For
Biogen Inc., the Food and Drug Administration’s expected decision Monday on its Alzheimer’s drug is what a
JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst called “the mother of all binary events” -- one that could send its shares veering sharply in either direction.
If regulators give the company approval to market the drug, called aducanumab, the stock could surge to
as much as $450, up from its $272.55 close on Thursday, according to Wall Street analysts. Or it could tumble to $200 if the treatment is shot down, according to Cory Kasimov, the JPMorgan analyst who follows the company.
The forecasts reflect how heavily Biogen’s outlook is tied to the drug, the first that’s thought to slow the progression of the disease in people who show early signs of cognitive impairment. That’s left Wall Street analysts and investors trying to weigh whether regulators will hasten its approval despite mixed reviews that whipsawed the company’s stock late last year.
“The data package is insufficient, and with almost any other indication, we suspect regulators would be asking for another confirmatory trial pre-approval,” Kasimov wrote in a note to clients.
“But this isn’t any other indication. It’s Alzheimer’s. And the unmet need is rather unprecedented,” he wrote. “It’s anyone’s guess as to what happens next.”
Read more: Biogen’s New Alzheimer’s Drug Faces Hurdles Reaching Patients, Even if It’s Approved
Biogen’s stock has traded sideways since November, when it surged on an FDA staff report that said aducanumab appears effective, only to then tumble when an outside panel of agency advisers said the data from a single trial wasn’t sufficient. But activity in bullish
Biogen calls has picked up recently, suggesting the market is positioning ahead of the June 7 decision date. BBG