generali1984
Forumer storico
sono d'accordo , ma resto del parere che bisogna fermarsi con la testa , parlo di speculazione di Hedge e banche , delevereggiare ( che brutto!) tutto il sistema
e fare una completa pulizia
Don't Worry Be Happy - Volkswagen
- Creatore Discussione generali1984
- Data di Inizio
sono d'accordo , ma resto del parere che bisogna fermarsi con la testa , parlo di speculazione di Hedge e banche , delevereggiare ( che brutto!) tutto il sistema
e fare una completa pulizia
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
woolloomooloo
Forumer storico
accadeva 88 anni fa.. ma....sembra oggi
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
ora realizzano qualcosa:smile:
Porsche offers to settle VW hedging trades
By Richard Milne in London
Published: October 29 2008 08:33 | Last updated: October 29 2008 12:10
Porsche continued the extraordinary rollercoaster ride in Volkswagen’s shares when it said on Wednesday it would sell 5 per cent of VW to try to avoid “further market distortions” that had threatened the survival of some hedge funds.
Porsche, which sparked panic-buying among hedge funds by revealing at the weekend that it held up to 74.1 per cent in VW directly or indirectly, said it would settle hedging transactions up to 5 per cent in an attempt to nearly double the free float in Europe’s largest carmaker.
VW’s shares, which had quadrupled on Monday and Tuesday alone to make it the second-largest company in the world by value, fell 41 per cent to €551.09. But that would still leave Porsche booking a handsome profit on any sale as it has said in the past that the average buying price for its VW stake was €70-€100. Shares in Porsche were 34 per cent higher at €61.69.
Max Warburton, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, said: “Porsche are set to shock the financial community yet again by making money – lots of money – out of this situation.”
The surge in the German carmaker’s share price was triggered by Porsche’s revelation on Sunday it had a much larger interest in the carmaker than many traders had realised, sparking panic among hedge funds which had bet on VW’s share price falling. Porsche’s enlarged holding meant that there was a free float of only 5.8 per cent — the state of Lower Saxony has a 20.1 per cent stake — which sent traders rushing to cover short positions by buying stock from a shrinking pool of available shares.
The squeeze on short-sellers is thought by many market participants to be the biggest in history and is likely to lead to large losses at many traders and perhaps even the failure of some hedge funds.
Some leading investors – led by DWS, Germany’s largest fund manager – have said that Porsche has manipulated the market. But Porsche said on Wednesday that it “denies all responsibility for these market distortions and for the resulting risks to which the short sellers have exposed themselves.” In a statement headlined: “Short sellers responsible for extreme price movements in Volkswagen”, Porsche said it wished to point out that the applicable capital markets law provisions had been “complied with at all times”.
Porsche said on Sunday that it held a 42.6 per cent equity stake, up from a previously-disclosed 35 per cent. In addition, it holds options over 31.5 per cent of VW shares but these settle into cash rather than convert into shares. Under German law, cash-settled options do not need to be disclosed.
Regulators worldwide, including the Financial Services Authority in the UK, are grappling with how and whether to regulate cash-settled options.
Bafin, Germany’s financial regulator, has said it is monitoring VW’s share price movements but has not launched a formal investigation. It has underlined that Porsche’s non-disclosure of its cash-settled options was legal.
VW’s share price closed at €210 on Friday before soaring as high as €1,005 on Tuesday.
Its fall on Wednesday meant the Dax 30 index of leading shares fell 2 per cent even though all other 29 members apart from VW rose, most of them by more than 10 per cent.
As a result of the distortion, Deutsche Börse, which operates the Frankfurt stock exchange, said late on Tuesday it would limit VW’s weight in the index, currently at 27 per cent, to 10 per cent.
Porsche offers to settle VW hedging trades
By Richard Milne in London
Published: October 29 2008 08:33 | Last updated: October 29 2008 12:10
Porsche continued the extraordinary rollercoaster ride in Volkswagen’s shares when it said on Wednesday it would sell 5 per cent of VW to try to avoid “further market distortions” that had threatened the survival of some hedge funds.
Porsche, which sparked panic-buying among hedge funds by revealing at the weekend that it held up to 74.1 per cent in VW directly or indirectly, said it would settle hedging transactions up to 5 per cent in an attempt to nearly double the free float in Europe’s largest carmaker.
VW’s shares, which had quadrupled on Monday and Tuesday alone to make it the second-largest company in the world by value, fell 41 per cent to €551.09. But that would still leave Porsche booking a handsome profit on any sale as it has said in the past that the average buying price for its VW stake was €70-€100. Shares in Porsche were 34 per cent higher at €61.69.
Max Warburton, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, said: “Porsche are set to shock the financial community yet again by making money – lots of money – out of this situation.”
The surge in the German carmaker’s share price was triggered by Porsche’s revelation on Sunday it had a much larger interest in the carmaker than many traders had realised, sparking panic among hedge funds which had bet on VW’s share price falling. Porsche’s enlarged holding meant that there was a free float of only 5.8 per cent — the state of Lower Saxony has a 20.1 per cent stake — which sent traders rushing to cover short positions by buying stock from a shrinking pool of available shares.
The squeeze on short-sellers is thought by many market participants to be the biggest in history and is likely to lead to large losses at many traders and perhaps even the failure of some hedge funds.
Some leading investors – led by DWS, Germany’s largest fund manager – have said that Porsche has manipulated the market. But Porsche said on Wednesday that it “denies all responsibility for these market distortions and for the resulting risks to which the short sellers have exposed themselves.” In a statement headlined: “Short sellers responsible for extreme price movements in Volkswagen”, Porsche said it wished to point out that the applicable capital markets law provisions had been “complied with at all times”.
Porsche said on Sunday that it held a 42.6 per cent equity stake, up from a previously-disclosed 35 per cent. In addition, it holds options over 31.5 per cent of VW shares but these settle into cash rather than convert into shares. Under German law, cash-settled options do not need to be disclosed.
Regulators worldwide, including the Financial Services Authority in the UK, are grappling with how and whether to regulate cash-settled options.
Bafin, Germany’s financial regulator, has said it is monitoring VW’s share price movements but has not launched a formal investigation. It has underlined that Porsche’s non-disclosure of its cash-settled options was legal.
VW’s share price closed at €210 on Friday before soaring as high as €1,005 on Tuesday.
Its fall on Wednesday meant the Dax 30 index of leading shares fell 2 per cent even though all other 29 members apart from VW rose, most of them by more than 10 per cent.
As a result of the distortion, Deutsche Börse, which operates the Frankfurt stock exchange, said late on Tuesday it would limit VW’s weight in the index, currently at 27 per cent, to 10 per cent.
generali1984
Forumer storico
il BVZG (buon vecchio zio Gipa) è onniscente 
in realtà egli non esiste , è un ologramma quantum tridimensionale generato da un computer di una navicella Asgard atterrata sul nostro pianeta 12500 anni fa per rottura del sistema propulsivo ,da allora vaga sulla terra disegnando grafici rialzisti e ribassisti , i più famosi li ha realizzati a Nazca , un tantino ingombranti ma di indubbio effetto
in realtà egli non esiste , è un ologramma quantum tridimensionale generato da un computer di una navicella Asgard atterrata sul nostro pianeta 12500 anni fa per rottura del sistema propulsivo ,da allora vaga sulla terra disegnando grafici rialzisti e ribassisti , i più famosi li ha realizzati a Nazca , un tantino ingombranti ma di indubbio effetto
Ultima modifica:
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
il BVZG (buon vecchio zio Gipa) è onniscente
in realtà egli non esiste , è un ologramma quantum tridimensionale generato da un computer di una navicella Asgard atterrata sul nostro pianeta 12500 anni fa per rottura del sistema propulsivo ,da allora vaga sulla terra disegnando grafici rialzisti e ribassisti , i più famosi li ha realizzati a Nazca , un tantino ingombranti ma di indubbio effetto
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
una curiosa storia ,con delle similarità al caso porc, degli anni 20 , con acclusa la morale merikana
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
The Stutz Motor Car Company
There was once a fine American sports car company called Stutz. It made beautiful – even legendary cars. The cars had a reputation for dependability, reliability and punishing speed. I know they look antique – but these were really quick for their day – and they won big races like Indianapolis and the Le Mans 24 hour race. Le Mans (at least) is an event that Porsche likes to win. Here is their 1913 Stutz Bearcat – a car that was modified, overpowered etc and won races into the mid 1920s.
Anyway Stutz was controlled by Alan Aloysius Ryan through family holdings. For reasons mostly to do with improved mass production by competitors the company found itself under pressure. Short sellers could smell blood. And they shorted the stock. And shorted some more.
Through this Alan Aloysius Ryan stood firm, buying stock when he could (possibly through options and hidden holding companies so the shorts could not see what he had done). He did this until he declared one day in 1920 that he owned 105 percent of the company and the shorts could settle with him on his terms.
His terms were a price so high that it would bankrupt broker dealers who had stood as intermediaries between the stock exchange and shorts.
Well to put it bluntly the financial market and regulators defended their own. The story is told here and here and here and here in the New York Times – and the amounts of money involved were monstrous for the time. Eventually the New York Stock Exchange –with the threat of criminal proceedings – arbitrarily determined a price to settle the short positions. The shorts even got an officially sanctioned “protective committee”.
That price was way below the top price that Ryan paid – but far more than intrinsic value. The shorts – well – except those that shorted right at the end – lost money. Ryan wound up paying too much the motor car company which was slowly declining anyway. As he now owned 100 percent of Stutz his debts got intertwined with the car company and both he and the car company went bust. Some family members got a little out but only by suing other family members. The only winners were ordinary longs of Stutz who sold along the way – or even at the final settlement price.
As you might have guessed this looks horribly familiar. Porsche is now firmly in control of Volkswagen – and they did it with non-standard cash settled options and other things they argue that they did not need to disclose. It looks and smells like market manipulation – and Volkswagen – General Motors for Europe – may be - depending on the time of day - the biggest company in the world by market cap. [Yes – its market cap is higher than Microsoft, Exxon or PetroChina.] This is the short-squeeze from hell – the first short-squeeze to infinity since the Stutz corner…
Now I think Porsche is one of the great businesses of the world. They have convinced middle aged richer Americans that they are more attractive – or at least more fun – if they drive that particular fast car. (Viagra is for poorer guys…)
And unlike Ferrari (which spends all of its profits on Formula One) Porsche – like Stutz before it – managed to make its mark with near-production cars in events like Le Mans. In the automobile world there are only two car companies with margins near 10 percent – Porsche and Toyota. And they got there different ways.
Porsche (the business) is having a rough time at the moment because if you haven’t noticed the willingness of middle aged American men to drop 100K on a car is somewhat reduced of late. But that might be temporary.
Porsche is a company I want to love – a very fine consumer brands company masquerading as an automobile company. And it is not expensive at the moment – especially if you back out their holding of Volkswagen. Indeed its holding of Volkswagen is worth many times Porsche’s market cap – making Porsche one of the cheapest stocks in the world.
But if history is a guide the Porsche and its controlling family are going to go the way of the Ryans. Their behaviour doesn’t look any more criminal than Alan Aloysius Ryan – and that wound up with him – and his company bankrupt. The system has a knack of defending itself – and the family that controls Porsche and indeed the Porsche company itself is every bit as expendable as Alan A Ryan.
I started this post with a warning – which was that nobody should play any security involved in this story – and I want to stick with this warning. But if you want to play – and it pains me to say this – the only responsible trade is to short Porsche. Porsche – the company – and possibly the car – like Stutz before it – will likely get confined to the dustbin of history.
This is a sad thing – because Porsche – as I have noted – is a nicely run and profitable company. But the appearance of criminal market manipulation will have consequences – and Porsche will pay the piper. My guess – some hapless European investment bank (say Fortis or UBS) is at risk in this – the greatest squeeze since Stutz – and the European court when forced to decide between a mid-ranking German car company and a bank that is integrated with a European government they will chose the bank at Porsche’s expense.
Porsche lovers can however console themselves if they are going to live another 40 years. Someone made some pug-ugly cars under the name of the “New Stutz Company” in the 1960s. Elvis Presley loved his. A small consolation – but the name lives on well after any family legacy is gone.
John Hempton
PS. Having spent some time the other day slamming the New York Times I would thank them for making available – for free no less – the original newspaper articles about the Stutz Corner.
, con acclusa la morale merikana http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
The Stutz Motor Car Company
There was once a fine American sports car company called Stutz. It made beautiful – even legendary cars. The cars had a reputation for dependability, reliability and punishing speed. I know they look antique – but these were really quick for their day – and they won big races like Indianapolis and the Le Mans 24 hour race. Le Mans (at least) is an event that Porsche likes to win. Here is their 1913 Stutz Bearcat – a car that was modified, overpowered etc and won races into the mid 1920s.
Anyway Stutz was controlled by Alan Aloysius Ryan through family holdings. For reasons mostly to do with improved mass production by competitors the company found itself under pressure. Short sellers could smell blood. And they shorted the stock. And shorted some more.
Through this Alan Aloysius Ryan stood firm, buying stock when he could (possibly through options and hidden holding companies so the shorts could not see what he had done). He did this until he declared one day in 1920 that he owned 105 percent of the company and the shorts could settle with him on his terms.
His terms were a price so high that it would bankrupt broker dealers who had stood as intermediaries between the stock exchange and shorts.
Well to put it bluntly the financial market and regulators defended their own. The story is told here and here and here and here in the New York Times – and the amounts of money involved were monstrous for the time. Eventually the New York Stock Exchange –with the threat of criminal proceedings – arbitrarily determined a price to settle the short positions. The shorts even got an officially sanctioned “protective committee”.
That price was way below the top price that Ryan paid – but far more than intrinsic value. The shorts – well – except those that shorted right at the end – lost money. Ryan wound up paying too much the motor car company which was slowly declining anyway. As he now owned 100 percent of Stutz his debts got intertwined with the car company and both he and the car company went bust. Some family members got a little out but only by suing other family members. The only winners were ordinary longs of Stutz who sold along the way – or even at the final settlement price.
As you might have guessed this looks horribly familiar. Porsche is now firmly in control of Volkswagen – and they did it with non-standard cash settled options and other things they argue that they did not need to disclose. It looks and smells like market manipulation – and Volkswagen – General Motors for Europe – may be - depending on the time of day - the biggest company in the world by market cap. [Yes – its market cap is higher than Microsoft, Exxon or PetroChina.] This is the short-squeeze from hell – the first short-squeeze to infinity since the Stutz corner…
Now I think Porsche is one of the great businesses of the world. They have convinced middle aged richer Americans that they are more attractive – or at least more fun – if they drive that particular fast car. (Viagra is for poorer guys…)
And unlike Ferrari (which spends all of its profits on Formula One) Porsche – like Stutz before it – managed to make its mark with near-production cars in events like Le Mans. In the automobile world there are only two car companies with margins near 10 percent – Porsche and Toyota. And they got there different ways.
Porsche (the business) is having a rough time at the moment because if you haven’t noticed the willingness of middle aged American men to drop 100K on a car is somewhat reduced of late. But that might be temporary.
Porsche is a company I want to love – a very fine consumer brands company masquerading as an automobile company. And it is not expensive at the moment – especially if you back out their holding of Volkswagen. Indeed its holding of Volkswagen is worth many times Porsche’s market cap – making Porsche one of the cheapest stocks in the world.
But if history is a guide the Porsche and its controlling family are going to go the way of the Ryans. Their behaviour doesn’t look any more criminal than Alan Aloysius Ryan – and that wound up with him – and his company bankrupt. The system has a knack of defending itself – and the family that controls Porsche and indeed the Porsche company itself is every bit as expendable as Alan A Ryan.
I started this post with a warning – which was that nobody should play any security involved in this story – and I want to stick with this warning. But if you want to play – and it pains me to say this – the only responsible trade is to short Porsche. Porsche – the company – and possibly the car – like Stutz before it – will likely get confined to the dustbin of history.
This is a sad thing – because Porsche – as I have noted – is a nicely run and profitable company. But the appearance of criminal market manipulation will have consequences – and Porsche will pay the piper. My guess – some hapless European investment bank (say Fortis or UBS) is at risk in this – the greatest squeeze since Stutz – and the European court when forced to decide between a mid-ranking German car company and a bank that is integrated with a European government they will chose the bank at Porsche’s expense.
Porsche lovers can however console themselves if they are going to live another 40 years. Someone made some pug-ugly cars under the name of the “New Stutz Company” in the 1960s. Elvis Presley loved his. A small consolation – but the name lives on well after any family legacy is gone.
John Hempton
PS. Having spent some time the other day slamming the New York Times I would thank them for making available – for free no less – the original newspaper articles about the Stutz Corner.
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
Porsche makes €6.8bn from VW trades
By Daniel Schäfer in Frankfurt
Published: November 7 2008 19:24 | Last updated: November 7 2008 19:24
Porsche on Friday fuelled the controversy over its stake building at rival Volkswagen by revealing it had earned eight times as much from its VW option trades than from actually selling cars.
The company said it made €6.83bn ($8.7bn) from trading in VW options, plus another €1bn from the rising value of its Volkswagen stake, in the fiscal year that ended in July.
This helped Porsche to increase its pre-tax profit by 46 per cent to €8.57bn, even exceeding the company’s revenues.
Analysts dubbed Porsche a “hedge fund”, and even one of the most successful ones in the world, at a time when other carmakers are struggling with a sharp downturn.
“If they now increase their stake [in VW] to more than 50 per cent and cash in the remaining 25 per cent of the options, they would make hedge funds and banks pay for the whole takeover,” said Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Credit Suisse.
The extraordinary gains reaped from VW options trades caused another onslaught from investors.
Klaus Kaldemorgen, head of DWS, one of Germany’s largest institutional investors, alleged that Porsche had used massive information asymmetries at the expense of other investors.
However, Porsche denies any wrongdoing and blames short sellers for the massive VW share price surge in recent months.
“We vehemently reject the accusation of share price manipulation,” Porsche said in a statement last week.
Last month, VW’s shares rocketed after Porsche unexpectedly disclosed that through the use of derivatives it had increased its stake in VW from 35 to 74.1 per cent, prompting Bafin, Germany’s financial regulator, to launch a formal investigation into possible market manipulation.
But analysts blamed Bafin for allowing Porsche’s use of options to secure secretly a dominating stake in VW.
Investment bankers said Bafin felt little appetite for pursuing an investigation of Porsche as it lacked political support for such a move.
The market turmoil stirred by VW’s ballooning share price did not cause any political backlash within Germany.
However, Wendelin Wiedeking, Porsche’s chief executive, might intensify the debate about executives’ pay in Germany. He is believed to have earned about €80m last year. This would make him one of the highest paid executives in the world.
Porsche did not want to comment on Mr Wiedeking’s income.
However, car industry insiders said other executives in the industry were “not amused” about his pay, as it gave easy ammunition to the trade unions for a general assault on greedy managers.
By Daniel Schäfer in Frankfurt
Published: November 7 2008 19:24 | Last updated: November 7 2008 19:24
Porsche on Friday fuelled the controversy over its stake building at rival Volkswagen by revealing it had earned eight times as much from its VW option trades than from actually selling cars.
The company said it made €6.83bn ($8.7bn) from trading in VW options, plus another €1bn from the rising value of its Volkswagen stake, in the fiscal year that ended in July.
This helped Porsche to increase its pre-tax profit by 46 per cent to €8.57bn, even exceeding the company’s revenues.
Analysts dubbed Porsche a “hedge fund”, and even one of the most successful ones in the world, at a time when other carmakers are struggling with a sharp downturn.
“If they now increase their stake [in VW] to more than 50 per cent and cash in the remaining 25 per cent of the options, they would make hedge funds and banks pay for the whole takeover,” said Arndt Ellinghorst, analyst at Credit Suisse.
The extraordinary gains reaped from VW options trades caused another onslaught from investors.
Klaus Kaldemorgen, head of DWS, one of Germany’s largest institutional investors, alleged that Porsche had used massive information asymmetries at the expense of other investors.
However, Porsche denies any wrongdoing and blames short sellers for the massive VW share price surge in recent months.
“We vehemently reject the accusation of share price manipulation,” Porsche said in a statement last week.
Last month, VW’s shares rocketed after Porsche unexpectedly disclosed that through the use of derivatives it had increased its stake in VW from 35 to 74.1 per cent, prompting Bafin, Germany’s financial regulator, to launch a formal investigation into possible market manipulation.
But analysts blamed Bafin for allowing Porsche’s use of options to secure secretly a dominating stake in VW.
Investment bankers said Bafin felt little appetite for pursuing an investigation of Porsche as it lacked political support for such a move.
The market turmoil stirred by VW’s ballooning share price did not cause any political backlash within Germany.
However, Wendelin Wiedeking, Porsche’s chief executive, might intensify the debate about executives’ pay in Germany. He is believed to have earned about €80m last year. This would make him one of the highest paid executives in the world.
Porsche did not want to comment on Mr Wiedeking’s income.
However, car industry insiders said other executives in the industry were “not amused” about his pay, as it gave easy ammunition to the trade unions for a general assault on greedy managers.
generali1984
Forumer storico
Vero tra un po uscirà che su sta posizione al ribasso che per me era ed è giusta alcuni hedge funds son saltati in aria......
comunque è assurdo che volkwagen valga quasi 100 miliardi di eur ossia capitalizza come tutte le altre società europee del settore messe insieme, che porsche se la opi può darsi ma mi piacerebbe saper dove trova i soldi visto che dovrebbe tirar fuori non meno di 60 miliardi d'euro che non ha chi la finanzia? le banche dubito non si prestan soldi tra di loro figuriamoci se li dan fuori.... forse carta contro carta.
Ciaoooooooo
a distanza di tanto tempo possiamo dire che qualche Hedge ci saltò
e che qualcuno di più fisico ci lasciò la vita suicidandosi
e oggi che il titolo è tornato a 120 possiamo dire che son state vite e soldi bruciati male
se avessero avuto posizioni di lungo e fossero rimasti
fermi avrebbero nel peggiore dei casi raddoppiato il capitale
abbiamo anche avuto la risposta al dubbio di Killer e
sappiamo come porche ha "trovato" i soldi per smanettare
torno nel mio limbo che ancora sono in loss e non
ho il diritto di scrivere