Egitto 6.875% 30.04.2040 ISIN XS0505478684
- Creatore Discussione pietro17elettra
- Data di Inizio
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
Transcript of IMF Press Briefing
Good morning and welcome to this press briefing, both to those here in the room and those of you joining us online. My name is Julie Kozak. I am the director of the IMF's Communications Department. This briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. this morning.
www.imf.org
Sull'Egitto, lasciatemi fare un passo indietro e darvi una panoramica, poi passerò alle domande specifiche. Penso che, come molti di voi sanno, l’economia egiziana si trova ad affrontare sfide macroeconomiche significative che sono diventate più complesse da gestire a causa del recente conflitto a Gaza. Stiamo discutendo con le autorità su una serie di politiche che potrebbero supportare il completamento della prima e della seconda revisione nell’ambito del FEP. Questo forte impegno con le autorità ha contribuito a realizzare importanti progressi nelle discussioni che proseguiranno nelle prossime settimane per rendere operative le principali priorità politiche. Ciò include la necessità di inasprire la politica monetaria e fiscale, insieme a un sistema di tasso di cambio flessibile, a sostegno dell’impegno dell’autorità di ridurre l’inflazione e di passare gradualmente a un regime di inflation targeting. L’Egitto è uno dei paesi che è stato colpito dal recente conflitto, compreso il potenziale impatto sulle entrate del turismo. Pertanto, nell’ambito di queste discussioni, è chiaro che ulteriori finanziamenti saranno fondamentali per garantire il successo nell’attuazione del pacchetto politico per l’Egitto. Le discussioni sull'esatta entità del finanziamento fanno parte delle discussioni in corso che lo staff del FMI ha con le autorità egiziane.
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demox000
Forumer attivo
bloomberg.com
Mirette Magdy
~3 minuti
JPMorgan Chase & Co. will exclude Egypt from local-currency bond indexes tracked by billions of dollars worth of emerging market funds, underscoring the pressure on the country to resolve dire shortages of foreign exchange.
The North African nation will be cut from JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, a suite of indexes tracked by more than $200 billion of funds, on Jan. 31. It will also be removed from a group of indexes known as ELMI+ on March 29, the US bank said in a report viewed by Bloomberg.
“Based on investors’ feedback, the FX convertibility issues have persisted,” JPMorgan said. It added these have made it difficult for investors to replicate the indexes.
Cash-Strapped Egypt Eyes Expanded IMF Loan Now Election Is Over
Egypt is reeling from its worst economic crisis in decades and deep shortages of dollars that are roiling businesses in the nation of 105 million. JPMorgan placed it on “index watch” — a signal it may be excluded — in September.
Egypt has a weight of roughly 0.6% in the GBI-EM Global Diversified Index. Other countries include China, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
MIDEAST INSIGHT: From War to Real Estate — 5 Questions for 2024
“This will limit the recovery in portfolio inflow going forward, even after any further pound devaluation or expansion of the IMF program,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC. “It will increase the external funding challenges, even though the government is looking to increase FDI inflows to boost capital inflows.”
While the pound’s official rate is 30.9 per dollar, it trades around 54 on the black market.
Authorities reached a deal with the International Monetary Fund on a $3 billion rescue program more than a year ago, and they are negotiating now increasing the size of the loan, little of which has been disbursed.
The IMF has waited to see if authorities would allow greater flexibility in the exchange rate and make good on other promises before completing delayed reviews and handing over more funds.
Officials, including Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and central bank governor Hassan Abdalla, held meetings this week with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. She said on Wednesday the fund “remains a strong partner to Egypt in these difficult times.”
The officials also met US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
JPMorgan Cuts Egypt From Key Bond Indexes as FX (EGP USD) Shortages Mount
Mirette Magdy
~3 minuti
JPMorgan Chase & Co. will exclude Egypt from local-currency bond indexes tracked by billions of dollars worth of emerging market funds, underscoring the pressure on the country to resolve dire shortages of foreign exchange.
The North African nation will be cut from JPMorgan’s Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets, a suite of indexes tracked by more than $200 billion of funds, on Jan. 31. It will also be removed from a group of indexes known as ELMI+ on March 29, the US bank said in a report viewed by Bloomberg.
“Based on investors’ feedback, the FX convertibility issues have persisted,” JPMorgan said. It added these have made it difficult for investors to replicate the indexes.
Cash-Strapped Egypt Eyes Expanded IMF Loan Now Election Is Over
Egypt is reeling from its worst economic crisis in decades and deep shortages of dollars that are roiling businesses in the nation of 105 million. JPMorgan placed it on “index watch” — a signal it may be excluded — in September.
Egypt has a weight of roughly 0.6% in the GBI-EM Global Diversified Index. Other countries include China, Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa.
MIDEAST INSIGHT: From War to Real Estate — 5 Questions for 2024
“This will limit the recovery in portfolio inflow going forward, even after any further pound devaluation or expansion of the IMF program,” said Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank PJSC. “It will increase the external funding challenges, even though the government is looking to increase FDI inflows to boost capital inflows.”
Three Devaluations
Egypt has devalued its currency three times since early 2022, leading the pound to lose half its value against the dollar. But the scarcity of hard currency is still severe.While the pound’s official rate is 30.9 per dollar, it trades around 54 on the black market.
Authorities reached a deal with the International Monetary Fund on a $3 billion rescue program more than a year ago, and they are negotiating now increasing the size of the loan, little of which has been disbursed.
The IMF has waited to see if authorities would allow greater flexibility in the exchange rate and make good on other promises before completing delayed reviews and handing over more funds.
Officials, including Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and central bank governor Hassan Abdalla, held meetings this week with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva. She said on Wednesday the fund “remains a strong partner to Egypt in these difficult times.”
The officials also met US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
pietro17elettra
Nonno pensionato
UPDATE 1-Egypt's Suez Canal revenues down 40% due to Houthi attacks
Oggi 00:23 - RSF
(Updates with details, background in paragraphs 2-8)
CAIRO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Dollar revenues from Egypt's Suez Canal are down 40% from the beginning of the year compared to 2023, canal authority head Osama Rabie said on Thursday, after attacks on ships by Yemen's Houthis caused major shippers to divert away from the route.
Ship traffic was down 30% in the period between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11 compared to a year prior, Rabie said, speaking on a late night talk show.
The number of vessels to pass through the Suez Canal dropped to 544 so far this year, from 777 in the equivalent period of 2023, he said.
The Suez Canal is a key source of scarce foreign currency for Egypt, and authorities have been trying hard to boost revenues in recent years, including through an expansion of the canal in 2015. A further expansion is under way.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea for weeks to show support for Palestinian militant group Hamas in its fight against Israel.
Many commercial shippers have diverted vessels to other routes. The United States announced last month a new international mission to patrol the Red Sea and deter attacks.
Rabie said only ships that had to proceed promptly with their journey had diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, and that others were waiting for the situation to stabilise.
The security concern to shippers could not be overcome with discounts or other incentives offered by the canal, he said.
"A very large portion of the goods will return (to the Canal) once this matter is finished," he said, in reference to the Houthi attacks.
(Reporting by Nafisa Eltahir; Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Tom Hogue)
(([email protected]
)
Oggi 00:23 - RSF
(Updates with details, background in paragraphs 2-8)
CAIRO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Dollar revenues from Egypt's Suez Canal are down 40% from the beginning of the year compared to 2023, canal authority head Osama Rabie said on Thursday, after attacks on ships by Yemen's Houthis caused major shippers to divert away from the route.
Ship traffic was down 30% in the period between Jan. 1 and Jan. 11 compared to a year prior, Rabie said, speaking on a late night talk show.
The number of vessels to pass through the Suez Canal dropped to 544 so far this year, from 777 in the equivalent period of 2023, he said.
The Suez Canal is a key source of scarce foreign currency for Egypt, and authorities have been trying hard to boost revenues in recent years, including through an expansion of the canal in 2015. A further expansion is under way.
Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have been attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea for weeks to show support for Palestinian militant group Hamas in its fight against Israel.
Many commercial shippers have diverted vessels to other routes. The United States announced last month a new international mission to patrol the Red Sea and deter attacks.
Rabie said only ships that had to proceed promptly with their journey had diverted around the Cape of Good Hope, and that others were waiting for the situation to stabilise.
The security concern to shippers could not be overcome with discounts or other incentives offered by the canal, he said.
"A very large portion of the goods will return (to the Canal) once this matter is finished," he said, in reference to the Houthi attacks.
(Reporting by Nafisa Eltahir; Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Tom Hogue)
(([email protected]
)
pietro17elettra
Nonno pensionato
ANALYSIS-Global debt rush sparks hope for strained developing countries
Oggi 13:10 - RSF
*
Falling borrowing costs have sparked deluge of debt issuance
*
Six emerging economies could each issue over $10 bln this year
*
Analysts hope some key countries can regain market access
By Marc Jones
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A $30 billion gush of debt issuance by developing countries since the start of the year is sparking hope that some of the more pressed emerging market nations might be able to regain market access in 2024.
Recent falls in global interest rates combined with a relatively lean couple of years for EM borrowers has seen the usual January parade of governments embarking on their funding rounds turn into something of a frenzy.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has already issued $12 billion of dollar-denominated bonds and the world's largest EM borrower, Mexico, scored its biggest ever debt sale at a punchy $7.5 billion.
Poland, Indonesia and Hungary have all been in the market too while companies have been busy flogging nearly $20 billion of their own debt, taking overall EM issuance past the $50 billion mark.
The eagerness to frontload issuance highlights uncertainty over how fast and furiously the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and their peers will cut interest rates, and also sets the stage for some big year-end numbers.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate almost $165 billion of EM sovereign debt will be issued this year, roughly 20% - or $30 billion - more than in 2023.
Apart from Saudi Arabia, at least five other countries are each expected to issue at least $10 billion, namely Indonesia, Poland, Turkey, Israel and Mexico, with the latter potentially reaching $18 billion.
While the combined total will be well below 2020's COVID-era record of $234 billion, the potential $125 billion just from 'investment grade'-rated EM nations would be the second highest in history.
"Calmer markets are always a good time for these countries to come and issue debt" said Victoria Courmes an emerging market portfolio manager at investment firm GMO.
"With U.S. rates (bond yields) now lower there is obviously an opportunity for them to do that and they will do more as rates come down even further."
Though EMs are having to compete with richer governments for buyers, demand for their debt appears strong so far on hopes that it could be a good year to be invested in higher-yielding developing world bonds.
Mexico could have sold as much as $21 billion last week while Saudi could have issued as much as $30 billion their order books showed.
DIVIDE TO BE CONQUERED?
Beyond the impressive numbers, the question is whether better market conditions will allow more stretched developing countries, that also have bond repayments coming due, to regain market access.
Barely any sub-Saharan African countries or poorer ones in Asia and Latin America have been able to borrow on international markets since the pandemic, leaving them reliant on their own reserves or help from the IMF.
But in many cases, their bond spreads - or the premium investors demand to buy their bonds rather than those of the United States - have improved substantially over the last 6-12 months.
The prime contenders to test the market's risk threshold and appetite for debt yielding 10% are Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and El Salvador, say analysts at Morgan Stanley.
"While 10% would be expensive (for borrowing countries) versus history, alternative funding options are not always there," they said in a note this week. "For all, we think it would be credit positive if they are able to issue."
Countries need to be able to borrow at manageable interest rates - traditionally judged to be below 10% at a bare minimum - to avoid the kinds of crises suffered by Zambia and Sri Lanka in recent years.
Kenya has a $2 billion bond maturing in June which makes it a potential test case if market conditions remain conducive.
Egypt is seeking additional IMF support as it also looks to refinance roughly $25 billion of external debt this year, with almost 75% of investors in a recent Citi poll viewing it as a major default risk in the next couple of years.
Abdrn portfolio manager Viktor Szabo said he thought the market was "not there yet" for the riskier countries.
But with the all-important ten-year U.S. bond yield
below 4% again despite firmer-than-expected inflation figures on Thursday there could be a chink of light.
(news)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
(([email protected]; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters Messaging: [email protected] Twitter @marcjonesrtrs))
Oggi 13:10 - RSF
*
Falling borrowing costs have sparked deluge of debt issuance
*
Six emerging economies could each issue over $10 bln this year
*
Analysts hope some key countries can regain market access
By Marc Jones
LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - A $30 billion gush of debt issuance by developing countries since the start of the year is sparking hope that some of the more pressed emerging market nations might be able to regain market access in 2024.
Recent falls in global interest rates combined with a relatively lean couple of years for EM borrowers has seen the usual January parade of governments embarking on their funding rounds turn into something of a frenzy.
Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has already issued $12 billion of dollar-denominated bonds and the world's largest EM borrower, Mexico, scored its biggest ever debt sale at a punchy $7.5 billion.
Poland, Indonesia and Hungary have all been in the market too while companies have been busy flogging nearly $20 billion of their own debt, taking overall EM issuance past the $50 billion mark.
The eagerness to frontload issuance highlights uncertainty over how fast and furiously the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and their peers will cut interest rates, and also sets the stage for some big year-end numbers.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley estimate almost $165 billion of EM sovereign debt will be issued this year, roughly 20% - or $30 billion - more than in 2023.
Apart from Saudi Arabia, at least five other countries are each expected to issue at least $10 billion, namely Indonesia, Poland, Turkey, Israel and Mexico, with the latter potentially reaching $18 billion.
While the combined total will be well below 2020's COVID-era record of $234 billion, the potential $125 billion just from 'investment grade'-rated EM nations would be the second highest in history.
"Calmer markets are always a good time for these countries to come and issue debt" said Victoria Courmes an emerging market portfolio manager at investment firm GMO.
"With U.S. rates (bond yields) now lower there is obviously an opportunity for them to do that and they will do more as rates come down even further."
Though EMs are having to compete with richer governments for buyers, demand for their debt appears strong so far on hopes that it could be a good year to be invested in higher-yielding developing world bonds.
Mexico could have sold as much as $21 billion last week while Saudi could have issued as much as $30 billion their order books showed.
DIVIDE TO BE CONQUERED?
Beyond the impressive numbers, the question is whether better market conditions will allow more stretched developing countries, that also have bond repayments coming due, to regain market access.
Barely any sub-Saharan African countries or poorer ones in Asia and Latin America have been able to borrow on international markets since the pandemic, leaving them reliant on their own reserves or help from the IMF.
But in many cases, their bond spreads - or the premium investors demand to buy their bonds rather than those of the United States - have improved substantially over the last 6-12 months.
The prime contenders to test the market's risk threshold and appetite for debt yielding 10% are Angola, Kenya, Nigeria and El Salvador, say analysts at Morgan Stanley.
"While 10% would be expensive (for borrowing countries) versus history, alternative funding options are not always there," they said in a note this week. "For all, we think it would be credit positive if they are able to issue."
Countries need to be able to borrow at manageable interest rates - traditionally judged to be below 10% at a bare minimum - to avoid the kinds of crises suffered by Zambia and Sri Lanka in recent years.
Kenya has a $2 billion bond maturing in June which makes it a potential test case if market conditions remain conducive.
Egypt is seeking additional IMF support as it also looks to refinance roughly $25 billion of external debt this year, with almost 75% of investors in a recent Citi poll viewing it as a major default risk in the next couple of years.
Abdrn portfolio manager Viktor Szabo said he thought the market was "not there yet" for the riskier countries.
But with the all-important ten-year U.S. bond yield
below 4% again despite firmer-than-expected inflation figures on Thursday there could be a chink of light.
(news)
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Additional reporting by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
(([email protected]; +44 (0)20 7513 4042; Reuters Messaging: [email protected] Twitter @marcjonesrtrs))
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
JP Morgan to exclude Egypt from emerging market gov't bond index by end of January
In an official release, JPMorgan stated, "Egypt has been under index surveillance since September 21, 2023, due to issues related to reported difficulties in essential foreign currency convertibility by concerned investors."
www.egypttoday.com
IMF Chief, US Secretary pledge support for Egyptian economy amidst challenging times
During the meeting, Secretary Yellen underscored the unwavering support of the United States for Egypt and its ongoing economic reform program
www.egypttoday.com
demox000
Forumer attivo
Egypt Grapples With Impact of Red Sea Hits on Suez Canal Revenue
Egypt pushed ahead with an increase in transit fees through the Suez Canal this week, as a need for foreign currency trumped a fall in maritime traffic due to Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
www.bloomberg.com