Obbligazioni in default Default Season 2009

Montreal (canadaTECH.INFO) – December 12, 2008 - Mecachrome International Inc. (TSX: MCH) announced today that it has obtained Court protection under the Companies' Creditor Arrangement Act (Canada) (CCAA) and that its French subsidiaries have obtained similar protection under the safeguard procedure (procédure de sauvegarde) in France.
Mecachrome said these filings were made in the context of its board's ongoing review of Mecachrome's strategic alternatives to improve Mecachrome's liquidity and financial position and reduce its financing costs.
In addition, Mecachrome disclosed that it is in advanced discussions with potential lenders in order to conclude a secured debtor-in-possession (DIP) financing to support it during the restructuring.​
Mecachrome has retained RBC Capital Markets to act as its financial advisor and Ernst & Young Inc. will serve as Court-appointed monitor during the CCAA process in order to assist Mecachrome throughout the restructuring.
While under the CCAA protection, Mecachrome will continue its efforts to recapitalize.​
"Our goal is to allow Mecachrome to continue to operate as a going concern for the benefit of all those affected, including our many loyal employees, customers and suppliers. We believe that the steps we are taking today, combined with the financing we are in the process of finalizing, will provide us with the ability to protect the value of the business for our stakeholders," said Christian Jacqmin, President & CEO of Mecachrome.
"Today's filings are the result of industry-wide challenges in our business segments, combined with Mecachrome's leverage and its inability to raise capital in the current market environment. The steps we initiated today will allow Mecachrome to make the necessary changes to ensure its long-term viability."​
Montreal based Mecachrome is a designer, developer and manufacturer of complex precision-engineered components for aircraft and automotive applications, including aerostructural and aircraft engine components, high-end automobile engine components and motor racing engines.
Since 1937, Mecachrome has established a significant presence and global reputation in certain high-precision sectors of the aerospace, automotive and industrial equipment industries, providing services primarily to original equipment manufacturers.
The company currently operates 11 state-of-the-art facilities, principally in France and Canada.​
 
fonte : http://www.soldionline.it/obbligazioni/settimana-del-bond/bce-un-taglio-che-non-sorprende_pag2

HIGH YIELD


La notizia della settimana è il fallimento della canadese Nortel Networks, protagonista del boom internet e telecom della fine degli anni 90 con Motorola, Alcatel, Lucent, Motorola ed Ericsson. L’azienda, un decennio fa un gigante globale, ha visto ridimensionare il proprio ruolo negli ultimi anni e non è riuscita a sormontare l’ennesima crisi. Oggi, l’azienda ha bond esclusivamente in dollari per complessivi 4.100 milioni. Le più recenti quotazioni dei titoli in default sono comprese tra 10 e 20 centesimi del nominale.
 
Ed anche Qimonda è andata in default... ricordo si era ipotizzata una fusione fra la casa madre Infineon e NXP nel tentativo di generare sinergie e di ridurre la sovracapacità produttiva del comparto in Europa, ma poi le cose hanno preso un'altro binario...

UPDATE 2-German chipmaker Qimonda insolvent

Fri Jan 23, 2009 5:52am EST

* Qimonda files for insolvency
* Qimonda says aims to keep major part of business running
* Shares in parent company Infineon down 6 pct (Adds Qimonda statement, CEO comment, analyst comment)

By Irene Preisinger and Nicola Leske
MUNICH/FRANKFURT, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Loss-making memory chip maker Qimonda (QI.N) has filed for insolvency in an effort to restructure more quickly, as a 325 million euro ($421 million) rescue agreed in late 2008 failed to be completed in time to save the company.

Qimonda said in a statement on Friday that it had failed to hammer out all the details of the rescue package in time and a massive decline in prices for memory chips, combined with deteriorating conditions for access to capital forced its hand.

Qimonda Chief Executive Kin Wah Loh said under German law filing for insolvency allowed the company to accelerate its restructuring process and "put the company back on a solid foundation".

Loh said he aimed to restructure major parts of Qimonda. "We expect to continue our business with the support of a provisional insolvency administrator."

Shares in parent company Infineon (IFXGn.DE) fell almost 12 percent after the news but recouped some losses and were down 4.90 percent at 0.68 euros by 1005 GMT. United States-listed Qimonda shares have lost more than 90 percent in value in the space of a year.

Infineon has said should Qimonda go bust it would be faced with certain liabilities, such as the repayment of state subsidies of around 280 million euros.

Like its competitors Micron (MU.N) and Elpida (6665.T), Qimonda has been struggling with a slump in prices for dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips used mainly in personal computers and consumer electronics.

The news of its insolvency came on the heels of news that Samsung (005930.KS), the world's top maker of memory chips, posted its first-ever quarterly loss on Friday.

The German state of Saxony, home to Qimonda's biggest production plant in Dresden, and Infineon had agreed late last year on a rescue package with the help of an unnamed investment bank in Portugal, where Qimonda also has a plant.

Qimonda had warned on Dec. 1 that it would face liquidity shortfalls in the first quarter of 2009 should talks on help for its financial condition not pan out and the industry environment continued to deteriorate.

But that rescue package did not manage to cover Qimonda's financial needs. On Thursday, several sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that Qimonda needed an additional 300 million euros in rescue funds.
A German analyst who declined to be named said he was not surprised that Qimonda had filed for insolvency.

"They burnt about 300 to 400 million euros in cash every quarter: how was the rescue package supposed to cover that?", the analyst said.

Several analysts had said they expected the federal government to step in at the last minute to rescue Qimonda because 2009 is an election year.
In August voters will be asked to vote on a new government in the state of Saxony, nicknamed "Silicon Saxony" for its encouragement of technology companies such as AMD (AMD.N) and Infineon to invest there, and a general election is scheduled for September.

Saxony had agreed to help Qimonda because of fears that its insolvency would drag down the entire region, which is largely dependent on the chip industry.

(Reporting by Irene Preisinger in Munich, Gernot Heller in Munich and Nicola Leske in Frankfurt; Editing by Rupert Winchester)
 
non sapevo dove postarlo, chiedo eventualmente ai moderatori di spostarlo (o cancellarlo, sarà un post alquanto confuso... :D)

An Empirical Analysis of Bond Recovery Rates


Division of Research and Statistics
The Federal Reserve Board
20th and C Streets, NW
Washington, D.C. 20551

December 2004

siccome ho sempre osteggiato i tentativi di "fare statistica" nei default, al solito predico bene e razzolo male... :lol:

A frictionless, structural view of default has the unrealistic implication
that recovery rates on bonds, measured at default, should be close to 100
percent. This suggests that standard “frictions” such as default delays,
corporate-valuation jumps, and bankruptcy costs may be important drivers
of recovery rates.
A structural view also suggests the existence of
nonlinearities in the empirical relationship between recovery rates and
their determinants. We explore these implications empirically and find
direct evidence of jumps, and also evidence of the predicted nonlinearities.
In particular, recovery rates increase as economic conditions improve from
low levels, but decrease as economic conditions become robust.
This
suggests that improving economic conditions tend to boost firm values,
but firms may tend to default during particularly robust times only when
they have experienced large, negative shocks.


ed a primo impatto, non sembrerebbe necessario condurre una ricerca così strutturata (tutti i default dal 1982 al 2002) per arrivare a queste conclusioni peraltro abbastanza condivisibili...

The credit risk of corporate debt has two components: the likelihood of default
and the recovery rate given default. Understanding the determinants of these risks is
critical for the design and implementation of debt pricing models and risk management strategies

the empirical reality that
recovery rates at default (or RAD)—measured by bond price at default as percent of par
value—for nonfinancial corporations over the past two decades have averaged only about
40 percent with a standard deviation of about 28 percent
.

The main sample
consists of over 1,300 nonconvertible public bonds issued by U.S. nonfinancial firms that
defaulted between 1983 and 2002, inclusive
. The regression sample sizes depend on the
specification, with the smallest sample being about 600 observations. Focusing on
recovery rates at default is reasonable, since such rates are the actual recovery rates for
investors that choose to sell their bonds at the time when an issuer defaults. Indeed,
many investors do sell their bonds at default, as indicated by the active secondary market
for defaulted bonds (see, for example, Altman 2003).

These findings also complement the results from other studies of recovery rates.
In the most exhaustive study to date, Acharya et al. (2003) analyze recovery rates
measured at default (RAD) and at resolution (RAR), where resolutions include
bankruptcy emergences, liquidations, and out-of-court restructurings. They find that
RAD increases with firm and industry financial performance, bond size, and bond
seniority, and that RAR increases with industry financial performance, bond seniority,
and less time-in-default.
(i fallimenti veloci premiano il recovery rate)

The existence of a macroeconomic factor in recovery rates is an important issue
for the design of credit risk models. Our results not only show that such a factor exists,
they also suggest strongly that the relationship between macroeconomic conditions and
RAD takes a particular nonlinear form. RAD increases as economic conditions improve
from relatively low levels, but it decreases as economic conditions become particularly
robust.
As a result, while defaults may be rare during very robust times, recovery rates
may be relatively low. The intuition is that firms may tend to default during particularly
robust periods only when hit by very bad shocks, which in turn depress recovery rates.
This is surprising, since it implies that an idiosyncratic factor (a firm-level jump) affects
the functional form of the relationship between RAD and the systematic factor through
the conditionality of default.

Figure 1 plots annual recovery rates (left scale) against two commonly-used,
annual measures of macroeconomic conditions (right scale) from 1983-2002. The figure
highlights, with shaded regions, the NBER-defined recession periods: July 1990-March
1991, and March 2001-November 2001. The series in the figure are denoted as follows:
the diamonds represent the weighted average RAD of nonfinancial straight bonds by
default year (using defaulted amounts as weights); the triangles denote the deviation of
annual real GDP growth rate from its mean of 3.3 percent; and, the dots indicate the
percentage deviation of annual real GDP from its trend (trend GDP is calculated using
Hodrick-Prescott filter).
Aggregate recovery rates appear cyclical at times, except that they are very low in
particularly robust periods. The average RAD for recession periods was 31 percent,
while the average for expansion periods was 42 percent. However, the lowest average
annual RAD of 20 percent was in 2000—a year of robust economic growth.
This
nonlinearity dampens the generally positive relation between recovery rates and
macroeconomic conditions. Indeed, the correlation between RAD and real GDP growth
is just 0.2, and the correlation between RAD and detrended GDP is -0.4.20 This confirms
the weak correlations found in previous papers (for example, Altman et al. (2004) and
Acharya et al. (2003)), and suggests that the empirical relationship between RAD and
macroeconomic variables may be nonlinear.

The coefficients on the industry profit margin are all
positive and significant, with the point estimates indicating that a one percentage point
increase in industry profit margin leads to about a 40 basis point increase in RAD. The
coefficients on the dummy variable for whether the bond was issued by a firm in the
energy or utility industry are all significant (at the 95 percent confidence level), with
point estimates suggesting that RADs for such firms are at least 22 percentage points
higher, ceteris paribus, than RADs for other firms. The higher level of recovery rates on
bonds issued by energy and utility firms is well known, and we have little to say about
why this is the case.

The results, shown in Table 6, indicate that telecom and steel industry bonds have
lower recovery rates.
The coefficients on the telecom dummy variable are all significant
(at the 95 percent confidence level), and they suggest that RADs on telecom bonds are
about 20 percentage points lower, ceteris paribus, than on other bonds (the omitted
category).
The coefficients on the steel industry dummy are significant in two of the
three specifications, and they suggest that RADs on steel bonds are about 11 percentage
points lower, ceteris paribus, than on other bonds
(the omitted category).

default 01.jpg
 
secondo post, collegato: lì si faceva un po' di teoria sulla valutazione dei Recovery ipotetici a default, con analisi di settore, momento economico, etc. (e quindi è più interessante per riflettere sul fatto che non esiste un "dato" incontrovertibile, i bond sono a X, che è quotazione da default: dipende dal settore, momento economico, etc. Le variazioni sono molto marcate...).

Questo è più semplice, e risponde alla domanda più frequente: ma quanto si ricava, in media, alla fine della storia (quello che veniva definito RAR, prima...)?

default 02.jpg
 
secondo post, collegato: lì si faceva un po' di teoria sulla valutazione dei Recovery ipotetici a default, con analisi di settore, momento economico, etc. (e quindi è più interessante per riflettere sul fatto che non esiste un "dato" incontrovertibile, i bond sono a X, che è quotazione da default: dipende dal settore, momento economico, etc. Le variazioni sono molto marcate...).

Questo è più semplice, e risponde alla domanda più frequente: ma quanto si ricava, in media, alla fine della storia (quello che veniva definito RAR, prima...)?

:clap::clap::clap:
 
mi scuso con i moderatori: dai prossimi post si torna all'oggetto vero del 3d, la segnalazione dei default.

Ma prima uno sguardo alla sfera di cristallo... ;) :(

Lear, Chemtura, others may face debt restructuring

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Lear Corp (LEA.N), Chemtura Corp (CEM.N) and Rite Aid Corp (RAD.N) are among companies that may need to undergo a debt restructuring or risk defaulting on bonds as they come due in the coming year, Morgan Stanley said on Friday.
Around $100 billion of bonds and bank debt is set to mature in 2009 and 2010, and while many companies may succeed in refinancing or paying back the debt, credit markets remain closed to the lowest-rated firms, Morgan Stanley analysts Jocelyn Chu and Greg Peters wrote in a report.
"The lack of new-issue financing will persist, in our view, resulting in limited access for higher quality BB-rated credits and none for CCC-rated issuers," they said.
"CCC" is the lowest ratings tier above default.
"In the wake of a global recession, the scarcity of capital has left even companies that have liquidity today to begrudgingly contend with the real possibility of liquidity issues tomorrow," the analysts said.
As a result, "CCC"-rated companies with negative free cash flow and bonds coming due will likely need to restructure their debt or risk a default, and potential bankruptcy, they added.
Morgan Stanley identified 14 companies with these ratings that also have negative free cash flow and maturing debt.
These include Lear, Chemtura, Rite Aid, Charter Communications Inc (CHTR.O), Smurfit-Stone Container Corp (SSCC.O), Pliant Corp (PLIA.PK) and Abitibi-Consolidated and Bowater Inc, both part of AbitibiBowater Inc (ABH.N).
XM Satellite Radio Holdings (SIRI.O), General Growth Properties GGP.N, American Media Operations, Muzak Holdings LLC, Broder Brothers Co BRODE.UL, and Duane Reade Holdings Inc OKHLPD.UL also fit the criteria, Morgan Stanley said.
"We do not suggest imminent default risk for these issues as other alternatives exist including asset sales, debt-for-equity swaps or debt exchanges," the analysts said.
"That said, we argue that the incremental benefits of these alternatives decline in effectiveness as we head deeper into this recession." (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by James Dalgleish)
 
mi scuso con i moderatori: dai prossimi post si torna all'oggetto vero del 3d, la segnalazione dei default.

Ma prima uno sguardo alla sfera di cristallo... ;) :(

Lear, Chemtura, others may face debt restructuring

NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Lear Corp (LEA.N), Chemtura Corp (CEM.N) and Rite Aid Corp (RAD.N) are among companies that may need to undergo a debt restructuring or risk defaulting on bonds as they come due in the coming year, Morgan Stanley said on Friday.
Around $100 billion of bonds and bank debt is set to mature in 2009 and 2010, and while many companies may succeed in refinancing or paying back the debt, credit markets remain closed to the lowest-rated firms, Morgan Stanley analysts Jocelyn Chu and Greg Peters wrote in a report.
"The lack of new-issue financing will persist, in our view, resulting in limited access for higher quality BB-rated credits and none for CCC-rated issuers," they said.
"CCC" is the lowest ratings tier above default.
"In the wake of a global recession, the scarcity of capital has left even companies that have liquidity today to begrudgingly contend with the real possibility of liquidity issues tomorrow," the analysts said.
As a result, "CCC"-rated companies with negative free cash flow and bonds coming due will likely need to restructure their debt or risk a default, and potential bankruptcy, they added.
Morgan Stanley identified 14 companies with these ratings that also have negative free cash flow and maturing debt.
These include Lear, Chemtura, Rite Aid, Charter Communications Inc (CHTR.O), Smurfit-Stone Container Corp (SSCC.O), Pliant Corp (PLIA.PK) and Abitibi-Consolidated and Bowater Inc, both part of AbitibiBowater Inc (ABH.N).
XM Satellite Radio Holdings (SIRI.O), General Growth Properties GGP.N, American Media Operations, Muzak Holdings LLC, Broder Brothers Co BRODE.UL, and Duane Reade Holdings Inc OKHLPD.UL also fit the criteria, Morgan Stanley said.
"We do not suggest imminent default risk for these issues as other alternatives exist including asset sales, debt-for-equity swaps or debt exchanges," the analysts said.
"That said, we argue that the incremental benefits of these alternatives decline in effectiveness as we head deeper into this recession." (Reporting by Karen Brettell; Editing by James Dalgleish)

Smurfit-Stone è stato anche indicato come strong buy da ferdinando80 sul FOL... direi che praticamente è spacciato... :D
 
Smurfit-Stone è stato anche indicato come strong buy da ferdinando80 sul FOL... direi che praticamente è spacciato... :D

:D

ho pensato la stessa cosa, e messo in watch il titolo per non perdermi Lunedì l'annuncio... :lol:

Io seguo anche General Growth Properties, mi sembra strano che sia sfuggito su WS. Mi viene voglia di approfondire... :cool:
 
Smurfit-Stone è stato anche indicato come strong buy da ferdinando80 sul FOL... direi che praticamente è spacciato... :D

:D

ho pensato la stessa cosa, e messo in watch il titolo per non perdermi Lunedì l'annuncio... :lol:

andata:

Smurfit-Stone Files for Reorganization in U.S. and Canada

ovviamente, al FOL non interessa che un multinick (siamo almeno a 5 in pochi mesi...) pompi dei titoli falliti in continuazione... :lol:
 

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