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CDS e Ratings (Moody's, S&P's, Fitch)CDS, Ratings e variaz.di rating+indici mercato import. es: BDI: Baltic Dry Index etc
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S&P Bond Upgrades Top Downgrades as Cash Swells: Credit Markets
More U.S. companies had their credit ratings boosted by Standard & Poor’s this year than saw them cut for the first time since 1997 as borrowers increased profits and stockpiled cash. Ford Motor Co., the world’s most profitable automaker, and San Jose, California-based EBay Inc. were upgraded by S&P along with 756 others, compared with 722 downgrades, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. In 2009, S&P slashed corporate debt grades more than three times as often as it raised them, the data show. Companies held $1.17 trillion of cash, the most on record compared with the value of their assets, as the U.S. recovered from the worst recession in more than 70 years. Rising confidence in the ability of borrowers to meet debt payments led investors to push relative yields down to the lowest since 2007. “Corporate fundamentals are about as strong as we’ve ever seen them,” said Edward Marrinan, a credit strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Stamford, Connecticut. The creditworthiness of borrowers will continue to rise even as they are tempted to accelerate mergers and acquisitions and repurchase stock, according to Marrinan. S&P boosted grades for non-financial issuers 1.5 times as often as it cut them, while Moody’s Investors Service made 1.9 upgrades in those sectors for each downgrade, the ratings companies said.
Profits Climb
Profits at U.S. companies climbed 26 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, according to a Commerce Department report on Dec. 22. Economists at New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. said in a report this month that U.S. gross domestic product may increase 3.3 percent in 2011, from 2.9 percent in 2009. “Looking into 2011, our expectation for the economy is that it’s going to be a pretty decent year,” Mark Gray, a managing director at New York-based Moody’s, said in a telephone interview. “If that turns out to be, it will be more of a matter of will than ability for companies that are in a position to improve their balance sheets.” Elsewhere in credit markets, the cost of protecting U.S. corporate bonds from default was little changed after reports showed retailers had their best holiday sales in five years while home prices fell more than forecast. The Markit CDX North America Investment Grade Index rose 0.1 basis point to 85.8 basis points as of 9:59 a.m. in New York, according to index administrator Markit Group Ltd.
Holiday Sales
U.S. retailers’ 2010 holiday sales jumped 5.5 percent to $584 billion for the best performance in five years as shoppers snapped up clothing and jewelry, said MasterCard Advisors’ SpendingPulse. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values fell 0.8 percent in October, more than the 0.2 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. In London, the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of 125 companies with investment-grade ratings was unchanged at 105.5. Credit swaps pay the buyer face value if a borrower fails to meet its obligations, less the value of the defaulted debt. A basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, equals $1,000 annually on a contract protecting $10 million of debt. Western Refining Inc. amended its $800 million revolving credit agreement and extended the maturity date. The facility includes a $145 million tranche maturing on May 31, 2012, and a $655 million tranche maturing on Jan. 1, 2015, the El Paso, Texas-based refiner said in a statement posted on its website. The Standard & Poor’s/LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index rose 0.5 cent to 92.6 cents on the dollar yesterday, the second- highest price this month. The index tracks the 100 largest dollar-denominated first-lien leveraged loans. Leveraged loans and junk bonds are rated below Baa3 by Moody’s and lower than BBB- by S&P.
Emerging Markets
In emerging markets, relative yields fell by 4 basis points to 236 basis points, or 2.36 percentage points, according to JPMorgan index data. Relative yields on U.S. company bonds compressed this year as investors gained confidence the recovery will help the riskiest borrowers avoid default. At the same time, junk-bond issuance reached a record as companies rated below investment grade took advantage of bond buyers seeking higher yields as the Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate near zero. Spreads on junk bonds narrowed 102 basis points in 2010 through Dec. 24, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Master II index. They touched 537 basis points that day, the tightest since November 2007, the index data show.
B Ratings
About half of non-financial companies upgraded by S&P were rated in the B range and 16 percent were in the CCC or CC tiers, according to a Dec. 15 report from the New York-based firm. The default rate for speculative-grade borrowers fell to 3.4 percent last month from more than 11 percent a year earlier. It may decline to 2.4 percent by September 2011, S&P said. Moody’s estimated this month that defaults may fall from November’s 3.5 percent rate to 2.1 percent next year. Investment-grade spreads have contracted 23 basis points to 167 from 190 at the end of 2009, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Master index. Companies will find it more difficult to improve their creditworthiness after cutting costs and taking advantage of investor demand for their debt to extend maturities, Diane Vazza, head of global fixed income at S&P, said in the report. “We expect only modest revenue growth in 2011 and that margins will be flat to slightly down,” wrote Vazza, who didn’t return a telephone call seeking elaboration. “To this end, we would expect upgrades to slow in 2011 but downgrades to remain muted.”
Moody’s Actions
Moody’s increased corporate debt ratings 742 times across all industries and cut them 847 times, Bloomberg data show. The downgrades include 97 rankings on hybrid securities issued by BB&T Corp., Fifth Third Bancorp and 30 other banks on Feb. 17, Bloomberg data show. Bondholders may suffer in 2011 as cash-laden companies start tapping their war chests to expand, said John Hawley, a money manager in Des Moines, Iowa who helps oversee $22 billion of investment-grade bonds for Aviva Investors North America. “If you just look at it from a balance sheet perspective, we’d think we’re pretty close to the top and would not expect it to get better from here,” Hawley said. EBay, the largest e-commerce marketplace, was raised to A from A- by S&P on March 2. Moody’s followed on Aug. 19, boosting EBay to an equivalent A2. The change followed the company’s “good resilience during the challenging economic environment over the past eighteen months,” Moody’s said in a statement. Ford’s unsecured debt rating was raised three times by Moody’s in 2011, to Ba3 from Caa1. The Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker, the second-biggest issuer of high-yield corporate bonds this year after Ally Financial Inc., sold $4.5 billion of debt through its Ford Motor Credit Co. unit at yields showing investors were betting it would be upgraded to investment grade. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. lost the AAA rating from S&P that it had held for almost 21 years on Feb. 4, the day it sold $8 billion of notes in a four-part offering to help pay for buying the railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. S&P cut Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire’s grade one step to AA+. Moody’s downgraded it to Aa2 from Aaa on April 8, 2009.
To contact the reporter on this story: Tim Catts in New York at [email protected]; Christine Richard in New York at [email protected]. To contact the editor responsible for this story: Alan Goldstein at [email protected].
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