1.48 percent at its highest close in nearly six weeks on Monday, prompting some investors to shift funds to equities from bonds.
WIDER SELL-OFF
Despite the bargain-hunting that prevented JGB prices from falling too sharply this session, market players remained wary that Japanese bonds might stay under downward pressure in the short term.
"The Treasury market could see more selling later in the day as the market only had a half-day session on Friday," said Tetsuya Miura, a bond strategist at Shinko Securities
"Investors cannot be so optimistic to think that the latest sell-off in bonds has run its course," Miura said.
The U.S. bond market closed early on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
The two-year yield <JP2YTN> rose 1 basis point to 0.810 percent.
The five-year yield <JP5YTN> was up 1.5 basis points at 1.220 percent after climbing to 1.235 percent, its highest since Feb. 21.
The 20-year yield <JP20YTN> climbed 1.5 basis points to 2.135 percent.
BOJ board members are likely to focus on how soon and how quickly prices will rise -- a question the board will have to address in an economic outlook report due later this month.
Investors will look for clues about the BOJ's view of prices, as well as the health of the economy, in comments from BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui at a post-meeting news conference on Tuesday.
Japan's nationwide consumer price index dipped 0.1 percent in February from a year earlier.
Analysts said the market would also pay attention to whether the tone of comments from the BOJ on the U.S. economic outlook is becoming more upbeat following Friday's U.S. jobs report.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
giomf ha scritto:Forse quella qui sopra è la seconda spalla di un testa-spalle dei bond che
direbbe ( ? forse )
che i bond starebbero per affondare . .
quindi dovrebbero salire ancor di più le commodities . . .
( . . forse . . non so . . ? ? chissà se ho capito qualcosa . .
e , fra le commodities . . . anche il gold . . .
Dipende quale è la causa dell'affondo dei bond.. se l'affondo dei bond è causato da una crescita economica e da aspettative inflazionistiche sostenute allora il gold potrebbe sovraperformare anche in presenza di un dollaro più forte del previsto, se invece i bond sono deboli a causa di una diminuzione della liquidità frutto dei carry sintetici o no allora anche il gold potrebbe scendere.
Per il momento prevalgono le opinioni sul primo elemento....
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