Portafogli e Strategie (investimento) Dall'High Yield al Flight to Quality ... (Vol. IV): Cash is King

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Nel tentativo di attirare gli obbligazionisti retail, alcune grosse emittenti corporate tornano al taglio da 1000 euro e abbandonano il taglio da 50.000. In queste prime settimane del 2009, ben il 40% dei nuovi bond emesso sarebbe stato acquistato direttamente dalla clientela retail, anziché da fondi ed investitori professionali.

Si menzionano recenti emissioni di VW, Daimler, BMW, Deutsche Telekom, Bartlesmann...

VW Turns to Individuals for Bond Sales as Funds Flee (Update1)


By Esteban Duarte

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Some of Europe’s biggest borrowers are slicing bonds into pieces small enough to lure individual investors as institutions burned by the 18-month seizure in credit markets flee from corporate debt securities.

Volkswagen AG, Daimler AG and Bertelsmann AG, Europe’s largest media company, sold 4 billion euros ($5.2 billion) of bonds this year in denominations as small as 1,000 euros, down from 50,000 euros in 2008, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So-called retail investors bought as much as 40 percent of European bonds in 2009, double last year’s level, said Deutsche Bank AG, the biggest underwriter of international debt.

Companies are turning to individuals after more than $1 trillion of losses and writedowns at the world’s biggest financial institutions drove investors to the relative safety of government debt. The extra yield investment-grade company bonds pay compared with government securities widened to 4.08 percentage points, from 1.19 percentage points at the end of 2007, according to Merrill Lynch & Co.’s EMU Corporate Index.

The “consistency of the investor community” has “changed dramatically” in the past year and buying by individuals has become “massive,” Dirk Bauer, head of the debt capital markets team at Volkswagen Financial Services AG in Braunschweig, Germany, said in an e-mailed response to questions.

Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen, Europe’s largest carmaker, sold 1.5 billion euros of five-year notes. Stuttgart- based Daimler, the world’s largest truck manufacturer, offered 2 billion euros of five-year bonds, and Bertelsmann AG issued 500 million euros of notes due 2014. All three companies offered some of the debt in increments as small as 1,000 euros after selling securities for no less than 50,000 euros for at least two years.

‘High Market Demand’

Daimler issued the sale in smaller amounts because of “high market demand for corporate bonds by retail customers,” Brigitte Bertram, a spokeswoman for the company, said in an e-mailed response to questions.
Buying by individual investors has encouraged companies to borrow at a time when European stocks fell and yields on government bonds stayed near all-time lows. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index of European equities dropped 7.8 percent this year, while 10-year German bunds yielded 2.98 percent today, down from 3.91 percent a year ago.

Companies in Europe sold 69.3 billion euros of bonds this year, compared with 34.8 billion euros in the same period of 2008, Bloomberg data show.
“Strong demand from retail clients” is helping drive the increase in sales this year, said Pilar Gomez-Bravo, head of European credit at Lehman Brothers Asset Management in London, where she helps manage about $80 billion of fixed-income assets.

Record Spread

The spread between corporate and government debt yields climbed to an all-time high of 4.38 percentage points on Dec. 26, according to Merrill Lynch indexes.

“For retail investors, current yields are very good,” said Sven Kreitmair, a Munich-based credit analyst at UniCredit SpA. “These investors are mostly buy-and-hold and don’t care if the rating deteriorates as long as the bond gets paid back.”

Purchases by individuals helped to push corporate debt prices to a three-month high last week. The combination of increasing concerns about the worldwide recession and soaring defaults is now pulling prices down.
Moody’s Investors Service forecast on Jan. 14 that defaults will rise to 18.3 percent in Europe this year, from 1.1 percent at the end of 2008. The European Commission said Jan. 19 that the region’s economy will shrink for the first time in a decade. Almost a third of hedge funds will shut or merge, according to London-based IGS Group, which advises funds on raising money.

Bond Rally

The Markit iBoxx Euro Corporates Index, which measures the average price of 1,082 bonds with a face value of 985 billion euros, increased as much as 1.5 percent this year to a three- month high of 83.81. That compares with a record low of 80.39 reached Oct. 14.

The iBoxx index was at 83.41 as of 8:45 a.m. in London today, compared with 83.25 yesterday, the lowest level since Jan. 9. European corporate bonds fell 9.1 percent in 2008, the index shows.

The further into 2009 we get, “the bigger the role of retail investors will be,” said Guido Greim, managing director responsible for credit sales at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt.

Some companies consistently sell bonds in increments to attract private investors, according to Bloomberg data. Bonn- based Deutsche Telekom AG, Germany’s biggest phone company, electric utility E.ON AG based in Dusseldorf and Munich-based Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the biggest luxury carmaker, sold bonds in 1,000-euro portions this year and in 2008.
Bertelsmann has “taken advantage” of individual buying to help its sale on Jan. 12, said Henrik Pahls, senior vice- president for corporate finance and investor relations at the Guetersloh, Germany-based company.

Volkswagen plans to continue tapping private investors following its Jan. 7 bond sale, said Bauer, the capital markets executive. Demand from individuals “influences positively the performance of outstanding bonds and consequently has an impact on the pricing for a potential new issue,” he said.
 
Il distressed ratio dei bond HY (oltre 1000 bp di differenziale di rendimento sui Tresuries di analoghe caratteristiche e 50% di probabilità stimate di defaultare nel biennio successivo) era salita all'85% del totale delle emissioni al 15 dicembre 2008 e risulta in calo al 70% al 15 gennaio 2009.

Si tratta cmq di percentuali le quali, dovessero rivelarsi di assestamento, implicherebbero una percentuale di default nei due anni del 35% dei bond HY, qualcosa in meno nelle classi più elevate dell'HY, molto di più in quelle inferiori...

Distress Ratio Pulls Back In January, Article Says

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Jan. 23, 2009--After hitting the astronomical record high of 85% this past month, the Standard & Poor's distress ratio fell to 70% as of Jan. 15, said an article published today by Standard & Poor's.

Despite receding, the distress ratio is at its second-highest level since the series began in October 2002, and it's considerably higher than the 11.1% in January 2008. This runs alongside the recent decline in the
speculative-grade spread, which finished at 1,514 basis points (bps) on Jan. 15, down from 1,715 bps a month earlier. (Distressed credits are
speculative-grade-rated issues that have option-adjusted spreads of more than 1,000 bps relative to Treasuries.)

Among distressed bonds, the total number of rated companies with issues trading with spreads of 1,000 bps and higher is currently 482, down from 540 this past month, according to the article, titled "U.S. Distressed Debt Monitor: Distress Ratio Inches Back From Its Record High (Premium)."

"Alongside a decrease in the distress ratio, the amount of affected debt
fell from this past month's all-time high of $398 billion, to $299 billion in
January," said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor's Global Fixed Income
Research Group. "Based on debt volume, the media and entertainment, oil and gas exploration and production, and high technology sectors together accounted for 40% of the total debt."
 
Riprende un attimo fiato il mercato delle emissioni HY USA nel gennaio 2009. Siamo a 3,4 mld $, il massimo valore dopo gli 8,4 mld $ in emissioni HY di giugno e dopo un periodo di emissioni ridotte ai minimi termini a seguito del default Lehman.

E' presto per dire che si può tornare ad investire con tranquillità in questo comparto: occorrerà che si sia percepito un picco nel default rate ed insieme un rilassamento della situazione della liquidità... :rolleyes: ;)

Gli emittenti HY di maggiore qualità (nella fascia BB) offrono oggi in USA rendimenti nell'ordine dell'11-12% ed è da vedere se realmente - come sostiene un analista sentito dalla Reuters - questi rendimenti risultino attractive rispetto all'8% offerto da un bond corporate IG.

Il 20% di rendimento espresso dalle quotazioni sul mercato secondario che dovrebbero pagare gli emittenti a rating più basso è tale da porli oggi al di fuori del mercato.

Va preso con cautela il raffronto fra il default rate atteso nel 2009 e quello della Grande Depressione del 1929 (fa un po' ridere, visto che i bond HY sono un'invenzione molto più recente...:D)


US junk bond sales jump 75 pct to $3.4 bln in January

Fri Jan 23, 2009 9:36pm GMT

By Dena Aubin
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond sales have jumped 75 percent in January to $3.4 billion, a sign that riskier assets are joining in a general credit market thaw.

January's total is the highest since June, when $8.4 billion in high-yield bonds were sold, according to Thomson Reuters data. Just $1.9 billion were sold in January 2008.

Junk bonds have rallied since December as record high yields above 22 percent attracted cash into the market. Junk, or high-yield bonds, posted a 7.47 percent total return in December and have gained 4.66 percent in the month to date, according to Merrill Lynch data.

Low interest rates on safe-haven U.S. Treasuries and money market funds and last year's massive losses in equities have prompted investors to move cash into high-yield bonds, strategists said.

"Investors are increasingly recognizing the benefits of yield product," said Peter Toal, head of high-yield capital markets, Americas at Barclays Capital in New York. "Buying high-yield today with double-digit yields to some investors, can be pretty attractive when they're not earning anything in the money markets."

Junk bond sales evaporated late last year as the worst credit crisis in generations caused investors to shun risk. With many Wall Street dealers scrambling to curb their own risk exposure, the amount of junk bonds on dealers' inventories was also cut to the bare bones.

Now that the market is rallying, new issues are the only place many investors can find large blocks of bonds.

"If accounts have cash and want to put a meaningful amount to work, they're finding that opportunity in the new issue market," said Toal.

Junk bonds are a key financing source for hundreds of companies and the shuttered market had raised fears of a steep rise in defaults as firms lost access to cash. But the riskiest, most distressed companies would still have a hard time selling debt, investors said.

"There is demand out there, but people aren't necessarily looking to take risk," said Andrew Feltus, portfolio manager at Pioneeer Investment in Boston.

Since new issues are coming from better-quality, high-yield companies, they are offering yields of about 11-12 percent, compared with the 20 percent seen on riskier bonds, he noted.

"It's something companies can afford, but it's still a relatively attractive yield compared to investment grade at say, 8 percent," he said.

INVESTORS CAUTIOUS

Investors are cautious as high-yield defaults are poised to more than triple over the next year. Moody's Investors Service last week said the U.S. default rate will likely rise to 15.3 percent in the next year from 4.4 percent at the end of 2008.

The all-time high was 15.9 percent during the Great Depression.
Still, investors are betting that many high-yielding bonds will escape default, paying them to take the risk.

"It's pretty easy even if you have a very high default rate to get a double-digit yield," said Pioneer's Feltus.

In a sign of strong demand, several of this week's deals were boosted in size and prices rose after the sale.

An issue of 9 percent notes due in 2015 sold by wireless tower operator Crown Castle International Corp on Thursday at 90.42 cents on the dollar rose to 93.375 cents on the dollar on Friday, according to MarketAxess.
High-yield bonds still face headwind this year, notably a widely expected slump in earnings, sluggish economy and double-digit defaults.

Borrowers also may be taking advantage of the ebullient market before the Treasury begins selling debt to pay for its massive financial bailouts, strategists said.

"At the back of the mind of any CFO in Corporate America is the U.S. Treasury is going to have to come in and issue a massive amount of debt," said Scott MacDonald, head of research at Aladdin Capital in Stamford, Connecticut.

"One of the concerns I would have as a corporate CFO is I want to get in there before there is more government stuff coming into the market and crowding me out," he said. (Reporting by Dena Aubin; editing by Gary Crosse;)
 
Gli emittenti HY di maggiore qualità (nella fascia BB) offrono oggi in USA rendimenti nell'ordine dell'11-12% ed è da vedere se realmente - come sostiene un analista sentito dalla Reuters - questi rendimenti risultino attractive rispetto all'8% offerto da un bond corporate IG.

:lol::lol::lol: Non credo che li preferiscano con quello spread indicato.
 
Quella indistinguibilità del lato A dal lato B che contraddistingue alcuni simpatici ANAListi nordici ... trova un'ennesima conferma in un recente report sui bond monitorati, in cui i nostri, dopo aver spinto certi bond HY con i loro BUY suggerendone l'acquisto fino al momento in cui esprimevano già rendimenti da default ed invitando a guardare ai mitici "ghiotti cedoloni" piuttosto che ai rendimenti esageratamente elevati, tipiche opportunità speculative, adesso bastonano senza pietà quegli stessi bond sui quali, quando erano già attorno ai 40/100, hanno intrepidamente cambiato la raccomandazione da BUY a SELL ... :-o

Parlo di NXP, di INEOS, ai quali da poco si è aggiunto anche Rhodia, per i quali i nostri amici sono qui a confermare, nel report che si allega, che si tratta di cartastraccia, sulla quale ovviamente reiterano il SELL dato a suo tempo... :cool:

Il prossimo bond, meglio farselo indicare direttamente dal vu cumprà... :titanic:
 

Allegati

Quella indistinguibilità del lato A dal lato B che contraddistingue alcuni simpatici ANAListi nordici ... trova un'ennesima conferma in un recente report sui bond monitorati, in cui i nostri, dopo aver spinto certi bond HY con i loro BUY suggerendone l'acquisto fino al momento in cui esprimevano già rendimenti da default ed invitando a guardare ai mitici "ghiotti cedoloni" piuttosto che ai rendimenti esageratamente elevati, tipiche opportunità speculative, adesso bastonano senza pietà quegli stessi bond sui quali, quando erano già attorno ai 40/100, hanno intrepidamente cambiato la raccomandazione da BUY a SELL ... :-o

Parlo di NXP, di INEOS, ai quali da poco si è aggiunto anche Rhodia, per i quali i nostri amici sono qui a confermare, nel report che si allega, che si tratta di cartastraccia, sulla quale ovviamente reiterano il SELL dato a suo tempo... :cool:

Il prossimo bond, meglio farselo indicare direttamente dal vu cumprà... :titanic:

Quelli lì sono solo bravi a farti comprare sui massimi e a vendere sui minimi. Pochi mesi fa ineos era il non plus ultra mentre ora è carta straccia. Idem per nxp.
Che figli di p.
 
Quelli lì sono solo bravi a farti comprare sui massimi e a vendere sui minimi. Pochi mesi fa ineos era il non plus ultra mentre ora è carta straccia. Idem per nxp.
Che figli di p.


Su TDC e NTCH, sui quali gli è venuto fuori un BUY azzeccato (ogni tanto capita anche a loro di andare fuori dal seminato) sono già a dire che sì, loro sono ancora molto bullish, però il potenziale di crescita cosa vuoi che sia, sul TDC 2012 sarà di 3-4 punti al max.

Vedrai, tempo qualche settimana e diranno: "cazzo, 'sto bond HY non rende più una mazza, dove vuoi che vada" ... ed in sostituzione ti daranno qualche bell'affare che piace a loro ... :cool:

Come hanno fatto in qualche rara circostanza in cui, per errore, gli ha detto bene... :D
 
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