CDS e Ratings (Moody's, S&P's, Fitch) CDS, Ratings e variaz.di rating+indici mercato import. es: BDI: Baltic Dry Index etc

il Baltic Dry Index è ancora un anticipatore dei corsi azionari mondiali?

  • Sì

    Votes: 1 33,3%

  • Sì ma sembra aver dilatato lo sfasamento

    Votes: 1 33,3%

  • No ma vediamo se i corsi si decidono a seguirlo

    Votes: 0 0,0%

  • No, ormai si è scollegato

    Votes: 1 33,3%
  • Total voters
    3
  • Poll closed .
Aggiornamento a lunedì 11:

1310480866cds11072011.png
 
Morgan Stanley evidentemente beneficia dei maxi gain ottenuti in questi giorni shortando titoli di stato italiani ... e i suoi operatori evidentemente usano tutti cellulari nokia :D
 
Alert per futuri downgrades sugli strumenti ibridi, con nuova normativa Basilea III :
LBCP.PA MCO.N] By Matthew Attwood LONDON, July 29 (IFR) - A proposal by Fitch to revise its rating criteria for bank regulatory capital securities could lead to a wave of downgrades of legacy instruments as the agency removes implicit state support from its ratings criteria. The move by Fitch follows Moody's which put as much as USD600bn of banks' subordinated debt ratings on review in February for similar reasons. The proposals will also introduce much wider notching for new Basel 3-compliant Tier 1 instruments, likely to move the bulk of new issues into non-investment grade territory. Legacy Upper Tier 2 and Tier 1 securities will be downgraded by one or two notches, because resolution regimes could act against contractual terms restricting loss-absorption, although Fitch hasn't given details on the amount of paper involved. "We don't have a dollar number," said James Longsdon, co-head of EMEA banks at Fitch. "At some stage we will but this is still an exposure draft and we haven't aggregated the amount of debt that might be affected into a single currency yet, although we have identified an idea of how many issuers and issues that could be affected there are." A ratings advisory banker, who welcomed the clarity of the Fitch proposals on the rating of future hybrid instruments, said that the market would have to feel some pain first: "Existing hybrids will not be grandfathered so I would expect downgrades of hybrid securities across the board," he said. Fitch believes that investors in bank regulatory capital are more likely to suffer loss if they invest in Basel III-compliant issuance than they were before. It proposes to remove state support from dated subordinated debt - old-style Lower Tier 2 or Tier 2 under Basel III - by using a bank's viability rating rather than its issuer default rating (IDR) as the anchor rating for notching. Fitch said that for a limited number of issuers, it could result to multi-notch downgrades. The most equity-like Basel III-compliant Tier 1 securities could be rated as many as three notches lower than the issuer's viability rating, because of those increased concerns about the risk of non-performance, with an additional two-notch reduction for loss severity. But with the viability rating certain to be set below the IDR an additional five notches threatens to move this class of debt into Crossover or non-investment grade territory. Market participants have until September 15 to share their views with the agency. TRIPLE B OR BELOW "It's highly likely that most securities will end up very low Triple B or below," said the ratings advisory banker. "Obviously that won't be ideal when you're trying to market a transaction to the widest possible group of investors but that being said everyone knows that Basel III-compliant securities will be more risky. It's fair to reflect this in the rating and of course investors will be compensated for the loss-absorbing features." While some investors may choose not to participate or place smaller orders than before, sell-side bankers are confident that efforts some of the larger accounts have already made to accommodate loss-absorbing debt will guarantee a large investor base. "We've seen a few announcements from very large investors saying they've created dedicated funds for CoCos and I would expect them to be able to buy any form of Basel III-compliant debt, whether it converts into equity or even if it writes down," said one syndicate official. "Clearly investors know they're more risky and a lot are still willing to invest because the yield will reflect that extra risk. Whether that comes in the form of dedicated new funds or whether they will be able to sit in mainstream funds remains to be seen." The proposal confirms Fitch's proactive approach to rating hybrids and subordin
 
yellow ha scritto:
Alert per futuri downgrades sugli strumenti ibridi, con nuova normativa Basilea III :
LBCP.PA MCO.N] By Matthew Attwood LONDON, July 29 (IFR) - A proposal by Fitch to revise its rating criteria for bank regulatory capital securities could lead to a wave of downgrades of legacy instruments as the agency removes implicit state support from its ratings criteria. The move by Fitch follows Moody's which put as much as USD600bn of banks' subordinated debt ratings on review in February for similar reasons. The proposals will also introduce much wider notching for new Basel 3-compliant Tier 1 instruments, likely to move the bulk of new issues into non-investment grade territory. Legacy Upper Tier 2 and Tier 1 securities will be downgraded by one or two notches, because resolution regimes could act against contractual terms restricting loss-absorption, although Fitch hasn't given details on the amount of paper involved. "We don't have a dollar number," said James Longsdon, co-head of EMEA banks at Fitch. "At some stage we will but this is still an exposure draft and we haven't aggregated the amount of debt that might be affected into a single currency yet, although we have identified an idea of how many issuers and issues that could be affected there are." A ratings advisory banker, who welcomed the clarity of the Fitch proposals on the rating of future hybrid instruments, said that the market would have to feel some pain first: "Existing hybrids will not be grandfathered so I would expect downgrades of hybrid securities across the board," he said. Fitch believes that investors in bank regulatory capital are more likely to suffer loss if they invest in Basel III-compliant issuance than they were before. It proposes to remove state support from dated subordinated debt - old-style Lower Tier 2 or Tier 2 under Basel III - by using a bank's viability rating rather than its issuer default rating (IDR) as the anchor rating for notching. Fitch said that for a limited number of issuers, it could result to multi-notch downgrades. The most equity-like Basel III-compliant Tier 1 securities could be rated as many as three notches lower than the issuer's viability rating, because of those increased concerns about the risk of non-performance, with an additional two-notch reduction for loss severity. But with the viability rating certain to be set below the IDR an additional five notches threatens to move this class of debt into Crossover or non-investment grade territory. Market participants have until September 15 to share their views with the agency. TRIPLE B OR BELOW "It's highly likely that most securities will end up very low Triple B or below," said the ratings advisory banker. "Obviously that won't be ideal when you're trying to market a transaction to the widest possible group of investors but that being said everyone knows that Basel III-compliant securities will be more risky. It's fair to reflect this in the rating and of course investors will be compensated for the loss-absorbing features." While some investors may choose not to participate or place smaller orders than before, sell-side bankers are confident that efforts some of the larger accounts have already made to accommodate loss-absorbing debt will guarantee a large investor base. "We've seen a few announcements from very large investors saying they've created dedicated funds for CoCos and I would expect them to be able to buy any form of Basel III-compliant debt, whether it converts into equity or even if it writes down," said one syndicate official. "Clearly investors know they're more risky and a lot are still willing to invest because the yield will reflect that extra risk. Whether that comes in the form of dedicated new funds or whether they will be able to sit in mainstream funds remains to be seen." The proposal confirms Fitch's proactive approach to rating hybrids and subordin
Clicca per allargare...

Tra le righe mi sembra di leggere che, seppur con possibili cali di rating, i vecchi tier potrebbero essere interessanti (anche per tutto già discusso nel forum perp.). Logico che i nuovi facciano abbastanza paura per le clausole...& co.
Se sbaglio mi corigerete please.
:sad:
 
Prima o poi anche la Francia:titanic:ballerà :
France and Italy saw the biggest increase in net value of outstanding default insurance contracts throughout the euro zone according to data for the week ending July 29, released by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation.

French CDS net notional value up by 6.1 pct to $22.13 bln, Italian up 2.3 pct to $25.65 bln.......
 
yellow ha scritto:
Prima o poi anche la Francia:titanic:ballerà :
France and Italy saw the biggest increase in net value of outstanding default insurance contracts throughout the euro zone according to data for the week ending July 29, released by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation.

French CDS net notional value up by 6.1 pct to $22.13 bln, Italian up 2.3 pct to $25.65 bln.......
Clicca per allargare...

LONDON, Aug 10 (IFR) -
European banks' credit default swaps widened sharply on Wednesday, while the prices of their bonds dropped, as fears mounted that France will soon lose its triple-A rating,
market sources said. "Some people are panicking and looking to offload their cash positions," said the head of European credit trading at a U.S. investment bank.
　
French banks are hard hit, with BNP Paribas five-year CDS widening 35bp to 246bp,
Societe Generale CDS 65bp wider at 334bp and Credit Agricole 23.5bp wider at 265bp, according to Markit data.
　
The Markit Senior Financials index hit a new record wide of 232bp, 24bp wider since 0900 GMT, while the Subordinated index also hit a record wide of 398bp, having been at 370bp earlier today, according to Markit .....
　
LONDON, Aug 10 (IFR) - French banks' credit default swaps continue to widen on Wednesday, led by Societe Generale which is 24% wider on the day, according to Markit. By 1510 GMT,
Societe Generale's five-year CDS was 65bp wider at 334bp,
while BNP Paribas' five-year CDS was 35bp wider at 246bp
and Credit Agricole's five-year CDS was 23.5bp wider at 265bp,
Markit data showed. (Reporting by IFR Markets
P.S "La Francia detiene 350 miliardi di debito italiano nelle sue banche", dice Dave Rovelli, economista per Canaccord Adams.
 
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