Imark
Forumer storico
Riprendo da dove avevo lasciato sul FOL... 
Veniamo da qui:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=834400&page=50
Veniamo da qui:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=834400&page=50
Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Dall'High Yield al Flight to Quality ... (Vol. IV): Cash is King (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione Imark
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
METHOS
Forumer storico
Riprendo da dove avevo lasciato sul FOL...
Veniamo da qui:
http://www.finanzaonline.com/forum/showthread.php?t=834400&page=50
Mai titolo di un thread fu più premonitore di questo. Se avessi venduto le porcate che ho ai tempi in cui hai scritto il primo ora stare decisamente meglio...
Imark
Forumer storico
E dire che ci avevamo pure ragionato su quando - ti ricordi - erano venute fuori le massicce assunzioni di avvocati fallimentaristi da parte degli uffici affari legali delle grandi banche...
Io avevo alleggerito allora e poi nuovamente nell'ottobre 2007, quando pure qualche uscita si fece insieme... ricordo l'episodio di Ineos...
METHOS
Forumer storico
E dire che ci avevamo pure ragionato su quando - ti ricordi - erano venute fuori le massicce assunzioni di avvocati fallimentaristi da parte degli uffici affari legali delle grandi banche...
Io avevo alleggerito allora e poi nuovamente nell'ottobre 2007, quando pure qualche uscita si fece insieme... ricordo l'episodio di Ineos...
Lo so bene, fossi uscito da un sacco di titoli come ho fatto con ineos, ma chi credeva a un macello del genere?
Imark
Forumer storico
Mah, le agenzie di rating solo ora vengono ad ipotizzare che il default rate sull'HY raggiungerà a questo giro di default livelli record ed arrivano a chiudere la stalla quando i buoi sono scappati da un pezzo: eppure c'erano i presupposti per ipotizzare una cosa del genere già tempo fa.
Mai il merito di credito sul corporate USA era stato così modesto (con tanti emittenti a rating CCC).
Il 53% dei bond HY quotavano a livelli distressed a fine 2008.
Global Default Rate Will Jump to 15.1% by Year-End (Update2)
By John Glover
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults by corporate borrowers worldwide may rise to 15.1 percent in the next 12 months as the economy turns “perilous,” according to Moody’s Investors Service, boosting its earlier forecast by almost 50 percent.
About 300 companies will fail to meet their obligations this year, equivalent to a rate of 25 a month, New York-based Moody’s said in a report today. The speculative-grade default rate was 4 percent at the end of 2008. Moody’s last month predicted a default rate of 10.4 percent for the end of 2009.
“Global economic conditions are now substantially weaker and more perilous than they were in the two previous credit cycles of 1990-91 and 2001-02,” Kenneth Emery, Moody’s director of corporate default research, wrote in the note today.
About $1 trillion of credit losses and writedowns at financial institutions worldwide have combined with the deepest economic slowdown since World War II to weaken company finances and slash the cash flow they can use to pay their debts. Nortel Networks Corp., North America’s biggest maker of telephone equipment, filed for bankruptcy protection today in the U.S.
Defaults in the U.S. will rise to 15.3 percent at the end of the year and the rate in Europe will increase to as much as 18.3 percent, Moody’s said.
Margin for Error
The soaring default rate predicted by Moody’s model is driven by “unprecedented” corporate bond yields relative to government debt, the lowest average ratings ever and expectations the U.S. unemployment rate will increase to 9 percent by year-end from the current 7.2 percent, the ratings company said.
“Because the model drivers are outside of recent historical experience and future economic conditions remain highly uncertain, the default forecast is subject to some margin of error in this environment,” Emery wrote in the note.
While the rate may seem “outlandish,” given that there’s been “nothing like” a 15 percent default rate since the Great Depression, in fact it makes sense, said Marty Fridson, the chief executive officer of New York-based Fridson Investment Advisors. Fridson said his analysis gives a default rate of 17.25 percent.
Issuers in the lowest ratings categories make up about 22 percent of the market, compared with 2 percent in the 1990-1991 recession, according to Fridson.
“The surprise has been that default rates didn’t escalate earlier,” Fridson said. “The peak in defaults would seem to be some way off and some boards that should have filed already are clearly in denial.”
The speculative-grade distress index that Moody’s started in 2006 rose to a record 53.1 percent at the end of 2008. The index began to increase at the end of 2007 and “spiked sharply” in the final three months of 2008, Moody’s said.
There were 104 Moody’s-rated corporate defaults last year, of which 22 took place in December. Of the companies that defaulted last year, 86 were from the U.S. and Canada and 12 were from Europe, Moody’s said. In 2007, 18 companies defaulted, 15 from North America and three from Europe.
Mai il merito di credito sul corporate USA era stato così modesto (con tanti emittenti a rating CCC).
Il 53% dei bond HY quotavano a livelli distressed a fine 2008.
Global Default Rate Will Jump to 15.1% by Year-End (Update2)
By John Glover
Jan. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Defaults by corporate borrowers worldwide may rise to 15.1 percent in the next 12 months as the economy turns “perilous,” according to Moody’s Investors Service, boosting its earlier forecast by almost 50 percent.
About 300 companies will fail to meet their obligations this year, equivalent to a rate of 25 a month, New York-based Moody’s said in a report today. The speculative-grade default rate was 4 percent at the end of 2008. Moody’s last month predicted a default rate of 10.4 percent for the end of 2009.
“Global economic conditions are now substantially weaker and more perilous than they were in the two previous credit cycles of 1990-91 and 2001-02,” Kenneth Emery, Moody’s director of corporate default research, wrote in the note today.
About $1 trillion of credit losses and writedowns at financial institutions worldwide have combined with the deepest economic slowdown since World War II to weaken company finances and slash the cash flow they can use to pay their debts. Nortel Networks Corp., North America’s biggest maker of telephone equipment, filed for bankruptcy protection today in the U.S.
Defaults in the U.S. will rise to 15.3 percent at the end of the year and the rate in Europe will increase to as much as 18.3 percent, Moody’s said.
Margin for Error
The soaring default rate predicted by Moody’s model is driven by “unprecedented” corporate bond yields relative to government debt, the lowest average ratings ever and expectations the U.S. unemployment rate will increase to 9 percent by year-end from the current 7.2 percent, the ratings company said.
“Because the model drivers are outside of recent historical experience and future economic conditions remain highly uncertain, the default forecast is subject to some margin of error in this environment,” Emery wrote in the note.
While the rate may seem “outlandish,” given that there’s been “nothing like” a 15 percent default rate since the Great Depression, in fact it makes sense, said Marty Fridson, the chief executive officer of New York-based Fridson Investment Advisors. Fridson said his analysis gives a default rate of 17.25 percent.
Issuers in the lowest ratings categories make up about 22 percent of the market, compared with 2 percent in the 1990-1991 recession, according to Fridson.
“The surprise has been that default rates didn’t escalate earlier,” Fridson said. “The peak in defaults would seem to be some way off and some boards that should have filed already are clearly in denial.”
The speculative-grade distress index that Moody’s started in 2006 rose to a record 53.1 percent at the end of 2008. The index began to increase at the end of 2007 and “spiked sharply” in the final three months of 2008, Moody’s said.
There were 104 Moody’s-rated corporate defaults last year, of which 22 took place in December. Of the companies that defaulted last year, 86 were from the U.S. and Canada and 12 were from Europe, Moody’s said. In 2007, 18 companies defaulted, 15 from North America and three from Europe.
negusneg
New Member
Bond Rally Falters on Economy, Bank Capital Concern (Update1)
By John Glover
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in corporate debt that saw investors buying bonds at the fastest pace since May, pushing yields down from records, faltered amid signs the worldwide economy is worsening and on concern banks are short of capital.
The extra yield investors demand to hold U.S. investment- grade bonds relative to government debt rose 3 basis points to 560, the first increase this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Corporate Master index. A similar benchmark in Europe climbed 1 basis point to 410.
Results from lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, and Deutsche Bank AG, Europe’s biggest lender, showed losses as the global recession spread. The Federal Reserve has cut its target lending rate to as low as zero to kick-start lending, while the European Central Bank today lowered its main refinancing rate a half-point to 2 percent, matching the lowest level ever.
“Renewed concerns about the banks along with another round of poor economic data are putting the jitters back in the market,” said Rob Jaeger, an analyst in London at Societe Generale SA, France’s second-biggest bank. “The market’s strength at the start of the year has been overwhelmed by negative news on fundamentals, which has taken the wind out of its sails.”
Returning investor confidence as the new year started allowed companies including McDonald’s Corp., the world’s biggest restaurant company, and Bertelsmann AG, Europe’s largest media firm, to sell bonds, pushing yields down. Companies in the U.S. and Europe excluding banks have raised $49.9 billion this year as of yesterday, from $16.8 billion in the period a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
JPMorgan Profit
JPMorgan said today profit fell 76 percent as rising defaults and the economic slowdown forced it to write down $2.9 billion of assets and boost reserves for bad loans. HSBC Holdings Plc slid to the lowest in 10 years after Morgan Stanley analysts said the bank may need to raise as much as $30 billion in new capital and slash its dividend 50 percent.
Deutsche Bank AG posted a record loss for the fourth quarter yesterday. Madrid-based Banco Espanol de Credito SA, or Banesto, a unit of Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, said loan arrears more than tripled in the period.
“Just look at Deutsche Bank, look at Banesto’s non- performing loans,” said Alexander Plenk, a credit analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “Those are signs of what to expect in the next round of bank results. The crisis we’ve seen in the financial markets is spreading into the corporate markets.”
Banesto said yesterday the proportion of loans in arrears rose to 1.62 percent from 0.47 percent a year earlier.
Default Risk Rises
The cost of protecting against a default by Bank of America Corp. climbed to an almost four-month high today on reports the bank may need more U.S. government aid to absorb losses tied to its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.
Credit-default swaps on European banks also rose, with contracts on Barclays Plc increasing 12 basis points to 167, HSBC climbing 7 basis points to 107, UBS AG advancing 3 to 223 and Deutsche Bank rising 2 to 128.
A basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Credit-default swaps, contracts conceived to protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. The cost of the contracts rises as the perception of risk grows.
Leveraged Loans
The Markit iTraxx LevX Index linked to credit-default swaps on European leveraged loans, which falls as sentiment worsens, dropped 3 basis points to 82.5, according to Morgan Stanley, undoing the rally that pushed the index to 85.5 last week.
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday raised its estimate of worldwide defaults in the next 12 months by almost 50 percent to 15.1 percent. The rate in the U.S. will increase to 15.3 percent, the New York-based ratings company said.
“If banks aren’t willing to lend, then that spells trouble for corporates,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Right now banks are short of capital and if they take more losses they’ll need more capital. Banks are the most important challenge to the corporate sector.”
To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: January 15, 2009 09:50 EST
By John Glover
Jan. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The rally in corporate debt that saw investors buying bonds at the fastest pace since May, pushing yields down from records, faltered amid signs the worldwide economy is worsening and on concern banks are short of capital.
The extra yield investors demand to hold U.S. investment- grade bonds relative to government debt rose 3 basis points to 560, the first increase this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s U.S. Corporate Master index. A similar benchmark in Europe climbed 1 basis point to 410.
Results from lenders including JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-largest U.S. bank by assets, and Deutsche Bank AG, Europe’s biggest lender, showed losses as the global recession spread. The Federal Reserve has cut its target lending rate to as low as zero to kick-start lending, while the European Central Bank today lowered its main refinancing rate a half-point to 2 percent, matching the lowest level ever.
“Renewed concerns about the banks along with another round of poor economic data are putting the jitters back in the market,” said Rob Jaeger, an analyst in London at Societe Generale SA, France’s second-biggest bank. “The market’s strength at the start of the year has been overwhelmed by negative news on fundamentals, which has taken the wind out of its sails.”
Returning investor confidence as the new year started allowed companies including McDonald’s Corp., the world’s biggest restaurant company, and Bertelsmann AG, Europe’s largest media firm, to sell bonds, pushing yields down. Companies in the U.S. and Europe excluding banks have raised $49.9 billion this year as of yesterday, from $16.8 billion in the period a year ago, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
JPMorgan Profit
JPMorgan said today profit fell 76 percent as rising defaults and the economic slowdown forced it to write down $2.9 billion of assets and boost reserves for bad loans. HSBC Holdings Plc slid to the lowest in 10 years after Morgan Stanley analysts said the bank may need to raise as much as $30 billion in new capital and slash its dividend 50 percent.
Deutsche Bank AG posted a record loss for the fourth quarter yesterday. Madrid-based Banco Espanol de Credito SA, or Banesto, a unit of Banco Santander SA, Spain’s biggest lender, said loan arrears more than tripled in the period.
“Just look at Deutsche Bank, look at Banesto’s non- performing loans,” said Alexander Plenk, a credit analyst at UniCredit SpA in Munich. “Those are signs of what to expect in the next round of bank results. The crisis we’ve seen in the financial markets is spreading into the corporate markets.”
Banesto said yesterday the proportion of loans in arrears rose to 1.62 percent from 0.47 percent a year earlier.
Default Risk Rises
The cost of protecting against a default by Bank of America Corp. climbed to an almost four-month high today on reports the bank may need more U.S. government aid to absorb losses tied to its acquisition of Merrill Lynch.
Credit-default swaps on European banks also rose, with contracts on Barclays Plc increasing 12 basis points to 167, HSBC climbing 7 basis points to 107, UBS AG advancing 3 to 223 and Deutsche Bank rising 2 to 128.
A basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for five years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.
Credit-default swaps, contracts conceived to protect bondholders against default, pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a company fail to adhere to its debt agreements. The cost of the contracts rises as the perception of risk grows.
Leveraged Loans
The Markit iTraxx LevX Index linked to credit-default swaps on European leveraged loans, which falls as sentiment worsens, dropped 3 basis points to 82.5, according to Morgan Stanley, undoing the rally that pushed the index to 85.5 last week.
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday raised its estimate of worldwide defaults in the next 12 months by almost 50 percent to 15.1 percent. The rate in the U.S. will increase to 15.3 percent, the New York-based ratings company said.
“If banks aren’t willing to lend, then that spells trouble for corporates,” said Andrea Cicione, a strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Right now banks are short of capital and if they take more losses they’ll need more capital. Banks are the most important challenge to the corporate sector.”
To contact the reporter on this story: John Glover in London at [email protected]
Last Updated: January 15, 2009 09:50 EST
Imark
Forumer storico
Per molti emittenti si è visto uno sforzo di volontà da parte delle banche per evitare che andassero in default già nel 2008, mediante accordi che consentito di rinegoziare i covenants sui prestiti bancari o di evitare che fossero valutati alle scadenze previste (cosa che avrebbe dato luogo a default tecnico).
Questo perché le banche, secondo me, sapendo che già le trimestrali Q4/2008 sarebbero state pessime, hanno voluto evitare di aggiungere altra zavorra alle perdite...
Imark
Forumer storico
Peraltro, se sei capace di acquistare a debito selezionando con cura gli acquisti, generando sinergie e storicamente ti gestisci con un debito HY riuscendo a dare prova di affidabilità, il mercato non è necessariamente ostile alle nuove emissioni, rating o non rating.
Lo dico perché è arrivata la prima emissione HY di eurobonds dall'inizio della crisi creditizia, dopo dunque 18 mesi in cui non se ne era vista alcuna e l'emittente è tutt'altro che ignoto al comparto.
E' andata abbastanza bene, nonostante il rating HY, tant'è che l'emittente ha rivisto al rialzo i quantitativi offerti.
UPDATE 1-Fresenius ups size of euro high yield bond -source
Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:53pm GMT
* 1st European high-yield issue since credit crisis began
* Size of euro tranche increased in sign of strong demand
* Flood of European high yield bonds not expected
By Claire Milhench and Natalie Harrison
LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - German healthcare group Fresenius SE increased the size of its planned high yield euro bond on Thursday, a source familiar with the deal said, in a sign of strong demand for the first issue of its kind in 18 months.
Fresenius (FREG_p.DE) plans to sell a 275 million euro ($361.5 million) bond, raised from an initial size of 200 million, to yield 10.25 percent at the lower range of the initial 10.25 to 10.5 percent range, the source said.
"A high yield deal gets upsized. I never thought I'd see that again," said one high yield bond trader in London. But investors are not expecting a flood of other high yield bond issues to follow in the footsteps of Fresenius.
"The market will be extremely discerning," said Robin Creswell, managing principal at Payden & Rygel Global Ltd. "This isn't a gate opening saying that the high yield market is now open for business."
The two-part deal from Fresenius, described by one investor as the darling of the high yield bond market, has long been anticipated to kick-start the European junk bond market, which has been closed to new issues since July 2007 when the credit crisis was still in its early stages.
Fresenius's planned dollar bond was unchanged at $500 million and around 10.5 percent, the source said.
"It hits all the sweet points for a high yield issuance - it's a nice size, people know this company well and it's at the top of the high yield spectrum. It's also healthcare, which is relatively non-cyclical," said James Gledhill, head of fixed income at New Star Asset Management.
Creswell agreed, saying that healthcare was attractive because it was the kind of sector that was likely to benefit from government spending to stimulate the economy, and the demographics were in its favour.
"It's also a BB so it is a notch away from investment grade and the most recent rating action was an upgrade. This company can control its costs -- it needs this money to expand and grow," said Creswell.
Moody's on Monday assigned a "junk" Ba1 rating to the planned bond issue. The company's senior unsecured rating is a speculative-grade BB by both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings.
TESTING THE WATER
Investors warned not to get too excited and that issuance would remain limited to solid high-yield names.
Quin Casey, a fund manager at Aviva Investors, said banks were testing the water with the Fresenius deal, assessing the strength of demand from investors.
"It's a good name to try to re-engineer some activity but at the end of the day you can't forget about what's going on in the macro picture. There's potential for more negative surprise," said Casey.
A successful Fresenius deal will not make it any easier for fallen angels -- companies that have been downgraded to "junk" status from investment-grade -- to tap the bond market, he said.
"I wouldn't say it is impossible but it will be tough for people to get comfortable with some of those names. The cost of funding for the treasurers would be substantially higher," he added.
Fresenius's planned 200 million euro bond is expected to yield 10.25 to 10.5 percent, while the yield on the $500 million bond is seen at around 10.5 percent, IFR said on Wednesday, citing market talk. Both bonds are expected to come at a discount to par.
The new bonds are priced cheaply relative to the existing bonds of Fresenius, which include a 500 million-euro bond maturing in 2013, another of the same size maturing in 2016 and a third which matures in 2011, investors said.
The spread on the new issue was estimated by investors at between 775 to 800 basis points over government bonds, compared with spreads over around 420 basis points on global power firm InterGen's [INTGN.UL] 150 million euro 10-year bond sold back in July 2007, the last high yield deal to be sold in Europe.
Deutsche Bank is the global coordinator on the deal, while JP Morgan, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas are joint bookrunners.
Lo dico perché è arrivata la prima emissione HY di eurobonds dall'inizio della crisi creditizia, dopo dunque 18 mesi in cui non se ne era vista alcuna e l'emittente è tutt'altro che ignoto al comparto.
E' andata abbastanza bene, nonostante il rating HY, tant'è che l'emittente ha rivisto al rialzo i quantitativi offerti.
UPDATE 1-Fresenius ups size of euro high yield bond -source
Thu Jan 15, 2009 2:53pm GMT
* 1st European high-yield issue since credit crisis began
* Size of euro tranche increased in sign of strong demand
* Flood of European high yield bonds not expected
By Claire Milhench and Natalie Harrison
LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - German healthcare group Fresenius SE increased the size of its planned high yield euro bond on Thursday, a source familiar with the deal said, in a sign of strong demand for the first issue of its kind in 18 months.
Fresenius (FREG_p.DE) plans to sell a 275 million euro ($361.5 million) bond, raised from an initial size of 200 million, to yield 10.25 percent at the lower range of the initial 10.25 to 10.5 percent range, the source said.
"A high yield deal gets upsized. I never thought I'd see that again," said one high yield bond trader in London. But investors are not expecting a flood of other high yield bond issues to follow in the footsteps of Fresenius.
"The market will be extremely discerning," said Robin Creswell, managing principal at Payden & Rygel Global Ltd. "This isn't a gate opening saying that the high yield market is now open for business."
The two-part deal from Fresenius, described by one investor as the darling of the high yield bond market, has long been anticipated to kick-start the European junk bond market, which has been closed to new issues since July 2007 when the credit crisis was still in its early stages.
Fresenius's planned dollar bond was unchanged at $500 million and around 10.5 percent, the source said.
"It hits all the sweet points for a high yield issuance - it's a nice size, people know this company well and it's at the top of the high yield spectrum. It's also healthcare, which is relatively non-cyclical," said James Gledhill, head of fixed income at New Star Asset Management.
Creswell agreed, saying that healthcare was attractive because it was the kind of sector that was likely to benefit from government spending to stimulate the economy, and the demographics were in its favour.
"It's also a BB so it is a notch away from investment grade and the most recent rating action was an upgrade. This company can control its costs -- it needs this money to expand and grow," said Creswell.
Moody's on Monday assigned a "junk" Ba1 rating to the planned bond issue. The company's senior unsecured rating is a speculative-grade BB by both Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings.
TESTING THE WATER
Investors warned not to get too excited and that issuance would remain limited to solid high-yield names.
Quin Casey, a fund manager at Aviva Investors, said banks were testing the water with the Fresenius deal, assessing the strength of demand from investors.
"It's a good name to try to re-engineer some activity but at the end of the day you can't forget about what's going on in the macro picture. There's potential for more negative surprise," said Casey.
A successful Fresenius deal will not make it any easier for fallen angels -- companies that have been downgraded to "junk" status from investment-grade -- to tap the bond market, he said.
"I wouldn't say it is impossible but it will be tough for people to get comfortable with some of those names. The cost of funding for the treasurers would be substantially higher," he added.
Fresenius's planned 200 million euro bond is expected to yield 10.25 to 10.5 percent, while the yield on the $500 million bond is seen at around 10.5 percent, IFR said on Wednesday, citing market talk. Both bonds are expected to come at a discount to par.
The new bonds are priced cheaply relative to the existing bonds of Fresenius, which include a 500 million-euro bond maturing in 2013, another of the same size maturing in 2016 and a third which matures in 2011, investors said.
The spread on the new issue was estimated by investors at between 775 to 800 basis points over government bonds, compared with spreads over around 420 basis points on global power firm InterGen's [INTGN.UL] 150 million euro 10-year bond sold back in July 2007, the last high yield deal to be sold in Europe.
Deutsche Bank is the global coordinator on the deal, while JP Morgan, Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas are joint bookrunners.
- Stato