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Bernanke warns against reading wrong yield curve signal

Distortions mean an inversion does not necessarily point to recession, says former Fed chief



It would be a mistake to think that the unexpected flattening of the US yield curve signals a looming recession, Ben Bernanke, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve has warned. Mr Bernanke’s comments come as Fed officials under Jay Powell debate the significance of the narrowing gap between short- and long-term bond yields — a measure of the yield curve. An inversion of the curve, where short-dated interest rates rise above longer-dated rates, is seen as a warning sign for recession, having preceded every economic downturn of the past 50 years — but some officials believe it has lost its signalling power because of market distortions caused by central banks. “Historically the inversion of the yield curve has been a good [sign] of economic downturns [but] this time it may not,” because the normal market signals have been distorted by, “regulatory changes and quantitative easing in other jurisdictions”, he said, speaking with former treasury secretaries Hank Paulson and Timothy Geithner at an event to discuss lessons from the 2008 financial crisis...


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